Spec,

Yes, it's been obvious Chevron has been a candidate in the fray, but I was curious to see if Mark was hinting at a new player. - Longtimer

Mark, would the Sterling Silver Fork be BP, as they may have many pounds sterling to give away?

Balance, I do think today's announcement was noteworthy about what it didn't say.

As you observed, it does not mention a signing date. Makes me think there is still some negotiating going on. Perhaps Chevron/Texaco is making a last minute bid for action in Block 2, as reported on the Blog. Block 2 is not mentioned in today's press release, nor is Addax's involvement therein, even though last week's release said Addax would be in the consortium in that block.

It seems all the delay has served ERHC well. With reports of "big oil" being discovered in Block 1, it makes ERHC very popular. Who knows, maybe the delay til oil discovery in Block 1 was part of Sir Offor's gameplan. If substantial oil has been found, it definitely strengthens his hand considerably. Whatever the case, Offor seems to have made the most of every turn of events thus far. No doubt he will (or has) found a way to "up the ante" again if there is the opportunity to do so. Now, it's just a matter of time before things are brought to a final conclusion. - Longtimer

P.S.: Noticed Jane Barker and the ERHC office telephone number are listed at the end of all 2006 press releases. Wonder if Ward Communications is not being used anymore (would explain why the website hasn't been updated recently).

Mark, you could also add to the list the possibility of ERHE being listed on a stock real exchange, once its coffers have been filled by its partners. - Longtimer

Re: Change of CEOs

Perhaps Memon's departure is just a case of passing the baton for the next phase of ERHE's development, and maybe it signifies a shift in the direction that the company is heading.

Memon's Letter to Shareholders was focused on ERHE becoming an E&P company, and Memon's background fit well with the goal of developing an E&P business.

However, reading Brandhuber's biography in today's announcement makes me wonder if the focus has shifted to positioning ERHE as a buyout candidate (likely not in the very near future, but as the value of ERHE's assets are substantiated). In any case, Brandhuber's expertise does seem to strengthen the company's legal footing and resources, something that certainly might not be bad to have at this point in time.

Given the long timeline of the petroleum business, this (an eventual buyout) may be the most expedient path for shareholders to cash in on ERHE's value. I would not be surprised to see communication from Brandhuber about "increasing shareholder value," to this end.

At any rate, it is very encouraging to see ERHE has once again been able to persuade well-heeled expertise to join its ranks. That tells me that we are still on the right track. - Longtimer

The article about the postponement til mid-February states 'The postponement was to give time for Sao Tome officials to "harmonize positions on items to be discussed", said da Costa.' I wonder if one STP JMC official is ready to go ahead, while the other is holding back?

This makes me think of a situation in a city close to NYC in which an institution acquired an old theater and wanted to renovate it. The mayor of the city was prejudiced against the institution and would not issue the permit. The institution sued, not the city, but the mayor himself. Once that happened, the delay for the permit vanished.

Sometimes it takes "getting personal" to get those obstructing progress to let things move ahead.

I just wonder if there is something proactive we can do in this situation, like a write-in campaign to the four JMC officials (both Sao Tomean and Nigerian), and tell them that their actions are being watched closely by informed persons who can't understand their inability to consummate round 2 despite the willingness of companies involved to sign the PSCs. Ask them why has it been repeatedly delayed? Tell them that the world community is starting to view the JMC and it's members as inept and ineffectual. Even writing Daukoru and Menezes probably wouldn't hurt either.

Joe, thanks for posting the hits to your site. It's useful to the extent that it is a gauge indicating how interest in ERHC has apparently expanded, and it shows at the very least that individuals have surfed from some big-name companies. Perhaps you could just periodically post a list of hits from noteworthy domains and maybe a summary of hits by country, rather than posting a multitude of messages on the board.

Also, please don't go nuts trying to analyze these hits. Your blog story on the Baltimore attorney is a bit over the top.

It seems pretty obvious from the Reuters news story and the leaked attorney general report that the primary target of both was ERHE. Both were probably ghost-written by Big Oil (i.e., ExxonMobile) cronies. Getting the JOD and SEC involved doesn't sound like a Sao Tomean idea, though it was presented as such.

It seems apparent that Big Oil is pulling out all the stops in an effort to derail the second-round results, in which they lost out. Knock out ERHE and the whole second round falls apart. I wouldn't doubt they also pressured ERHE's original accountants to resign. Fortunately so far, ERHE has managed to stay one step ahead in this chess game.

It will be incredible if things come this far and the second round is not consummated. I believe Nigeria will see to it that the PSCs are signed, and this whole stink will be left in the dust.

