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What taxes???
You know we have millions and millions of carry forward tax offsets right??? It is right in all the financial statement for several years.
FQ will buy access to coast and specific small portion of land needed for pads and waste. only about 5% of those two concessions.
Are you really that lost about what is happening or are you just trying to throw rocks aimlessly? UBS already had term sheets for FQ proposals. I get the feeling you do not read the news or the posts.
FQ is friendly, Inmet is not. Tilk vs. Pascall is completely different. Look at how differently they each have conducted business in the past. C'mon Man...don't pretend to be that clueless.
New York Times Wire this morning:
First Quantum Offers $5.2 Billion for Inmet Mining
By MARK SCOTT
LONDON – The mining company First Quantum has begun an improved 5.1 billion Canadian dollar ($5.2 billion) takeover offer for rival Inmet Mining in its latest attempt to buy the copper producer.
First Quantum, which operates mines from Zambia to Australia, said late on Sunday that it had offered Inmet Mining’s shareholders a cash-and-stock deal valued at a $72.87 for each share in the Canadian miner.
The renewed bid for Inmet Mining represents a slight increase from a previously rejected $70.85-a-share takeover approach for the copper producer, and a 36 percent premium on the mining company’s closing share price before it rejected First Quantum'S initial advances.
Inmet Mining’s board had rebuffed an earlier offer in late November valued at $63.26-a-share.
The proposed deal follows the announcement of the $32 billion takeover by the commodities trader Glencore for the mining giant Xstrata. Despite concerns that a downturn in Asian economies could hurt short-term demand, companies are seeking to gain access to metals and minerals in expectation that fast-growing economies will soon rebound.
First Quantum, which is based in Vancouver, British Columbia,(Walking distance from Petaquilla! We eat lunch in same places.) said the proposed deal would create one of the world’s leading copper producers that could produce around 1.3 million metric tons of the metal each year by 2018.
The mining company said it had taken its takeover approach directly to Inmet Mining’s shareholders, and called on the company’s board to reconsider its multibillion-dollar offer. First Quantum added that it had held discussions with a number of Inmet Mining’s key investors about the proposed deal.(POOR J. TILK, 40% OF INMET IS HELD BY JUST FOUR GUYS!!) The company did not say which investors it had contacted.
“We believe strongly in the prospects of a combination for our two companies,” First Quantum’s chief executive, Philip Pascall, said in a statement. “Our clear preference remains to engage with Inmet, as we believe strongly in the compelling strategic and financial merit of the transaction.”
Inmet Mining, which is based in Toronto, owns the Cobre Panama copper project, one of the world’s largest remaining untapped deposits of the metal. The mining company expects to spend more than $6 billion to develop the site, and recently announced a 27 percent increase in the project’s copper deposits.
First Quantum said that it would fund the takeover through its cash reserves and $2.5 billion of bank credit.(VERY DEEP POCKETS.)
Jefferies International, Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets are advising First Quantum on the deal.
OMG! Philip Pascall and J. Tilk are mentioned. This may be deleted as off topic, like last time. Read quickly, screen grab...
LOTS OF PUBLICITY NEWS SPREADS QUICK!
PRESS DIGEST-Canada-Dec 17
Related News
UPDATE 3-First Quantum dismayed by Inmet's refusal to engage
Thu, Nov 29 2012
Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:24am EST
Dec 17 (Reuters) - The following are the top stories from selected Canadian newspapers.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd has made a hostile, C$5.1 billion ($5.17 billion) takeover offer for Inmet Mining Corp, taking the bid directly to shareholders after two earlier offers were snubbed by the owner of one of the world's largest undeveloped copper assets. ()
Still puzzled by this gaping "thingy"! Is it closed, open, closing, staying the same....OMG I am at a loss for guidance and my gapper expert is not explaining anything!! OH!! The HORROR!!!
HELP!!!
All Tilk will have left is ego!! Hostile Takeover!!
LONDON | Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:44am EST
(Reuters) - Miner First Quantum (FM.TO) launched a sweetened offer for Canadian rival Inmet Mining (IMN.TO), taking to shareholders a deal that values the owner of the giant Cobre Panama copper project at about C$5.1 billion ($5.2 billion).
The offer, an improved C$72 per share to create what First Quantum says would be one of the world's top copper producers, compares to two previous approaches which valued Inmet at C$70 and C$62.50 per share - both rejected by the miner's board.
First Quantum said in a statement on Sunday that its vision of a combined group was shared by Inmet's "key shareholders" - potentially crucial support, given the top four investors own almost 40 percent of Inmet shares.
Its bid for Inmet led some analysts and investors to question whether First Quantum was moving away from a strategy that has relied on its engineering and construction expertise to deliver mid-sized projects at below-average cost. But like others in the sector, the miner has battled a dearth of high-quality copper deposits needed to fuel growth.
Inmet owns Cobre Panama, one of the world's largest untapped deposits and one of the last not already in the hands of a major miner. But the project is also one of the world's most expensive - a cost First Quantum believes it could considerably reduce.
