Looking for my next Forex trade
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ROFL! They claim they're fixing it but I think they're using a monkey wrench.
S&P Daily Chart
Finally testing that resistance on the chart I posted the other day. Candles are little bitty right here.
When the S&P tanks, so will AU.
Looks like the dollar is finally back in sync again...it goes down as the market goes up, so the dollar will likely increase in value again as the next leg down on the market begins in this area. That should tank the commodity risk pairs like AU and NU nicely.
Man, IHUB is terrible today. Takes forever to post.
Very good, Heavy. Now, just take a deep breath and walk away from the mobile and the computer...LOL!
It'll do what it's supposed to but a watched kettle never boils.
We're dealing with big time frames on these patterns...so they can take a while to kick in. And there's always room for slack in price movement until they do.
No Heavy...this is the final push on AU around this 0.7465 area. This is the Wave 2 push back up on the hourly after it broke the trendline showing a shift in trend.
The sucker is going to tank. You're cutting yourself too short on your entries. You have to give it room to run. Go with light entries, 2% or so, and just let it go. The market will reverse right near this last peak and tank from here.
Patience is a virtue...LOL!
Final push on AU here...time to load the boat on shorts. If you're looking for a spot to add, this is it.
AU Weekly and Daily Elliott Wave Pattern
I hate calling these things ahead of time because they're so rare. But for some reason, AU seems to like them.
They're called expanded flats. Each of the 5 internal waves consists of 3 waves, so you get a total count of 3-3-3-3-3. From everything I can gather, AU is currently in yet another one of these consolidation patterns.
The weekly chart again first showing the previous expanded flat patterns. When they occur in an uptrend, they lead to more highs later. When they occur in a downtrend, they lead to more lows later.
Weekly first showing consistency of patterns and then the daily showing the detailed 3-3-3 count so far.
AU Weekly Chart Revised
After looking at this thing carefully, I've been unable to reconcile the fact that the AU 4 hour chart only shows a simple ABC bear market correction pattern that normally leads to new lows with what I had on the weekly chart...at least until now.
This is another possibility on the weekly chart...an initial Wave 1 up but with a Wave 2 down still coming to make new lows.
This whole series of movements on the AU weekly chart smacks of nothing but consolidation so I'm going with this count for now. Of course, I'll still be out of the trade no later than 0.7050 on the shorts to be sure...but it sure looks a lot more bearish.
AU 4 hour chart first with ABC correction again and then weekly with revised count...
Only because the guys who were behind the dive in the first place finally let off the gas. It's all manipulation. They literally jump from one area to the other. In stocks, they'll move from real estate to energy to transports, etc. In currencies, they'll pick a pair every year or so to either skyrocket or plummet...and they'll just dogpile on the sucker until they decide to take profits and pick on the next kid on the block.
Yep. The news is really just an excuse. What actually happens is that a group of big money boys decided they want to move a pair hard in one direction and no one has any real explanation, so they blame something in the news.
Take the story on oil supply for example. There's still a ton of oversupply in the market...nothing substantial has changed...yet oil has rallied from $26 a barrel to $36 a barrel in a short period of time.
The drop in oil wasn't fundamental...it was just a group of powerful trading institutions who wanted to run it into the ground. The media just comes up with stuff after the fact to explain it.
The biggest headline has been the UK and the "brexit" everybody has been stewing about. I don't know if they'll break away from the Eurozone or not but at least they were smart enough to maintain their own currency regardless. If nothing else, the rumor of leaving has served to weaken the pound considerably without having to pump money into the system like our Fed does to weaken our dollar. So in a way, they've created a new way of monetary easing.
There's a key meeting this week to decide the issue once and for all from what I understand.
LOL! Gonna test your luck again with AU huh? I think it's ready now. GJ finally topped out as well.
China news is NOT good this weekend. Bad news broke Friday after the market closed and the market has been mulling it over all weekend. AU depends heavily on good news out of China, not bad.
