MLSOFT will like this one but I'd still take it with a grain of salt unless it gets some big play in the coming week or two. Apparently from LG's thread:

Posted by: JimWillieCB
In reply to: LG who wrote msg# 1770 Date:10/24/2002 8:53:29 PM
Post #of 1804

POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE INSIDE NEWS -- $170B JPM FRAUD
the same guy Joe in my apartment complex spoke with me again tonight about
inside explosive news about a massive accounting fraud by JPMorgan

this is a true account of a conversation that took place this early evening
in my sports club, between me and a friend

I pressed him for veracity of the source, like where he works
Joe said his friend Frank is an old college friend, whom he is in contact
with 1-2 times per week
he said Frank works in the "same general business as JPMorgan"
I asked Citibank? no.. Morgan Stanley? no.. Goldman Sachs? no.. a major
bank? no
Joe said "no, officially it is a govt business, but they are deeply involved
in the mortgage finance business"
I asked FannyMae? and he smiled and said "cannot say" while nodding
so either Fanny or Freddie, I figure
word is flying around the NYC finance houses about this, impossible to
contain, with investigations widening weekly

Frank tells him the noose is tightening bigtime on JPMorgan and the CFO will
be doing jailtime by next year... the US Attorney General and NY Atty Genl
are each well along in the investigation of $170 billion in improperly
reported Q3 interest payments on three big loans...
WorldCom, Argentina, Russia

they all went bad, but JPM reported them as "performing loans" with
fraudulent intent... the AG's are busy now "closing the dozen doors" that
will demonstrate fraud and criminal intent... they want to be certain that
JPM did not simply transfer the loans over to the London office or some thin
offshore subsidiary... they are making progress eliminating these
possibilities... the critical first criminal step was not listing these
loans as "non-performing"

the misstatement makes WorldCom's $4B in improper statement look, well,
pretty effing tiny... I asked about the impact to earnings, and Joe told me
he heard around $60-70 billion in losses

I asked about why this is not out in the news, in the open... Joe said AG's
must shut the doors, tighten the nose, be certain of the criminal actions

I asked about timing... Joe was told by Frank at FannyMae? that the
prosecution steps begin in the first December week... I asked "around Pearl
Harbor Day?"... he laughed, saying JPM is going to jail and this will blow
wide open, that JPM is dead in the water... Frank claims actual revelation
to the public and news media will take place around Christmas or immediately
afterwards

I asked how we can observe definitive confirming signals from afar... Joe
said "mass resignations, which have begun, but which will pick up in a big
way"

Joe works in an international industrial pump/value company, and fully
trusts his friend Frank in NYCity... back in July, I mentioned this Frank as
confirming almost daily shipments by truck of Federal Reserve Gold out of
the NYCity site, for the purpose of satisfying JPMorgan gold sales

so there you have it, MASSIVE $170B FRAUD CONCEALING $60B IN LOSSES, which
will break within 75 days!!!

we will see
Joe said "100% certain this is unfolding, going to be death for JPMorgan,
absolute death, with numerous indictments coming down, starting with that
CFO"

too big to fail?
how about too big to bail?
certainly too big to protect from prosecution
Elliot Spitzer will dog them for sure
dunno about AttyGenl Ashcroft

gold should get a little lift by Christmas, eh
and we havent touched on Brazil yet
/ jim

p.s. this is no joke

This is the biggest problem for the homebuilders:

And know this : U.S. SEPT END-MONTH INVENTORY HIGHEST SINCE AUG'96 (342,000
UNITS)

If the supply grows, homebuilders are in trouble.

Homebuilders (KBH, TOL) down on that great Housing Report. Don't think the high level of supply helps them. Although like Trainguy I am perplexed as to a 90+% rise in NE?

BMC a little light on revenue as well as not discussing revenue guidance in press release. This CC should be interesting.

Important to see what ELX says on the CC re: 03 revs. Expectations are $386M. If they bring this guidance down they should go up another 2 or 3 points tomorrow like KLAC did

Still think cutting costs is not rewarded near as much as increasing revenue (although you have to do both - AMZN a good example of increasig revenue but still losing too much money - proforma helps).

Short more KLAC at 34.41 - I hope the SOX corrects now.

Is this really the infamous Mark Johnson?

Sounds like he's more physically fit these days.

OK, OK. Believe it or not, I have been more successful long this year than short but every now and then, a bad decision is made like this one.

Hi Zeev, if you have the time please give us your take on the AMGN earnings (disclosure - I'm short from around 49 and of course under water...).

My "short" view is trying to get my arms around:

1) The increase in "Immunex" expenses from a planned $2.4B (July estimate) to $2.9B. It is often "open to intepretation" as to how much of normal AMGN expenses you can "throw in this bucket" and the more you throw in the "one time bucket" the better your earnings will look IMHO.
2) It appears they guided down from the following:
"Looking ahead, the drug maker lowered its 2002 guidance, projecting adjusted earnings-per-share growth in the midteens, compared with its previous raised guidance of mid-20% growth. The company initially expected full-year earnings- per-share growth in the low-20% range."

