Feeding village children in Mindanao Philippines and watching my boy and girl grow up.
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You still think Texas is going to get it? I believe it will be Mexico.
Even they are tracking south now.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html#a_topad
I totally agree. There's no chance that Florida will get hit.
We'll see. The projections do seem to be leaning more toward Mexico but it certainly can change every six hours.
"If" it looks as if it will make landfall in Mexico on Monday I believe we could get a selloff in the cane stocks. Hope you're right about all of them being green but there will be some with profits (especially in WEGI) that may want to cash in their chips.
Ah, that's what I like to see, my friend, faith in ECCI despite the CEO's efforts to keep it down, lol.
CASTRIES, St. Lucia - Hurricane Dean barreled across the eastern Caribbean Saturday and took aim at Hispaniola, Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, with forecasters saying it could turn into a monster Category 5 storm within 72 hours.
With sustained winds now at 150 mph, Dean left behind floods, debris and at least three deaths on the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique and Dominica on Friday.
The first hurricane of the Atlantic season, the Category 4 Dean was expected to gain power as it moves across the warm waters of the Caribbean through the weekend. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said its winds could surpass 155 mph as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
By Wednesday, there is a chance Dean could threaten the U.S., though it is expected to lose some of its punch as it travels over the Yucatan.
The immediate danger, however, comes Saturday as the storm passes south of Hispaniola, the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti — both particularly prone to devastating floods.
The hurricane center issued a hurricane warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic early Saturday.
Haitian authorities issued an alert for coastal communities and ordered fishing boats to stay ashore until after the weekend. Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller of Jamaica — where a direct hit is expected Sunday — ordered shelters opened across the island and called for a halt to campaigning for the Aug. 27 elections.
"Let us band together and unite in the threat of this hurricane," Simpson-Miller said.
Earlier Friday, Dean roared across small eastern Caribbean islands.
In tiny St. Lucia, fierce winds tore corrugated metal roofs from dozens of homes and the pediatric ward of a hospital, whose patients had been evacuated hours earlier. Police spokeswoman Tamara Charles said a 62-year-old man was swept away and drowned when he tried to retrieve a cow from a rain-swollen river.
In Dominica, a woman and her 7-year-old son were killed when a rain-soaked hillside gave way and crushed the home where they were sleeping, said Cecil Shillingford, the national disaster coordinator.
French authorities on the adjacent island of Martinique said a 90-year-old man died of an apparent heart attack during the storm but he was alone and already dead when emergency medical personnel arrived and it was unclear whether Dean was a factor.
People in Martinique, St. Lucia and Dominica mostly stayed indoors Friday while Dean's remnants pounded the islands with heavy rain and authorities tried to assess damage.
Many who did venture out said they were surprised the islands seem to have gotten off fairly easy.
"I did not sleep at all last night and was a little worried that the roof of my house would be blown off with all that wind. Thank God it did not," Gwenie Moses said as she checked her small tin-roofed house in Dominica's capital, Roseau.
Dominica's government later reported at least 150 homes were damaged.
In St. Lucia, the storm scattered boulders from the sea onto downtown streets and knocked down trees. With utility poles downed, the power company turned off electricity across the island to prevent people from being electrocuted.
At 5 a.m. EDT, Dean was centered about 660 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 240 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It was moving west at 17 mph. The storm's maximum sustained winds were near 150 mph.
Dominica, which lies north of Martinique, had minor flooding, a few downed fences and trees and battered banana crops, one of the island's main exports.
At Ross University School of Medicine on Dominica, about 80 medical students, mostly from the U.S., and 20 staff and faculty members spent the night watching movies, playing games or sleeping on the floor between desks in a concrete building that was converted into a shelter.
On Martinique, an overseas department of France, many homes lost roofs, leaving people's belongings exposed to driving rain that fell even hours after the brunt of the storm had passed.
"We don't have a roof ... everything is exposed. We tried to save what we could," said Josephine Marcelus in the northern town of Morne Rouge. "We sealed ourselves in one room, praying that the hurricane stops blowing over Martinique."
Nearly 100 percent of Martinique's banana crops and 70 percent of its sugar cane was destroyed in the hurricane, said Christian Estrosi, France's junior minister for overseas territories.
It was too early to tell whether the storm would eventually strike the United States, but officials were gearing up for the possibility.
