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I'm not saying that he doesn't still support Anavex, or wants to see Anavex fail.
I'm saying that people are trying to make a connection that Anavex is going to partner or be purchased by Eisai, based on Hampel's move, but I see it just as likely that Hampel is now a competitor who was hired to help Eisai develop a competing drug platform.
Only time will tell what the truth is. It's easy to form connections when none exist. And I think that may be what is happening here.
Again, why does Eisai need Hampel to make a move for a partnership with AVXL? That is what doesn't make sense to me. Hampel is irrelevant in partnership/buyout discussions, and if Eisai wanted to buy AVXL it would have gotten the entire SAB board as part of the purchase.
Just strikes me as odd that nobody seems willing to discuss the possibility that Hampel may be competing. He can still wish the competition well. It's called good sportsmanship.
Eh, I think it's pretty safe to say that Hampel wasn't unemployed all this time he's been with Anavex. But when he went to an actual competitor, there was a conflict of interest that required him to part ways 100% with Anavex.
He could make a good living at any number of other jobs where he wouldn't have been forced to part ways with Anavex.
I guess I fail to see how him leaving for a competitor is a positive, or in any way makes it more likely that Eisai makes an offer for Anavex. It seems just as likely that Eisai wants Hampel to compete against Anavex.
Maybe. I don't know. Nobody knows.
What I do know is that Anavex losing Hampel is not good. Not now, and not for the long-term if you believe that Anavex is bigger than just the A273 molecule. His experience and knowledge was an asset that is now working for a competitor. People may want to spin this as a positive, but it can just as easily be spun as a negative -- Eisai doesn't want to partner, they want to compete, and they're willing to pay whatever it takes to acquire the best talent to give itself the best chance of succeeding in this competition.
If A273 is the real deal, and Eisai wants it badly enough, it could have made an offer without poaching Hampel.
What has changed is that Anavex has lost access to one of the best minds in the field. Eisai has gained that expertise. This is a net loss for Anavex.
Maybe there's a partnership brewing. Or maybe Eisai wants to compete against Anavex knowing it has significantly more resources to do so, and the first step is to poach the best available talent. If that talent happens to come from Anavex it's a double-whammy because not only does Eisai gain his knowledge, but Anavex is in a position where it must try to replace it with someone of equal caliber which is not going to be easy to do.
Maybe Hampel left AVXL's SAB because he decided Eisai is a better company.
Maybe AVXL is talking to Eisai. Maybe AVXL isn't.
Seems a stretch to make a connection based on removing someone from a website.
I think you are trying to form connections when there may not be any. It's easy to do, but risky.
The question that I have is why did Hampel leave Anavex in the first place to join a possible partner, but also a possible competitor?
People don't typically leave companies just before they do really big things if they're aware of what is on the horizon. Essai must have made one hell of an offer to pull Hampel away from AVXL but it seems a bit strange that he would want to leave, even an unpaid position on the SAB, if A273 is as good as everyone says it is.
Biogen is still very much in the picture as is every other large biotech company. If Biogen comes in with the best partnership offer, the Doc is not going to ignore it out of spite.
You said that "Biogen is dead to Dr. Missling" but you can't be certain of that. Maybe Biogen is dead to you because the Material Agreement ended up being a big ball of nothingness. But Biogen is still in the game so long as it has money to spend. Should Biogen make the best offer and Dr. Missling reject it out of spite he will be sued for breach of fiduciary duty.
Why didn't Biogen make an offer to partner? Maybe the blame is on Dr. Missling. Maybe Doc made it clear he wasn't interested in a partnership until the P3 data is revealed. Maybe Biogen doesn't want to risk committing a few billion dollars without knowing that it will have a product to sell. Too many variables right now for anyone to make an astute opinion about what is going through Dr. Missling's head -- or what is being discussed inside Biogen's board room.
You're missing the point, Frank.
Nobody is going to invest $200k, let alone $2M, in this company. There was a time when finding cheap money would have been possible but that ship sailed a long time ago.
Why wouldn't anyone invest $2M? Because the terms Parsi is proposing are garbage. Someone could take $2M, open up just as many stores as Parsi has opened, in better cities with more rain or whatever, and keep 100% of the profit.
Nobody is going to share their piece of the pie with Parsi. He brings nothing of value whatsoever. He's already proven that he has little experience with marketing/crowdfunding, he's shown his inexperience in understanding the intricacies of corporate financing when he admitted the mistake of taking toxic money from Hudson Bay or whoever it was, etc.
Celebrities don't come to Giggles n Hugs because they like Joey Parsi, so it's not like he's able to use that to his advantage.
Even his management team, they're all consultants. No loyalty to GIGL -- anyone who wanted to compete against GIGL could find just as experienced a group of consultants.
