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LAD +30 to 322, a nice quarter. I'm still holding my shares, albeit a very small position. Forward PE is around 9 and analyst estimates will be rising for this auto dealer.
Consumer confidence is at a two year high, the labor market is strong and wages are rising. For example, UPS drivers just got a big wage increase effective immediately. Consumer spending will be fine, imo.
https://news.yahoo.com/u-consumer-confidence-jumps-two-140730270.html
https://www.npr.org/2023/07/25/1189956641/ups-union-calls-off-strike-threat-after-securing-pay-raises-for-workers
PE's are actually very reasonable if one excludes the high flying megacaps. Loads of stocks are trading at single digit PEs and the S&P Small and MidCap Indexes are at below average PEs. That's where I'm finding stocks to buy.
I think we're due for a 5 to 10% correction, but nothing more than that barring a major recession.
IB expands overnight trading to 10,000 stocks - their system provides some degree of liquidity, but I wonder how much ? I'll be checking out some bid/ask spreads.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3990596-interactive-brokers-expands-overnight-trading-hours-to-over-10000-stocks-etfs
Mike Wilson issues Mea Culpa and apologizes to Morgan Stanley clients - he remains bearish but lifted his S&P500 price target by 800 points to 3900 -
Wilson said stocks had run out of steam in December, and the S&P 500 would fall to between 3,000 to 3,200.
Instead, the S&P 500 is up about 18% this year, significantly better than the annual average return of about 10% over the past 30 years. It closed at 4,554 on July 24.
Wilson apologized for his wrong-way bet in a note to Morgan Stanley clients on July 24.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/wall-street-analyst-admits-we-were-wrong
SGMA +.54 to 5.87, still cheap compared to late 2021 when the stock hit $17+ after reporting Oct Q2 EPS of $0.69.
I'm holding on .... hard to predict what kind of earnings they'll post for July Q1, but they won't be reporting until September, so plenty of time for the stock to rally some more on momentum and speculation of another strong quarter.
The oil market is tightening -
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Climb-To-Multi-Month-High-As-Market-Eyes-Tightening.html
CPE, VTLE
VTLE +2.87 to 51.95, benefiting from surging oil prices and an analyst price target increase - I added a few shares today. The stock remains dirt cheap, imho.
fly -
Vital Energy price target raised to $119 from $112 at Stifel
Stifel analyst Derrick Whitfield raised the firm's price target on Vital Energy to $119 from $112 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Ahead of Q2 earnings, Stifel is updating its commodity estimates to reflect strip prices through 2025, maintaining its long-term WTI and HH prices, and revising its forecasts, the analyst tells investors. Further, the firm expects weaker earnings from upstream stocks, improving outlooks for the upstream and biofuels sectors, and broader macro conditions to support the energy sector's outperformance after Q2.
RITM +.23 to 9.96 after announcing an acquisition and preliminary Q2 earnings .... I'm not enthusiastic about the SCU acquisition, but the Q2 earnings were great. GAAP EPS of ~$0.74 and distributable EPS of $0.62 including a $0.20 gain on MSR sales. TBV rose 4% sequentially to ~$12.16.
https://www.rithmcap.com/media/gxnjdh3g/ritm_scu-investor-presentation_vf.pdf
SGMA and FRD action bodes well for small cap earnings season just ahead !
SGMA +.55 to 5.10, thanks again for the earnings alert yesterday morning ! I'm still holding ..... but wish I had bought more shares. Plenty were available in the $4.20's.
NYFANG down a whopping 4.6% today, led lower by a 10% decline in TSLA and 8% in NFLX. Maybe we've finally seen the top of the megacap rally ?
FNGD was up 13.9% today !
CVNA -8 to 47, I'm still short this piggy. It's a very small position, so I can afford to the risk of a possible bounce back, but I think it ratchets lower on profit taking after an undeserved 400% gain in 12 weeks and nearly 1000% YTD !
CVNA -7 to 48, breaking down nicely. Maybe I'll regret not having shorted more, but shorting anything in this market is risky.