"It's so far out, but it's not too early to start preparing," said Katherine Cesinger, a spokeswoman for Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
Energy futures rose Friday on news that Dean could hit the Gulf of Mexico, which produces roughly 25 percent of America's oil and 15 percent of its natural gas. Royal Dutch Shell PLC said it would evacuate 275 nonessential personnel from the Gulf, adding to the 188 who left earlier this week before another tropical storm struck Texas.
___
Associated Press writers Ellsworth Carter in Roseau, Dominica; Herve Preval in Fort-de-France, Martinique; and Howard Campbell in Kingston, Jamaica, contributed to this report
I agree, four out of five models show it going into Mexico. Probably have a selloff in the cane stocks on Monday, but if it is overdone on the downside it could create an opportunity as this is still the middle of August.
Which of these companies, if any, benefit from a landfall in Mexico? WEGI seemed to be the best performer Friday but am not sure if they benefit from a Mexican landfall. I had read that BUGS would.
I'm sorry if you take my words as negative but I am trying to be realistic here. I'm not going to sell the shares I own at .02, as I said before I will be a buyer at .015. I am only defending my reasoning as to why I believe the shares will come down there. There is no one on this board that will be happier than I will be if I am wrong, but logic tells me to look at the facts. WEGI moved up this last week because there was no one selling into the Dean buying. ECCI went down this week because "someone" was selling 20 million shares (volume for the week) which was record weekly volume.
In October, 2006 this stock had the same weekly volume and the stock moved from .025 to .09. After that run, the stock slipped back to a new low of .015. I am suggesting that the same amount of money came into the stock this week as in October, 2006 but it was met with shares being dumped on the market. The one element that I don't know is "how many more shares does the CEO have to sell?" If there are no more shares (which I doubt) then the stock may only drift down to .015. If there is another 20 million shares then .015 will be broken. It's all a matter of supply and demand. The supply has increased tremendously, and the demand can only be enhanced by the possibility of revenues (hurricanes being the quickest injection).
The two things that give me hope are (1) the oversold nature of the weekly RSI still at record lows and (2) the possibility that the spicket may be turned off some day soon.
It is if you owned ECCI.
Hurricane Dean, now a major Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, continues to intensify and grow larger in size. Dean pounded Martinique and St. Lucia this morning, and claimed its first victim when a 62-year old man died on St. Lucia while trying to save his cow from raging flood waters.
Dean's eye is now visible on long range radar out of Puerto Rico. Buoy 42059 is in Dean's path, and should be interesting to watch.
We're fairly confident of the 1-2 day forecast, which has Dean headed west to west-northwest over the Central Caribbean, very close to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, then into the Western Caribbean. After that, things become murkier. The latest 12Z runs of the NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS, and HWRF computer models all show Dean hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, and continuing on into the Gulf of Mexico towards a second landfall near or south of the Texas border. The HWRF run is slower, and does not take Dean to the coast at the end of its forecast period. The big outlier is the GFDL model, which now takes Dean northwest into central Louisiana. Which model is correct? The problem is that each model has a different solution for the behavior of an upper-level low pressure system expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Which model should we trust?
In 2006, the official NHC forecast performed better than any of the individual computer forecast models. However, several "consensus" forecasts made using an average of the "big four" computer models (GFDL, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS), slightly outperformed the official forecast at some time periods (Figure 1). The Florida State Super-Ensemble (FSSE), for example, combines the "big four" models on the basis of past performance in an attempt to correct for biases in those models. (The FSSE is owned by a private company, which makes it available to NHC but not the general public). The Florida State Super Ensemble slightly out-performed the official NHC forecast at most forecast times.
The "big four" models are plotted on wunderground.com's computer model page for Dean, (along with the inferior BAMM model, which is plotted since it is always available quickly, and has done well at longer range forecasts in the past). We do not get tracking points for the ECMWF or HWRF models at this point, so you'll have to go the raw plots to see those forecasts. Note that three of the "big four" models performed well in 2006, with the GFDL and GFS performing the best. The UKMET had a very poor showing in the Atlantic in 2006. However, the UKMET was the best-performing model in the Eastern Pacific in 2006, along with the GFDL and BAMM models.
The European Center's model (ECMWF) outperformed the "big four" consensus models for 72, 96, and 120 hours forecasts in the Atlantic. However, the ECMWF model was generally not available in time to be used by forecasters. Efforts are being made to make the ECMWF available in a more timely fashion for the 2007 season, which would be a big help. We also have the new HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research Forecast) model this year. In tests done on a number of hurricanes for past years, the HWRF performed about as well as the GFDL (Figure 2).
