Looks like the CSCO "one likely scenario" was the one that played out with an additonal "flat or down slightly" in terms of guidance. Guess I'll get my answer in the coming days and weeks.

Isn't it funny? While this guy's calling it a hat trick, everwhere I go I seem to have to muddle through those clowns Kudlow (this guy takes the cake with his "smugness") and Cramer talking about their "Trifecta."

Book to Bill under 1 for this quarter was part of guidance from last quarter but I too believe this is no where near great earnings from CSCO. They just made ($4.8 vs $4.81 consensus) top line and if they kept guidance flat this is a weak report. It's getting harder and harder for them to meet the top line and more and more tricks are necessary in this environment. They may be back down to $9 sooner than we think.

At some point I would love to buy them because they are one of the best run companies in the world but even the best can do so much when the sales are drying up.

Zeev, can you comment on my CSCO earnings post from earlier this eve. when you get a chance?

Thanks.

Thanks MLSOFT.

ajtj99, what is your take on the action today as we closed slightly over yesterday's close?

TIA

US Dollar Chart- seems frozen? Anyone use INO.COM for this and getting similar problems? If not, anyone have another good USD vs YEN quoting website?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=s

TIA

It is ONE likely scenario Shack and I hope I'm wrong and they miss or take down guidance but I tend to think they can make EPS and may not want to take down guidance in this somewhat "euphoric" environment and maybe wait until next quarter willing "sales may be better than they look right now."

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and would love to see or hear more input on what any of you think about CSCO earnings because they will have FAR MORE IMPACT ON THE MARKET THAN the elections or anything to do with the FED.

Zeev, re: CSCO earnings. One likely scenario is they will make or slightly beat EPS, meet top line revenue, and confirm (not raise or lower) guidance.

IF THIS HAPPENS, what impact do you think it will have on the market?

Thanks,

Punkle

Just relax a bit and respect all longs and shorts on this board. While Zeev never shorts, he is very respectful and downright helpful to those of us who choose to short on occasion. Best.

I feel the more this market rises without a pullback, the harder it will fall just like last year and it's worth the risk for the pain up when there should be significant rewards all the way down, especially with these fundamentals.

If history is a guide, this thing could run a while yet.

10 of the past 11 years, we've had a substantial rally, starting somewhere between early Sept and mid Oct.

In 1999, 1998 and 1992 the rally ran until the end of the year, or beyond. In 1997, it ran about 6 weeks, then collapsed. In 1996, it ran about 3 months; in 1995 and 1993, about 1 month; in 1994, it ran a bit less than a month.

So far this time, we've run for 3 weeks, which makes this the shortest October rally of the most recent 10.

regards,

phill


Thanks Phill. We've also NEVER had an UP November in the history of the stock market after an October that went up as much as October 2002. There may be more up coming but I believe if there is not a significant pullback along the way, the higher it goes the higher it will fall just like last year when we fell to new lows after the run.

Had a nice long conversation yesterday with a guy who has been in commercial real estate in Silicon Valley for the last 10 years or so and he sees things getting much worse. Price per square foot has gone through the floor and there are no tenants to take the 25% vacancy that has been dumped on the market. Office space that used to go for $3 per sf / month in some cases is going for 10 cents. Next week, HP is supposed to dump another 1 million SF of office space on the market as well. The best I get from different sources in different tech industries is things are at best stabilizing and many think it's getting worse. Cisco was also mentioned as a company with tons of extra space that they can't lease.

Nothing to bet the farm on but another piece of data.

I'm close to capitulating. Zeev, being on the wrong side of the KLAC run from 28 to 38 has been less than pleasant.

Seems like you still believe in a pullback sometime soon. If I were to capitulate do you have advice as to when and where - i.e. what indicators would be most telling that would lead you to believe we will head up let's say another 50+ points from here - that's about the most I think I can stomach.

And then on the way down, is 1222 still in the cards or is there a halfway point where you would unload a portion of your position?
All thoughts are welcome here including all you bulls that have done well these past couple of weeks. I must admit, it is much more fun being a bull. Congratulations!

Thanks.

MSFT down 84 cents after hours.

I guess the Teddy Bear says it all but we tested the 294 support on the SOX yesterday and got the "fakeout" or bounce. Looks like it may happen again today. Do you think SOX breaks 294 by EOD tomorrow?

Zeev, do you think we break support levels here in last half hour or hold? How does today's action bode for tomorrow IYTO?

SOX approaching 294, NAS 1320. Don't think we're getting the "fakeout" today. Will be interesting.

Short more KLAC 36.22

Check out what was posted on briefing:

9:53AM Hearing rumor that Chicago PMI was leaked at 54% : We have no idea if this is a credible leak -- we cannot recall a leak of this number in the past, and leaks of economic numbers in general are very rare.

I'm started to believe there is some manipulation here.

Chicago PMI at 45.9 vs 49 expectation. OK everyone, it's OK to sell now

Maybe the SOX will lead us down to a G&C for a change today.

