is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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probably the reason for the restriction on what plastics to use has more to do with the storage/ Solid Waste Management implications, not the results from processing it.
" John had other offers at a similar price"
how do you know that?
good post. You hit it right on the head.
"The point was only that there were companies that were willing to buy JBI's output."
I always knew that. I understand that JB may not have been able to name that refinery before it closed. Unfortunately, that is not good endough for me in terms of making an investment in JBI. It remains an unsubstantiated claim then.
Just because some chemical analysis has been done to validate JBI's fuel means nothing to me as well. Because of the intricacies of the crude oil market, which I profess not to understand, there could be lots of reasons why they could not sell to refineries as has been claimed.
Can you provide a link to something that would substantiate the above (that refineries are willing to buy JBI's output)?
The above claim has set a floor for investor's expectation upon fuel sales.
The addition of the blending site has complicated things as far as I am concerned. Saying that an even greater margin can be obtained is building on the floor established by the refinery claim. Does anybody know what kind of margin the blending site achieved when it was in operation and even where it fit in the value chain?
The original plan was to sell to refineries. The blending plant only came into the picture in the Spring of 2010. I questioned the opriginal plan, and the blending site just complicates things for me.
trades settle in 3 days, so trades executed today would settle in the New Year and hence not qualify for tax-loss selling. Last day for tax-loss selling was Dec 24.
I would not have called it panic-selling. More like tax-loss selling, and maybe some disappointment wih the CC (I have still not listened to it). Today was just another step in a downward slide, but year-end is here, so tax-loss selling should abate.
I think it will go right back to where it was before, and not move much from there until something happens, which could be quite dramatic, like some financial matters to address their cash needs.
I take it from the CC that real production/ sales is some months away yet. Some minor sales in the meantime on the Consent Order.
agreed. maybe it just needs "Clearcoat".
I will say this, it is a nice paint job on the stock today. The same guys who did the blending plant must have been brought in to erase a .09 1-day drop.
so what theories abound as to the reason for the uplift of the last few days? Are we expecting earnings soon or something? This company seems to jump on that.
GWMAN. obviously you are Orange-badge-trained. thanks for filling in the gaps. Actually, it was off the top of my head, and I admitted as much.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=58067237
if it is any consolation, it is outstanding that the regulator is allowing JBI to operate without this documentation. And you are right, they are a little itty bitty factory. They would not cause much damage of they were to blow up, but really think about the potential dust, fumes, and leaching into groundwater that could occur...
I have been posting here since January and this is exactly the kind of situation I thought might come up, although I could not see the scenario exactly. The product can be the greatest in the world.. there is something called "economic viability" that comes into play, and regulation/ permitting is just about the most difficult challenge there is.
btw I did not listen to the CC, but I appreciate your compliment. I will listen to it when it becomes available at first opportunity. In the meantime, kindly post what you think I was "right" about.
Thanks.
I just looked up Tritium. I was completely wrong about what it was... been a long time... lol..
point is.. the bigger picture is more important, something JBI has to keep in mind.
I think you are missing my point(s). I had no idea what benzene was... did not even care. My point was that there is always some threat to be dealt with. It varies by industry. These threats are all handled more or less the same way. The jargon is the same everywhere... it makes sense when you think of it from the regulator's/ watchdog's point of view. A threat is a threat.
And thanks for the bit on benzene... it obviously is BAD.
correct... more or less. There are lots of ways that regulation reduces profitability. The most obvious way is in the area of safety. Working safely costs tons of money, and makes North America less "productive" than many third-world counterparts.
In the nuclear industry, a man working on the reactor face may only perform 1 or 2 max hours of work in a given day. The rest of the time is spent changing to/ from PPE, walking to work, taking breaks, talking about safety, etc...
I was reading yesterday about some guy that died on a scaffolding. Bottom line was the employer was scrimping on safety gear to reduce cost.
What about basic construction safety like lifelines, fall arrest, etc...? it all costs money.
It does not seem important until you see the plaque I saw at Bruce Power. It lists all of the workers that died building the Canadian nuclear fleet and how. Electrocuted, crushed, etc, etc... it does have an impact.
Likewise the environment.
If JBI fails because it did not foresee the requirements to manage it's feedstock of plastic waste, that is JBI's fault. Bottom line. The mission of the DEC is to look ahead 5 years and ensure that there are no "plumes" in the ground that maybe get into the water table... or contamination from plastic waste.
That is what separates us from the Third World. Question: looking the world over, where are the more serious pollution problems? like maybe China? The fastest-growing economy, but basically third-world. It is not over-regulation, it just depends how you look at it.
