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Those big bold red letters would indicate danger; a warning!!!! Should we all sell our stock in anticpation of the results of your inquisition?
It's almost a 4% trade fee to trade that few shares. Thus it was likely done just to post a negative pre-open. That was my point.
But I was really looking at it as pre-split $, so it looked like a 15% trade fee to me...
4% because you need the money... yeah. Your right. Could have been.
Who would sell 33 shares? That is what my pretrade shows.
Someone manipulating.
Your right Scott... I thought it was just 3 trading days above $3... it's 5.
So my "Technically it could be Monday" the other day should have been "Technically, it could be Wednesday". But end of next week seems more likely.
They said 5-10 business days after the 5 day $3+ period... so from what they said it should be at least until the following Tue or Wed. But... agreed, Missling seems to always be ahead of stated schedule estimates.
170 posts in less than 3 hours!!! I was off writing emails to friends and relatives about the opportunity. Glad I got all my remaining body parts back into the bus a few days ago. Just I wish I had waited 1 day.
I think you are probably right about an IRA. No need to mess with it.
It probably only matters with margin accounts, if it works at all. But I will do it with my non-margin but non-IRA account also, just in case.
I have TD Ameritrade. I won't be able to do it till later in the day when the split shares transfer is complete. They say to just watch the ticker change from the number to the symbol on my position page.
I'm not the savy investor who should be replying... however; Anavex stated that the large AS was in part a means of discouraging hostile takeover attempts. That would make the AS an overestimate of the likely cap down the road. Further, the stated plan has been to partner soon. If that happens, as most believe it will, then that reduces the likelyhood of eating into the available AS.
I use the fully diluted OS... about 160M/4. but I probably have less background than you here.
Ok, not right now. Can't trade pre-market, but if it lets me during trading hours, gonna put all my shares in every account up for sale at... some very high value, more than 4X I would really want... 4X just in case the trading machine is not working right yet.
Ie... $300/share.
Just in case a short raid is planned sometime this week... you realize how important the rest of this week is, right?
Just in case. And just in case putting shares up for sale at a very high price removes them from the available shorting pool... I am going to do that for all my shares. Margin account and other accounts.
I know it doesn't work... but it won't hurt anything. This is really important. Anavex and the big dogs on our side probably have a ton of dry powder waiting for any short raid... ie Fri close, but just in case it helps, I am, right now, going to put all shares in all accounts up for sale at as high a price as they will allow me.
Jason might be fronting big pharma on this one.
Never mind. We have hockey masks to deal with. Technically, it could be as soon as Monday!
I hope he's not just faking it... suddenly going to come-to with his hockey mask back on, just in time to fngup the works.
You have to flip back and forth between your last two messages/replies and his posts to fully appreciate your replys. Good stuff!!!! Rolling!!!!
Whatcyoutalkinboutwillis?
I would have to agree. I can only think of one apparent professional pumper on the board and he seems to be a pretty good guy to me. Way more accurate and relevant than a typical paid pumper. Resourcefull. Very useful.
Maybe once the extension was in place they found that the regulatory people liked it. Maybe discussions about a long tail led Missling to think that an even longer tale might be of great use down the road in when asking for approval or early approval. Or maybe regulatory advised them such.
I don't think it means that they would wait another 6 months to move forward in the trials... Unless they thought they had a good chance at early approval... at least in Australia.
Or maybe it was a typo.
Or maybe the enlightened patients on Anavex 2-73 Plus organized and assisted the remaining unrecruited patients in negotiating for even more Anavex 2-73 Plus (for a cut of their Anavex 2-73 Plus).
Did the shorts get advance knowledge of the R/S? Is that what inspired the raid yesterday?
There were other possible reasons why yesterday may have been chosen, but it might have been primarily the R/S (but not advance warning of the announcement of imminent application to uplist and of the upcoming data release).
If the R/S inspired that attack, where did they get that early info?
I couldn't trade this morning at TD Ameritrade. The trade function did not recognize AVXLD. It does now, though I have not tried to trade, so can't be sure.
My position info is still all messed up with a number instead of symbol, total shares still reflecting AVXL not AVXLD.
There was definitely a period where I could not trade and others have talked about a 5 day period where they do not expect to be able to trade. Hopefull they are wrong. But even if it was just part of a day, why in the world would they make it randomly based on time to transfer shares?
This seems like easy one. The rule should be that all trading of shares is halted for some set period while the transfers happen. That way everyone gets halted and restarted at the same time. Dark trading might still happen, but that is a different issue. I don't get it.