On current guidance, the cost of developing the $6.2 billion Cobre Panama project stands at $23,000 per tonne said analysts at Nomura, compared with an average capital intensity for the sector of $18,500 per tonne - and around $6,000 per tonne for First Quantum's greenfield Sentinel project in Zambia.
First Quantum is one of the few global miners virtually focused on copper, with operations in Zambia's copper belt, but also in Australia, Finland and Mauritania.
Inmet, whose board has already adopted a rights plan it says would give it more time to evaluate bids, last week raised proven and probable reserves at Cobre Panama by 27 percent.
"While the switch to a hostile approach may increase the chances of success, in our view execution risks also rise," Citi analysts said in a note.
"Without prior access to conduct due diligence, the ability of First Quantum to exploit its competitive advantage in capital cost management is likely to be reduced, increasing the risk of overpayment."
TURNING FRIENDLY?
First Quantum left the door open for Inmet's board.
"Our clear preference remains to engage with Inmet, as we believe strongly in the compelling strategic and financial merit of the transaction," Philip Pascall, CEO and Chairman of First Quantum, said.
Inmet was not immediately reachable for comment.
First Quantum said the combined company would be one of the world's fastest-growing copper producers, with the potential to produce more than 1.3 million tonnes per year of copper by 2018.
According to details of the offer, Inmet shareholders can opt to receive either C$72 per share in cash or 3.2962 First Quantum shares plus 1 Canadian cent. Inmet stockholders also have an option to go for a mix of C$36 in cash plus 1.6484 First Quantum shares.
The offer value of C$72 per share is based on First Quantum's share price as at Nov 23, before its earlier formal proposal was made public. On current prices, it is worth C$70.5 per share.
Shares of Inmet closed at C$69.83 Friday on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
The cash component of the deal will be financed through a combination of First Quantum's existing cash resources and a $2.5 billion facility which is being arranged specifically to implement the offer, the company said.
Quantum. Still in ball game.
More News! Just as I told you!!!
First Quantum Increases Inmet Offer 2.9% to $5.18 Billion
By Liezel Hill - Dec 16, 2012 2:31 PM CT
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM), a producer of copper in Africa, raised its bid for Inmet Mining Corp. (IMN) for a second time to about C$5.1 billion ($5.18 billion) as it seeks to gain control of the Cobre Panama project.
It’s offering C$72 in a mixture of stock and cash for each Inmet share, Vancouver-based First Quantum said in a statement today. That’s 36 percent more than Inmet’s closing share price on Nov. 27, the day before the company announced that it had rejected two earlier, unsolicited offers from First Quantum. The latest bid is also 2.9 percent more than the prior offer of C$70 a share.
Enlarge image First Quantum Minerals Chairman and CEO Philip Pascall
“Our clear preference remains to engage with Inmet,” First Quantum Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Philip Pascall said in the statement. Photographer: Ron D'Raine/Bloomberg
“I don’t see how two dollars gets them over the hurdle,” John Goldsmith, deputy head of equities at Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc. in Toronto, which manages C$5.2 billion including First Quantum shares, said today by telephone. “The thinking originally was that this could go as high as C$75 to C$80. Is this going to be a series of little increases?”
First Quantum said the deal would create a company capable of becoming one of the world’s top-five copper producers within five years. Copper prices have more than quadrupled in the past 10 years as demand at times outpaced supply. Cobre Panama is the second-largest undeveloped copper deposit, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and Toronto-based Inmet plans to spend $6.2 billion developing the mine to produce an average of 266,000 tons a year of the metal.
Shareholder Talks
In addition to its project in Panama, Inmet operates mines in Finland, Spain and Turkey. Leucadia National Corp. (LUK), based in New York, owns 16 percent of Inmet and Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd., Singapore’s state investment company, has 11 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
First Quantum said today that after the disclosure of its initial bid, it was approached by some “key” Inmet shareholders who would support talks between the two companies.
“Our clear preference remains to engage with Inmet,” First Quantum Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Philip Pascall said in the statement.
Flora Wood, a spokeswoman for Inmet, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Inmet closed at C$69.83 in Toronto on Dec. 14.
Congo Assets
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Jefferies Group Inc. and RBC Capital Markets are advising First Quantum, which would fund about 50 percent of the deal in shares and about 50 percent in cash. First Quantum said it will use existing cash and is arranging a $2.5 billion credit facility.
The deal is the third-largest mining company takeover announced this year, after Glencore International Plc’s bid for Xstrata Plc and Sesa Goa Ltd.’s offer for Sterlite Industries India Ltd., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
First Quantum, founded in 1996 by Pascall, operates the Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia, the Guelb Moghrein copper and gold mine in Mauritania and the Ravensthorpe nickel mine Australia.
