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I thought I read somewhere that the Retts data would be available in 6 months. Don't quote me on that, to be honest I haven't really followed Retts too carefully. I always viewed it as more of a bonus if it works, and a potential canary to see if A273 will be effective.
If Retts is a 12 week trial then we're three months away from when the last patient is dosed. Add another few weeks to analyze the data and it quickly approaches 6 months. Maybe it's closer to 4...either way, that is where everyone's attention seems to be focused.
Here's a question: If Retts trial doesn't succeed, will it change anyone's opinion of how 273 will perform in the Parkinson's and Alzheimer's trials?
I'm still not ready to wave goodbye to the 2s, but the chart certainly has indicated more strength recently. It dropped into the 2s and quickly rebounded.
Now, the question becomes to what extent did the analyst upgrade play into this? News is like pizza, it's nice when it's hot and still enjoyable when its cold, just not as much. What happens when this news becomes stale -- will AVXL be able to sustain current price levels?
One thing going for it is that the Retts trials are getting closer with each passing day. This puts considerable pressure on those who may be short to cover, and also those who may be on the fence about going long to make a decision. Right now there's no urgency for either type of investor.
I'd like to see it hold 3s for at least 4 weeks. That would indicate to me we've found new support above the $2.80 threshold.
Thanks, and likewise!
Fair enough. Thanks for the clarification. My understanding was that the trials were being conducted in a manner where those who have the biomarkers were selected for the trial. If the trial population is indeed a full and random sample of people with and without the markets, all the better.
No, I think that I understand precision medicine just fine. It's giving Anavex the best chance to succeed in contained trials. In the real world not everyone will have the genetic makeup that makes them a good fit for a trial candidate.
Ideally, we'd have a drug that doesn't need to rely on precision medicine -- one that can benefit anyone who takes it. I thought that A273 might be that drug. Now I'm not sure that it is. This doesn't;'t mean that there isn't a market for it, it just means that the market is a bit smaller.
I've always been long. That's what is so funny about people who don't like my posts. I just try to temper my excitement until there's validation to be excited. Until then, I'll play the cards that are dealt. If the stock feels heavy I may sell some shares. If it feels light I'll pick some up.
I wish I still had Twitter because I could show all the back-and-forth conversations I had with Jean Fonteneau -- no idea what happened to that guy, he used to be all over Twitter, Daniel Ward, Adam Feuerstein, etc. My enthusiasm isn't quite what it was back in 2015 but that has more to do with learning about the odds of failure in other ALZ trials that had positive P2 data. I recognize the risks more now than I do back then.
I don't intentionally come across as negative. Admittedly at one point many years ago I was more optimistic but I think that's because I drank some of the Kool-Aid with my initial purchase, and got caught up in the excitement when the stock went from $2 to $15. I don't think any of my posts, or anyone else's for that matter, can influence the price action. I try to call tops and bottoms with the same frequency.
Back in the day I used to battle with Jean Fonteneau and even Martin Shkreli on Twitter, defending Anavex. They were adamant the stock was a fraud, I was adamant it was a sure thing.
Now, I'm at the point where I'll admit I have no idea. Maybe the drug works and maybe it doesn't. I'm content to wait and find out. I am conservative by nature so my preference would be to play it safe with the A273 compound, generate some revenue from it through a partnership, and use that revenue to develop other drugs like A371. That seems more prudent than betting the farm on A271 and if it fails, not having a backup plan.
I have a core position that hasn't changed much since 2015. I don't trade that because I'm aware news can pop at any time, good or bad. It's a small position to mitigate the massive risk, but large enough to where if AVXL does succeed it'll make life significantly more comfortable.
I also have a lot of money used for trading in and out, which essentially allows my core holding to become "free shares." A bleeding price benefits my strategy immensely because it allows me to buy more at a low price and even marginal gains result in nice profit.
The only losers so far are those who bought high and haven't sold, or those who bought high and haven't traded in and out to balance out the losses.
I didn't say that the results don't point toward efficacy, I said it's too early to make that conclusion based on the way these trials were designed. Big difference.
There was a time when data strongly suggested Anavex Plus being the next big thing but more time and research ultimately disproved that assumption. Happens all the time.
Until then best we can do is hope for the share price to keep going up so the LPC dilution is minimized.
The upside is what keeps me interested and is the reason for my initial investment many years ago. The reality is that nobody has any idea what causes Alzheimer's, or how to cure/prevent it. Anavex has an idea it is trying but its just a theory at this point and any data collected so far isn't all that valuable because the tests were not designed for efficacy.