Those two items confuse me as to the AH rise other than the whole market is flying.

Greatly appreciated if you could provide your brief analysis on their latest earnings and "where you think we go from here in terms of price."

P.S. I'm still shocked with KLACs stock performance after guiding down so much and getting 5 downgrades the next day (and underwater there too).

I'm doing well this year overall but this is putting a damper on my success level and I may capitulate if I'm still swimming upstream in the next couple of days.

Thanks.

Thanks.

Hi Zeev, if you have the time please give us your take on the AMGN earnings (disclosure - I'm short from around 49 and of course under water...).

My "short" view is trying to get my arms around:

1) The increase in "Immunex" expenses from a planned $2.4B (July estimate) to $2.9B. It is often "open to intepretation" as to how much of normal AMGN expenses you can "throw in this bucket" and the more you throw in the "one time bucket" the better your earnings will look IMHO.
2) It appears they guided down from the following:
"Looking ahead, the drug maker lowered its 2002 guidance, projecting adjusted earnings-per-share growth in the midteens, compared with its previous raised guidance of mid-20% growth. The company initially expected full-year earnings- per-share growth in the low-20% range."

Those two items confuse me as to the AH rise other than the whole market is flying.

Greatly appreciated if you could provide your brief analysis on their latest earnings and "where you think we go from here in terms of price."

P.S. I'm still shocked with KLACs stock performance after guiding down so much and getting 5 downgrades the next day (and underwater there too).

I'm doing well this year overall but this is putting a damper on my success level and I may capitulate if I'm still swimming upstream in the next couple of days.

Thanks.

Thanks.

Greedy shorts? Let's play nice now. Perhaps they were already killed on the way to high 30's this morning?

That will change. Soon.

Short KLAC $30.72. Is this a misprint? Didn't we bring guidance down SIGNIFICANTLY LAST NIGHT?

Sounds like you've done well this week - take some well deserved profits and reposition later.

I hope you got in SHORT.

There it is. Nice short MLSOFT.

Glad you hung in there. I still haven't heard guidance but the movement in the stock is telling me it will not be rosy with the plant shutdowns and all. However I want to hear the reduced guidance and I believe it will come.

Here comes KLAC - down, down, down. This happened last quarter as well when they took guidance down. Hoping for the same this quarter.

Yes, I would think good guidance would be in the press release if there was any and revenues looked a little light without that $9M one time gain.

Cost cutting is keeping this big boat afloat. Also looks like CA took down guidance for next qtr rev but kept 2003 yearly guidance? This is kind of buried in the press release.

I am seeing too much exuberance from the bulls to cover my shorts just yet and keep adding although I will admit it has been a painstaking endeavor this time around. Let's see what the rest of the week brings...

Hang in there. I believe the tide is turning.

TXN and ALTR miss - looks like TXN is halted?

QQQ down 30 cents AH

Any comment on VRTS earnings? Looks like they beat by a penny and a little higher in rev but may be taking guidance down. First call for Q4 is .14 and they state .12-.14 but are comvortable with 377M rev number. 03 they just say: "Looking to calendar year 2003, the company expects to follow the seasonal patterns typical of the software industry, with a sequential decline from the fourth quarter, 2002 to the first quarter, 2003, followed by modest improvements in the second half of the year."

Not sure if that's taking guidance down or not. Expectations for 03 were 1.6B. Getting a bump after hours but may be premature.

Shorted QQQ at 23.72 - added more at 23.50 here
Shorted KBH at 49.55 - added more at 49.70 here

Interesting that Philly Fed is being ignored and we have ramped too far too fast.

Expecting a few more bad earnings and guidance to stall this rally.

Good luck to all.

BTK weakening in comparison to the NAZ.

MSFT earnings. For the past three quarters (Jan, Apr, Jul) MSFT stock could be had for $10 less than the price on earnings day within two weeks after earnings announcement.

Hurting a bit, but staying short for a pullback.

SAP just announced. Apparently had very good net income and exceeded all Q3 numbers but completely dropped guidance for the rest of the year.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/021017/tech_sap_1.html

Let's see how this plays out.

Business confidence has been badly damaged by inflated earnings numbers and missed top-line revenue by America's corporations and has nothing to do with the "shorts."

Very strange thought process???

3:38PM Earnings Calendar : Earnings season is now in full swing. Among the major names scheduled to release this evening are INTC, MOT, ADVS, ISSX, LLTC, TER, WM, HDI... Key reports due out tomorrow morning include BA, CAT, KO, F, FBF, HI, JPM, PFE, TRX, UTX... See Briefing.com's Earnings Calendar for a more comprehensive list of scheduled earnings

Looks like all the evening earnings above missed (some significantly) except ISSX and Harley Davidson based on after hours trades.

