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you wouldn't understand that they are selling $25 for $1.58 and that you should be capitalizing on this, because you think that .. well i dont know what you think about jps.. i don't think you know what you're doing, but i think you are a resentful person. you spend more time focusing on what i spend my time doing in my free time than reviewing the restructuring mechanics. let me help.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56496-GSE.pdf
Existing Claims by Shareholders
Investors other than the Treasury currently hold about
1.8 billion shares of common stock in Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, as well as about $32 billion in junior
preferred shares (which CBO rounded to $35 billion
for this analysis). All of those shares were issued before
the conservatorships. Any recapitalization plan would
probably need to address existing shareholders’ claims to
the future earnings of the GSEs, which would affect the
price that investors would be willing to pay as part of the
GSEs’ sale of new common stock.
review table 2 and 3 scenario 2 where spspa takes a haircut. warrants are worth * which is between $0 and $100,000,000.
yes, there has been a liquidation sale for a long time.
if you only knew what you were doing, you'd highlight this in gold and not red because you'd be buying
but you're verifyably clueless.. i hope that your investment performance here when it is restructured does not materially negatively impact your life... hoping you get at least two quarters per share out of this.
the main thing here is the guy is confusing volume and value
cheers to you then i suppose.
it is a sad and disappointing outcome but yeah that's how this restructuring appears to be shaping up.
Thats like $750 a week. Good clip. Agree. That is like $15000 a week in par value. Very nice
Real valuable insight. Thx. Muted
Yep. This is why jps are money good. Cannot get around it. Beautiful
Why are you even entertaining posts like this. The nonsense will continue. Just post the results. No need to attempt to reason with the unreasonable. Not everyone understands the incentives of restructuring. Jps get par if commons are worth anything at all. The only way to zero out commons is receivership. This is not a receivership scenario. But it is diluting scenario. Just a matter of how much dilution. I believe my base case is so much dilution that the common shareholders of this board are disappointed.
Once whomever is selling fnmas and fmckj runs out of shares they will at least double. They should be at least 3-4 right now. Commons, however, to your point have not been relentlessly sold for 6 months by a large seller just dumping. And in my view have no upside in a spspa conversion restructuring
okay well, that's great and all but this is a restructuring, i dont ever expect dividends on these jps --- they will be converted to common to settle the litigation
Valiant effort. A lot has changed since then. The companies have retained earnings for years now. Yeah people dont need a good reason these days to attack someone trying to do the right thing.
Investors Unite picked up your mantle for a while and fought hard to raise awareness and turned the tide and saved the companies from being shuttered and instead they are being recapped.
Enjoy the ride. I recommend a seat in the jps. Should be insanely good from here and now.
Yep. Not anymore. Age takes its toll.
I posted a comment about the shortcomings and outlined some basic restructuring concepts for the young man. Cheers
Glad to see someone taking the time to put together a thoughtful attempt at explaining why the common shares may be undervalued and share that view on seekingalpha. I posted my feedback on the shortcomings in a comment. I think we are getting close to admin action and am hoping Bernstein gets voted out of committee soon
Yeah. I think the fireworks are more Juneish/July
Preferred are hitting multi year lows. Liquids i think dipped below scotus lows today. Not sure. We are talking like 10 year lows. The seller has been smashing any bid since october. New biden team for second term gets seated this next month i think. And then we get to see if they take up the mantle
Bernstein should get voted through to senate next week or so. Then you have two weeks for him to get voted in. Then you have left yourself no time for him to act. These things are process dependent. I am not sure the filing of the capital plans is as significant as Bernstein getting fully confirmed. Plus, now we have a turncoat David H Stevens running away from “legislation must come before admin reform” and leaning into recap and release to solve the political problem. The tide is turning. Give it a few months to play through. Hindes said November and his window of opportunity of 12-18 months from late April 2022 just opened.
It is only over if the companies are restructured recapitalized and released from conservatorship with consent decree. If the Biden admin hands off these companies to a republican administration — 30 republican senators are now on record saying they will try to pass legislation to unwind these llpa reforms. So they would be unwound under a republican admin. The only way this is resolved is if biden moves forward to lock it in. Cheers. David h stevens addresses this
Stevens is just frontrunning the news that he already knows about
It's over!!! recap coming:
From David Stevens:
The GSE’s are far too critical to housing and for the first time I am beginning to lean into the idea that perhaps recap and release without congressional reform may be a superior outcome to what seems to me to be a more politicized environment of over-site of these two very important companies.