We'll know in 18-24 months whether this works or not. Its premature to call AVXL a winner or a loser until that time. So in the meantime, the most interesting element is charting the price action day by day....
But you cannot be certain that AVXL will be approved in Australia, it hasn't had nearly enough testing to make that definitive claim.
No breakthrough next year. We are at least 24 months out from fda approval for Alzheimers
That is the comparison. One stock was incredibly undervalued and the other wasn’t. The issue is that in the last four years there’s been zero growth with AVXL’s price. That’s on Dr Missling.
We'll see. I hope so too. My optimism has waned over the years. Yours hasn't. I think we can both agree that if someone had $10,000 to invest in 2016, buying ARRY would have been preferable over AVXL. Especially since someone could then take that same $10,000 and buy AVXL today for even less.
This is more of a trading stock to me now. Before I considered it a long term hold. I still have my core position but I think my best odds of making money now is to trade the dips.
Eh, I have a decent grasp on business. I think you hit the nail on the head. The first results in 2015 were incredible and since then, it's been meh. We learned that Anavex Plus is useless, we learned that the drug doesn't actually reverse ALZ, and we're selecting the trial participants with the best genetic chance to show success without regard to how the general population may respond. Now we wait to see whether it can halt the progression over a larger cohort in a blinded but dose optimized trial.
I don't know anything about bringing a drug to the market, but what is Missling's track record in this area?
I think I know exactly the sort of competition Anavex faces which is why it's all the better to find a strong strategic partner early who can help protect against some of these outside influences.
Missling is rolling the dice. Everyone hopes he ends up hard 12, but the odds are just as good if not better he craps out. Its a gamble. And my perspective is do everything to make the gamble less risky even if it means leaving some money on the table.
Well to be fair, if that one molecule turns out to be the missing link for ALZ research then it'll be worth something no matter who invented it. The patent expiration, I don't know anything about that. I thought the patent was good for another few years.
ARRY is clearly the more established company. My point was that the market valued them both the same three years ago. One CEO took steps to improve shareholder value. One CEO succeeded in doing so. The other, hasn't. Time value of money and lost opportunity cost. MBA 101 stuff.
Mark Zuckerberg in 2006 had a proven commodity that had just taken the social media crown away from MySpace. He knew he had value with the data he was collecting.
Nobody, not even Missling, knows for sure that he's holding anything of value with AVXL's drug. Maybe it's worth something, maybe it isn't, no different than the lotto ticket I bought last night at the gas station.
Apples to oranges comparison.
Also, Zuckerberg is the type of person who just wanted to build something "cool." It was a happy coincidence that FB ended up where it did, but if tanked and a year later was the least popular website on the internet, Zuckerberg wouldn't have cared about the money he left on the table. Profit was never his primary motive. He'd have turned down $1B or $50B, or $500B even, because to him the power and control was more valuable than the money.
I'd gladly pay for a better CEO. Look at the depressed share price. A new CEO would easily be worth the money spent.
Missling is taking an unnecessary gamble. Maybe AVXL hits on every account and he holds all the cards. Or maybe AVXL has lukewarm data and Missling loses some of his leverage he has now. Or maybe AVXL fails miserably and Missling can still live comfortably on the millions he's made so far.
Another biotech was trading below AVXL's price in 2016. It's being purchased for $10B ($48/share) today.
AVXL doesn't have this sort of potential because of Dr. Missling's incompetence. He's single-handedly holding the value of the stock back. If AVXL is as cutting edge as everyone claims, the stock would easily be trading above $10 by now.
Get a better CEO, one who knows how and is willing to make deals, and the actual value of AVXL can be tapped. Maybe not as much as if you play fast and loose and roll the dice hoping for positive P3, but most investors would gladly take a 5x ROI on an investment.
Your portfolio isn’t indicative of the market. Both the Dow and nasdaq were barely red. Avxl closes down significantly more. I don’t think the drop had anything to do with the market.
Best opportunity is all relative.
In 2015, AVXL and AMD were the same price. People then were saying AVXL is the best opportunity in the market, too.
Maybe AVXL will turn out to be the best. Maybe it wets the bed and goes to 0 if the drug fails.
AVXL is certainly one of the biggest gambles in the market. It's one of the most interesting stocks to discuss in the market. I'm not sure that I agree with 100% confidence it's the best opportunity in the market until we have data that ensures it will find approval.
