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Amarin has already stated several times that they are planning on and expect an ADCOM due to the size of the potential market. An announcement of a ADCOM should be priced in at this point.
sts66, Sam posted updated numbers this morning.
If they holding it down, they are doing it with increased short interest. At some point they will have to cover those shares and it will rise with a vengeance. Everyone should be buying now if that is the case.
Amarin has already stated they believe there will be an ADCOM because of the potential size of the indication. I think the market expects that to happen at this point.
short interest update - Huge increase, someone is trying to suppress the price.
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
3/29/2019 21,149,076 10,714,138 1.973941
3/15/2019 16,859,967 8,086,743 2.084890
2/28/2019 17,514,524 10,037,142 1.744971
2/15/2019 15,412,976 4,855,404 3.174396
1/31/2019 15,065,645 7,767,156 1.939660
1/15/2019 16,974,105 12,298,414 1.380187
The people who chose to purchase the stock on a whim should have read the SEC filing instead. If they had, they would have been aware of the mineral oil issue because there is a discussion about it in AMRN quarterly reports.
93 studies? Where are you getting that from? Who is conducting these studies?
Cantor's latest *from IV board, Robcos
Amarin Corporation plc (AMRN - $19.61, Overweight, Target: $35.00)
Vascepa Can Give Your Heart A Break, Rxs As Of 3/29/19
Quick Take
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Takeaways
Per Symphony Health, TRx and NRx Count for Vascepa has grown meaningfully since pre-REDUCE-IT levels (see chart). Data is updated as of 3/29/19. Please see our physician survey that supports our positive outlook on Vascepa.
The latest full week script data represents an increase in TRx and NRx values for Vascepa since positive data at AHA on 11/10/2018.
This is a YoY TRx and NRx increase of 60.3% and 78.4% respectively, and decrease for WoW TRx and NRx values of -0.1% and -1.0%, respectively.
Total weekly Rxs of all drugs are up 0.22%. Symphony has confirmed that it has data capture issues which is affecting their numbers.
We would note that the recent initiative by the FDA to stop misleading advertising by dietary supplement companies could drive an acceleration in Vascepa Rxs over time. Also, AMRN has said that it will continue to focus on achieving its stated goals for 2019. These points underscore our OW rating for AMRN's stock.
AMRN has submitted the sNDA for label expansion per REDUCE-IT results and has received confirmation of receipt from the FDA. The FDA will communicate review timing in 60-74 days and begin a standard 10-month review with an expected PDUFA date near the end of January 2020.
Summary
According to Amarin, the company has historically experienced seasonality in certain quarters. Q1 tends to be slower and Q4 has historically been the best quarter. Amarin's sales force has just been expanded to ~400 sales reps which is at the level the company expects to start the year with. Trends we see now, if any, are early trends. With the print copy of REDUCE-IT results in NEJM available, Amarin can have copies made and distributed to its sales reps to give to healthcare professionals.
Valuation Summary
We continue to use a blend of DCF and multiples (EV/EBITDA) analysis to get to our 12-month price target of $35.
Valuation We continue to use a blend of DCF and multiples (EV/EBITDA) analysis to get to our 12month price target of $35.
Risks Risks: Amarin Corporation is a commercial stage company, although it is still involved in the clinical pathway to expand the label for its currently approved product. As such, Amarin is subject to certain risks.
Regulatory Risk: Actual clinical results and the FDA's conclusions may deviate from expectations. Many of our model assumptions are based on incomplete clinical data. Ultimately, it is the regulatory bodies of the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) that will determine the approval process of the clinical findings.
Competition: There are a number of companies developing or marketing therapies for the treatment and management of triglycerides. In fact, there are at least two approved, but not yet marketed, products that we believe could take advantage and launch in the light of a positive outcomes readout. These companies may have more marketing resources than Amarin, which would create significant competition in the marketplace.
Thank you for your post. It is amazing the FUD that a few posters can spread when given the opportunity.
They use Symphony data for this. That is how they get their trendlines of how reps are doing and what physicians are prescribing what drugs.
You can go with that explanation fi you want but once their data collection issue is fixed, the trends Symphony still puts out will be followed. This happens periodically with Symphony, someone doesn't report and the numbers come out low for a period of time. They do more estimating then they normally would for a period of time but they will get back on track.
TRx is where revenue comes from. No one except people on message boards talk about NRx.
Bloomberg article about an Amarin investor is out today titled "One-Man Equity Shop Returns 256% Since 2012 Without FAANGs" It is worth a read.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-05/one-man-equity-shop-has-returned-252-since-2012-without-faangs
Cantor, in their note after last Friday's scripts stated that Symphony has a data capture issue across all scripts. Not just Symphony scripts. Cantor stated that it looked like overall scripts were low by 2.1%. This is not just about Vascepa scripts.