There you go Jav...get him good...LOL!
Hey Jav, Simple didn't say anything about Iraqi Dinar...pay him with those...LOL! You can get 1000 of those for less than $1 US.
Took 75.6 pips profit on a couple of trades on the AU gap down and the EA gap up here right at the open. Those gaps will probably retrace quickly. I'll likely add back again later tonight or tomorrow morning.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/nettechs/waves/1539708
GJ 4 Hour Chart
I used the FE target from the daily chart and the FE tool from the 4 hour chart and they line up perfectly below 151. That area is an ideal target as well because it will complete a long term pullback to Box #1 after hitting Box Level #3 above 195 last year. If you recall from trading the boxes, once Box #3 is hit, the result is a pullback to Box #1. So this should be the final move down for a while.
I changed the wave count back to a Wave 4 peak at current levels. That's the one that lines up best with the other charts.
UJ Weekly Chart
While I had time, I went back and finalized the long term count on the weekly UJ chart here.
The current setup shows we've just now hit a Wave 5 bottom in a larger Wave 5 progression. So the dead cat bounce we're seeing now is temporary. At best, we'll retest the neckline in the broken head and shoulders pattern at the peak. After that, UJ is very likely to drop all the way down to the 106 area which is the projected target for the H&S completion. That target also lines up very nicely with the large weekly 38.2 fib retrace of the entire move up.
So basically, the yen crosses might receive a slight bounce in the next week or so but they will tank nicely afterwards to hit new daily lows.
In the near term on the lower time frames, it looks like UJ still has at least one more quick daily low to make before it can set up a recovery bounce back to the neckline.
It's just like anything else, Qui. They can definitely be beneficial but they have to be considered only one item on an entire checklist for trading.
Many different ways to skin the cat...just gotta find the system that works for you and stick with it, even if it fails sometimes.
No, not really Qui. I've used HA candles before and they're good but I prefer to watch the candle patterns on regular candles. Simple is very good with HA candles but it's really just a preference.
ROFL! Aye Aye, Cap'n.
"This is Captain Jerk of the Star Wreck USS Benterprise. Head Engineer Potty, damn the torpedos man...set Twinklers to full stun and Florp engines to maximum power...engage!"
The regular HA candles are pretty straight forward. What you want to see during a trend up are full bodies candles with no wicks on the bottom. And each candle opens up halfway through the previous candle body. Once wicks start appearing or the candles change color, it's a signal the trend is weakening.
Same with bearish candles to the downside...during a trend you want to see full bodies red candles with no wicks on top and each candle opening at the halfway point of the previous candle body.
At the time, I thought we were working on a minor Wave 4 pullback on the 4 hour chart and that a larger Wave 5 down was coming. Just a miscount on my part. I didn't go far enough back in the wave count and I didn't take the weekly chart into consideration.
Feel free to smack my hand with a ruler...LOL! The top down counting method requires watching all the time frames, not just 1 or 2.
AU 4 Hour Chart Update
Just a quick visual of how AU has been behaving when a prior TDI movement showed a trend shift breakdown. The result was one big wave back up and then a retrace back to just beyond the 61.8 fib retrace of the entire 5 wave sequence up.
That would put us back to around 0.7150 on a retrace from current levels based on the current 5 wave sequence...maybe a bit lower.
But since the total pattern is a 5 wave count as well, we could easily be looking at a 61.8 retrace for the entire sequence, which would put us back down to 0.7065, give or take.
The patterns are often different...wedges, channel, etc. But the count in the end has to transpire in 5 waves. Either way, even if the count is wrong, the TDI is exhausted at the top end on the 4 hour and hourly charts...that in itself is enough to warrant a pullback.
Everything is dynamic...always changing and shifting...gotta love it...LOL!
AU Hourly and 15 Minute Charts
This is just showing where we left off Friday. The 15 minute chart shows we stopped at a probable Wave 4 peak with Wave 5 down still to come. After that, we need one more 5 wave series up on the 15 minute to finalize things before we can expect a drop so a slight new high is probably in order.