If at that time it is still trading under $3.25, I will agree it's the most undervalued stock in the market.
He got busted.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/14985122-kanak-kanti-de/4694216-confessions
His picks/sentiment weren't special though, I think he had like a 35% win rate.
Um...the Nasdaq was barely down today. Same with the DJIA. Nor was the IBB.
Anavex was down big.
Definitely wasn't "the market." Today's drop was AVXL specific, as it should be. Dilution is going to cause a stock price to drop. Doesn't matter if it's an ATM or one-time offering.
Hahahahaha. What a clown.
Joey Parsi loves to compare himself to Steve Jobs or Elon Musk or all the other CEO greats.
How many of them took six weeks off from work?
99.9% chance this company ends up in bankruptcy court within the next 24 months. Parsi has literally run out of funding options. Current shareholders won't invest with him. He's incapable of crowdfunding. He's got nowhere left to turn to except maybe additional toxic lenders -- but even they may not be willing to touch GIGL in its current form.
Goodbye, Joey. Competition has arrived.
Like GIGL but...better!
https://www.newyorkfamily.com/the-wonder-a-new-members-only-club-for-families-opens-in-tribeca/
And with actual backing and financing.
Guess where they're expanding next...yup. GIGL is toast.
Why did Biogen partner with Anavex a few years ago?
The consortium means nothing. It doesn't hurt Merck any to join AVXL. If the drug works maybe it gives Merck a bit of an edge in the bidding because it has a prior relationship. If the drug doesn't work what's Merck lost?
Just trying to bring perspective here, it's easy to get super excited and start reading between lines that don't exist...yet.
RSI means nothing when the creditors demand payment and Parsi cannot comply.
This goes to bankruptcy. Creditors will probably agree to forgive debt in exchange for new equity, because they're not going to get anything in a liquidation. Giggles doesn't own much other than some restaurant equipment and a jungle gym and a few tables and chairs.
Incorrect. There is actually considerable downside.
At any given moment, Joey Parsi could find himself forced to shutter the business. That means that downside risk is 100%. Just because the stock is trading under a penny doesn't change the fact that there is a very real chance all investment in this vaporizes overnight.
Compare that with a company that is established but undervalued. The downside risk is minimal relative to the upside. Investing in Apple may result in a 10-20% loss, but it's very unlikely that an investor will lose everything.
Funny you quote Warren Buffet -- do you think he would invest in Giggles n Hugs? Joey Parsi has had 10+ years and he's failed. What makes you think another few years he'll suddenly figure it out. This isn't a new concept anymore. It's been around for over a decade. By his own admission, over $9M has been invested in this. The reason he's unable to get another location is because he pays himself too much, he pays his consultants masquerading as management too much (in dilutive stock) and he has lost all credibility with his own investors and the market in general.
At this point Parsi doesn't even care about expansion. If it happens, great, but he's more concerned with keeping the lights on and securing a $250k+ salary plus benefits. If that comes at the expense of the shareholders, so be it.
That's one of the criticisms I had/have with Missling.
There isn't a short cabal going after AVXL today. Feuerstein, Fonteneau, Renaur, Michaud, Sykes, all those guys have moved on years ago. The market is valuing AVXL as it should -- an early stage bio with a drug that may or may not work and no other revenue. If/when more data supports FDA approval odds, the price will go up., but many institutions aren't going to bet the farm just quite yet. Nobody will lose their job not investing in AVXL at $3 if it goes to $300. But many jobs will be lost investing in it at $3 if it goes to 0.
The problem with Missling was that he didn't handle the -real- short attack when he had the chance. He was too nice. Too diplomatic. By the time he realized taking the high road wasn't the right call, there was already an SEC investigation and the shorts had tanked the stock, to which it never recovered. And here we are, three years later.
It doesn't matter in the long run, the stock price will eventually rise or fall depending on the value of the drug, but it was a major misstep for Missling to not aggressively counter the short and distort tactics when they were occurring.
Happy to oblige.
Lots of people here hang on every word in those positive Seeking Alpha articles. I remember the first time I read a post here about it, my first thought was, "Who the heck is Lane Simonian?"
Maybe I'll post something to Seeking Alpha for AVXL about the charts, and why $2.80 is such a pivotal point for the current stock price (along with $3.32).
