watching biotechs, gold & silver
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Finn- thanks very much for the stock info-
Impressive numbers!
If you identify other hopefuls and are feeling generous, please pass them along if you feel like it.
Thanks again
Don't you be pickin' on my lady that way.
It surprises me that anyone could construe my inquiry as antagonistic-
I'm looking for all the help I can get, and if anyone has first hand experience with low priced stocks ($2) that can jump multiples, I want to check them out in an effort to see if I can see any patterns, opportunities, etc.
Vegas? I don't think so, but I've always wanted to play in the World Series of Poker.
If COR does what many expect, and the admission is still around 10K, maybe I'll be driving there in my new BMW, courtesy of COR.
cheers
ps. I didn't even realize you were dating- you move very fast for an old guy ;)
than COR
.....I've been in comparitively POS stocks that have gone from $2 to $15 in a year and a half.
Just curious what they are.....would you mind naming them? Those are big jumps, especially for low grade stocks.
TIA
What will the upfronts be in a BP deal?
I'm assuming the 1600mg/day (800mg/bid) dose will be approved in the IND for CX717.
Since Stoll wanted $30M last year, I'm thinking he'll want at least $40M this year, since the recent biotech/BP deals that have been done in recent months are trending higher than before.
I think a deal of that magnitude is what gets COR to the $6-$8 range, while just filing the IND (after the higher dosing approval) brings us to $5 or so.
I'm not sure this LA Times series is a big positive for COR
While I can understand why this series would excite COR enthusiasts, this glimpse into "Lynch Lab" raises numerous concerns/questions, especially about Gary's health.
What's up with Gary Lynch's neurological problems? Unlike a BP with it's layers of scientists, to me Gary Lynch is COR; ie., without Gary, where and what would COR be? I'm thinking either much smaller or perhaps even non-existent.
Could this issue be related to Stoll's fascination/obsession with in-licensing something? When he first proposed the idea it seemed especially reckless, as if Stoll was promoting the idea that "We've got to buy something, anything, and really quickly to remain viable with the Street".
And maybe it's not a health issue- excerpted from part 4- "While declaring almost daily that he was about to quit the whole enterprise, Lynch couldn't help himself."
Knowing that Gary was hinting at leaving on a daily basis must have been really stressful for Stoll.
Stoll always seemed level headed to me before he started promoting this in-licensing adventure/scheme.........but it would make perfect sense to me if he felt compelled to go that route out of a concern that something might happen to Gary.
Horror of horrors, suppose Gary's problems are the result of taking ampakines for years?
Call me paranoid or worse, but while I'm grateful for the excellent insights this narrative gives all of us, after reading them I don't come away with the bullishness that a lot of you seem to be experiencing.
Excellent writing though- definitely a valuable and compelling read that makes cutting edge science seem really exciting- wish I had paid more attention in biology and had more of an imagination.
The very human politics, rivalries, and in-fighting are fascinating as well- what a remarkable character Gary obviously is- wish he spoke more on the CC's.
Psychiatric approves the IND for the ADHD Phase 2b. Dosing limits and duration approved are - at least 1200 mg/day and dosing duration of at least 6 weeks - plenty to justify strong BP partnering interest. (Stock spikes into the 5s, settles into the 4s).
I know you qualified it, but I think if it's 1200 mg/day it would be perceived as a negative and the SP would fall.
It was the good results with the 800 mg/bid that created the excitement and the push over $5, so an approved maximum dose below that would suggest to me that the FDA doesn't really believe the artifact hypothesis.
But it's probably immaterial anyway, since it makes no sense for the FDA to approve a 1200 mg limit if COR is asking for the 800 bid dose.
I think either the FDA believes it's an artifact or they don't-..........but I like the rest of your scenario.
Current Bid=2.48 Ask=2.74
Nothing like nice tight spreads ;)
Volume a puny 12,200
Have a great weekend, all
Here's an interesting premise - biotech as a safe haven?
It seems historically the drugs have always been regarded as a defensive (safe) haven when the economy tanked- the premise is that everyone still needs drugs (or even more drugs?).
The only difficulty at present seems to be an FDA intent on not approving any more new drugs, in order to avoid another Vioxx.
Check this story- rings true to me:
"FDA blamed for dip in new drugs
New drug approvals down 31 percent so far this year: report; FDA still stinging from Vioxx approval."
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/15/news/companies/fda/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
Who was the only correct answer in this COR FDA survey?
Question:
Assume a good FDA decision of at least 1200 mg/day, where will COR close on the next full day of trading?
74 out of 75 of us were wrong, which is sort of interesting
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board_survey_results.asp?board_id=3252&Survey_Num=1
showing 50K traded at $2.15- what the heck is that about???
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?mode=&page=afterhours&symbol...
I think that the coming CC will be announcing a partnership.
How can a BP offer COR a favorable deal with the current uncertainty surrounding the ADHD IND?
Stoll seems confident- why would he leave $$$ on the table?
I think the BP deal comes post a green lighted IND.
Plus, we're in the dog days of summer- just the logistics of putting together a BP deal with all the personnel vacancies seems like a high hurdle.