SGMA is a trading position for me. Buys and sells will depend on the stock action. The more volatile, the better.
TSLA -17 to 274 after beating estimates, but concerns mount over the steady decline in both gross and operating margins -
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-ai-technology-71136a4c?st=08p0xb0kot4r878&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
CVNA -3 to 53, I just shorted a few .... chart looks toppy and this high flyer seems due for a sharp correction. jmho
SGMA Q4 operating results look great, albeit mostly untaxed. Too bad they retain a 19% ownership interest in the disastrous Wagz business which will presumably continue to generate losses for discontinued operations.
I picked up a few shares in pre-market. Thanks for the earnings alert.
Wade - CPRI plunged in February after missing estimates by 18% and cutting guidance .... the figures are in my initial post. I'll be interested to see the June Q1 earnings due out on 8/8. Maybe they'll cut guidance again, but I think some bad news is priced in already, so if they maintain guidance the stock could rally.
CPRI +.56 to 37.04, looks attractive, down a whopping 47% from its Feb high of $69.25. The stock plunged in Feb after they reported Dec Q3 EPS of $1.84, 18% below estimates. They also lowered Mar Q4 guidance to $0.95 and initiated FY24 guidance at $6.40 versus estimates for $7.24. In late May they reported Q4 at $0.97 and maintained $6.40 guidance for FY24, albeit backend loaded.
The stock looks cheap at under 6x forward guidance and the chart looks encouraging with solid support at around $35. I like the risk/reward and recently picked up a small position.
Capri Holdings is a multinational fashion holding company. The company sells clothes, shoes, watches, handbags, and other accessories.
The first report from the "Magnificent 7" comes from TSLA after the bell today .... it will be interesting to see the earnings and how the stock reacts. NFLX is another one to watch after hours.
The YTD gains are stunning -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
NVDA 225% 474.94 146.14
META 159% 312.05 120.34
TSLA 138% 293.34 123.18
AMZN 58% 132.83 84
MSFT 50% 359.49 239.82
AAPL 49% 193.73 129.93
GOOG 40% 124.08 88.73
AVERAGE RETURN = 103%
CUBI +2.84 to 39.84, on a terrific run lately, now up a stunning 480% from the banking panic low in March .... also up a solid 41% YTD versus a LOSS of 20% for KRE, the S&P Regional Banking Index.
I trimmed my position today, although the stock is arguably still undervalued at below 7x 2023 EPS guidance and a discount to TBV. I'll probably continue to scale out slowly.
S&P 500 Industry Groups YTD performance ..... these are market cap weighted, so beware the huge impact a single megacap can have .... for instance TSLA is up about 130% YTD and with a market cap of roughly 7x Ford and GM combined, it dominates the Automobile industry group -
YTD Performance
Automobiles 110%
Semiconductors & Equipment 78%
Interactive Media & Services 66%
Tech Hardware, Storage & Periph's 48%
Software 44%
Construction & Engineering 40%
Household Durables 35%
Construction Materials 31%
Passenger Airlines 30%
Multiline Retail 30%
Trading Companies & Distributors 28%
Entertainment 24%
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 23%
Automobile Components 21%
Building Products 20%
Consumer Finance 19%
Commercial Services & Supplies 18%
Electrical Equipment 18%
Media 16%
Air Freight & Logistics 15%
IT Services 15%
Health Care Equipment & Supplies 14%
Industrial Conglomerates 13%
Machinery 12%
Residential REITs 12%
Real Estate Manage & Develop 11%
Professional Services 11%
Communications Equipment 11%
Electronic Equipment, Instruments 10%
Metals & Mining 9%
Diversified Financial Services 9%
Chemicals 7%
Distributors 5%
Leisure Products 5%
Food & Staples Retailing 5%
Ground Transportation 5%
Energy Equipment & Services 5%
Specialty Retail 4%
Beverages 1%
Capital Markets 1%
Industrial REITs 0%
Health Care REITs 0%
Hotel & Resort REITs 0%
Specialized REITs 0%
Office REITs 0%
Retail REITs 0%
Aerospace & Defense -1%
Household Products -1%
Insurance -2%
Tobacco -2%
Banks -5%
Containers & Packaging -5%
Food Products -5%
Pharmaceuticals -6%
Life Sciences Tools & Services -6%
Electric Utilities -6%
Multi-Utilities -6%
Textiles Apparel & Luxury Goods -7%
Health Care Providers & Services -8%
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -9%
Biotechnology -10%
Personal Products -22%
Diversified Telecom Services -24%
Indp Power&Renewable Electricity -26%
average gain 11%
I think T and VZ among other telcos are rather toxic now. Lawyers are surely gathering like vultures, planning to file humongous lawsuits. I wouldn't touch the stocks. You were wise to get out promptly. jmho
T -.66 to 13.84, getting hammered after analyst downgrades - is there a price you'd get back in ? Or is the potential lead cable sheathing liability too concerning ?