Figure 1. Track forecast skill in 2006 of the official forecast and the various models, compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists). Note that many models had a negative skill for their 120 hour (5 day) forecast. The official NHC forecast had about 10% skill at 5 days. Image credit: NHC.
Figure 2. Track errors for 48-hour forecasts from the 2006 version of the GFDL model (black) and the new HWRF model (red). The HWRF model performed better on some hurricane than the GFDL, and worse on others. Overall, the two models had about the same performance on the cases tested. Image credit: Naomi Surgi, NOAA Environmental Modeling Center.
In conclusion, the official NHC forecast outperforms all the individual models, particularly at long ranges. Looking at the individual model plots can be helpful to determine the uncertainty in the forecast, but it's tough to beat the NHC. In the case of Dean, where one model is an outlier from the rest, it is usually better to believe the consensus of the other models.
If you want to look at plots of the individual models, I've written a description of the various models and where to find these plots on our tropical weather page.
Arctic sea ice shrinks to record low
The National Snow and Ice Data Center announced today that Arctic sea ice has just surpassed the previous single-day (absolute minimum) record for the lowest extent ever measured by satellite. Satellite measurements began in 1979. Sea ice extent has fallen below the 2005 record low absolute minimum and is still melting. Sea ice extent is currently tracking at 5.26 million square kilometers (2.02 million square miles), just below the 2005 record absolute minimum of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles). This new record was set a full five weeks before the usual late September minima in ice extent, so truly unprecedented melting is occurring in the Arctic. The most recent images from the North Pole webcam show plenty of open water and rainy conditions at the Pole.
Figure 2. Current extent of the polar sea ice, compared to the normal for this time in August (pink line). Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Chev, I have shares already (unfortunately) and I bought the shares because (1) the stock was at support in the .023 area (2) the weekly RSI was oversold at .35 lowest point ever for this stock (3) the Accumulation/Distribution chart was heading north and (4) I felt we were in the time frame for a major hurricane.
Since that time (3 weeks) the accumulation/distribution chart has fallen off a cliff and I have watched the action of this stock each time it tries to lift it's head and it's ugly as we all know.
Obviously the company has no money and must dump stock to raise money. I am amazed at how much selling there has been on this...over 20 million shares has kept the lid on this stock from moving up. (Although they did allow it to move to .033 one day before opening the spicket full force). I had been patient and waited for the selling to dry up, but it just doesn't seem to go away. So what I am suggesting and fearing is that they will use the hype of this hurricane to unload as many shares as they can at .02 and when the hype is gone then we are left with a stock that has no hype story to move it higher. In that case it can only move lower.
I also see that four of five models show Dean heading into lower Mexico. Something that will not help ECCI.
I'm afraid .015 is in the cards and possibly lower. I didn't feel this way (obviously) when I bought it but I have seen some ugly selling over the last three weeks which suggests the company doesn't have money to pay it's electric bill.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html#a_topad
He's still dumping in the aftermarket. It just traded at .0204. I still say we see .015 trade before .035. I own the stock so don't think I'm bashing, I just see that Dolt has dumped over almost 20 million shares this week and the accumulation/distribution chart (which looked so dang good a few weeks ago) now has a large spike down and looks ugly. I can't imagine how many more shares there could be to dump on the market but I can only hope and pray that 20 million shares is just about enough...and that doesn't mention all the aftermarket shares that were sold.
Good for you. I'll wait for .015.
There has been a seller out there for a couple of weeks on ECCI.
I understand your logic, however, in the past the stock has gone up with the hype of a possible storm. This time no such luck. This stock spikes up in two and three day runs that triple quadruple or more. Unfortunately what TAKI says is probably true. The dilution is so great at this point that the seller just won't let it move. If the bid moves up .002 he hits the bid and knocks it down. I say we see .015 before we see .035. I sure would like to be wrong on this one.
I think you may be right Taki.
I am simply trying to decipher why ECCI which hit .025 on the opening is now down to .21 (down on the day). If Dean hits Texas as a category 5 storm and ECCI is still sitting at .021-.023 then I think this stock has very little chance of rising. I would rather "hope" that the reason the stock is down is because people perceive a Mexican landfall. If people are perceiving a Texas landfall and the stock is STILL down then what hope do you see in this corpse rising from the dead?