Of course everything changes by a factor of 4! Up or down as appropriate. It would be absolute chaos if it didn't and nobody would be in the stock market. Sorry to be a little sarcastic in some of my replies to questions about this... but just don't worry about that stuff.
What I personally don't understand is why trading is not halted for every share of AVXL/D during the transfers. That would simplify everything and would be far more fair.
No, you should have 1/4 the shares AVXLD as AVXL, but each worth 4 times as much. If you do have the same number of shares, that is an error that you need to address ASAP. I will be setting up an account in the Cayman Islands where you can transfer your excess shares to avoid penalties.
For me, ihub is redirecting from AVXL to AVXLD. That is, when I use my old bookmark to get to it.
NASDAQ says "This stock is currently not trading.". I realize it's not NASDAQ yet, but that site usually lists OTC's. Maybe all the trading is within each broker mini network.
I think trading for OTC's generally happens within seperate little networks, then the networks trade with each other... or something like that. But for now that trading between the mini networks is halted. And they can't report. So the SP may differ for each broker. Though two brokers could be on the same mini network.
I don't know this stuff. But bringing up the topic, maybe someone who does know could clarify.
TD currently shows $7.07 at 91.5K. I doubt the volume is really that low.
It is very complicated. Maybe an older brother could explain it to you. I don't have time. But the value of each share (ie % of the company owned) goes up in exact proportion to the reduction in the number of shares.
I know big words like proportion can make you dizzy. I guess I just like showing off. Again... your older brother who has done fractions can explain it to you. And he will have more time than me. I am needing to prepare for all th excitement of an uplist and a presentation in Spain about very good results for an early trial on a possible cure for Alzheimer's. You know, like your Nana has.
NVIV: Was there an uplist? Was it announced at the same time as the R/S?
Thank goodness! Glad they had an ear open and stuck around to do edits.
Don't know that it is all seamless, but I would be willing to bet all my spare $ (0) that it is seamless. If not, it would be chaos. Chaos that would have been addressed decades ago.
20 days or sooner says the PR.
Did board approval obligate Missling to move forward with the R/S, or did it just give him the option?
Pregame and 5th quarter quarterbacking from me: An uplist before the conference is the safe way to go. Especially with somewhat of an early peak at the data.
This ensures the big dogs are in the auction when the excitement peaks. That ensures enough volume to blow through the warrants and beyond.
If they waited for organic... it is possible the uplist could lag the conference long enough for the big dogs to be out through the excitement.
It looked like organic was going to be a cinch until the short attack today. Missling may have had the R/S plan all setup, but waited to see if it was necessary. Seeing the SP drop today may have made up his mind to pull the trigger. Hopefully that simultaneous uplist is also part of the plan.
If people sell off, knee-jerk, then it will be into the hands of the institutions. As someone said earlier today, this could really trim the float.
I think it is 9 of 10 large holders that are at 4.99%. All of them apparently waiting for uplisting to buy in further. It has been that way for a while, long before the 11/7 info.
And, of course, a world of other institutions out there likely waiting.
Does seem likely some sugar tomorrow (or after hours today) with that very good medicine. Uplist news does make a lot of sense.
This short move today may have been based partially on early knowledge of the reverse split. If so... the sugar rush could be deadly for them.
The shorts' moves all made total sense, statistically, running blind, for a small cap biotech given the xbi was due for a decline and AVXL looked way overbought with a R/S scheduled. But the devil is in the details, and the shorts don't know the details!
Maybe they prefer the top tier.
I was off on the warrants. But I wonder how much of the difference you show is warrants vs stock options.
XBI -5.4%. But if you look at the 2 year chart... it could be the bottom for the XBI.
Yeah, "Streetsweeper". Like McDognals burgers or Nikle running shoes. Names that would be used on an SNL skit.
I think it was down to 20M warrants a while ago. I think that was about a month ago. That based on conversion rate/volume and assuming the same conversion rate/volume as indicated by the last two warrant counts posted by the company.
Thanks. Wish I had the same excuse. Thirty was a long time ago, though I have only been trading avidly for about 3 years.
Somehow I have to recognize that state of excitement and go to a pre-established plan and attitude.
It's greed.
But maybe... it's also the high that comes from winning big. The feeling that you can't lose. Like when you get a birdy golfing. At the next tee you have so much adrenaline and confidence that you always go for that 300 yard shot over the lake so you can get that elusive eagle... and it always goes into the lake.
Oh... I meant that "I need some Anavex 2-73 Plus to keep me from doing stupid things". (Not "need some AVXL...")