In 2009, the Congolese government stripped First Quantum of rights to the Kolwezi copper project. London-based Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. bought rights to Kolwezi the following year and First Quantum began legal action against ENRC. The dispute was settled in January when ENRC agreed to pay First Quantum $1.25 billion for First Quantum’s share of the Kolwezi and two other Congolese assets.
First Quantum is the world’s 13th-biggest copper producer and predicts it will become the sixth-biggest in 2016, it said in a February presentation.
(First Quantum scheduled a conference call at 10 a.m. New York time tomorrow. See www.first-quantum.com/ for the webcast.)
YES, QUANTUM IS STILL IN TOUCH WITH PETAQUILLA. THOSE IN THE LOOP KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING. SIGN ON DOOR: NO "TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DUDES ALLOWED!". LOL!!!
Just do the math...
If you have shares above the present share price and are convinced that the future will return the SP to the point where you will breakeven, if not prosper, why then, are you not buying more shares and averaging down your breakeven point? Either you do not trust your judgement that causes you to hold your present shares, or you have no money to average down your costs. If your breakeven is now $0.85 and you can buy an equal number of shares at $0.45 at the moment, this lowers your average cost to $0.65.
Surely it is not to difficult to understand that if you are holding shares because you are convinced that the share price will return to at least $0.85, it is certainly a "no brainer" to average down, so that when the price returns to at least $0.85 as you are now convinced, since you are holding your present shares, you will have a nice profit of 30% on your total investment and 47%, (.20x2=.40/.85=47%), on your original investment that broke even at $0.85. If you have no confidence then why are you just sitting on your shares and not selling, taking your tax loss this year, and moving on down the road?
This analysis is just based on a one-for-one average down. If you do a three fold increase, from your present holdings, you have a $0.55 breakeven and then rewards go up exponentially as the shares return to a buck when the GDXJ returns to its up cycle. To just sit and moan, like the famous lion with the thorn analogy, is counter productive by all metrics. Fish or cut bait...just do something!!! Buy, sell, or just get out of the way and stop taking up space and using air. This is just 6th grade math!!!
If you do not think that the share price can move to $0.55 where you would breakeven in the second scenario then you certainly need to move on....It all comes down to just common sense and not playing the game unless you have some chips. Yes, this is definitely a BUYING OPPORTUNITY!
Definitely more news coming this next week!!!
Time to celebrate Christmas as Hanukkah has passed. If you have been mean spirited this year you can expect coal in you stocking!!
If you have been positive and nice, maybe a big sack of oranges compliments of Richard Fifer and Petaquilla!
Never got an answer...is that "gap" thingy still open or has it closed, or is it closing or opening more, and what does the TA portend for December 31, 2012?? This is all just too confusing for a simple mind.
What a great job landing St. Telmo!
This of course has been in the works for over a year. The commitments for development are great and no one doubts that going into business with the Ybarra family is good news. I really like the financing mechanisms and the valuations based upon the exploration metrics going forward. The details and timelines, are what really makes this deal important for us.
Many here do not understand how important it is to do things that are beneficial to all interested parties. That is the way you build the future. Maybe we can send a bag or two of oranges to the little clueless ones as a citric dividend. LOL!!!
Does this mean the "gap" is closed???
I do not understand this TA stuff at all. I do know that 5,000 shares now at $0.467, bought at less that $0.42 this morning is good for a day's work. Inmet should be a little more respectful next week. They are in Spain and must know that the Ybarra family is one they do not want to be on the wrong side of, for even a minute. Even Franco gave them a very, very, wide birth I remember from living and working in Spain during his time.
News is going to flow a little faster now. As the days of Hanukkah draw to a close...think of the important things in life and let Petaquilla take care of itself. The future is sound.
It is imposition of paradoxical third world rules.
Chinese(Mandarin)#1
Spanish #2
English #3 and falling.
Loji, very important...Nicholas Ybarra, president, Luis Ybarra, general manager, do you realize who these people are? The holdings that they have? Definitely the "right" people to be in business with in Spain, Portugal, and all Latin America.
You obviously have not read the BD report!!
Read it and you will find the answers to all your questions!!!
Costs, feasibility, engineering, access, yields, methods, etc., etc., etc..
Just take a couple of hours to inform yourself before posting so that you don't appear unawares.
YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW THE NEWS OUT OF SPAIN THIS WEEK AND YET YOU INSULT MANAGEMENT. THIS IS SO PATHETIC!!
I doubt share price will move up.
We have increased and steady production for two years and are now filing our seventh or eighth consecutive profitable quarter, yet our SP is down over 60%. IMO GDXJ is the key and nothing else matters in the near term. Many here are calling for a return to the mid thirties. As I review all of the NI 43-101's filed by Petaquilla, I cannot find any where the resource was overestimated. The LP issue was purely technical and will be reversed. No one questioned the accuracy of the estimates. Perhaps you have some examples where we have over estimated, that you can share, as examples. That is a pretty large indictment of Dr. Ramcharan.