Here's the WSJ article that exposed the cable concerns -
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lead-cables-telecoms-att-toxic-5b34408b?st=m90kcc19y1ywnb6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
fly -
AT&T downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi
Citi analyst Michael Rollins downgraded AT&T to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $16, down from $22. The analyst believes the telecommunication industry's historical use of lead sheathed cabling is likely to remain an overhang for the stocks and valuations for at least a few months and potentially longer until the market can better measure the financial risk. As a result, Citi downgraded three telecommunications operators. Copper network deployed with possible lead sheathing could be a significant percentage of the legacy network deployed nationally with varying exposures for each company, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says it is unable to specifically quantify financial risks for wireline telcos from the concerns raised by the Wall Street Journal articles. Citi believes most of the wireline telcos will be subject to a valuation discount based on its current scenario analysis. It remains concerned for further near-term downside risk and views the uncertainty as an overhang for the time being.
AT&T downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Philip Cusick downgraded AT&T to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $17, down from $22. Based on recent commentary from management lowering estimates for wireless and broadband, the analyst believes AT&T is facing "marginally more pressure" in Mobility and Consumer Wireline as well as ongoing pressures in Business Wireline. While AT&T shares are trading at a record-low valuation, repeated downward revisions for its key wireless and fiber growth businesses, the high interest rate environment, and new uncertainty regarding lead sheathed cables "will limit any substantial rebound," the analyst tells investors in a research note. In addition, the firm says potential liability from the copper lead sheathing situation is unquantifiable and a long-term overhang for the stock.
Earning season picks up this week with 60 S&P500 companies reporting including TSLA, IBM, GS, SCHW, NFLX and JBHT. It will be interesting.
The S&P Small Cap 600 Index has 156 stocks with forward PEs of under 10 - here's the list from a screener for those who'd like to check any out. I own several on the list, including CUBI, MHO, MTH, KOP, ASIX, ENVA, NYCB, NEX, CPE, VTLE, ARI, RC, HZO, SBH and SAH. They're sorted by industry sector -
Symbol Price Fwd PE Industry Name
WNC 23.91 5.7 Auto - Truck Original Parts Wabash National Corp
BKU 24 8.1 Banks - Major Regional BankUnited Inc
FFBC 22.06 7.8 Banks - Midwest First Finl Bncp [Oh]
TBBK 36.1 9.3 Banks - Northeast The Bancorp Inc
STBA 28.4 7.7 Banks - Northeast S&T Bancorp Inc
TRST 29.35 8.7 Banks - Northeast Trustco Bank Corp NY
FULT 12.55 7.5 Banks - Northeast Fulton Financial Cor
CASH 52.59 8.6 Banks - Northeast Pathward Financial Inc
FCF 13.26 7.6 Banks - Northeast First Commonwealth Financial Corp
EGBN 23.83 7.6 Banks - Northeast Eagle Bancorp Inc
AUB 27.86 9.8 Banks - Northeast Atlantic Union Bancshares Corp
OFG 28.41 7.8 Banks - Northeast OFG Bancorp
