Feeding village children in Mindanao Philippines and watching my boy and girl grow up.
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Shhhh, they're listening.
It's interesting that the short term trend line is also at .005ish area. Connecting the lows of June, July and August has the bottom of the short term channel (4 months) at the same place where the long term (3 year) channel is. Did you notice that?
Well, it's my bad not looking at that channel before I got involved at .022 or I would have kept some powder dry. I really did not think the stock would come down that far with the weekly RSI (14) at .34 and the stock at .022. Live and (hopefully) learn.
I don't have that option. I am a basic member so that's probably why. I used to be a premium member when I was a broker but don't find the need for it now.
I think if you apply that to your TA you might find it to be a helpful tool. Did you pull up the downtrend line I was talking about? Someone was nice enough to post the chart at hurricane stocks site.
Thanks.
I have a premium service with Stockcharts.com which allows me to annotate charts. One of the tools that they have is the ability to click on three points on a chart and it will draw a trend line. I did this (for ECCI) using the November, 2003 bottom, September 2004 bottom and May 2005 bottom. The result was a downtrend line that connected the bottoms. Ironically, yesterday's low touched that downtrend line. This is not to say we won't see it again or even lower, it's just another "indicator" to me that we are "in the neighborhood" of a significant bottom. Unfortunately stockcharts.com doesn't allow me to post the annotation here so perhaps you can try it with the chart service you use and see if you don't come up with the same results.
Also, if you do the same thing with the tops, connecting the January, 2004 top, the October 2004 top, the September 2005 top and the May 2007 tops you get a very defined channel of which the bottom of the channel is .005 and the top of the channel is .055.
You combine this with the extremely high negative sentiment on this stock resulting in a weekly (14) RSI of .29 and you have an oversold condition that is unprecedented for this high Beta stock.
I will be the first to admit that it is difficult to be optimistic on any stock in this group, but I like to use channels and oversold weekly RSI (.33, .34 area) and this stock has both. Only time will tell if I am right or not, but I think buying this stock down here will prove to be a winner over the next few months.
I will admit that I was early, buying this stock at .022 when the weekly (14) RSI hit .34 but if you look up the word capitulation in any technical analysis book you may very well see a picture that is very close to what the chart of ECCI looks like. EEGI looks similar except the weekly (14) RSI is not oversold enough.
IMHO ofcourse.
I have a premium service with Stockcharts.com which allows me to annotate charts. One of the tools that they have is the ability to click on three points on a chart and it will draw a trend line. I did this using the November, 2003 bottom, September 2004 bottom and May 2005 bottom. The result was a downtrend line that connected the bottoms. Ironically, yesterday's low touched that downtrend line. This is not to say we won't see it again or even lower, it's just another "indicator" to me that we are "in the neighborhood" of a significant bottom. Unfortunately stockcharts.com doesn't allow me to post the annotation here so perhaps you can try it with the chart service you use and see if you don't come up with the same results.
Also, if you do the same thing with the tops, connecting the January, 2004 top, the October 2004 top, the September 2005 top and the May 2007 tops you get a very defined channel of which the bottom of the channel is .005 and the top of the channel is .055.
Well, you're looking at the daily RSI (21) and I am looking at the weekly RSI (14) so you will have many more oversold signals with the daily (21) then I will with the weekly (14) RSI. As you and I both know these are only tools. I have had the misfortune of being in stocks when the weekly (14) RSI got to 30 only to stay there for quite a while as the stock continued lower. But I would say the majority of the time you can look at high Beta stocks and find that the weekly RSI (14) getting oversold to .30 has a tendency of being a pretty good signal. As I mention in my previous message about WEGI, it worked perfectly for that stock on two separate occassions. It also worked for BUGS as well for three or four occassions. It's almost like a "fear" gauge.
I suppose you recommend we should put the money into WEGI instead? Actually if you look at the chart on WEGI when it was .035 the weekly (14) RSI was below 30 and was a screaming buy at that point. Investors had a huge loss in the stock at that price and yet it rallied to .13 then came back down to .025 (weekly RSI again got down to .30) and rallied to .80.
I am sure that the sentiment was as bad with WEGI when it was selling at .025 as the sentiment is now with ECCI at .007. However, I think it is impossible to state that ECCI WILL not rally much because investors have such a large loss in it.
The weekly (14) RSI is more of a "long term" bottom picking tool. The fact that this is at .29 is incredible but understandable considering the dilution. I may be totally wrong but it sure feels like a bottom. My problem is I got in a bit early when the weekly (14) RSI was at .34 (which was usually where a low occured. So my cost is in the .02 area. Even a quadruple off the bottom (if the bottom is .005) would only get me even. However, on a longer term perspective the 50 week ma is usually tested within 8 months (currently .039) and that was last tested in April.