You state: "NI-43-101 is not good news." and then,"So in summation, while a 43-101 is good news..." Somewhat confusing to me.
Probably only several hundred follow our press releases closely and were aware of the information. I believe that a formal filing with third party certifications and a 90 page report prepared and published by Behre Dolbear, in appropriate places world wide will be read and analyzed by thousands of potential investors and is much more significant since it is governed by a multitude of regulations and protocols. Many investor automated systems are triggered for further research by just such NI 43-101's
While I celebrate this good news and also that out of Europe today, that is even more significant, I have little faith that it will move the share price. All it does is reconfirm to those who are investing that the caravan is on the right road for the future. Buying some daily right now...
Good Luck with whatever is your goal.
"My reasoning has historical presidence."
Do you mean precedence??
There is no evidence that previous NCIB use was to "prop-up" share price. There is no overriding precedence.
I interpret NCIB buying as the same as insider buying when I guess technically it is not. My point could have been better. When you have extra funds at the end of the year you put them in what you believe to be the best investment. Obviously, the powers that be at PTQ think that PTQ investment is appropriate.
"could be some good news coming"
Congratulations to Richard Fifer for excellent work in Spain. A hearty "Well Done!!" Right people + right contacts = great benefits.
Loji, there are a couple of nice maps.
Perhaps you might consider replacing the old ones in the I-Box with the newer more complete ones.
Breaking news from Spain!
Whoops!! It is in Spanish! Guess be will have to teach those Spaniards to use 'English Only' rules.
Let's see how long it takes to get in the English media.
Inmet stated another 10% For Sale.
No buyers at the price they wanted. They are now underfunded and just raising the money. New rich discoveries made the choice easy for them since project is much richer than previously known. Nothing much to do about anything...just business as usual. They have several billion dollars COH and are just closing out their financing.
Post #18866 bears repeating! 12/11/12 06:12:38 PM
Buying opportunity it certainly was for some.
Still buying right along with insiders.
There is definitely not a 'For Sale' sign in front of our offices in Panama City or Penonome. I have been by both this week.
The company continues to grow and prosper with a seventh consecutive profitable quarter soon to be filed, on January 15th.
Our Stockholder's Equity has grown to reflect successful operations:
2009 $(09.43MM)
2010 $(21.85MM)
2011 $ 10.07MM
2012 $ 57.93MM
2013 $ 93.00MM (Estimated)
A multi-million dollar 30% expansion at Molejon has just been commissioned last month, and will result in a very large increase on the bottom line that you can easily estimate from a simple discounted present value breakeven analysis. We are the largest exporter in Panama and have not yet tapped even one ounce of gold from our own reserves that will give us many LOM years.
So other than our current share price which correlates almost exactly with the sector depressed value of the GDXJ of about 50%, (non-Petaquilla specific), we will move back to a reasonable level as the sector improves due to macro economic events.
Our production cost at $524.00/oz. is one of the lowest in the industry giving us a GP of nearly $1,200.00oz. and, we are producing at a rate of 8,000oz./mo. since the expansion. For those on ignore, and too slow to do the math, that is a rate of 96,000oz. per year. With a little help from heap leaching that will be fully on line with the completion and loading of the new #3-400,000 ton pad we will be at the rate of over 100,000oz./yr. quite easily achieved. The first couple of cycles from the test 40,000 ton pad gave us apx. 300 ouncesin the quarter, so most fifth graders can figure out what 750,000 tons can yield. It is all at a cost of about $450.00/oz. too! Remember once the start up cycles are complete there is a steady flow of concentrate.
We have begun operations in Spain where we have booked one million ounces of reserves and where another million ounces will be incorporated into the reserves there as the twining drill holes are completed, per the Behre Dolbear report, and the additional open pit scenario is filed with the revised LP NI 43-101. By the end of this month we should have 350 people working
full time at Lomero-Poyatos.
Most inane comments would appear to be based on some emotional feeling, and is certainly not backed by any research, or the public record. More oafish comments that anything else. There is absolutely no reason to suspect that the company will not continue to grow and prosper, as it has since initiation of operations. We are well positioned in stable mining friendly environments, in both countries, and certainly should continue to prosper, as we do now. While ankle biting view may be supported by the majority of posters on this board, I can assure you it is not supported by our BOD, Management Team, and 2,000 plus employees.
It is unfortunate that most of the serious posters, who are actually informed, experienced, and educated, have ceased to post here. Perhaps those who dislike management, Panama, and the company in general, should sell and move on, especially if holdings are based on some hope that there will be a sale or some sort of liquidation of the company. No one really pays any attention to you and you have no influence over events or decisions.
It is just too absurd to complain that IR will not disclose information that is prohibited by law from dissemination to individual stockholders outside of all legal protocols and regulations. To expect such dis-closer just reflects the ignorance of the requester. To insult the IR spokes person and demean her position is cruel and totally without merit.
In the mean time those of us who do know what is happening continue to accumulate shares on the open market and are happy to take yours at these level. We have plenty of patience and very deep pockets. This is just too easy and too much fun!!!