Yeah, I'm sitting in Hong Kong watching that storm 200 miles away from me. But no Typhoon warnings in Hong Kong.
Hope you're right, but price action doesn't indicate that to me. Three of five models show landfall in Mexico so could be some selling based on no US landfall spec.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html#a_topad
Three out of five models now show it hitting Mexico which probably accounts for some of the cane stocks selling off (ECCI now down on the day).
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html#a_topad
So as long as one is psychologically prepared for that to happen I wouldn't be a buyer here but on the "disappointment" selling that follows if this stock doesn't move up with Dean.
It's very coincidental that each time it is just about to give a crossover buy signal that selling comes in and knocks it down again. Price action tells me we will be testing .015 after the Dean scare is gone.
Well, from the chart perspective, every time the 10 day ma gets ready to move above the 20 day ma selling comes in and knocks it down again. Perhaps it's a coincidence or perhaps short sellers are watching it. I have been waiting for the 10 day to move above the 20 day to give a buy signal to me but it just won't happen.
The 10 day ma and the 20 day ma are both at .23 today and the stock looks to open there, so today is another chance for the 10 day to pop through the 20 day (a buy signal for me). If it can't do it today with Dean looking to hit Texas as a possible cat 5 then I don't know what can make it happen.
It's interesting that wunderground.com has it as only a cat 2 on Wednesday. Your link never shows it losing power going over land.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad
Dean's likely impact on the Caribbean; Super Typhoon Sepat update
Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:13 PM EDT on August 16, 2007
The Hurricane Hunters made their first penetration of Hurricane Dean this afternoon, and found a strong Category 1 hurricane--100 mph winds, and surface pressure of 974-979 mb. Dean is now a Category 2 hurricane. Once the winds rise to 115 mph, it will be a Category 3 storm--a major hurricane. Wind shear remains near 5 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next five days. Recent satellite loops and reports from the Hurricane Hunters show that an eye has appeared. The eye is not fully formed, and has a gap on the west side. This gap is probably due to the presence of dry air on the storm's northwest side, which is getting wrapped into the storm. This dry air will persist through at least Friday, and should act to prevent Dean from undergoing rapid intensification until it clears the Lesser Antilles Islands. Dean is steadily moistening the environment around it, and may be able to overcome the dry air on Friday and put on a burst of rapid intensification. I expect Dean will become a large and extremely dangerous major hurricane by Saturday.
Latest model runs
The latest (12Z) model runs from this morning don't show much change from yesterday's runs for the 1-3 day period, but have a wider spread for the 4-5 day period. All the models show Dean moving through the Caribbean, passing over or just south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday or Monday, then into the western Caribbean. At that point, the models diverge. The NOGAPS model has the southernmost solution, taking Dean into northern Belize/Southern Mexico. The GFDL takes Dean through the Yucatan Channel and northwestward, towards western Louisiana. The other models are in between, with both the HWRF and UKMET nudging their tracks more to the north, grazing the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts both project Dean will be a Category 5 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Tonight marks the first flight of the NOAA jet, and we'll have a much more reliable set of model runs Friday morning. Hopefully, this will narrow down the uncertainty of what will happen when Dean reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
Impacts on the Caribbean
Two storms in the historical record with a similar tracks and intensities to what we might expect for Dean in the Caribbean were Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Gilbert intensified to a Category 3 hurricane as it passed south of Haiti, and made a direct hit on Jamaica, passing the entire length of the island. Gilbert then began a remarkable rapid intensification spurt as it moved over the Cayman islands into the Western Caribbean, reaching an all-time record low pressure of 888 mb before it slammed into the Yucatan Peninsula. Ivan tracked a bit further south in the Caribbean, but was also a Category 5 storm after it passed Jamaica.
Lesser Antilles Islands of Martinique, Dominica, Guadaloupe, and St. Lucia
Dean will pass through the central Lesser Antilles Islands Friday morning. Martinique and Dominica will likely receive the harshest blow, although damage may also be significant on Guadaloupe and St. Lucia. Heavy wind damage will be the primary threat on these four islands, although torrential rains of 2-7 inches may cause flash flooding problems as well. Storm surge is generally not a problem in the Lesser Antilles, since the surge tends to flow around islands surrounded by deep water.