INDB 49.84 8.9 Banks - Northeast Independent Bk Corp
NBHC 32.98 8.4 Banks - Southeast National Bank Holdings Corp
FBP 13.24 8.6 Banks - Southeast First Bancorp
RNST 28.36 9.2 Banks - Southeast Renasant Corp
IBTX 37.65 9.7 Banks - Southeast Independent Bank Group
TRMK 22.52 8.9 Banks - Southeast Trustmark Corp
DCOM 19.33 6.9 Banks - Southeast Dime Community Bancshares Inc
STEL 23.2 8.2 Banks - Southeast Stellar Bancorp Inc
CUBI 36.2 5.8 Banks - Southeast Customers Bancorp
ABCB 37.2 8.3 Banks - Southeast Ameris Bancorp
VBTX 19 6.3 Banks - Southeast Veritex Holdings
SBSI 26.78 9.1 Banks - Southwest Southside Bancshares
BANC 12.42 9.3 Banks - Southwest First Pactrust Bancorp
PACW 8.7 7.2 Banks - West Pacwest Bancorp
WABC 42.36 6.8 Banks - West Westamerica Bancorp
HOPE 8.97 7 Banks - West Hope Bancorp Inc
CVBF 14.86 8.7 Banks - West Cvb Financial Corp
CPF 16.56 7.3 Banks - West Central Pacific Financial Company
HAFC 16.52 5.9 Banks - West Hanmi Financial Cp
FHB 19.5 9.3 Banks - West First Hawaiian Inc
WAFD 27.79 6.9 Banks - West Washington Federal
PFBC 59.16 6 Banks - West Preferred Bank LA
AMCX 13.12 2 Broadcast - Radio & TV AMC Networks Cl A
WGO 69.28 9 Building - Mobile Homes & RV Winnebago Industries
MHO 90.43 6.7 Building - Residential & Comm M/I Homes
MTH 144.36 9 Building - Residential & Comm Meritage Corp
GMS 71.05 8.5 Building Prds Retail - Wsale Gms Inc
DLX 18.63 7 Business Office Products Deluxe Corp
GEO 7.48 7.7 Business Services Geo Group Inc
DISH 7.07 5.3 Cable TV Dish Network Corp
KOP 35.78 7.9 Chemical - Diversified Koppers Holdings Inc
ASIX 37.79 9.4 Chemical - Specialty Advansix Inc
MATV 16.04 8.4 Chemical - Specialty Mativ Holdings Inc
HCC 39.09 4.4 Coal Warrior Met Coal Inc
CEIX 65.04 3.3 Coal Consol Energy Inc
COOP 52.36 9.6 Finance - Consumer Loans Mr.Cooper Group Inc
ECPG 51.51 8.8 Finance - Consumer Loans Encore Capital Group
NAVI 19.1 5.8 Finance - Consumer Loans Navient Cp
ENVA 54.99 7.6 Finance - Consumer Loans Enova International Inc
AX 43 7.9 Finance - Misc Services Axos Financial Inc
SNEX 90.82 9.3 Finance - Misc Services Stonex Group Inc
EFC 13.94 7.7 Finance - Mortgage & Rel Svs Ellington Financial Llc
HFWA 17.31 8.3 Finance - Savings & Loan Heritage Financial
NYCB 11.84 9.4 Finance - Savings & Loan New York Community Bancorp
WSFS 39.35 9.1 Finance - Savings & Loan WSFS Financial Corp
BRKL 9.68 8.7 Finance - Savings & Loan Brookline Bancorp
BHLB 22.64 9.1 Finance - Savings & Loan Berkshire Hills Bancorp
PFS 17.23 8.3 Finance - Savings & Loan Provident Financial Services
BANR 47.27 7.2 Finance - Savings & Loan Banner Corp
PPBI 22.1 8.7 Finance - Savings & Loan Pacific Premier Bncp
BFH 36.17 3 Financial Transaction Services Bread Financial Hldgs Inc
SPTN 21.75 10 Food Items - Wholesale Spartannash Company
MLKN 17.48 9.7 Furniture Millerknoll Inc
OI 23 6.8 Glass Products O-I Glass Inc
SCSC 29.6 7.1 Industrial Services Scansource Inc
AEL 53.01 8.1 Insurance - Life American Equity Investment Life
RDN 25.8 7.8 Insurance - Multi Line Radian Group Inc
NMIH 26.36 7.2 Insurance - Proprty & Casualty Nmi Holdings Inc
UVE 15.41 7.5 Insurance - Proprty & Casualty Universal Insurance Holdings Inc
CCSI 34.3 7.8 Internet - Software Consensus Cloud Solutions
VSCO 19.39 8.4 Leisure & Recreational Prdcts Victorias Secret & Co.