Saludos!!
(PORTIONS TAKEN FROM SH POST AND EDITED.)
Reminder of the miss informed!!
"Incredible.
Official, no f***** insider is buying ANY share of his own company at these levels.
Zero
Null
Nothing
Niente"
You are misinformed and out of the loop!!!! LOL!!!! Check date of your post and dates of insider buys. No wonder your mind is hurt by the truth!!! You are out of the loop...everyone else knew about insider buying!!! There will be more to come. I am not expert on the technical stuff, but "closing the gap" or whatever metric you follow seems folly. Up or down a dime on volumes of less than .01% of the shares outstanding means nothing in the real world. You have noted yourself that you can move the SP by 5% with $100.00!
Dec 13/12 Dec 11/12 Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 14,000 $0.430
Dec 13/12 Dec 10/12 Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 27,500 $0.435
Dec 13/12 Dec 9/12 Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 75,500 $0.455
Dec 13/12 Dec 9/12 Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 4,500 $0.450
Dec 13/12 Dec 8/12 Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 80,000 $0.455
Dec 13/12 Dec 7/12 Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 79,000 $0.445
Perhaps I am wrong, but...
I would think that actually filling the Behre Dolbear 90 page report would have more impact and credibility than the October 30th Press Release. Look at the list of qualified certifications on SEDAR. There were comments that perhaps the actual NI 43-101 would not come to fruition and was just blowing smoke to confuse Inmet's HT. Now people can actually study the data in the public record.
The huge copper deposit has initially been planned for sale and shipment to China via Panama City.
In any case, now there is more information available, and more will be forthcoming.
The plot thickens.
What a coincidence...Inmet PR's same day the we filed on SEDAR NI 43-101 on our concessions. Wonder if they will follow-up with an NI 43-101? I guess ours shows that we were not just blowing smoke with our PR in October as some suggested. Now they can read the 90 page Behre Dolbear report of 12/11/2013. Expect share price to drop on good news! LOL!! That is a lot of Cu-Au-Ag!!
Redflame, and honest question deserves an answer.
"I hope this means more gold but I don't know enough about the technical side of the 43-101 release to understand what it all means."
I'll leave it to the Moderator to explain NI 43-101's. Bottom line is that it is much more significant that a PR and reflects analysis and interpretation from "qualified" third party experts that have to meet very strict protocols, rules, and laws. Easy way to think of it without going into the weeds, is that it is like an unqualified opinion from a well known accounting firm, but it also has legal force and interpretation.
They are talking about 19.75 Million Tons of Cu-Au-Ag ore.
Loji, the floor is yours!
jotapay, you win the day!!
I have never in my life, in any venue, or public place heard anyone say that:
"NI-43-101 is not good news. increased production and increased proven and probable reserves is good news."
This time I am actually speechless....what more can be said??
I wonder why the industry spends literally billions of dollars every year hiring "qualified experts" to develop the data within the extremely expensive requirements of internationally recognized protocols, rules, and laws over seen by the judiciary of every country in the world? NI 43-101's being the bankable and universally recognize standard of reporting excellence and the only available method recognized by all those involved from banks to shareholders at the standard. What a huge waste of effort and resources!!!!
Geico, I give up on this bunch!!!! See why it is just a waste of time? ROFLMAO!!!!
Geico, No reaction from this board!
Either they do not understand the significance of what you posted, or they don't really care about the long awaited news. I think there is one more NI 43-101 in the works from Panama concessions that will be out pretty soon. If our share price reacts as usual it will drop on more good news. LOL!
Pamilla is certainly close enough to Molejon to truck in the ore from the pit. LOM just keeps getting longer and longer.
Yes indeed!
Interesting news from Inmet today.
Gold drops $31.00 in 23 hours.
Ski is falling....sell, sell, sell...before it is too late!
I guess it is in interpretation.
If I see three huge ball mills rotating 24/7 with concentrate flowing out of the tanks after the process is completed, and then I see four huge ball mills rotating 24/7 will all the associated tanks and circuits in place and operating, followed by actual commissioning of the expansion, to me that is enormous news. It is not hypothetical it is physically right there in front of me running just like the other three components of production. Then I see the PR that it is running at brass plate capacity and the deal is sealed. The market doesn't agree with me and just shrugs it off.
Look at the I-box. FY's 2011 and 2012. Production goes up from 56Moz. to 68Moz. and EPS goes from $(0.03) to $0.10 about a 400% improvement and the share price drops from $1.25 to $0.35. PTQ does not react to good news. Someday when GDXJ goes back to it historical price we will move back up. At least that is the way I look at it.
Loji, do a breakeven analysis.
