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The value here is ridiculously great. This bounces to at least .50 on a positive late breaking abstract, the delayed blinded publication coming out, or other good news before ASCO.
I’m sure they’re expiring constantly.
Warrants expiring worthless is essentially the same as a stock buyback. But it deprives the company of capital. So they have to dilute more. It’s a game of back and forth.
That sounds about right. I’m pretty sure that ~67 million was the warrant liability listed in the annual report. Can anybody else confirm that?
Considering about 1/3 of the total share count is in outstanding warrants, I think you may be overstating dilution.
Don’t sweat it. This goes over .50 with good data
I agree with this. There’s no evidence of failure, just a delay. This is where we sat last summer. Just sucks that our hope is delayed.
LP will have to dilute herself into minority shareholder before the company gets sold. My guess is that eventually it goes for between $100-$250 million. Unless...paper comes out and approval follows.
Can anyone comment on censoring in this trial? Past presentations have suggested that what is causing us to delay the unblinding and release of data. I’m starting to wonder if they want to wait until everyone in the trial dies prior to analyzing mOS. That could take another 5 or 10 years, if DCVax is curing patients. Can you continue to accumulate data with censoring?
I agree. That’s what ended my wildly speculative conspiracy theory.
Dr. Liau...signing off from her editorial position to become the face of personalized dendritic cell vaccines.
I’m going to post something of a conspiracy theory about the BlackRock purchase here. I don’t buy into these theories, as I find that usually the simplest explanation is the most probable. But the timing of a large hedge fund like BlackRock buying Tennenbaum (and Cognate) could be to confound NWBO management in their FDA application, as NWBO is now reliant on BlackRock for manufacturing of their DCVax products. I hope our contract with Cognate is rock solid for providing manufacturing services as we ramp up. Otherwise I see this as a legitimate threat to the business, until we have our own manufacturing capacity. Cognate is small potatoes to an entity like BlackRock and could be used to enable Wall Street to finally win the fight to bankrupt NWBO, if that is what is truly happening.
This is all major conspiracy theory stuff. I’m hoping there is a far simpler solution for the acquisition. I would imagine that BlackRock buying Cognate from Toucan would have been much cheaper than acquiring it through Tennenbaum. That is the theory that makes me think that I’m overthinking all this. But it is a possibility.
My conspiracy theory makes for good drama, if nothing else. And let’s face it, this board loves a good story...
I agree. I think $1-$2 is the maximum on buyout or positive news. But maybe I’ll be proven wrong...
At what price? $1? $5? $0.50? At what price should LP sell out?
Is this a chicken and egg situation? Company has to spend money to expand facilities and production for commercialization and the FDA won’t give approval until they can prove that they have the facilities to handle commercialization?
Once the science is proven, demand could be almost instantaneous. How do you forecast what that demand will be?
Flipper is right. When you give up on an investment, you sell. NW isn’t selling. To do it at this point would be reckless abandon. The technology hasn’t failed, only the anticipated timeline. This security could still be worth 2 billion in sales in 2020. The people selling here could be really kicking themselves down the road. NW isn’t one of them.
She might still be right. She might have the golden ticket and Big Pharma might need her a lot more than she needs them. But until we have data, it would appear you’re right.
Maybe I should have said “some underpromising and overdelivering”
Thanks alpha
Reviewing your data shows that the chance of failure on this trial is slim. There is efficacy here. But we’re all waiting for the science to save this company while management silence seems intent on diluting and destroying shareholder value.
I’m optimistic for good things before ASCO. A big splash of data is what is needed to turn around the share price.
Good Luck!
I voted yes for 1. No for 2&3. I’d like to see more underpromising and overdelivering. When that happens, I’ll be happy to reward the directors.
Good strategy. I bought and held. I still believe. I think the next month will be interesting.
Everyone is waiting to buy more. Makes no sense to buy here with no insight into the success of their product. If they can prove success, this thing goes to a dollar or two pretty quick.
You only lose when you sell and there is no reason to sell here with top line data pending.
At least we have income now...
Warehouse lease should finally be kicking in 500k per month. We are officially in the real estate business.
I’m not giving up, but yesterday was a gut punch. We really need some positive data to drive us back to the 30s and beyond.
I’m patient enough to stick around for a paper.
AF is leading the Wolfpack. Play the game. Get on board with him. Short the hell out of this thing. Watch NWBO go bankrupt.
The only thing that rescues this stock is science. A published paper proving the technology works and they’re on the road to approval.
If that happens, the squeeze will be epic.
I’m pretty sure the article was submitted in Nov. That coincided with the share price increase. I expect publication in the next 4-6 weeks
I agree. I think we’re down to the last couple weeks without a paper
I’ll be voting yes to share increase and no to option awards. A publication between now and the proxy vote will no doubt change my sentiment on the option awards.
Not true. LP doesn’t pick up the company for a song. The highest bidder picks up the company. The company would be auctioned off to the highest bidder. And that would almost certainly mean that Linda is out and the shares she currently holds would be almost worthless. I’m pretty sure that she isn’t hoping for bankruptcy.
I’ll feel more generous when they do something that generates shareholder value. Dilution doesn’t do that.
Correction. I’m inclined to vote for the share increase.
I agree that the shorts have made their money on this security. Not much more to gain at .25 per share. But I really think that holding the vote prior to a published blinded paper is bad form. Give us information prior to voting. This is probably going bankrupt either way if the trial fails. Why prolong the pain?
While I’m inclined to vote for the proxy, I’m not sure about the options for directors. You have to earn your pay, and the directors have done nothing but dilute shareholders and make promises that haven’t been kept up until now. I’m not sure that is worth the compensation they seek.
I’d say it’s bullish that he hasn’t acted here. He’d only act on his options here if they were about to expire or if they were about to announce failure.
And as an addendum, I truly believe there is value to shareholders here.
Well stated. In medicine, everyone wants to do more with less. Clinical research is exhausting and thankless work. Progress comes in small steps. I agree that Linda and Les would be truly demented to be leading us down a path to nowhere. I’m confident that there’s information coming from this trial, although it may not be a home run in everyone’s eyes. Sometimes failure happens right before a big breakthrough. We’re going to learn something from this trial and even if it has little value to shareholders, it will have value to medicine.
Well stated. There is competition everywhere, even in science and medicine.
Conservative KM curves suggest 23-25 months mOS. See the alpha puppy’s post on the subject.
Well said. This goes sideways until we have more information on the value of shares. That comes from trial metrics only. But it does feel good that management believes they have a home run. Put that in the context of SOS article. You know they follow his analysis as they quoted him in their PowerPoint last June or September.
Just more speculation to kill the time until the publication comes out.
Nah...just my best pumper impression. I’ll settle down.