I need some AVXL to keep me from doing stupid things.
Here was my FU logic. I was all in when the original Nov 7 presentation title leaked. I knew this would be a huge catalyst... so I had to find some way to get more AVXL. But all my money was in AVXL. What to do?
There was a lull. Nothing happened for a couple days. I know this is the usual... a delay of about 4 days... but it might be an opportunity if I could act fast enough!
Sell AVXL! It was the only way to get money to buy AVX!. I used the money to journey up the eye of a fgn death spiral tornadoe that took half my left leg last time I panicked about buying more AVXL. The plan was to retrieve at least that body part and return quickly before word spread.
I got back with the rest of my leg gone this morning and had to decide whether to jump back on the bus right away... or wait for a pullback. I decided to wait. Holy Mother of Pearl! The bus turned into an airplane and took off without me!!!!!!!!
But I didn't take my whole stack with me, so I still have lots of AVXL... However, I have reaffirmed that I am a fargin moron trader. Outside of picking winners to begin with.
I'm out. Feel a responsibility to say so. Maybe things will turn around, but it looks very risky at this point to me.
I was trying to recoop what I had lost a few weeks ago. This time bought into the idea that there would be PR's this week to elevate the SP to allow RS for staying listed, ahead of the removal of the 100M shares sold (from warrants)that ends after Friday close. Bought into this idea because it makes some sense... and there were a ton of PR's trying to elevate the SP.
But so far it does not appear to be the case. Staying in now is risking that either they are saving ammunition for later in the week, or after Friday the warrant holders will opt to not sell their pent up shares. I am chosing not to risk that one or the other of those scenarios will save me.
Final OS might be 600M when warrants gone. I went through that analysis pretty carefully. It is hard to be sure. 600M to 750M. Maybe even a little lower than 600M if the SP goes high enough on good news.
Alexander is apparently counting Ovarian and Prostate ZOPTARELIN DOXORUBICIN trials as Phase 3 since they finished Phase 2. Maybe not quite true, but not pulled out of thin air.
I called the Indometrial ZOPTARELIN DOXORUBICIN trial Ovarian in my last post. Not right. I am admittedly pretty new here.
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Two upcoming P3's would need money... unless you wait for partners or a buyout. NW has been sitting on their P3 Prostate (pun not avoidable) for many years now.
Given AEZS financing blunders, it would make a lot of sense for them to just finish out this P3 for Endometrial cancer and then look for partners for the P3's for Ovarian and Prostate. They have almost enough money to do that.
They might want to use any excitement around good interim results here for Endometrial as an opportunity to finance, but they would probably be better off waiting until the stench of their last finance move dissipates. And that will take quite a while.
So what I'm sayin is... I think we gotta chance!
If they PR an OS of 780M, but all the B Warrants are gone, I wouldn't freak.
If they get a continue on the upcoming second interim, then what should the market cap go to? I would think somewhere around $780M, or $1/share for that high estimate you gave. Ovarian, Prostate; these are major indications even if the drug would only initially be approved for subgroups.
The biggest problem to me is the unknown. Not knowing the OS or how many of those B Warrants are out there is the problem.
A go ahead at this upcoming interim review seems likely to me. I am assuming the good P2 results for Prostate forshadow, to some extent, good continued results for Ovarian. At the same time, a go ahead with Ovarian would bode well for Prostate. Not tightlty connected, but connected. So I don't see the upcoming interim review as a minor catalyst.
I also don't see a reverse split as a death sentence. It might have a droop to follow, but how large a droop compared to the likely upside? If they do finance soon thereafter... then how soon? They certainly don't need to finance right away.
You may be right. I fear these guys. But... the OS estimate that you posted does not scare me in and of itself given the SP.
If Ovarian is successful then I would think they could find a partner for prostate. So... I don't see any immediate pressure to finance.
You asked about the conference recording. It was available immediately after the conference at the same site:
http://wsw.com/webcast/ladenburg/register.aspx?conf=ladenburg&page=avxl&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/ladenburg/avxl/index.aspx
People noticed many small details that I missed. I will have to listen to it again.
I did notice that Missling made it very clear to investors that there is no plan for dilution. They will not be diluting to develope the other indications. They are well funded for Alzheimer's and that will be their focus. So the only reasonable thing to do is to buy $AVXL and drive the share price up to the moon where it will be uplisted.
I hope they wait to PR this until after the storm for small biotech ends. A ton of people will know by tomorrow anyway... but there are others out there not tied to the message boards as we are.
Timing of the conference may be perfect. October was looking a little soon anyway given the weather.