It would be choice to see the JMC issue a press release exposing this whole Big Oil charade. Someone should e-mail them a nice package exposing the connections that Dobie Langenkamp has. That should really make the Nigerians recoil (at Big Oil's attempt to manipulate the round) and make them even more determined to complete the second round as is.

I can see one positive outcome from all this: Perhaps it will make all parties involved in current PSCs and JOAs more earnest to come to an agreement and sign off, before the whole process is canceled.

Still long.

It's been a long time since I've posted. But let me just say two things:

1. ERHE's prospects have never looked brighter than now. The company's management has been able to execute its plan come what may. I have confidence it will continue to do so.

2. I have placed mongrel and his various incarnations on ignore. This has made reading this board much more relevant. While it is good to be alerted to downside potential, enough history has passed to make it apparent mongrel's posts have an ulterior motive. Why expend your time and energy retorting his propaganda when it could be better spent elsewhere? If all would put him on ignore, he would soon find he is talking into the wind.

Just a few observations:

1. It is interesting, if but only coincidentally, that evidently the new PR firm was enlisted after the spokeswoman (Ms. Barker?) was quoted in the Norvel Scott article as saying "There's nothing to that story." Larger companies usually respond to such inquiries with something to the effect "we don't comment on rumors." Given the reported experience of some on this board, it would not be hard to imagine that the Norvel Scott quote was indeed a retort from Ms. Barker. And perhaps it was a misstep that helped precipitate the change in PR contacts.

2. Regarding Barry Morgan's buy-in story... where there's smoke there's fire. Whether it will ever see the light of day is another question. But I take it as another validation of the investment we are holding.

Basic info on the technology used for deep sea surveying, drilling, and operations, also from spe.org:

http://video.spe.org/podia/lecture.aspx?c=47

Deep-water drilling isn't what it used to be....

One salient comment from the Pioneer presentation in London that hasn't been noted as yet on this board (to my knowledge):

"Our most exciting blocks obviously are centered right in the middle, around a block that Chevron/Exxon just went into. They'll be drilling a well in 2006; that's Block 1 in what they call the JDZ. That's the Joint Development Zone between Nigeria and Sao Tome, probably one of the hottest plays going on in the world today. ... Obviously we'll be drilling several wells there, looking for 3-5 hundred million targets over the next several years."

(http://www.vcall.com/CEPage.asp?ID=92527 starting with minute 19:38; view slide 26.)

Sounds like Pioneer is pretty committed to their JDZ blocks. Centurion called the JDZ "one of the last elephant hunting grounds in the world." Pioneer says "probably one of the hottest plays going on in the world today." These words are reassuring.

Although the stock price of ERHE is languishing at the moment, it is only a matter of time before the prospects ahead start to have their effects. Will that be month(s), or year(s)? Time will tell. But it seems more realistic to view ERHE as a long-term investment and not get too worked up about the short-term stock performance (unless you are in on margin or day trading).

In the meantime, no doubt members of the three ERHC consortiums already had terms of a PSC and JOA worked out among themselves. They had months to work at this, as well as a model PSC from Block 1 that came later on. It would be hard to believe they went all the way to the altar without having worked out terms among themselves. So likely that leaves negotiating with the JDA and junior bidders. And no doubt Offor is a tremendous asset in understanding and negotiating with the indigenous bidders.

With the foregoing assumptions, it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility for PSCs and JOAs to be completed sooner than later. Based on the parties involved, I would venture to say Block 4 will be first, followed by Block 2, then Block 3, followed by the other two blocks.

The big question is, when will drilling begin and oil struck? That will be the proof in the pudding.

In any case, ERHC has a lot of potential, and a lot going for it. It hasn't gotten where it is by the work of imbeciles (at least in recent times).

But this investment is not for those with little patience.

Here's a compelling reason for the JDA to get this thing squared away by June 15: http://www.rigzone.com/events/event_detail.aspx?e_id=2727

Note that Carlos Gomes, Chairman of the JDA, is slated to give a keynote address on Friday, June 17, titled "Diary of the Nigeria Sao-Tome & Principe Joint Development Authority".

http://www.ibcenergy.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=marlin/home&siteid=30000000572&mar...

It will certainly be egg on the face of the JDA if they are unable to consummate the licensing round by then.

Also, on Thursday, June 16, Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources is scheduled to speak on "Building a further presence in Africa".

There is also a speaker slated from the Nigerian Department of Petroleum Resources.

On the other hand, if the licensing awards have been made by then, perhaps this conference will provide some publicity for ERHE.