>>The cause for concern came from a test that involved doses of 100 times the normal human therapeutic dose, Pozen said, adding that three similar tests did not find genotoxicity.<<
Wouldn't almost everything be toxic if it involved doses 100 times a normal human dose?
It seems somehow inequitable- is there a better way to vet drug compounds?
Wondering how anything can pass muster if this is the benchmark.
Would aspirin be able to make it through today's FDA?
TIA
....seeing CX-717 back on track and partnered is extremely important.
Hope they wait until November/December for a BP deal- the biowreck sector is getting pretty thoroughly trashed and August rarely seems robust for them.
Maybe the timing makes zero difference, as the deals that are actually getting done are richer and richer, a good sign for COR.
Thanks
Ampakines are arguably the most exciting new neuro platform out there.
Can I infer from your reference to Neuro's enthusiasm for the ampa platform that you agree that COR is valuable even if 717 bombs?
TIA
The UC clout makes good sense.
Excellent Lilly article from Dew posted elsewhere:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21683453
are you referring to that specific conflict?
Maybe I mispoke- all I know is that Lilly has a history of trying to break COR's formidable defenses on their patent estate.
It's been asked many times why Lilly is fighting COR, instead of cooperating with them.
The "Not-invented-here" syndrome always comes up in that discussion, as Lilly's actions seem illogical.
But I was really just trying to say that COR is a valuable entity, no matter what happens to CX717.
What it really boils down to is - if CX-717/ADHD has a future, then Cortex as a company has a future. So the filing and approval of the IND is critical, and should have a significant impact on the stock price.
You must only be considering the near term- even if 717 flops COR still has a very bright future- their IP is worth big $$$ to someone.
If it wasn't, Lilly wouldn't be suing them.
OT Erbse
Nice pic! 2006 Z4 M Coupe? 150+ mph? That could be fun.
Thanks for the invitation- I would love to see/explore Aachen.
Excellent idea re inviting tradermmm. We would definitely need an interpreter. Google English to German obviously isn't perfected.
Hoping it happens. All I need is for COR to perform like many on this board believe it will.
Danke
Ich träume über die Ernte herauf neues BMW in München mit meinen COR-Profiten 2008 und fahre auf den Autobahn und durch Europa für zwei oder drei Wochen, es dann versendete haben zurück zu den USA. Beifall
gfp- thanks for the feedback- 1 more
You said: "My concern there was the lack of an intermediate dose cohort, since 800 mg BID is the BID Max Tolerated Dose, and one might have expected side effects/a high dropout rate."
I remember your prior concern re the intermediate dose being absent- I'm guesssing that won't be a problem in the next trial as it will be run by a BP?
Re your "800 mg BID is the BID Max Tolerated Dose" comment, I thought that the MTD was never officially established for CX717?
???
Thanks again
Thanks-
You said "Cortex hadn't done the preclinical work that would have been required to use an Ampakine with that combination"
What's involved here for work? Is it expensive and/or lengthy?
Should that "work" be done?
Isn't it difficult to find test subjects that fit the present criteria?
Also wondering if COR needs trial design consultants? (remembering DARPA trial allowing naps!!!???)
Thanks again
Question for the board re COR AD-Pet scan study
From the recent PR:
The clinical study is being performed in mild-moderate Alzheimer's patients who are drug naive or stabilized on cholinesterase inhibitors at the University of Michigan Medical Center. In animal studies cholinesterase inhibitors such as Aricept® and Reminyl® appear to enhance the effects of CX717.
What does "stabilized" mean in the above context?
Thanks in advance
Neuro- many thanks for simplifying the concept (beer I can understand).
The 1200mg dose fooled me- I thought 800mg's was such a huge dose that I didn't realize it was even possible to take 1200mg's in a single dose- I thought the 1200 was the max for the day and was comprised of 2 or more smaller doses.
Much clearer now- much appreciated. Could pay dividends in Mexico as well.
BTW- the $3.15 close is suspect- I had a limit order at $3.17 that never filled but one at $3.19 that did.
Thanks again
Whether Psychiatry will go beyond the 1200mg dose--indeed whether Cortex will even ask for it, is yet to be determined.
Call me slow, but I still don't get it.
Re "going beyond the 1200mg dose", wasn't COR beyond it before with 800mg BID?
If they were beyond 1200mg's before, why wouldn't they ask for the same dose again? I would think they would want to attempt to duplicate their prior results.
Again, I'm thinking that 800mg BID is a bigger dose than 1200mg daily (I'm guessing from your earlier comments that maybe it actually isn't?).
Any thoughts/clarifications will be much appreciated.
I think Volume seems pretty low also. I would have thought more around the 5 Mil level. Think we will see the next day bounce tomorrow?
I'm wondering what the volume is saying (if anything). Maybe the volume is low because the big boys can't shake enough shares loose at these low levels.
If that is what is happening (maybe wishful thinking), then we could see a delayed upward explosion (as we've seen before) when they've accumulated enough shares.
Seems like a big upside at this level.
Seems very cheap here. My rec is buy,buy,buy (and meds,meds,meds)
cheers
.....we should be near $5.50.