I don't know if JBI will fail because of this, but it appears that they did not show good foresight in this area.
you are right, the nuclear business is more complicated and they take safety more seriously. I saw a big difference between nuclear and Oil & Gas.
However, the comparison is not asinine. The documents and process are the same for good reason. In fact, I remember reading the word "characterization" in the news somewhere about the Consent Order. The exact same word is used in nuclear and it means the exact same thing. Do you know what it means??
Anyway, let's compare nuclear and waste plastic. In the nuclear industry there is this stuff called Tritium. It is a natural by-product of the nuclear fission process and is like water. I think what it is is heavy water with an extra nuclide, and it is unstable (emits nuclides). It is a beta emitter. There are 3 kinds of radiation (gamma, beta, neutron). Heavy water is (I think...) D2O. Deuterium (2) and Oxygen (1). If I remember it right Tritium is D3O.
Anyway, the point is, it can get into a human via ingestion, absorption, or penetration. In layman's terms, if it gets spilled on you, that is BAD. Since it is basically water, and has a half-life of 50000 years, if you get it in you, you have to drink water and go peepee until it no longer is in your system. It can take days..
Now, what about simple acid? If it gets on you it is BAD. Same thing.
In the oil and gas industry, the bad stuff is benzene. Don't know why, just is.
So tell me, how is the government to handle this?
Does it not make sense to have the same documentation structure and process? With the same names? The hazards and preventive measures are different, but that is just content. Each one deserves an EA.
What if the waste plastic has (or could have) acid on it?
Just an example.
I doubt that you could find a flow chart that tells you that the EA is done prior to applying for permits, or that the objective of a BUD is to control environmental damage and that it is not a mechanism of avoidance. There are those that know and those that do not know. There is so much red tape and documentation with the government it is difficult to get a single big picture that shows this process. JBI would have had to consult in an open-minded fashion with the DEC to understand this going in.
Believe me or not.
they have not had that many continuous runs. It has never been documented. Only enough for testing... which is not much.
cause i know what I am talking about, that is why.
and is it a much better analogy than you think it is.
no it is not speculation. THe same set of documents exists for every type of process that may effect the environment. EAs are not restricted to nuclear, so it is not speculation.
The NY DEC is not the ones that need to be on top of it, JBI does. Unless someone asks, the DEC will not tell. JBI assumed way too much.
And orry this kind of documentation is critical to success. You can believe in P2O all you want, but many environmentally-friendly ideas have dies because they did not follow process, or are impractical. That's life as they say...
I think that this was about my original post that they could not simply pile up 20T/ day of feedstock without having some way of preventing environmental damage. I thought a building or structure was required.
I have no idea what your post is talking about.
some things are obvious to someone who has worked in the environmental industry or in an industry that impacts the environment. The EA for the Darlington New Build CANDU nuclear reactor has been complete for about 5 years or so and that has been in discussion for about 10 years. It is always one of the first documents to be written for something like this.
anyway... there is a flow to these documents and it is pointless to try to get around the system. The governments of the US and Canada are not the ones to volunteer information. You have to ask for it.
Anyway, nobody has to believe me. There may be some procedural documents available that explains the process.
Full commercial production?? whoop de doo. This is a project, and it should take about 5 months from start to finish.
Face it, they are simply starting up 1 processor, a commercial prototype, likely not 24/7 and with restrictions imposed by the Consent Order. We have no idea whether or not they will make money with this setup.
I knew something did not seem right... doh!!!!
an all along I thought that p2O meant that they had a novel cooking oil that allowed one to cook with Tupperware on the stovetop. Sheesh... you learn something new every day.
again... MY BAD.
hey... you said it was in bales.. that is a different matter. Containers are used all the time to store nasty stuff. Happens in the nuclear business all the time...
i did not get that from your first post. My bad if I missed it.
I don't think that that approach will work with JBI. Just IMO. Storage containers are intended for just that. storage. Not for managing inventory or loading. Long term storage. Weather does not matter.
what you should do is build a structure around it to control dust and odors. If you want to go inside the structure, you need to install an HVAC system and wear proper PPE.
If you do not want to ever see it again, you can just drop alot of concrete on it. That is what they do with nuclear waste, like Chernobyl.
If you are a really smart guy you can slide a concrete bed underneath it to prevent leaching and the formation of "plumes". I don't know how you do that, but that would make you smarter.
If you don't like looking at it you can just blow it the eff up, but that would be very messy and your neighbors might not like it.
"Others have stated that NY is one of the hardest places to do business for things like this"
which means that locating there was one big mistake.
I am not sure of the original content of the post that you are responding to.
