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Wow! We pretty much agree lock step!
The only practical difference is I am certain that Q4 was over $6mil and that Every quarter in 2021 will be over $6mil. Thus I have jumped maybe 3 months ahead of you on valuation.
Another persoective of mine is that I see similarities between VTSI and APT. In other words, what COVID is to APT is the same as what BLM/GeorgeFloyd is to VTSI. I believe the macro matters. Just takes a little time. My last point is that I believe VirTra has “turned down/discouraged” two different $80million dollar offers in the last 7 months but I do not know this for certain.
Question for you Schneid: What do think is the correct “fair value” for VTSI stock knowing what you know about the company and stock?
I ask because I disagree with your comment about speculation. While there are many stocks trading above fair value, there are also many trading far below fair value. Small company stocks have been beaten down for a couple years and it is about time some start to be valued correctly.
I also think the market is still very selective and that company performance matters.
The company retires (cancels) most of the shares they buy back. That is why total outstanding continues to decrease.
In last 10 min of day I bought some March and July $10strike calls.
Eps should be way over $3 for 2021.
I bought more today but their Q4 really sucked in terms of earnings. Revenue was ok. Gonna take time I’m afraid.
I bought even more shares. Sub $10 is just stupid.
Look at lumber.
And read Merc report, pulp prices are rising.
Analysts just starting to get it. There numbers starting to go up.
Look at July call contracts.
RFP is going up....,alot
From a pure chart perspective there might be a wee bit of resistance at about 6.5ish but the volume lately dwarfs that of the last two 6.5 peaks so it should power through without much trouble. Then it might actually start going up!
At 6.5 the market cap would be $50mil and the EV about $45mil. Both numbers are likely a PS of less than 2 based on 2021 revenue. As long as Q4 is about $6 to $7mil and Q1 is $5 to $8mil and Q2 is $6 to $8mil then it is very possible VTSI will be a $20 stock in July/August timeframe.
And if they lay a Q4 egg and Q1 egg.....back to the 3s.
Another way to think of VTSI - the stock,,,,is to think about the facts that we all know for sure.
1. We know the order intake number for Q2 from the 8k.
2. We know the order intake number for Q3 from the 8k.
3. We know at the mid Nov cc the CEO strongly guided full year 2020 to be more less the same as 2019 from a revenue perspective.
4. We know the Q3 rev and eps.
5. So we have a pretty firm grasp of the Q4 numbers that will be reported. Revenue of $6.5mil+/-0.5mil is my guess and eps of about 7 to 12cents.
6. We know 2020 Q1 numbers
7. We know 2020 Q2 numbers
8. Both of those make for very easy YOY comparisons for the early May Q1 report and early Aug Q2 report. And I would suggest this years Q1 and Q2 to be EASILY up over 100% vs year ago BECAUSE of the order intake numbers we know from the 8ks.
So really, there are only two unknowns between now and late August. The first is how the stock will react to the reports and the second is whether there will be a big gov contract awarded.
The encouraging thing is that based on the last few months there are definitely eyes on the stock and more buyers than sellers so I think the ground work is in place for continued upward movement in the stock.
Earnings report tomorrow morning.
I expect ok results and no immediate move in the stock.
Stock will then slowly trend up and pop big on the 27acre Compton sale.
Then slowly up for about 2 plus years.
Bought more today and will again tomorrow.
Always tough to sell a stock. That is why I really like the way VTSI is rising. It is orderly and steady with above avg volume. I much prefer this to 3 hour or 1 day spikes that end up being pumpndump. When it is a nice controlled steady rise much easier for me to hold and maybe even add sometimes.
All good!
The more I study this stock the more I like it.
Q4 report should light the fire.
I am wrong a lot. And I truly hope it goes up a ton and makes all shareholders some money.
The way I look at stocks just doesn’t work well on pre-revenue companies.
Biggest factor for me is all their PRs just sort of rubbed me the wrong way.
I do like checking out new tickers! And I’m wrong all the time. Mirage is not for me though. Perhaps it will skyrocket!
When I see a company with 3 people and a $100mil market cap without any product or revenue I run the other direction. Then when I read their press releases it really scares me. All fluff, no meat, nothing legal or binding. Absolutely no binding contracts of any sort.
My last thought though is that the name of the company is a nasty mean joke by the CEO. What could be more fitting than Mirage for a company that really does not exist.
Good stuff! Thanks for sharing.
Ah, I get it. I didn’t realize it was returning so many tickers.
I pretty much gave up on screeners about 10 years ago. All my best “finds” are from mentions from about 15 message board posters I trust on about 4 different forums.
THE best group are the regulars that post on the Ktcc message board in Investor Village. There are a hand full of awesome pickers, traders, investors there.
This VTSI board in ihub is also decent, some excellent people here. Just wish others would throw out more tickets to research.
There is a place and time for screeners.
With VTSI the timing is ok.
With SUP, not so much. Why didn’t it appear when it was $1.40? That is the problem with screens and programs.
Better question though is ....Why isnt AFI on your screener? Newer CEO. Debt free after Compton land sale. And the boom in homes and do it projects is going to be great for them.
Was a great morning to sell covered calls!
Thankyou INO!
Fun times and smooth upward sailing ahead.
Lumber $990.
Pulp rising.
Tissue profitable....sorta.
Market reaction to today’s stellar Q4 report was ridiculous, wrong, and simply stupid. I bought my first ever AxL shares today. It is undervalued by my favorite two metrics....PS and Ev/ebitda. Cash flow is also awesome as is their focus on decreasing debt. Several nice ev wins as well.
Nice start! Volume was 2% of outstanding. Not bad at all.