Surrounding Lesser Antilles islands from Grenada to Antigua
These islands will experience tropical storm force winds and heavy rains, but Dean's rapid forward speed will keep these rains below four inches. Puerto Rico can expect 1-3 inches of rain from the outer rainbands of Dean, but tropical storm force winds should stay just south of the island.
The Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic suffered four deaths from flash floods due to heavy rains along the south side of the country during Ivan's passage. The northern part of the country was relatively unaffected. Five people died from Hurricane Gilbert. I expect similar effects from Dean, which will bring bands of very heavy rain over Hispaniola, leading to isolated life-threatening flash floods on Saturday. I don't think there will be any airport closures or major impact to tourist areas. The Barahona Peninsula, which juts out to the south, will be at greatest risk.
Haiti
Haiti is at major risk from heavy loss of life any time a hurricane brushes the island of Hispaniola. Hurricane Ivan did not pass close enough to the island to trigger major flash flooding, and did not kill anyone. However, thirty people died in Hurricane Gilbert. Dean will take a path similar to Gilbert's and will have a similar strength, so I expect severe flash flooding in the southern part of Haiti may cause many deaths. The airport in the capital of Port-au-Prince will likely close for a time Saturday and Sunday.
Jamaica
If you have travel plans to go to Jamaica, plan on spending a lot of time praying for the hurricane to miss, because that is what the locals will be doing. This seemed to be what spared Jamaica in 2004, when Hurricane Ivan made a beeline for the island, then suddenly turned and wobbled around the island. Ivan still killed 17 people in Jamaica and left 18,000 people homeless. Most of the major resorts and hotels fared well, and reopened a few days after Ivan passed. Damage on Jamaica totaled $360 million. Jamaica did not fare as well in Hurricane Gilbert, which made a direct hit as a Category 3 hurricane, killing 45. Gilbert dumped up to 27 inches of rain in the mountainous areas of Jamaica, causing severe flash flooding. Gilbert was the worst hurricane to hit Jamaica since Hurricane Charlie in 1951. Gilbert left $4 billion dollars in damage, and it was difficult to leave the island for over a week due to blocked roads and closed airports. If Dean makes a direct hit on Jamaica, expect to be stranded on the island for many days, with no power. If Dean makes a close pass but misses, as is more likely, expect a few days of hassle. All Jamaica airports will likely close on Sunday when Dean will begin to batter the island.
Cayman Islands
The poor Caymans got drilled by Ivan at Category 5 strength, and have still not fully recovered. However, the islands did a great job protecting the people there, and only suffered two deaths. 95% percent of the homes and other buildings (which generally follow South Florida's building codes) were damaged or destroyed. Expect Dean to perform a similar feat if it makes a direct hit as a Category 5. If Dean passes close but misses, the islands will fare much better--Gilbert passed 30 miles to the south of the Cayman Islands, and didn't kill anyone. There was very severe damage to crops, trees, and homes, but nothing near the level of the destruction wrought by Ivan.
Cancun and Cozumel
Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula got hammered by Gilbert, which hit as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds and a 15-20 foot storm surge. Ivan passed to the east of the area, largely sparing it. It's a little too early to speculate on what Dean might do, but I expect the Cancun and Cozumel airports will close on Monday. This will not be a repeat of Wilma, which hung around the Yucatan for three days. Dean is a fast moving storm that will bring about a day of bad weather to the affected locations. I'll talk more about Dean's likely impact on Mexico in a later blog. If you have plans to be in Cancun or Cozumel Monday, be prepared to endure a major hurricane.
Super Typhoon Sepat
In the Western Pacific, residents of Taiwan are anxiously watching Super Typhoon Sepat, which is expected to hit the island as Category 4 or 5 storm this weekend. Wunderground meteorologist Elaine Yang, who is from Taiwan, dug up this information for me: The last time Taiwan was hit by a super typhoon was back in 2005 when Category 4 typhoon Longwang (Dragon King in Chinese) made landfall at 0515 local time on October 2nd, just south of Hualien City. Over the last 13 years, there were two typhoons, July 1994 Tim and August 2000 Super Typhoon Bilis that had similar tracks to Sepat.
South and southeast of Taiwan are under the first level of alerts. The residents have been preparing for the arrival of Sepat. Retailer stores are taking down the advertisement boards, residents are nailing their windows, and farmers are in a hurry to harvest agriculture products. The tall trees over the major roads are being cut.