AU hourly needs a break down from the rising wedge to confirm a trend sentiment shift. Once it does, it will come back up to retest the broken trendline with that same new high before it rolls over and drops.
15 minute first and then hourly...
Nice charting there Jav. I really like having different views and input with analysis from other folks. That's part of what makes this board so great. We can all use different methods to trade and they all have good things to contribute.
Well done!
It's only in a minor 3 right now and it shows 5 waves up completed Qui. While there may be room for another slight move up, it's burned up too much energy on the lower time frames to do much more. It's going to have to pull back to reset for a minor Wave 4.
The 4 hour AU chart shows the green and red lines and the blue volatility band way above 68. The hourly shows the same thing except the blue volatility bands are compressed above 68.
Until those lower time frames reset, the potential just isn't there for a big run from these levels.
On the wave counts, you have to consider that it takes a long time for a solid base to form to substantiate a major rally.
Remember when NU did the same thing on that major run up last time? It made a new breakout high and lots of folks were convinced it was going to the moon. But it was actually a great short opportunity. I posted the chart here for reference. AU is in basically the same shape right now. New highs yes...but no real energy to keep going. That peak on NU at the new high was also a Wave 5 high in a series. But it needed a substantial pullback to set up for higher highs later.
This is why I encourage traders to become students of price action as well as learning any trading system. Markets have certain patterns in everything they do. A breakout to many retail traders means it's a bull...but the market makes slight new highs all the time and then jerks the rug right out from under those same traders. They love to incite panic and run stops and get traders to switch positions.
Now compare the AU hourly and the NU hourly charts below...tell me honestly that you would feel totally comfortable closing out your short positions and going long right now with the indicators exhausted at the top end AND knowing that a 5 wave count just finished up. I'm sure that those retail traders that went long on NU at the top of that last "breakout high" were pretty unhappy when NU collapsed not long afterwards.
Trading is a royal pain in the rear end sometimes...keep entries light and fluffy and be ready to ride them out for a while if needed on a bad entry. All we can do is try to analyze each trade the best we can when we take it. If we're wrong, we're wrong. The biggest problem is that when a trading system doesn't work every single time, traders get frustrated and they start looking around for the next big thing that's gonna nail all the trades for them...that system doesn't exist. I've watched traders on this board and others for years switch from one system to another, only to find frustration every time because they start discarding the good elements from any single trading system each time. Not to toot my own horn, but most of those folks are long gone and I'm still here and making money and retired doing it full time.
If the wave counts aren't working for anyone, then absolutely find something that does work for you. But don't get in the habit of totally discarding anything you've learned just because it doesn't go right 100% of the time. You're going to get into bad trades no matter what you use for trading...it's just the nature of the beast in this game. Heck, if I was that good, I'd go all in on every trade I make and I could turn $1000 into a million dollars in no time...LOL!
Now, with all that said, I could be totally wrong on AU...maybe it's a raging bull and it's not gonna stop till it hits parity or some other such crazy level. I have my limits just like everyone does and once it exceeds my comfort level on the trades, I'll close them out for a loss just like I always do. But until then, I'll ride it out patiently and wait till the market is done with the smoke and mirrors game and take profits and mark it down as another trading lesson learned.
AU and NU hourly charts with comparisons...look closely at the wave counts and the TDI levels at the peaks...
Ok gang, I've decided that those 3 pairs are the ones I'm going to stay focused on. There's more than enough trades just in those pairs to keep me busy a very long time.
Unless I get a request for an annotated chart for another pair, I'm not going to spread myself too thin watching too many pairs. As a matter of fact, I deleted all of my other charts and reworked these charts fresh tonight. We now have many, many months worth of trades in just these 3 pairs.
AU Hourly, 4 Hour, Daily and Weekly Charts
Pretty much the same as I had before. The weekly needs a Wave 4 back (small yellow 4) to finalize a longer term bottom before moving up for a 5th wave push. Even then, that will only be a larger 3rd wave (blue numbers in parentheses).