In the end, I realize this issue is over, and I do not want to feed the political response any further. I just ask my housing brethren to help by insuring that we maintain the integrity of these two very important institutions.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/final-comments-llpa-changes-david-h-stevens-cmb/?trackingId=GN8rXU6UTNuwpjbBmWmVYg%3D%3D
Patrick mchenry made it obvious that he will unwind sandra thompson’s efforts to push fannie and freddie to fulfill their racial equity goals and objectives. If the companies do not exit conservatorship, fhfa is a political appointee directed agency. The next republican fhfa director could dismantle these (like mark calabria, and just make the gses book of business pristine and 10x overcapitalized for such a pristine book or business).
The only way sandra thompson can prevent this from happening is to work with treasury, to finalize regulatory and oversight rules, and then to consent decree restructure recap and release. This would prevent future directors from being able to undo sandra thompson’s hard work.
The political brinksmanship stage is set! Republicans want to release. Just look to the senate confirmation hearing of sandra thompson. Senators were serious about her role in exiting conservatorship without congress and that it was her objective to do so.
So they are getting out, with or without sandra’s work locked into their future.
I am a fan of her work her and think she is working with someone at treasury to formalize the permanency of it. Her latest video from forbes was illuminating. She is concerned about making her changes permanent. She is advocating to hold on and that they are working on solutions to help. This is the warrant $.
So you post it on twitter and then here and then facebook. You are right about jim being a baddie but this time he has it right
They also were not part of a finalized capital rule, etc.
I guess that is one way to do it. I don't know what to expect from a capital plan with Treasury still on the GSE's necks.
I think this revolves less around the capital plans and more around the confirmation of Bernstein and subsequent actions of the NEC/CEA.
I see the capital plans more of a post conservatorship regulatory burden.
Do we actually see the capital plan? I know it gets sent to fhfa, but why would we expect to see it? Or for it to be made public. Is there a public reporting requirement im overlooking?
April showers bring may flowers
Did you stop there or are you still adding 10k shares per month
Cant really null and void common shares except through receivership. They can, however, dilute commons down to a penny I think.
That is what i believe more or less
Certainly would not surprise me although I would be sad for all the people who did not take my advice on this one. Curious if you are just bsing or making this up at all. I actually wrote up a long analysis about how to get to a $0.01 penny valuation (look no further than the cbo report and figure spspa takes a haircut— that is the exact scenario we are in.
Its not that we are wishing bad for common shareholders. It is that we anticipate/expect that the most likely outcome is one of dilution the likes of which it is sad to imagine. Anyway. Once i did the math on how a restructuring might work like that i moved from common to jps years ago. Time to get savvy.
So there is a difference between wishing and expecting and trying to give you a heads up /warning. Fyi.
I think there is some potential from the courts but tend to agree with you on the div talk.
I think bernstein gets confirmed in the next month. Ive heard we get leadership here in 5 weeks. Cant speak to the quality of the rumormill here. Just chilling
If true, so too are the shares you own which are even more junior. A wise man does not advocate for the bulldozing of the first floor of an apartment building where all his glass valuables are in the second floor.
Far from it. Off by a factor of nearly 1000x.
Good luck
This is untrue
In this case i am. Ackman does, however, have more money behind him. But his allocation to this does not inspire much confidence. He can afford to take a loss on commons and make up for it in pfds
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171569480
your previous advice on the topic regarding common shares and potential dividends.
At least you have a path forward that compiles using logic and reasoning. Good on you for making it that far and having a working thesis. Good luck with this. I like to think that I am conservative by not having to worrry about that angle since the jps cant be diluted and their rights and place in the capital structure persists as long as they stay out of receivership, which they should as they have more money than ever in history and their earnings are 2x what they were since the government jacked up gfees.
the spspa liquidation preference grows, but outside of receivership it can't do anything to the jps to dilute its equity stake. that's the point.
good luck.. sounds like you are going to be too late to understand this one in time.
you are trying to hard man, the point is calabria did all the leg work and had executable capital plans ready to go when he left. look at what sandra thompson has done since she has taken the reigns.... she has been institutionalizing post conservatorship regulatory rules not limited to but including the capital planning rule that now fhfa is overseeing the implementation of capital plans for the enterprises to be able to meet their regulatory capital requirements.