Yawn...,wake me at $12.
Great charts and vision!
Wfstf is worth $3 today and will easily go over $5 if lumber stays strong for another few months.
$990 today!
Scneid.....I look at it this way. The strength in small company stocks is way overdue and in many cases it is underpinned by very good companies that were undervalued by the market. Look at SUP, yes a great day but it is still trading at PS way below 1 and a sub 5 ev/ebitda. It is 7 now but worth $15 to $20. RFP has a PS of .4 and PE of 3 and Ev/ebitda of 5. It has gone from 1 to 10 but it is easily worth $20 for all the right reasons. Ones that are valued similarly but havent yet moved are AFI and UIHC and RELL. Then there are some very cheap big big companies like WFC and GILD. Look at a stock like AXL, I just bought my first ever shares. Read their earnings report from this morning. It is way too cheap. WFSTF is one that is going to double or triple within 6 months.
My point is this is a great stock pickers market and there are still many great stocks to buy and I put VTSI into that category.
Cool! I hope you are right as I am also in that camp.
Interesting to see the computer algos poking at the stock during premarket. With some stocks it is a decoy and with others a signal. Haven’t seen it enough with VTSI to have a clue.
And now a little OT....Axl announced Q4 this morning. Good numbers. But what it tells me is that SUP will have also had a good Q4. They will announce in early March. I think way more upside coming this year with SUP.
Last night LLNW posted disappointing results. Stock will get hit today and for a few days. Long term could be a big winner. New CEO started a couple weeks ago. He is the real deal. Good day to start buying and building a position.
I’m not proud, so I’ll ask.....smell what?
Always good to make money on a trade. Congrats. I still maintain there are far better and lower risk ways to make more than what you did with VTSI.
One obvious and easy to do example: At any time on any day, buy shares of INO and immediately sell out of the money calls for this Friday. INO calls are perfectly liquid. Have expirations every week. And trade at huge premiums. I’ve been making 7 to 20% every week for a few months now with what I consider zero risk.
The good thing with your approach on VTSI is you hold a core position....just in case. That is smart. Though expensive.
It would be interesting to know who the current stealth buyer of stock is.
Less interesting to know who is selling just ahead of the coming rise.
I suspect this continues up past 5 and 6 and 8 and 10....
We will know FOR SURE by end of May.....only 3 months!
I will say wfstf has a better chance to go up 3x or 4x.
But Rfp is a near certainty to double. I own lots of shares, lowest buy was 1.18. Highest buy was last week at 7.85.
Here are a few others I own and am still scaling into: afi, Sup, Vtsi, rell, uihc, uve, llnw
Happy times!
Just a good time to build a position. It takes off in 4 months.
Analyst est eps will continue to rise. $20 stock within 5 months.
Lumber $950, pulp going up!
Sup will be $15 by Thanksgiving
The stock can now rise, I am in and will continue buying.
While I like RFP better, Wfstf should be an easy double.
Vtsi needs some of the Axon and Wrap love. Valuations on each are crazy and while Axon the company is performing great, Wrap is stinking it up though the stock doesn’t much care!
Roughly 30 trading days til Q4 report.
Anyone have an opinion on VTSI chart or recent volume or job postings or big orders or or or.
Some questions....
Why haven’t the two new directors purchased shares?
Why did Ferris list the family shares for possible sale in the 2019 S3?
VirTra decided not to PR several $1mil+ orders in last couple months, why?
VirTra is now staffed to deliver revenue of $32+ mil for 2021, and they will!
Maybe my recent optimism is simply due to the big gains in many of my other stocks. I still have super high hopes for Vtsi, Afi, Llnw, Sup, Rfp, Rell and several others. I continue buying all these. A bunch of others I have sold.
I am trying to learn from all the newbies in the market. They are fundamentally clueless but what they believe they really believe. One can make money off of them. They have also shown me what is possible.
Vtsi......GREAT story, Great mission, Timely, Low float, Solid balance sheet, Growing Revenue, Profitable. All the ingredients are here except for one. THE CATALYST! I say it is Q1 report.
Further....I love that we have had a couple of massive volume days in the last year. Both were big up and both prove VTSI is on the radar of the big money computer algos.
While I think the Q4 report will be very good and garner some attention, my guess is that blast off immediately follows the Q1 report. Q2 report will add fuel.
VirTra continues to add staff, now at 114 by my estimate.
I hear you and agree to a great extent with your sentiment.
However, every stock is dead until it isn’t.
And very few companies provide updates between quarterly reports.
This is the greatest best stock market I have seen in my entire 55 years on Earth. Many stocks left for dead are participating. I suspect VTSI joins the party, just needs a catalyst. The story and numbers are intact and good enough or even great. I believe the catalyst will be the upcoming Q4,Q1,Q2 reports.
Since June1, 2020 VTSI has acted differently than in the past.
Easy to see on a one or two year chart.
What is the driver and why June 1, 2020?
June was too early to see the meteoric revenue rise just ahead of us.
Perhaps all G Floyd related?
It is going to be interesting and fun to see what the stock does this Summer.
I now think it makes a base at $15 and spikes over $80.
Buckle up.
Cub shareholders got screwed.
Buyout at 1.5x sales and less than where the stock was a year ago.
There will be many lawsuits.
The volume yesterday and today is encouraging.
54k today is not that far from 1% of outstanding shares.
I’m no chart guru but I love the chart now because when it breaks through 4.5ish it could go a long way up in one big hurry. I bet another 2 or 3mil volume day happens between the Q4 and Q1 reports.
Yes it is stupid. Very low volume drop. I bought many more shares. It is a gift and will recover quickly and step up to the teens by June or July.