It's uncanny the similarities in EEGI and ECCI's charts.
EEGI is not as oversold (weekly RSI) as ECCI but the last two weeks both have looked like a waterfall.
Yeah, I'm out about 8000 drinks (but you have to realize I drink at a bar that gives two for one drinks).
Well, at least it is 4 pm where you are (assuming you are on the east coast). It's 4 a.m. here in Hong Kong. My girl friend thinks I have lost my mind. She may not know how close to the truth she is.
So it wasn't dilution today but the MM's with ECCI? I would have liked to have seen the stock close up on the day after a battering like that. It would have made me feel like a capitulation reversal bottom.
Oh well, time to get some sleep.
What's that they say about buy when there is blood in the street and your hand shakes putting the order in? Well, there's blood in my urine and my hand shakes when I pour the next drink...does that count?
TAKI, that is going to be one heck of a whack. Don't you have over a million shares?
I've got to admit I thought .008 was possible but .005...wow. I didn't have an order sitting there so didn't get any there. Well, a triple from here only takes it to .015...Was anyone lucky enough to have an order sitting in there at .06 or lower? Think that was the bottom for this "bounce".
That's true. But only if we were participating. If we're gonna get screwed we should really get screwed.
That's true. Plus the fact that the stock did not react at all to the news. However, it does put my mind to ease that the funds used from the dilution appear to be for company use and not Las Vegas hookers.
Ickyy, I empathize with your frustration, but I truly feel you left the game in the bottom of the ninth inning here. God knows I could be wrong but if you look at the weekly RSI being at .3080 this is unchartered oversold territory. If you look at the time span between bottoms it has been:
6 months followed by a 650% move
4 months followed by an 800% move
6 months followed by a 400% move
8 months followed by a 350% move
3 months followed by a 1000% move
5 months followed by a 350% move
3 months followed by a 100% move
3 months followed by a 300% move
___________________
We are now in the 9th month since the last major bottom in January, 2007.
So IF this company is not going out of business, I truly believe we are close to a move. The question in my mind is will it be a 100% move, a 350% move or a 1000% move.
Anyway, good luck to you but if it moves a smidgeon lower on this dilution you might want to consider getting back in. Just my opinion ofcourse.
While it is true that he is diluting this company into oblivion down here, it is also true that all of the hurricane stocks are in the crapper. BUGS is testing it's low now so without the dilution I think ECCI would be sitting at .017ish and testing it's low as well. BUGS is another stock that has been diluted to hell so that's why I use that as a comparison. But if you look at the rest they aren't doing great either.
Obviously the CEO finds it necessary to come up with cash. No one knows if that is for more hardware or a new yacht but for whatever reason he is strapped for cash and doesn't feel there is anything in the pipe that will make the stock move higher anytime soon for him to dilute at higher prices.
I would feel worse if all the other cane stocks were flying and this dog was playing dead but they're all dogs this year so far. I just went through the list of hurricane stocks from the hurricane board and found only three DPDW, WWAT and PDGE that aren't almost as oversold as ECCI.
As for the oversold nature of the weekly RSI of ECCI? Well, it's at .31 and has not been down this low in 4 years. It's been to .34, .33 and even .32 when it's bottomed but not in the .31 (except right after it went public and took a nosedive). The dilution has obviously contributed to the extreme oversold nature of the stock and as I said in my post several weeks ago "I don't know if the bottom is .015, .010 or .008 but we are in the neighborhood...the question is how long do we drive around this neighborhood"...
And I stick to that. I believe we are in the neighborhood of a significant bottom, but I don't have a clue as to how long the CEO is going to continue to dilute. I only pray the dilution is for something concrete, like machines, and not something frivilous, like a Las Vegas hooker.
We may go through hurricane season without any storms hitting the US and all of the cane stocks may drift lower until there is a capitulation bottom and people are convinced there will never be another hurricane hit the US. Last year the stocks rallied in December of all months. And all of them ran up into May....this year may be the same. But if anyone has an inside scoop with God or the CEO let me know will ya?
BUGS seemed to run up on the last Mexican hit but it was short lived. BUGS will probably spike up Tuesday but it will also probably be short lived (quick double perhaps).
But don't get the impression I have lost hope...far from it. Look at my post from yesterday. I said then that I thought we were in the neighborhood (weekly RSI below 34 lowest ever)but the question is how long do we drive around this neighborhood.
From your lips to God's ears amigo.