Of course not. He did, I think, give himself the option to purchase shares at something like a fraction of a penny, basically to ensure that he never gets diluted. He's also paying himself $200K+ benefits and perks like a company car, for what??? And who wants to bet that the car is a luxury brand?
Parsi is a joke. Guy is dumb as rocks, too. Just listen to him trying to string together an articulate sentence. He's unable to do it.
Seeking Alpha is a joke. It's no different than this message board or any others -- just a bunch of amateurs giving their opinions.
Professional analysts don't spend their time posting on Seeking Alpha.
That's why I laugh whenever that Lane Simonian guy pops up. I love it when he does though, his posts usually spike the share price a few pips, but it's all conjecture and speculation.
Even the lead researcher hasn't the faintest clue how the blinded trials will pan out. He may have an opinion, as we all do, that's more informed based on the data he's seen,,,but anyone who says that Anavex is going to succeed in the P3 trials has a motive. Just as anyone who says it isn't going to succeed.
Nobody knows. And that's what makes this such a fun gamble.
Because if the drug works, it doesn't matter how trustworthy the CEO is. Same goes for if the drug doesn't work.
Missling totally botched the opportunity he had when this was trading at $15/share to a) do an offering around the $8.50 level, and b) extinguish the shorts during the middle of their attack in November 2015.
I want AVXL to succeed. I just believe, as I always have, that there are better CEOs out there to run the company at this stage in its development.
GIGL is so deep in the red it's almost comical.
Who wants to start the countdown for when the ticker changes to GIGLQ?
Yup. Philip Gay puts very little time into GIGL. There's no way he can actually do the job of a CEO with all of his other ventures.
I agree, I don't think Missling is trustworthy either. But I've never liked him as a CEO, I think he's looking to draw this out as long as possible to collect his salary because he knows the odds are stacked against any ALZ drug being successful. I also think he isn't acting in shareholder's best interests by exploring partnerships before it's too late. It's easy to be aggressive with someone else's money, which is what he is doing. He doesn't have any skin in the game, in terms of him having put up his money into AVXL. He's riding on house money at this point with his options and shares.
Eh, I think Missling would like to have the trials up and running by then...
But remember a while back when everyone thought that Retts trial would be going by EOY 2017?
It happens when it happens, but as I said before, I think Missling's full attention and priority right now is on A273.
where will they get the funds to start those trials? will they do an offering? revise terms of deal with LPC to sell more shares?
Anavex doesn't have the luxury of just being able to start new trials for other drugs whenever it feels like it, not without reallocating those funds from somewhere else.
I get the impression that AVXL is all in on 273. If/when A273 produces revenue, it'll start focusing on the other pipeline options.
A371 may be the more effective drug (according to Martin Shkreli, it was, but take anything from that guy with a grain of salt).
But it doesn't matter because that's not the horse that Missling is betting the house on. If A273 fails, there isn't going to be any money to advance 371. And it'll be so much harder to convince investors to re-fund the coffers in order to test the other compounds.
Chances are, that A371 will be auctioned for pennies and some other company will reap the benefits. We're all in on 271 getting approval. If it happens, there will be sufficient proceeds to do any number of other trials, including advancing A371.
The funny thing is that literally anyone with $3M can put Giggles n Hugs out of business permanently, by beating them to market and opening locations in San Francisco, Seattle, and Boston.
Parsi likes to boast that he has all these relationships with the mall owners, who love to roll out the red carpet for Giggles, which I think by now everyone knows is a complete joke of an overstatement. The mall owners couldn't care less if they're dealing with Joey Amir Parsi or Mr. Magoo, the only thing they care about is whether as a tenant you have the ability to pay rent on time. Even things like foot traffic are secondary -- malls these days may love to have foot traffic but they're not going to spend a premium to get it when there's no guarantee those extra visitors actually shop at the other stores. They're not stupid -- they know that many parents will drive to Giggles n Hugs and drive home right after.
It doesn't take much to put Giggles out of business. My business partners and I are seriously considering doing so. There was a time when I was considering franchising three GIGL locations. Now, I think I'd rather just start fresh with my own idea that's the same, but better. That's the beauty of his idea...Parsi has basically provided us with a free case study of what works, what doesn't, and the valuation models based on each location's profit margins.
Of course, I wouldn't be an idiot and go public prematurely, or pay myself $300k for doing nothing, or try to name-drop every celebrity who visited knowing that they value their privacy and won't return if they feel like the owner is a second away from calling the paparazzi to come take their photos.