ASO 57.3 8.5 Leisure & Recreational Prdcts Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc
VSTO 29.76 6.1 Leisure & Recreational Prdcts Vista Outdoor Inc
TWI 11.95 6.3 Machinery - Farm Titan International
DXPE 37.3 9.7 Machinery - General Industrial Dxp Enterprise
COLL 21.23 4.5 Medical - Drugs Collegium Pharma
EMBC 20.49 7.9 Medical Services Embecta Corp
MODV 49.97 8.4 Medical Services Modivcare Inc
MD 13.73 9.7 Medical Services Pediatrix Medical Group Inc
SLCA 13.46 7.5 Mining - Misc U.S. Silica Holdings Inc
HP 38.31 9.3 Oil & Gas - Drilling Helmerich & Payne
PTEN 14.08 8.4 Oil & Gas - Drilling Patterson-Uti Energy
NBR 111.04 8.6 Oil & Gas - Drilling Nabors Industries
BTE 3.59 7.1 Oil - C$ Exploration & Product Baytex Energy Corp
NEX 10.59 4.5 Oil - Field Services Nextier Oilfield Solutions Inc
PUMP 9.49 6.1 Oil - Field Services Propetro Holding Corp
CVI 31.31 8.2 Oil - Refining and Marketing Cvr Energy Inc
PARR 27.01 5.8 Oil - Refining and Marketing Par Petroleum Corp
SM 33.66 6.2 Oil - US Exploration & Product Sm Energy Company
CRC 47.09 7.9 Oil - US Exploration & Product California Resources Corp
CIVI 72.2 6.2 Oil - US Exploration & Product Civitas Resources Inc
NOG 36.58 4.2 Oil - US Exploration & Product Northern Oil and Gas
CPE 35.29 4.3 Oil - US Exploration & Product Callon Petroleum Company
VTLE 49.23 2.5 Other Alt Energy Vital Energy Inc
SLVM 43.89 5.7 Paper & Related Products Sylvamo Corp
VRTV 129.08 6.3 Paper & Related Products Veritiv Corp
REZI 18.15 9.1 Protection - Safety Resideo Technologies Inc
GRBK 55.47 9.5 Real Estate Developers Green Brick Partners
PMT 13.63 7.6 Real Estate Operations Pennymac Mortgage Investment Trust
CWK 9.6 8.5 Real Estate Operations Cushman & Wakefield Plc
BDN 4.72 4.1 REIT - Equity Trust Other Brandywine Realty Trust
IIPR 75 9.5 REIT - Equity Trust Other Innovative Industrial Properties
PEB 14.18 9.3 REIT - Equity Trust Other Pebblebrook Hotel Trust
DEI 13.97 7.4 REIT - Equity Trust Other Douglas Emmett
SVC 8.97 5 REIT - Equity Trust Other Service Properties Trust
CXW 9.55 6.9 REIT - Equity Trust Other Corecivic Inc
INN 6.57 7.5 REIT - Equity Trust Other Summit Hotel Properties
UNIT 5.17 3.7 REIT - Equity Trust Other Uniti Group Inc
HPP 5.45 3.8 REIT - Equity Trust Other Hudson Pacific Properties
OUT 16.22 9.3 REIT - Equity Trust Other Outfront Media Inc
SLG 32.54 5.9 REIT - Equity Trust Other SL Green Realty Corp
GNL 10.73 7.9 REIT - Equity Trust Other Global Net Lease Inc
CLDT 9.71 8.3 REIT - Equity Trust Other Chatham Lodging Trust REIT