Dean's likely impact on the Caribbean; Super Typhoon Sepat update
Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:13 PM EDT on August 16, 2007
The Hurricane Hunters made their first penetration of Hurricane Dean this afternoon, and found a strong Category 1 hurricane--100 mph winds, and surface pressure of 974-979 mb. Dean is now a Category 2 hurricane. Once the winds rise to 115 mph, it will be a Category 3 storm--a major hurricane. Wind shear remains near 5 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next five days. Recent satellite loops and reports from the Hurricane Hunters show that an eye has appeared. The eye is not fully formed, and has a gap on the west side. This gap is probably due to the presence of dry air on the storm's northwest side, which is getting wrapped into the storm. This dry air will persist through at least Friday, and should act to prevent Dean from undergoing rapid intensification until it clears the Lesser Antilles Islands. Dean is steadily moistening the environment around it, and may be able to overcome the dry air on Friday and put on a burst of rapid intensification. I expect Dean will become a large and extremely dangerous major hurricane by Saturday.
Latest model runs
The latest (12Z) model runs from this morning don't show much change from yesterday's runs for the 1-3 day period, but have a wider spread for the 4-5 day period. All the models show Dean moving through the Caribbean, passing over or just south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday or Monday, then into the western Caribbean. At that point, the models diverge. The NOGAPS model has the southernmost solution, taking Dean into northern Belize/Southern Mexico. The GFDL takes Dean through the Yucatan Channel and northwestward, towards western Louisiana. The other models are in between, with both the HWRF and UKMET nudging their tracks more to the north, grazing the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts both project Dean will be a Category 5 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Tonight marks the first flight of the NOAA jet, and we'll have a much more reliable set of model runs Friday morning. Hopefully, this will narrow down the uncertainty of what will happen when Dean reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
Impacts on the Caribbean
Two storms in the historical record with a similar tracks and intensities to what we might expect for Dean in the Caribbean were Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Gilbert intensified to a Category 3 hurricane as it passed south of Haiti, and made a direct hit on Jamaica, passing the entire length of the island. Gilbert then began a remarkable rapid intensification spurt as it moved over the Cayman islands into the Western Caribbean, reaching an all-time record low pressure of 888 mb before it slammed into the Yucatan Peninsula. Ivan tracked a bit further south in the Caribbean, but was also a Category 5 storm after it passed Jamaica.
Lesser Antilles Islands of Martinique, Dominica, Guadaloupe, and St. Lucia
Dean will pass through the central Lesser Antilles Islands Friday morning. Martinique and Dominica will likely receive the harshest blow, although damage may also be significant on Guadaloupe and St. Lucia. Heavy wind damage will be the primary threat on these four islands, although torrential rains of 2-7 inches may cause flash flooding problems as well. Storm surge is generally not a problem in the Lesser Antilles, since the surge tends to flow around islands surrounded by deep water.
Surrounding Lesser Antilles islands from Grenada to Antigua
These islands will experience tropical storm force winds and heavy rains, but Dean's rapid forward speed will keep these rains below four inches. Puerto Rico can expect 1-3 inches of rain from the outer rainbands of Dean, but tropical storm force winds should stay just south of the island.
The Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic suffered four deaths from flash floods due to heavy rains along the south side of the country during Ivan's passage. The northern part of the country was relatively unaffected. Five people died from Hurricane Gilbert. I expect similar effects from Dean, which will bring bands of very heavy rain over Hispaniola, leading to isolated life-threatening flash floods on Saturday. I don't think there will be any airport closures or major impact to tourist areas. The Barahona Peninsula, which juts out to the south, will be at greatest risk.
Haiti
Haiti is at major risk from heavy loss of life any time a hurricane brushes the island of Hispaniola. Hurricane Ivan did not pass close enough to the island to trigger major flash flooding, and did not kill anyone. However, thirty people died in Hurricane Gilbert. Dean will take a path similar to Gilbert's and will have a similar strength, so I expect severe flash flooding in the southern part of Haiti may cause many deaths. The airport in the capital of Port-au-Prince will likely close for a time Saturday and Sunday.