You underestimate the impact of 30% increase of production on the EPS. Remember the stockpiled reserves that have already been mined and then hold the G&A and Exploration as constants since neither should show much change over the short term. Likewise as a percentage of production the PM facilities will have a smaller impact even if they are not taken out. While GP will increase in a straight line, EPS will increase at a parabolic rate. If grades and all other things remain constant a 33% increase in production will put EPS at a higher level. Throw in a couple of hundred dollars more for gold/oz. thanks to the FEDs and Q3 should look very nice.
Share price prediction is a whole different issue. Looking at history, we will go down further!!
Agreed, but still no impact on SP.
Petaquilla SP does not move forward on good news generally speaking. However, with good Q3 news in early March it may move some because of direct bottom line effect on EPS. The fact that it did not move up with completion of a multimillion dollar 30% expansion is proof that "good news" has no effect at all. It will take long term improvement in earnings, combined with a 100% increase in GDXJ. In April 2011 GDXJ traded above $42.00/share. To return to that mark would be an increase of over 100% from today.
That is only a median price and PTQ should be to the right on the bell curve. Just at the median we would trade at +-$0.90/share all things being equal. With a 75-90% increase in EPS from the expansion, heap leaching, and a forward PE Ratio of about 2.2 we would expect to be above a dollar. But in reality GDXJ is in the dumps and so is our share price. Several have posted that we will not go above $0.65 at anytime before the end of June 2013. Some say we will not ever go above $0.80 for years. That is what makes markets and provides opportunity. Trading on unusual events, like the HT are another matter and provide separate opportunities that are short lived, but can be very profitable.
The wheels of progress sometimes seem to move very slowly, particularly when dealing with regulations in six different countries. But, as VB likes to say, "The caravan is always moving.". So let the dogs bark and the short visioned ankle biters nip. The Big Dogs are on the right porch and there are plenty of opportunities to rest there with them. I would be heavily that we will see something above $0.65 before the end of June 2013. That is where I put my money. To each his own.
OMG!!Savlo banned???
Will miss him dearly!! "THIS POS IS GOING TO $0.0001!!!"
Maybe he will resurface somewhere else!?
They will come to thank me.
RE:Remember: "Many persones here bought in the high 60ties because of your posting, dear MJKIII. So next time, think before you post such shit like beginnig of november.
thank you"
They will raise monuments, bring flowers, write songs, and celebrate their contact with me throughout their lives and even in future generations!!! I had no idea I had so many dedicated followers that hung on my every-word and invested their life saving on just my solo recommendations. However humbling it is for me to know this, I will accept their nomination for poster of the century!!
Some of us, contrary to what Loji posted, are actually bound by confidentiality agreements and protocols and only share what we are able. I am happy to know it was enough to induce you to invest. I can tell you that personally I continue to buy on a regular basis and have full confidence that this is a fine investment. If you do not, you need to listen more carefully.
PETAQUILLA ES PANAMA!!
FQ...FQ...FQ Terms Sheet via UBS!!
You missed it since you were not at the table...or even serving the coffee!! It was FQ at the table and they decided to take a crack at
the whole enchilada and made two offers of record to Inmet. Ask Pascall next time at lunch!!!! Can't help you understand...you are not one of those in the loop. Your loss...not ours. Maybe...if you had a significant investment you might know a little more.
"This was his keyline posted at Sunday, November 04, 2012 9:19:22 AM"
YES IT WAS AND THAT WAS TWO DAYS AFTER INMET HAD REJECTED THE FIRST OFFER OF QUANTUM, THAT YOU DID NOT EVEN KNOW HAD HAPPENED AND THAT TILK WAS PUBLICLY DENYING IN THE PRESS. YET IT IS NOW IN THE PUBLIC RECORD!!! YOU ARE OUT OF THE LOOP!!!!!!!!!!!!
You still have no idea what is being discussed and with whom. Based on your use of good material before, I see no reason to tell you, other than to say it is a good time to buy and own PTQ.
Ignorance is bliss. Use better link.
http://www.tmxmoney.com/HttpController?GetPage=InsiderTradeMarker&Market=T&Language=en
IF YOU HAD USED THIS LINK AT 12/10/2012 3:49:01 PM YOU WOULD HAVE SEEN THE BUYS...LOL!! THEY WERE RIGHT THERE AS WERE THE ADDITIONAL ONES. THEY DO NOT APPEAR FOR VERY LONG AS YOU CAN TELL NOW.
In addition, go back and read the posts wherein the Company and Panamanian Government have stated that the way Foundations and Companies are constructed in Panama it is impossible to know who owns what and who buys and sell what from the Public Record in Panama, unless they chose to let you know. Janet was I believe the spokes person who explained that for the Company back in the beginning of this board. Go read the explanations they are in the record. Bottom Line...your sources may not be good as the link above shows, and two you are out of the loop in Panama and that is your fault and not mine. Take two aspirin and don't call me in the morning.
"Who cares about a new ballmill down in the bush? no oney cares, the market is always right. The shareprice will recover to perhaps 80 cents with better markets in the years ahead of us. And than, the huge gold price rush is over"
I understand you analysis and your view. I do not understand why you invested in the company, if you actually have done so. I assume if you did you will sell at $0.80 and be gone. By the way it is not in the "bush", it is in the jungle. Huge difference if you have ever been on Safari. LOL!!