XHR 12.89 9.6 REIT - Equity Trust Other Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc
DRH 8.17 8.4 REIT - Equity Trust Other Diamondrock Hospitality Company
OPI 8.26 2 REIT - Equity Trust Resident Office Properties Income Trust
AHH 12.39 9.9 REIT - Equity Trust Resident Armada Hoffler Properties Inc
AAT 20.87 9 REIT - Equity Trust Retail American Assets Trust
MAC 11.98 6.7 REIT - Equity Trust Retail Macerich Company
ARR 5.16 4.6 REIT - Mortgage Trusts Armour Residential R
ABR 15.85 8.1 REIT - Mortgage Trusts Arbor Realty Trust
IVR 11.37 2.4 REIT - Mortgage Trusts Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc
ARI 11.74 7.3 REIT - Mortgage Trusts Apollo Commercial Real Estate
RC 11.66 7.8 REIT - Mortgage Trusts Ready Capital Corp
KREF 12.9 9.7 REIT - Mortgage Trusts KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc
FBRT 14.53 8 REIT - Mortgage Trusts Franklin Bsp Realty Trust Inc
DBI 9.77 7.9 Retail - Apparel & Shoes Designer Brands Inc
CHS 5.63 7.4 Retail - Apparel & Shoes Chico's Fas
HIBB 37.67 5.1 Retail - Apparel & Shoes Hibbett Inc
SCVL 23.24 6.7 Retail - Apparel & Shoes Shoe Carnival Inc
HVT 33.01 8.2 Retail - Home Furniture Haverty Furniture Companies
ETD 29.29 9.7 Retail - Home Furniture Ethan Allen Interiors Inc
MOV 27.04 9.6 Retail - Jewelry Movado Group Inc
SIG 72.12 7.6 Retail - Jewelry Signet Jewelers Ltd
HZO 36.97 7.1 Retail - Misc & Diversified Marinemax Inc
ODP 47.97 9.6 Retail - Misc & Diversified Office Depot
SBH 11.8 6.4 Retail - Misc & Diversified Sally Beauty Holdings
DIN 59.88 9.1 Retail - Restaurants Dineequity Inc
BLMN 27.9 9.1 Retail - Restaurants Bloomin' Brands Inc
SAH 51.67 7.6 Retail - Wsale Auto & Trucks Sonic Automotive
ABG 248.3 7.9 Retail - Wsale Auto & Trucks Asbury Automotive Group Inc
GPI 264.65 6.6 Retail - Wsale Auto & Trucks Group 1 Automotive
ATGE 38.15 8.7 Schools Adtalem Global Education Inc
PRDO 12.56 7.1 Schools Perdoceo Education Corp
WWW 13.64 9.2 Shoes and Related Apparel Wolverine World Wide
CAL 25.37 6.3 Shoes and Related Apparel Caleres Inc
LUMN 2.09 5.9 Technology Services Lumen Technologies Inc
ADEA 11.77 8.8 Technology Services Adeia Inc
KTB 40.12 8.3 Textile - Apparel Kontoor Brands Inc
OXM 103.25 9.4 Textile - Apparel Oxford Industries
GIII 19.88 7 Textile - Apparel G-III Apparel Gp
GES 19.95 7 Textile - Apparel Guess Inc
LPG 25.7 6.8 Transportation - Ship Dorian Lpg Ltd
WIRE 179.54 7.8 Wire & Cable Products Encore Wire Cp
VIOO
Aside from being overweight the homebuilders and MREITs, I own several very cheap O&G producers including CPE, VTLE and SBOW. Others such as CVE, PDCE and NOG also look undervalued.