The daily shows each of the 5 waves comprising the 1,2,3 waves in yellow numbers in that narrow channel on the weekly.
So AU now needs to pull back to roughly the 61.8 retrace of the entire move up from the absolute low to the high we saw today...might still be another slight high but it won't be much. Both the AU 4 hour and the AU hourly also show 5th wave completions.
Hourly, 4 hour, daily, and weekly last...
EA 4 Hour and Weekly Charts
Weekly shows as before...except that it shows that Wave 4 up on a larger scale is in progress. However, the 5th wave up has only just started so it's got a ways to move up before it finally tops.
If you look to the left of the chart on the weekly, you can see a large consolidation zone before that big spike that hit an all time high around 2.11.
We tested the bottom of the zone first and then pulled back. Then EA drove higher to the middle of the zone at the overall 50% fib and has pulled back again.
The next move up should test the top of the zone at the weekly 61.8 fib retrace near 1.75. After that, we should start looking for shorts at the top of the weekly wave 4 area.
4 hour chart shows we finished 5 waves up (minor blue #1 (1) on weekly) and now we've wrapped up 5 waves down (minor blue #2 (2) on weekly).
The 4 hour chart confirms that minor Wave 3 up (in blue) is set to begin. So I'd expect basically nothing but upside until that final 1.75 target is hit at the 61.8 fib. Also, notice the trend line retest on the 4 hour chart I have marked as support.
4 hour chart first, then weekly...
GJ 4 Hour and Daily Charts
Since it's quiet now and the market is closed for the weekend, I'm going through and updating some charts. Starting with the Beast.
I went back through the daily chart and realized that we've already hit a Wave 5 bottom and a 1-2 retrace. It's just now finishing a new minor Wave 1 up (small red #1).
That small red #1 is equal to the 5 wave movement we have on the 4 hour chart. So a nice dip this next week is pretty much in the cards.
So we need to see a small Wave 2 back to form the final bottom (2 of 2). So the likelihood of one more daily low is still pretty good. After that, we need to switch to long positions.
4 hour chart first and then daily...
Always is Heavy. I'm still learning even now. It gets aggravating at times but it's fun nonetheless.
That's one reason I no longer think in dollar terms Heavy...only percentages. Starting out with a small account is discouraging in a lot of ways so traders often try to compensate by entering larger trades than they should.
But if trade entries are kept small, around the 2% level, riding out the swings isn't a problem. I think it was a week or so ago SG mentioned entering an AJ or NJ long and it went against him quite a bit by the next morning. He just patiently waited it out, added later, and eventually rode both of them to nice profits later.
Slow and steady wins the race. I even modified the main Oanda screen on my PC platform years ago to display only pips...no dollars at all. That way, I wouldn't concentrate on anything but percentage gains along the way.
My dad has an old saying from running a very successful business for over 30 years... "Watch the nickels and dimes and the dollars will take care of themselves"
As opposed to nickels and dimes, I only watch percentages...and after several years, the dollars did indeed take care of themselves...LOL!
AU Weekly Chart
Modified the count slightly but it still counts as Wave 3 up so far in a larger Wave 3. So a daily new low probably isn't coming. But it still needs a deep retrace back to 0.7050 or so to set up for the next leg up. That would be the yellow Wave 4 back.
So we would have minor Wave 4 of 2 of 2 to make the final low, wherever it pops up.
After that, longs should be a good play.
Heck Heavy, I'm always early to the party and early to leave...but I have a good time while I'm there...LOL!
This is the way the market works Qui. If you look at the AU chart, it's actually been 7 weeks since the low was made. 7 is a fib number in a series. They needed this final week to set everything up on the currency pairs and the market for what's coming later.
Regardless of what it may appear to be, these types of setups are recipes for disaster for anyone who piles into long positions.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it...LOL!