QQQ down 80 cents off the close.

It takes patience (and cajones) to average into big short positions over the past couple of days especially in the face of all the exuberance but the contrarian play is always the best. Did you see all the talking heads on CNBC today?

My 401K was 100% cash and I put the whole thing into a double short fund at the close.

I am hoping we finally get all this bad news out so I can take a nice long position and hold it for years.

Can you say miss big time? INTC also guides Q4 to $6.5-6.9B lower than expectations of $6.96B.

Shorts should have a field day next couple of days.

Don Sew issues Class I Sell Signal today. Even stronger sell signal if we close at HOD today. Added to shorts as well and will add more at close if we're near HOD.

Sniper May Have Been Caught!

Just heard on the news, they have a good suspect - a MOTOROLA PHONE REPAIRMAN of all things - Astro Van - police scanners - maps of the area - and many guns found in his house.

Not definite but this happened Saturday because I think his girlfriend shot him!!!! or he shot his girlfriend???

Looks like both Unisys and Maytag took guidance down and Unisys seems to be up quite a bit after hours?

Unisys came in at .18 EPS vs .17 expectations
$1.332B rev vs. $1.4B expectation
Full year guidance EPS was .69, now .67 - .70
Full year guidance REV was $5.8B, now $5.5 - 5.6B

UIS up over 10% after hours. We'll see what happens tomorrow but if this is the case, it looks like less than mediocrity is being rewarded.

MLSOFT, my observation pretty much was you can't really glean anything from the past performance of Octobers. I'm not sure what you're saying in your message?

That being said, I have built short positions over the past two days so I'm betting down in the near future. I'm betting that the earnings over the next 2 weeks will be WORSE THAN EXPECTED and IT'S NOT ALL BUILT INTO THE THE CURRENT MARKET LEVELS (NAS 1210). If it's built into the market already or if the earnings pleasantly surprise or even meet without taking down guidance, than I will have to pursue my exit strategy with a loss.

Where are you at these days? I assume net short but I wouldn't mind hearing your current predictions?

Thanks.

Here's the data behind my last post:

NASDAQ STOCK PERFORMANCE IN OCTOBER VS. REST OF YEAR								 
 YEAR	1-Oct	31-Oct	%	1-Jan	31-Dec	%	%/12	Does October Perform Better Than Average Month? 
 2002	1213	?	?	1979	?	?	?	TBD 
 2001	1480	1690	14%	2291	1950	-15%	-1.2%	YES 
 2000	3568	3369	-6%	4131	2470	-40%	-3.4%	NO 
 1999	2736	2966	8%	2208	4069	84%	7.0%	YES 
 1998	1612	1771	10%	1581	2192	39%	3.2%	YES 
 1997	1690	1593	-6%	1280	1570	23%	1.9%	NO 
 1996	1221	1221	0%	1058	1291	22%	1.8%	NO 
 1995	1023	1036	1%	743	1052	42%	3.5%	NO 
 1994	760	777	2%	770	751	-2%	-0.2%	YES 
 1993	763	779	2%	671	776	16%	1.3%	YES 
 1992	578	605	5%	586	676	15%	1.3%	YES 
 

I don't believe the October history tells us too much. From 1992 through 2001 (10 years), October performed better than the rest of the year 6 times and worse 4 times (95, 96, 97, 2000).

For the first 9 months of 2002 NAS is down 41% or about 4.5% per month. October 1, we closed at 1213.72. 4.5% down from there is 1159.

Fair enough and thanks.

Zeev, what % cash are you now? It seems to be around 40% looking at your last few calls but please confirm. I also believe you expect a pullback to around 1150 max in the next few days or week but have you officially "donned the bear suit" or not quite?

Thanks.

Shorted a bunch more stuff at around 1220 NAS ZEEV. Thanks for calling that short term top perfectly.

Shorted QQQ, AZO, AMZN

OT - We haven't seen damage like this DC shooter since Son of Sam back in the 70's (by the way "Summer of Sam" by Spike Lee is a great movie, especially if you grew up in NYC - it's a must see).

Everyone thinks this shooter is a middle aged white man (mid 20s to late 40s)and he drives a white crew like van. Some things we know: he (or she) is a great shot - doesn't seem to miss from far distances; he is very brazen (never seen a sniper / killer kill people day after day after day) - they usually kill one a month or so and take time to carefully plan each kill.

Final comment - I wouldn't be terribly surprised if this person is related to some kind of terrorist group such as Al Qaeda - forget about the big plane crashes and explosions at the super bowl and such - if they start getting us where we live and breathe on a daily basis, that will do serious damage to our psyche and ability to live our lives. That's what they want to do so while it's a definite long shot I wouldn't be surprised and I hope they catch he or she very soon.