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Bove says 90-100% Dilution coming for FNMA Commons.
He also expects a 100% price appreciation in the Jr. Preferreds, and if they hold for three years, "well more than that."
Bove was a staunch supporter of the Commons position until August 2020.
Exceptional FNMA Facts. Can we sticky this?
Mongo disagrees with your analysis. Past does not dictate FNMA's future price.
Way too much dilution to justify a $26 price tag unless you're expecting a 1:10 Reverse Split.
Mongo knows.
1:10 Reverse Split, then re-IPO FNMA at ~$40-50.
It's coming amigos!
He's referencing the % ownership for existing Commons, not the price of FNMA
Let's get back to the FNMA Facts:
Commons are facing 90-100% Dilution. 100% = Death to Commons.
And Jr. Preferreds have 100% near-term up-side and much more in the years ahead.
Wrong. That's not how percentages work. Sorry amigo.
The Massive Dilution that Calabria spoke of is now confirmed by Bove.
Ownership for existing Commons will end up in the 0.0001%-10% range and most likely in the sub-4% range
That's not how percentages work. 100% dilution means existing Commons end up worthless. 90% means they end up with 10%.
I've long said expect less than 5% ownership. Looks like Bove agrees.
OMG, Bove says 90-100% Dilution coming for Commons.
He also expects a 100% price appreciation in the Jr. Preferreds, and if they hold for three years, "well more than that."
Bove calls for 90-100% Dilution of Commons in his latest interview.
Also says JPS have 100% upside in next few months and "much more" if they are held longer.
Yikes!!
We're all part of the same family though!
And when JPS get Converted to Commons, we'll be a close-knit family.
Cheer up amigos, it's coming!!
Too many JPS Series to list them all. Which is likely why there's going to be a large-scale Jr. Preferred to Common Conversion coming.
There's no reason for the GSEs to have 30 different JPS Series.
They will Convert and issue a few new Series of JPS in the future.
But the large majority (95%) of the capital raises will come from Common shares.
Sorry amigo, but that Massive Dilution that Calabria referenced is coming!
And yet, none of that might positively impact FNMA's price.
It's quite possible that everything goes our way and Commons still end up sub-$2.
It's amazing the Irrational Exuberance took FNMA to $5+ on a few occasions.
Yet here we are nearing the finish line and FNMA is barely above $2.20. The same price it was at 5 years ago!!
And in the same time frame, JPS have soared significantly.
Who would've thunk?!
Mongo says $50 JPS are crushing it again. Commons are trying to ride their coattails, but continue to struggle with the Pop Sellers.
It seems Jr. Preferreds are the only stocks capable of escaping the MM manipulation on the OTC
I don't think I would want my incentives to be aligned with the fellow travelers, even in the short term.
Possible. JPS are trying to pull Commons higher, but there are so many Pop Sellers FNMA is having a tough time finding its feet.
The inflow of new money into JPS is eye opening.
It's coming amigos!!
Gotta spend money to make money, right!?
Except, the GSEs can't spend capital while trying to raise $100-150B in new capital.
And the JPS aren't going away without a juicy Conversion to Commons or Big Dividends
GSE employees aren't FHFA employees. They wouldn't know what the FHFA & Treasury are discussing
Any Conversion will come at the direction of the FHFA.
It's a shame she's Gambling ~$70k on Commons when she could make a much more intelligent and informed investment in Jr. Preferreds.
Someone should warn her of the risks associated with FNMA Commons. Can you email her and invite her to this forum?
It's important she understands the high level risk (aka: Gambling) that she's taking by purchasing Common shares.
He's very confused it seems. I imagine that comment will go right into Calabria's trash can, which is where it belongs.
Guido, it looks like you finally came around. Congrats my friend.
It's probably best you continue to give the impression that Commons are going to $1,000 and don't mention your JPS investments
I feel bad that you're going to get attacked by the Commons Forever crowd now though.
On to the heavy lifting: $100B Capital Raise.
Jim Parrott will be on his Housing Team. That's all you need to know
#JoeBiden has convened invitation only #Housing policy advisory committee. The members have been sworn to secrecy. Jim Parrott (whose GSE sweep has been judged by courts to violate the law) has massive financial industry client conflicts is on it. #BidenHarris @ewarren
— joshua rosner (@JoshRosner) August 13, 2020
It's amazing how many Sellers there are at these prices.
I bet I could buy 2M Commons and barely move the price more than $0.02.
kthomp is a blessing to this board! He's patient and his posts are filled with FNMA Facts.
5-year JPS Chart compared to Commons says otherwise
That sounds like a losing strategy. Ackman isn't even dumb enough to do that.
Both Fannie and Freddie included Mnuchin's conversion possibility in their 2019 10-K reports.
Excellent post filled with FNMA Facts. Sticky Please!
but what is lost on many JPS posters are commons are still listed on an OTC
Maybe, and I mean maybe, you guys convert after relist, but certainly not while on OTC.
Have you seen the 5-year chart of JPS compared to Commons? I would say Commons are losing continually
Less earnings for the GSEs. Hurts Recap. No bueno!
Not with the GSEs. JPS are equity. Check their balance sheet
Looks like the MBA got their way again. Now we know who Calabria answers to.
Maybe a few more Angry Tweets directed at him will help the situation?