I've seen where retail has gotten in the way of the FDA doing their job. In my example, by flooding the FDA with comments to regulation they slowed down the process that retail wanted sped up. I think it is best to let Amarin and the FDA do their job right now.
You probably missed the original post and language on this so you are reading it out of context.
Is it Express Scripts? I had a similar decrease in my BCBS Illinois that uses Express Scripts.
I think that we have all waited so long we want it to happen now. It will happen just not as fast as we want it to. Instead of everyone spending so much time posting on this message board we should be trying to spread the word.
@bs2537 BSharma has deleted his twitter posts related to $AMRN. I guess he has given up on his crusade. This includes the multiple times he called Dr. Bhatt a paid pumper. It is good to see those gone. Just an FYI.
No matter what size the shop, they are not going to put in a request for shares/ buy order unless they think the market cap is appropriate. Right now, they probably think it is too high given that they think they have some time before news.
I know an orthopedic surgeon that took his family skiing to Vail every spring break with his implant sales rep (and family) and the sales rep paid for everything. Every year, like clockwork.
I guess I was focusing in on the "They think they have until September (assuming priority) or even January to buy." I have heard elsewhere that those who owned the stock after the move into the 20's would get shaken out and give up their shares to institutions as the price dropped lower. That has not happened to the extent many thought and we are still trading in the 20's. I think many wanted to buy, they just wanted to buy lower.
My thoughts on their analysis.
Are these biotech funds and banks that own it, or those that want to own it? They think they can buy between now and September, great. They think retail own this stock and will sell on these drops but that's not happening. They want to buy it cheap but they are going to have to pay up.
No one is suggesting that there should not be any drug reps.
There are a need for some drug reps because some physicians still want to have this personalized service. There are many physicians who can not see drug reps because they are part of a large practice that doesn't allow it. Other physicians refuse to see them because they see it as a waste of time. Other physicians want to hear about drugs from other physicians. That is why drug companies have moved spending to KOLs. Amarin has done a great job of using KOLs to promote Vascepa at conferences and at dinners. Drug reps are also at these conferences and dinners in a supporting role. They are not the main speaker or the main draw for the physicians. Drugs reps now hand out materials in physician offices but they do not get the one on one time with physicians these once dine. You do not need 10,000 reps like in the past. This is a safe and easily prescribed drug. It's not complicated.
I personally think that many message board posters use Drug Reps as a reason why small companies definitely need to sell or partner with larger organizations. They do this to try and manipulate perceptions about what a small company can and can't do by themselves. Ways to promote a drug and medical devices have changed. They need to get over it. Amarin would not have the same peak sales of a large organization but their cost will also be smaller. My thoughts are partner out the rest of the world and take care of the United States. That is reasonable for Amarin to do alone. Amarin will primarily be a distributor of a drug that someone else manufactures. Recognition of Vascepa has grown exponentially since Reduce-it results were first published. The use of KOLs and the internet is where it is at. Recognition will continue to grow as it is presented around the United States. There are physicians over on twitter already wanting to know when it will be in Brazil and India. They get it.
From one of Dr Bhatt's previous post, he stated they are just now starting the biomarker analyses. I think he will have plenty to say in the year to come.
"By the way...it’s completed already..."
It looks like completion will not be until December 2019?
' I thought putting in an active sell order, however, prevented them from doing so. "
This gets passed around all the time but It is just retail message board myth.
Vascepa will be the only drug available for the new indication. It will be preventative and should have a low tier. That is where this is going. We need more standard of care discussions and the FDA indication before we end up in the right place in the formularies, but will get there.
That was old information. From Amarin PR - " Priority review status may be granted to regulatory filings in Canada for new treatments that potentially address serious, life-threatening conditions for which no drug is currently marketed in Canada , and for which there is substantial evidence of clinical effectiveness of that new treatment. Under priority review the performance target for the screening and review of the original submission is 215 calendar days versus 355 days for a standard review."
Just an FYI, Medications that are given a priority review in Canada still need to complete all of the required clinical studies, but these are reviewed in 180 days rather than the standard 300 days.
At the end of the traditional runway with the patient cliff, when AMRN has the large suppliers around the world making Vascepa in large quantities, I believe the runway is longer than some would think.
If AMRN keeps the price reasonable, a few hundred bucks a month and goes with wide availability, how will it be undercut? Just my two cents to add.
I don't think you will know the details of the filing until the ADCOM documents come out, or we get approval. The ADA just helped validate what we all know. AMRN will get expanded approval.
The bid is at 18.39, a five cent drop from the close. It will be gone in the morning.
GIA never meant that a company did not entertain buyout offers. To fail to entertain offers would be grounds for dismissal of the CEO and ultimately the board of directors.
I would agree. Everyone needs to quit playing the options and buy the stock.
Both the ADA and the AACE have guidelines. The AACE Annual Meeting is in April. Amarin has a nice booth right outside the restrooms.
Amarin has several suppliers, they will be the ones who need to have the cash flow to expand production.
6.6M now.