My pattern software says you are PMC. Welcome to IH. Listen and learn.
Lojiko, Petaquilla SP does not react to news.
Good news does not move it at all and, in fact, we seem to go down the better it gets. The key is the sector which follows along with the GDXJ. I have visions of $0.25 EPS, PE Ratio of 2.0 until some macro event moves the entire market. FEDS will announce at noon tomorrow a $500MMM new Q4 over the next year. Of course it will not work any better than the first three. However, it will drive up the price of gold and maybe make someone look at our mining sector with a more favorable view. Going back into hibernation since the board sort of depresses the Holiday Season. No worries...our time will come. Happy Hanukkah! Hope you are lighting your candles and contemplating how far the caravan has come....the destination is almost in sight.
Still buying right along with insiders.
There is definitely not a 'For Sale' sign in front of our offices in Panama City or Penonome. I have been by both this week.
The company continues to grow and prosper with a seventh consecutive profitable quarter soon to be filed, on January 15th.
Our Stockholder's Equity has grown to reflect successful operations:
2009 $(09.43MM)
2010 $(21.85MM)
2011 $ 10.07MM
2012 $ 57.93MM
2013 $ 93.00MM (Estimated)
A multi-million dollar 30% expansion at Molejon has just been commissioned last month, and will result in a very large increase on the bottom line that you can easily estimate from a simple discounted present value breakeven analysis. We are the largest exporter in Panama and have not yet tapped even one ounce of gold from our own reserves that will give us many LOM years.
So other than our current share price which correlates almost exactly with the sector depressed value of the GDXJ of about 50%, (non-Petaquilla specific), we will move back to a reasonable level as the sector improves due to macro economic events.
Our production cost at $524.00/oz. is one of the lowest in the industry giving us a GP of nearly $1,200.00oz. and, we are producing at a rate of 8,000oz./mo. since the expansion. For those on ignore, and too slow to do the math, that is a rate of 96,000oz. per year. With a little help from heap leaching that will be fully on line with the completion and loading of the new #3-400,000 ton pad we will be at the rate of over 100,000oz./yr. quite easily achieved. The first couple of cycles from the test 40,000 ton pad gave us apx. 300 ouncesin the quarter, so most fifth graders can figure out what 750,000 tons can yield. It is all at a cost of about $450.00/oz. too! Remember once the start up cycles are complete there is a steady flow of concentrate.
We have begun operations in Spain where we have booked one million ounces of reserves and where another million ounces will be incorporated into the reserves there as the twining drill holes are completed, per the Behre Dolbear report, and the additional open pit scenario is filed with the revised LP NI 43-101. By the end of this month we should have 350 people working
full time at Lomero-Poyatos.
Most inane comments would appear to be based on some emotional feeling, and is certainly not backed by any research, or the public record. More oafish comments that anything else. There is absolutely no reason to suspect that the company will not continue to grow and prosper, as it has since initiation of operations. We are well positioned in stable mining friendly environments, in both countries, and certainly should continue to prosper, as we do now. While ankle biting view may be supported by the majority of posters on this board, I can assure you it is not supported by our BOD, Management Team, and 2,000 plus employees.
It is unfortunate that most of the serious posters, who are actually informed, experienced, and educated, have ceased to post here. Perhaps those who dislike management, Panama, and the company in general, should sell and move on, especially if holdings are based on some hope that there will be a sale or some sort of liquidation of the company. No one really pays any attention to you and you have no influence over events or decisions.
It is just too absurd to complain that IR will not disclose information that is prohibited by law from dissemination to individual stockholders outside of all legal protocols and regulations. To expect such dis-closer just reflects the ignorance of the requester. To insult the IR spokes person and demean her position is cruel and totally without merit.
In the mean time those of us who do know what is happening continue to accumulate shares on the open market and are happy to take yours at these level. We have plenty of patience and very deep pockets. This is just too easy and too much fun!!!
Saludos!!
(PORTIONS TAKEN FROM SH POST AND EDITED.)
MD&A filed 1/15/13 will have news.
Also Q2 financial statements, notes, and comments. Preliminary numbers may be published before the end of Hanukkah.
Still buying right along with insiders.
There is definitely not a 'For Sale' sign in front of our offices in Panama City or Penonome. I have been by both this week.
The company continues to grow and prosper with a seventh consecutive profitable quarter soon to be filed, on January 15th.
Our Stockholder's Equity has grown to reflect successful operations:
2009 $(09.43MM)
2010 $(21.85MM)
2011 $ 10.07MM
2012 $ 57.93MM
2013 $ 93.00MM (Estimated)
A multi-million dollar 30% expansion at Molejon has just been commissioned last month, and will result in a very large increase on the bottom line that you can easily estimate from a simple discounted present value breakeven analysis. We are the largest exporter in Panama and have not yet tapped even one ounce of gold from our own reserves that will give us many LOM years.