I don't think we can shrug off weaker than expected economic data forever. That combined with a needed correction to fill many gaps may bode well for some weakness today or tomorrow.

No way JMKel. Many people thought the last rate cut was the "last" and look what happened to the market.

Another rate cut will be viewed negatively by the market. Why do we need a rate cut if all these Q3 earnings are better than expected? Seriously, I don't see the reason?

Another rate cut indicates that things are worse than we thought and we go down after maybe a 15 minute pop.

Nikkei down 150, dollar down, futures down.

Seems the analysts for Japan have no clue what is going to happen. As of yesterday, a softer bank reform plan was supposed to buoy the Nikkei. And today, the softer reform plan is why they are down 150????

Sounds similar to what the analysis will be if we have a rate cut.

Good point JDA. One of our main issues will be "the technology we use today is more than enough to meet our needs - in fact it is overkill in many cases."

I have a 1.7 Gig Pentium 4 with 18" Flat Panel Monitor that I bought a year ago (came with Windows XP) for around $2K. I don't see replacing this for many years - maybe a software upgrade down the road.

This weekend we printed up invitations for our daughter's birthday party and I pulled out my old HP Laserjet IIIP which is over 10 years old and it worked as well as it did the day I bought it, and XP had no problem finding the print driver, etc.

Technology is great and will be back with a vengeance again in a few years - it's just going to take time for our needs to catch up with where technology is today which is why I see a tough road ahead for high P/E tech companies that are valued at growing 30-40% per year. Many of these are shrinking from last years revenues and most analysts think this is a "blip." I think the demand doesn't catch up with the supply for quite a while and I've been in high tech (software) for the last 20 years.

Take your profits Tony and live to trade another day. I think this slight move over the 100-day is a "fakeout" just like we got at the end of day today (shorts were faked out into believing the break of NAS 1320 and SOX 294 will send us crashing down) to sucker in the non-believers to think we really do have a rally on so they can distribute all their shares (with gains of course) to J6P and then the rally will die.

Until stocks like KLAC correct from it's 20% gain after a horrible earnings report and guidance we are in a bubble that is going to burst hard. When KLAC is back under $30, I'll think of going long again.

"How can EDS report a 60% drop in profit and still beat analyst. The whole market is set up as smoke and mirrors."

I'm short the market right now but I can't say this is a surprise. Remember when EDS was at $40 when they preannounced? Any good CEO is going to set the bar so they can trip over it after the bad news (preannouncement) is out. They know it's going to be bad so just make it a little worse than it really is so you can build some positive momentum when the actual numbers are announced. This should have been expected but will also have little affect on the overall market. This is not a "big, positive, earnings surprise." It's enough to take an individual stock down from $40 to $13.75 back up to $15. If it were market moving like the MSFT, IBM, or INTC news you would see the futures reacting very positively and they're not.

"NY Times? How about me linking you to an article from National Review?"
-------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry, that's the paper I (and many other Republicans and Democrats) read daily. I assume you are making reference to a democratic slant to the paper but feel free to link a National Review article. I will be happy to read it - they're a decent outfit.

Don't think Mondale is losing MN optionkid. Here's an article from the NY Times. Perhaps Jesse Venture should "body slam" the folks who went ahead and sent these fliers:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/29/opinion/29KRUG.html?ex=1036995641&ei=1&en=990b5ece2fa7c6d2

No Politics et. al. - this affects the market.

I'll take 1250 Mole1 although not sure why shorting is always considered "greedy." It wasn't too long ago NAS 1000 was in the cards (and it still may be) so I don't think a retracement of this "fundamental-less" rally to 1222 is a stretch.

You should be delighted Zeev - your trading is "extraordinaire" as of late. I'm just looking forward to taking advantage of your 1222 down target in the near future - if it comes.

Looks like another fakeout for now.

Yes, unless we break by about 5 points or so, I'm not convinced.

1320 breached - now let's see SOX 294 break...

In edit: looks like a tough battle here.

Mondale, expected to be ratified as the Democratic candidate Wednesday evening and to file the formal paperwork either Wednesday or Thursday, led Coleman 47 percent to 39 percent in a statewide poll released Wednesday by the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2002/10/30/politics1056EST0547.DTL

CNN has some good stuff as well.

New low on SOX - nice call on SOX getting whacked harder than the NAS yesterday Zeev. Thanks.

Zeev, if the down leg to around 1222 is still on (which I assume it is)do you see the SOX outperforming the NAS like it is today or rolling over and getting a bigger whack?

Thanks.

Punkle, How can it be "around the magical 2:22" and "before noon"? Inquiring minds want to know... Are you in some kind of West Caost Time Warp...<g>


et


Yes, you are correct. I am on the West Coast but I meant 2:22 and 3:00. My bad.

But at least we're there now...

Looks like we turned down around the magical 2:22. Now let's get that real correction. How about some red SOX before noon? Is that asking too much?