I don't think so............think we need either the ADHD go-ahead (at 800mg BID) or a BP deal.
This isn't the hottest climate for the bios right now. I think I see a lot of value out there in the sector.
But this price is definitely too cheap- we should be closer to $4.
This is a gift at this level. COR was $3.10 on just hope not long ago.
Have to buy here.
cheers
Do they need to go beyond the 1200mg dose for ADHD? You don't just add 800 and 800 together to equal 1600mg.
I guess I do not understand what the 1200mg dose means. I thought it meant that's the total amount that can be given within 24 hours.
Does it instead mean that 1200mg's is the maximum amount that can be measured in blood levels within 24 hours?
Thanks for your help.
Good results were seen at 800, so 1200 should be better still.
If only it were true- the "800" you reference was BID (twice daily) so it's actually 1600, hence the query.
No beef here, just fuzziness re what it all means.
That would imply that 1600 wasn't asked for.
I think that is correct- I'm baffled why they didn't (apparently) ask for the 1600mg dose.
I didn't realize/anticipate the decision would be in this form.
Not sure what to make of it.
Evidently clarity comes this fall.
Willl it be an issue to move from 1200mg to 1600mg (800mg bid)?
From COR's March 6, 2006 PR
“We are delighted that we achieved a response with the 22 completers in the 800mg bid dose group,” said Dr. Roger Stoll, Chairman & CEO of Cortex. “It goes without saying that further studies with CX717 will be conducted in larger patient populations to further define the therapeutic dose and frequency of dosing.
I'm puzzled by today's release. I'm assuming that the 1200mg is daily and not bid.
Wondering why they didn't bump the dose limit higher?
Does this mean COR only asked for the 1200mg max dose for AD?
Thanks in advance for any clarity on this
OT- IDIX - another one bites the dust.
Doesn't IDIX now ideally suit what you're trying to find to buy???
Too tempting to resist- in at $3.64
Looks way too cheap.
cheers
I'm actually glad that the money is coming from the drug companies- I don't think Congress would spend the money and then the FDA would revert back to the days of huge backlogs/delays.
Can't help but think if CX717 was an AIDS drug it would be on the market already, instead of being bogged down over a dosing issue.
ADHD is clearly not a priority at the FDA.
....how about providing the agency with more adequate levels of funding?
Like bigger user fees?
>>Review times drop
Under the law, average review times dropped from 27 months to 10 months for standard products and from 21 months to six months for priority drugs, according to FDA data. The companies pay a fee for each application: In 2007 the amount is $448,100; the fee goes up to $896,200 if the review also requires clinical data.
PhRMA spokesman Karl Uhlendorf said he expects user fees to shoot up to $1 million to $1.2 million per application after the renewal.
Since the inception of user fees 15 years ago, the industry has paid more than $1.75 billion in user fees to the FDA, agency data shows. During the same time, FDA approved more than 1,200 new drugs and biologics. <<
(2 pages to the following story)
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/drug-industry-funding-fda-likely/story.aspx?guid=%7B334D3861-A...
I'm not convinced that annoying the FDA is the optimal strategy at this time.
Longs with a death wish? Disguised shorts?
The mind boggles
Thanks for the constant and consistent perspective/focus on success for COR
the FDA seems oblivious to any accountability to those affected by what appears to be a flaw iLn it's process.
I see it differently- I think neuro nailed it when he expressed that he believed that the FDA is simply being extra cautious/careful and is highly motivated to "get it right", especially in light of the revelation that this phenomena has been seen before by the FDA.
I understand the angst re the delay, but I see it as positive that they're not acting hastily; ie., the truth will out, and the truth seems overwhelmingly that it's an artifact.
Much better the right delayed decision than the wrong decision in haste- if the FDA were forced to act according to an arbitrary timetable, they might err on the side of caution and balk.
Considering FDA caution and overwork, the delay doesn't seem ominous at all- obviously, imo.
We'll all know fairly soon
Those who lost big $ when the FDA hold was imposed, will never ever recoup any of their losses....
Or they've already recovered by buying at $1.30 on Stoll's upbeat declaration that the problem was an artifact, and selling at 100% or greater gain since then.
Still comical, if somewhat twisted
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=4183&tid=3...
I will sue the FDA and BP involved for tampering and sue for punitive damages that will allow me to buy Cortex outright
Hmmm........Do you also have pants left at the dry cleaners worth $54 million?
How did that work out?
Appreciate the comedy but I'm thinking a better course might be.....meds, meds, and more meds.
cheers
Am I crazy?
Yup- unhinged, bonkers, nuts, etc.
But you have a lot of company- this board is collectively coming unglued from the stress of FDA phobia.
Neuro even prescribed meds but apparently not many are taking them.
it PROBABLY was just Piros' remarks that caused yesterday's buying
Only probably? If probable can mean 99.99% certainty then it seems only probable.
The massive spike occurred exactly at the time Piros mentioned the 3 stocks he currently likes and it affected all 3 of them at the same time.
CNBC has power.
The FDA conspiracy theory is bogus.
ps. The grassy knoll theory is also bogus- Nellie had it right.
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/jfk/related/1116nellie.html