Jamaica
If you have travel plans to go to Jamaica, plan on spending a lot of time praying for the hurricane to miss, because that is what the locals will be doing. This seemed to be what spared Jamaica in 2004, when Hurricane Ivan made a beeline for the island, then suddenly turned and wobbled around the island. Ivan still killed 17 people in Jamaica and left 18,000 people homeless. Most of the major resorts and hotels fared well, and reopened a few days after Ivan passed. Damage on Jamaica totaled $360 million. Jamaica did not fare as well in Hurricane Gilbert, which made a direct hit as a Category 3 hurricane, killing 45. Gilbert dumped up to 27 inches of rain in the mountainous areas of Jamaica, causing severe flash flooding. Gilbert was the worst hurricane to hit Jamaica since Hurricane Charlie in 1951. Gilbert left $4 billion dollars in damage, and it was difficult to leave the island for over a week due to blocked roads and closed airports. If Dean makes a direct hit on Jamaica, expect to be stranded on the island for many days, with no power. If Dean makes a close pass but misses, as is more likely, expect a few days of hassle. All Jamaica airports will likely close on Sunday when Dean will begin to batter the island.
Cayman Islands
The poor Caymans got drilled by Ivan at Category 5 strength, and have still not fully recovered. However, the islands did a great job protecting the people there, and only suffered two deaths. 95% percent of the homes and other buildings (which generally follow South Florida's building codes) were damaged or destroyed. Expect Dean to perform a similar feat if it makes a direct hit as a Category 5. If Dean passes close but misses, the islands will fare much better--Gilbert passed 30 miles to the south of the Cayman Islands, and didn't kill anyone. There was very severe damage to crops, trees, and homes, but nothing near the level of the destruction wrought by Ivan.
Cancun and Cozumel
Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula got hammered by Gilbert, which hit as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds and a 15-20 foot storm surge. Ivan passed to the east of the area, largely sparing it. It's a little too early to speculate on what Dean might do, but I expect the Cancun and Cozumel airports will close on Monday. This will not be a repeat of Wilma, which hung around the Yucatan for three days. Dean is a fast moving storm that will bring about a day of bad weather to the affected locations. I'll talk more about Dean's likely impact on Mexico in a later blog. If you have plans to be in Cancun or Cozumel Monday, be prepared to endure a major hurricane.
Super Typhoon Sepat
In the Western Pacific, residents of Taiwan are anxiously watching Super Typhoon Sepat, which is expected to hit the island as Category 4 or 5 storm this weekend. Wunderground meteorologist Elaine Yang, who is from Taiwan, dug up this information for me: The last time Taiwan was hit by a super typhoon was back in 2005 when Category 4 typhoon Longwang (Dragon King in Chinese) made landfall at 0515 local time on October 2nd, just south of Hualien City. Over the last 13 years, there were two typhoons, July 1994 Tim and August 2000 Super Typhoon Bilis that had similar tracks to Sepat.
South and southeast of Taiwan are under the first level of alerts. The residents have been preparing for the arrival of Sepat. Retailer stores are taking down the advertisement boards, residents are nailing their windows, and farmers are in a hurry to harvest agriculture products. The tall trees over the major roads are being cut.
Two models show Mexico landfall, two models show Texas landfall.
One computer model has Dean heading toward N.O.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html#a_topad
There is but one computer model, at this time, showing Dean moving into the northern Gulf.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html#a_topad
The important question "is the dillution over?" for the time being. If not then any attempt to rally will be met by more stock being dumped onto the market. The oversold condition of the stock will only become more oversold. Obviously if he is out of cash and can't raise any then he must do what he must do, but we as shareholders are not going to benefit from any potential run in cane stocks if he has another ten million shares to dump at .02 or .03 cents. That is my concern.
Disappointing action yesterday and today. I still am looking at the weekly RSI (.35) being as oversold as it has been on previous bottoms. It's my understanding that dilution is taking place here but whatever the reason for the selling pressure I am looking for the bottom at .015 to hold.
Shhhh, they're listening.....
I totally got head faked on this one. Buying yesterday at .029 and jumping the gun "anticipating" the 10 day moving above the 20 day ma. The 10 day is moving down again so we will probably test the .015 area and can only hope that holds. The weekly RSI which is at .37 will be back down in the .34-.35 area and if he gets through dumping whatever stock he is dumping maybe that will be the end of it for awhile and allow a decent bottom to be put in. Wonder how much dillution has taken place in the last two days on this "run up". Stock probably would have been above .05 if he hadn't dilluted it. It irks me that I sat so long waiting for a pullback to the .015 to .018 area to do my aggressive buying but thought yesterday that I had been wrong and moved my bid up. Dang.
.020, can only hope it holds here, big disappointment these last two days to say the least.