It is important that the P2O processor be able to sustain 24/7 operation fairly reliably and I don't think that it has been shown it can do that. That should be a concern for investors IMO.
It makes no difference to emissions how long the processor runs for, I don't think.. it would be assumed 24/7 operation.
If your point was that they don't need to have much inventory and hence will not need a sw permit... I think that is wishful thinking..
and AGAIN... the leafs suck badly and night after night.
well, my impression of the Consent Order is that the DEC is bending over backwards to allow JBII to operate without having done the proper documentation, which would begin with an EA. They are allowing them to do the EA and apply for SW permit in stages with set milestones. So, it is pretty obvious that they did not do an EA.
And from my cursory perusal of the CRA web site, yes i agree that an EA is exactly the kind of thing that they would be very good at.
Islechem, on the other hand, would be where design drawings would be kept. I liken this to a nuclear plant in Canada where AECL (Atomic Energy of Canada), being the Design Authority on a CANDU reactor, would maintain a set of drawings for the core pieces of technology. OPG (Ontario Power Generation) deals directly with AECL on design issues.
None of that requires a JBII MACHINE SHOP.
Anyway..
If JBII was advised that they did not need to do an EA, they got bad advice. It is no unusual to mess these things up, just gets very expensive.
Yes, I do bring up LT planning alot. I think that in hindsight the p2O processor should have been placed on the blending site, as it would have made the permitting process easier. I don't think that JBII thought this out to well and assumed that permitting would be much easier than it has turned out to be... permitting for the first P2O processor is more like ST or Medium term planning.
the Leafs suck.
is it not true that they SHOULD have done an Environmental Assessment, which would have laid out the need for a Solid Waste permit and an Air Permit? Is it not true that they tried to get away with a Simple Air Permit instead and that that approach DID NOT WORK?
These documents have an order and a purpose. I know that because I am a planner and I do plans that plan out very similar projects, including these necessary documents.
My experience on such projects and my reading of the requirements to manage Solid Waste tell me that they would need to build a dedicated building or structure to house the feedstock inventory in order to get that permit they are applying for. Can you prove I am wrong?
Seems to me they have leased this recycling center as a stop gap measure, although i am sure the details will come out on Wednesday..
I think it should be me that says Sheesh. Except we prefer "No Way..." here in Canada.
it is on the jbiglobal website. 1783 allanport comes to mind.
You don't seem to grasp the reality of dealing with Solid Waste. As has been posted here many times, plastic waste will be full of contaminants. Looks to me like they would have to have a dedicated storage building on a concrete pad with an HVAC system in order to control leaching into the ground, dust, odor, and fumes.
You might not like that reality, but at least it is being realistic.
THere is no single correct theory for what the purpose of the Waste Disposal site is. One must assume that it is a course of feedstock, and it would have the advantage of being pre-sorted. But, the lease is yet another unforeseen cost.
You have a good handle on it already. I really thjink it is a Solid Waste management problem more than a cost/ supply problem. THis company is in the middle of getting proper permitting and they have learned that they require a Solid Waste permit, because as you have noted, they need alot of plastic which must be proper ly stored and associated hazards controlled.
I think that the cost of managing Solid Waste is more than the cost of the plastic itself.
huge debate... haha.. read over the last several thousand posts for the answer.; You will find out no one really knows....
didn't JBI say that they now had a process in theP2O plant to separate out the diesel and gasoline?
If that is the case, that is great, it remains if it can be sold and at what price....
Keep in mind... the $10/barrel cost is just an attention-grabber. The most expensive crude in the world comes from the Oil Sands at about $20-$30/barrel, thus JB's oil is not that cheap. There are other costs in the Supply Chain, and then there are the non-Product Related Costs (which everybody seems content to ignore.
It is common in estimating to simplify reality, thereby grossly understating the true costs.
well it is not "right beside it" so there....
done... no more pig. Really though... only a buck and change on 1,5M volume.... PPPPUUUULLLLEEEEAAAASSSSEEEEEEEE,
I am a Swine... but I don't Whine.
I like Pork, but I am not a Dork...
you will note the flying pig removed from my signature. Actually, it was gettin' old anyway. I am always looking for new ideas...
Like this post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=51733634&txt2find=volume|plastic
Good post.
OK, so this plastic must be compressed somehow. That is the one figure I question, the weight/ cu. inch. Is there a cost to buying it in that form? I assume they will be getting it from the recycling center. There would still be a cost buried in there..
I agree it does not seem like much plastic, but there must be a cost in getting it in that form.
My post was wrt Schedule B... I do remember reading that stuff in the main document, you did not mention the Environmental Assessment, killer document.