So other than our current share price which correlates almost exactly with the sector depressed value of the GDXJ of about 50%, (non-Petaquilla specific), we will move back to a reasonable level as the sector improves due to macro economic events.
Our production cost at $524.00/oz. is one of the lowest in the industry giving us a GP of nearly $1,200.00oz. and, we are producing at a rate of 8,000oz./mo. since the expansion. For those on ignore, and too slow to do the math, that is a rate of 96,000oz. per year. With a little help from heap leaching that will be fully on line with the completion and loading of the new #3-400,000 ton pad we will be at the rate of over 100,000oz./yr. quite easily achieved. The first couple of cycles from the test 40,000 ton pad gave us apx. 300 ouncesin the quarter, so most fifth graders can figure out what 750,000 tons can yield. It is all at a cost of about $450.00/oz. too! Remember once the start up cycles are complete there is a steady flow of concentrate.
We have begun operations in Spain where we have booked one million ounces of reserves and where another million ounces will be incorporated into the reserves there as the twining drill holes are completed, per the Behre Dolbear report, and the additional open pit scenario is filed with the revised LP NI 43-101. By the end of this month we should have 350 people working
full time at Lomero-Poyatos.
Most inane comments would appear to be based on some emotional feeling, and is certainly not backed by any research, or the public record. More oafish comments that anything else. There is absolutely no reason to suspect that the company will not continue to grow and prosper, as it has since initiation of operations. We are well positioned in stable mining friendly environments, in both countries, and certainly should continue to prosper, as we do now. While ankle biting view may be supported by the majority of posters on this board, I can assure you it is not supported by our BOD, Management Team, and 2,000 plus employees.
It is unfortunate that most of the serious posters, who are actually informed, experienced, and educated, have ceased to post here. Perhaps those who dislike management, Panama, and the company in general, should sell and move on, especially if holdings are based on some hope that there will be a sale or some sort of liquidation of the company. No one really pays any attention to you and you have no influence over events or decisions.
It is just too absurd to complain that IR will not disclose information that is prohibited by law from dissemination to individual stockholders outside of all legal protocols and regulations. To expect such dis-closer just reflects the ignorance of the requester. To insult the IR spokes person and demean her position is cruel and totally without merit.
In the mean time those of us who do know what is happening continue to accumulate shares on the open market and are happy to take yours at these level. We have plenty of patience and very deep pockets. This is just too easy and too much fun!!!
Almost forgot...don't forget those shares bought in August and September and then sold on the open market in late September, up though October 8th, and not tendered to Inmet,can no be repurchased with all that profit and receive nearly twice as many shares as "wash sale" rule has passed and moves forward every day!! Great tax write offs also!!! What's not to like!!!! This has been a fantastic fall!!!!
Saludos!!
(PORTIONS TAKEN FROM SH POST AND EDITED.)
FYI, I THINK SPROTT SOLD 8MM SHARES.
Loji, could you work up some numbers?
Seems like 100,000oz. AuEq. will be very reasonable for calendar 2013. Based on $525.00oz. costs and $1,750.00 gold, with another million ounces coming in from the new LP N.I.43-101 bringing the open pit in Spain back into the equation, plus another 500,000oz. N.I. 43-101 coming from Panama, what does your formulations tell us is a reasonable share valuation now.
I am up to my ears here with the immediate situation and trying to also 'get-out-of-dodge'. It would be nice to see a calm collected analysis. You can assume that the PM facilities will be gone by the end of the first calendar quarter.
Thanks,
Nice to know you are here on the scene.
Nuevo Arenosa, a friend and his son crushed when home collapsed. Heaviest rain in some sectors in 55 years. I will tell his widow that all will be fine at the funeral Friday.
Poncewaves...Only one road in and out. It is a dead end at Molejon except for the little bypass to Inmet. There are a couple of key bridges, especially the long one build by Minera Panama before you actually get to Molejon. Water rose almost thirty feet under the deep canyon bridge last year. It may be fine, but I do not know. Problem if access is cut off and samples cannot be taken daily to the lab in Penonome. Nothing but jungle to the north. Panama runs east and west. The mines are north of the Pan American Highway. Last leg of road from Penonome is through La Pintada and is generally a north south one way road leading to Molejon.
There are lots of pictures of the flooding on Panama-America, Prensa, La Estrella, and Panama-Guide. The plant itself should have no problems with flooding. I don't know about the ponds or the pit. Obviously you cannot work during a deluge. I am thinking about short term production interruptions and delays if the roads are out. We have at least a week of diesel. You can bet the enviros are already bringing dead fish to the rivers to complain about the fish kill. LOL!! At least I hope this time they use fresh water species!!
Look at the front page of Panama-America...nice picture of rescue boat going right down the middle of the Pan-American Highway at Capria where it is covered with four+ feet of water.