Yeah, I just saw that. But it's not the news, it's how a stock reacts to the news. I will let the chart tell me if we move up from here or if they dilute into the news. The 10 day ma has not moved above the 20 day ma as yet (.019 and .021) ...we got very very very close the day it popped up to .033 but no cigar. I need that confirmation to convince me that this isn't just another opportunity for them to dilute. I pray you're right TAKI, but I just don't trust those guys. Acc/Dis chart still looks ugly.
Tom
All of the hurricane stocks have been pos the last two years. Pick one. They have all acted the same. BUGS had a hurricane (Dean) go right through it's territory (Mexico) and it still only had a little blip higher. Dilution is rampant in all of the hurricane stocks. I still stick to the idea that buying a stock when the RSI weely is below 34 is a good long term plan if a company is going to stay in business. Determining where the stock will rally to is a little more difficult. The RSI weekly on RSI is currently 34 and I feel we will get a nice bounce "sometime". When? Who knows. Why did they all rally in November last year (2006) after a horrible cane season? Oversold is my guess. So it will come when we least expect it, I believe, if there are no more hurricanes. It's hard to be patient, but that is what is required. Buy low, sell high. It is low now. Could go lower but if you look back on a seven year chart to the times that the weekly RSI was below 35 you will see that it was near a significant bottom. End of broken record.
Peace,
Tom
Hope this is OT but what is the latest with the oil spill off LA? Have any stocks participated in that catastrophe?
Thanks
I know it's going to zero. As I said before, the system allows Herbert to drive a company (V Auto) out of business in three months trading then allows him to come back in and run a SECOND company to zero. As x said before. It is legal. It is the system and there is nothing we can do about it. I lost 50k in this stock and only pray that the system finds a way to fry Herbert. I have done my job by going after Russ Urban through the SEC for pumping the stock at 1.50 giving erroneous information. Little else I can do. Licking my wounds on this one.
I agree. It is disheartening that the company is in such dire need of cash at the moment that it must hit the stock when it is at an all time low.
As I told TAKI a few weeks ago in a PM, APDR's weekly RSI was not oversold enough for me to start getting aggressive. It is still at .37 and was in the .34 neighborhood for a few months before making it's spike up. So I will use that as my guide. The daily accumulation/distribution chart doesn't look bad despite the threat of impending massive shares being possibly dumped on the market.
As I said yesterday, anyone in the past who has bought the stock when the weekly RSI was below 36 has been rewarded within weeks with a considerable move higher. So I don't know if the bottom is .015 or .010 or .008 but I do believe that within the next few months the stock will have a nice move higher. My expectations have been someone dampened because of the dillution and the accumulation/distribution chart not looking as healthy as it did, but I still believe that there will be a nice move up over the next few weeks.
The weekly RSI is currently at 32 which is as oversold as it has ever been in the history of this stock. However, if the CEO is going to continue to dillute this stock at these levels then this .015 could get broken, obviously. In which case there "should be" a capitulation bottom ...where? Anybody's guess since there will no longer be support levels to gauge by. I would "guess" at a bottom if the daily RSI got below 30 (currently 36). The problem then would be how far could it rally. .03 area maybe. As I mentioned a week ago, the accumulation distribution chart shows distribution which we all now know is the company selling stock. If I was running this company I would be trying to come up with a decent PR to move this stock up before dumping more stock on the market. The question is, what do they have in the works that could produce a positive PR?
I understand, but how many times can an individual bring a company public and then dillute them down the toilet? He has done this twice and although it may be legal it shows a huge flaw in our system.
I admit that it was my bad for jumping on the Russ Urban band wagon without verifying Herbert's history and my anger is directed at Urban and speculatingstocks.com for misleading investors. But the fact that someone like Herbert can continuously do this to companies over and over again shows something is amiss in our system.
No I don't have it. If you go to their webpage and look at press releases it has his office number.
No I haven't verified anything. I am in Hong Kong and can not verify a thing.
I agree with you Jim and I own the stock. The weekly RSI is at .33 and is as oversold as at any other time in it's history when significant bottoms have been made. The only thing that disturbed me was the nosedive that the accummulation/distribution chart made starting two weeks ago. It showed massive distribution and now I know it was the CEO dilluting the stock. It is hard to say whether we will hold the .015 or break it and have a capitulation bottom but I do think that anyone buying in here and waiting a few weeks/months will be rewarded for their patience.
Yes, but I have learned to keep my mouth shut as no one wishes to hear what they don't want to hear.
I agree with that but in this case there was no technical analysis because the company was new. I broke the cardinal rule of buying a stock with no history and fell for the hype from Russ Urban. I still believe shareholders should file a complaint with the SEC. Herbert has done this to two companies in a row in a very very very short period of time and this should not go unpunished. No wonder they hired an SEC attorney right out of the box.