In other sectors I own CVS, AER, CUBI, HZO, ONEW, KSS, CMRE, F, GM, ULH, AMRK, HBM, ENVA, HDSN, TECK, MCFT, NEX and ARCB among numerous other small positions.
Check a few out when you find the time.
PE ratios are being skewed higher by the "magnificent 7" megacaps. Excluding those, PEs are much more reasonable especially for the small and midcaps. Eventually the megacaps will correct sharply, but who knows when ? Most of my holdings have single digit forward PEs and look undervalued. I don't own the high PE megacaps, but I wouldn't want to short them either.
SPX
VTLE - good catch on the huge short interest. A lot of the small cap O&G producers, including CPE, SBOW, PTEN, NOG among others, have large short interest, typically 10 to 20% of float, but VTLE stands out at 24%. Maybe there are concerns about reserve life ? For crude oil that stands at around 8 years as of 12/31/22 which is on the low side, though I doubt it justifies a forward PE of around 2.
Wade - this market might be due for a major correction of 10% or more, but by common definition we're in a bull market, the standard being a 20% rally from the lows. Since the October bottom of 3491 the S&P500 is up 29%. Inevitably there'll be another bear market, but I doubt that it's imminent unless we get a deep recession later this year or next. The soft landing scenario is getting more likely.
I think we'll get at least a 3 to 5% correction soon, but I'm not going to try to time it. However my cash position is steadily growing and I would welcome a pullback to buy back some of the shares that I've sold.
INMD +4.48 to 45.22 after raising guidance -
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inmode-expects-second-quarter-2023-110000255.html
I also took profits much too soon !
S&P500 +48 to 4487, the market sure like the CPI data !
Small and Mid Caps continue to look undervalued with the S&P600 Small Cap Index trading at just a 13.6 forward PE and the S&P400 Mid Cap Index at 14.1, well below historic averages. There are plenty of stocks still worth buying.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stockmktperatio.pdf
Core inflation lower than expected -
briefing -
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% increase in May. The core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% month-over-month in June following a 0.4% increase in May.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/inflation-rose-just-0point2percent-in-june-less-than-expected-as-consumers-get-a-break-from-price-increases.html
OPTT (0.60) I remember owning Ocean Power Technologies many years ago thinking their ocean wave electricity generating buoys would become a commercial success. I bailed out when I lost patience. Finally their major shareholder is also losing patience .... I find it incredible that they've been able to keep operating for decades by issuing ever more shares. Who would buy this crap ??? They deserve to go bankrupt. The shares are down 99.9% since their 1994 IPO.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paragon-technologies-calls-ocean-power-140500077.html
EIA releases oil inventories on Wednesday's at 10:30am, natgas on Thursday's at 10:30am.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Bullish-Sentiment-Is-Slowly-Building-In-Oil-Markets.html
Goldman base case is $86 crude oil be year end -
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Currie-Oils-Rally-Is-Unloved.html
Crude Oil +2 to $75/bbl, on a nice run recently, up from $67 just two weeks ago .... small cap producers like CPE, VTLE and SBOW remain very cheap with forward PEs of around 3 and 4.
KSS +1.38 to 25.44, looks moderately attractive, down nearly 30% from the Feb high of $35+. Kohls handily beat estimates for Apr Q1 and maintained annual guidance for EPS of $2.10 to $2.70. Dividend yield is currently a hefty 7.8%, although there's some risk it could get cut if we enter a recession. I recently picked up a small position and am writing covered calls and rolling them over weekly. The premiums are fairly high for a retail stock.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to be rebalanced to reduce weighting of megacaps -
https://www.investors.com/news/nasdaq-100-plans-special-rebalance-to-curb-dominance-of-magnificent-seven/
QQQ
ARI and BXMT are two commercial mortgage REITs that I own, yielding around 12%, but I've been selling gradually into the strength, hoping to buy back lower.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171947392&txt2find=ari