Name one thing Joey brings to the table that would warrant someone investing rather than going at it alone? His experience is related to his track record, and his track record is crap. Invested $9M+ over the past ten years, has only two stores open, and the company is still operating in the red.
So yeah your fantasy scenario sounds good on paper but Parsi isn't getting that $2M unless he wants to report to more toxic financing in which case the dilution will be a lot more than 200M shares. Not that it matters to Parsi because he's happy collecting a 6 figure salary plus bennies, and he has the ability to buy millions of shares for nothing to combat any dilution.
The ONLY hope this ever has of going back up is if a few chat rooms decide to pump and dump it. That could happen. But is it a good strategy to risk investing money based on the the hope one day it becomes a pump and dump? Probably not.
Yes, this company has less cash than a Walmart manager makes in three months.
How much of the "cash on hand" each month gets deposited into Joey's bank account, and does his performance justify that salary?
I just got home from work and didn't pay attention to the market today. Your analysis looks solid as usual though. Just a basic glance of the charts show that $3.05-$3.15 is a potential buying zone.
I don't know about that. People who are desperate often do desperate things. It's the same reason why people who aren't religious still pray when they need a miracle. There's always that hope that one more dose will cause something to happen, whereas not taking it means you know the outcome.
And yet he acts surprised when he'a not able to find new money for expansion.
This game is over. GIGL is never going to expand. Because nobody is going to give Parsi a dollar to invest if they know he's just going to use the money to pay himself and others via G&A.
Thanks for the correction. This is what I meant to articulate with regards to paying up.
As for Missling I’m reserving judgement until final fda vote. I’m more conservative than he is but sometimes it’s cost me. Other times it’s saved me. I’d play it safe with 273 and bet the house on 371 but if he wants to go all in on this hand....let’s see how it turns out.
Today's PR was a nice update, a thoughtful gesture from management, but a "who cares" moment in terms of the overall effect or impact it'll have on the long-term. Reading between the lines, one may interpret the data as positive because the patient elected to continue treatment. On the other hand, if the treatment is free and there are no side effects then why not continue even if it isn't showing signs of effectiveness on the off chance that more dosages will do something.
Only thing that matters is the final data. We are several weeks away from that PR which will be the one that matters, for better or worse.
Here's the question: Did Joey commit fraud when he used the offering funds to pay for G&A, and presumably his salary included in this, when the offering was to be used for expansion? Someone with a vested stake ought to go back and read the offering carefully. It probably has an exit clause in the fine print saying that funds can be use at the discretion of the company but then again Joey is a moron so he may not have been smart enough to hire a competent attorney.
The facts are:
1. Joey took money from shareholders, several hundred thousands of dollars, that were supposed to be used to grow the company, but were instead spent on G&A. The money was spent in a manner that did nothing to promote shareholder value.
2. Joey lacks the ability to open a new location.
This will be bankrupt soon. If not by Joey's own doing, someone else will come in and start a similar business and put Giggles out of business. Maybe it'll be me. I've already raised the money from my network to open four locations simultaneously. We've been visiting Giggles as well to see what they do well, and what they don't do well. Right now I'm debating between opening a Giggles type of place or a Diddy Riese type of place. Those who are local to LA know what Diddy Riese is. Those who are not should google image search it.
Best comment of the day!
Time is always the factor. Anavex's price hasn't moved much in the past 2 or 3 years. This means that it's found its rightful value for the time being.
Whether the competition stands to gain or lose is irrelevant. Anavex's value doesn't depend on the decisions Biogen or any other company makes. If A273 succeeds, Anavex becomes an acquisition target. If it flops, it'll go to zero.
Big Pharma isn't taking the risk of partnering until they see more evidence that Sigma1 is the answer. Same with hedge funds -- they aren't going to invest until they see more data. Doesn't change anything with regards to AVXL's intrinsic value.
Five years ago someone was willing to pay $15/share, and today only $3. Same stock, more data now than back then. What's changed?
Yup. We're firmly entrenched as evidence of the fact that a meaningless PR no longer moves the stock price 20-30%. Today's PR did nothing to advance the value of Anavex and I like that the market didn't respond to the news. It means that the price is finding its place and is becoming to borrow a macroeconomic term, "sticky."
Gators were my HS mascot. As for the present outlook, I think its fine for the time being. Just need to be patient and willing to accept that this investment can turn out good or bad, and the odds are about the same for both outcomes.
Anavex has a lot going for it, primarily that it's trying a new method of action that hasn't really been studied too much.
There's also a lot of question marks, more from a managerial level, about whether going at it alone is the best path forward versus leaving some on the table but diminishing the risk by partnering up early.
In the market there are always overvalued or undervalued stocks. Agreed.
However, it rarely (if ever) takes 5+ years for a stock to reach its equilibrium, value. At a certain point any objective person must accept that if a stock trades at a level for a long enough time, that is the market value until there is a reason, or catalyst, for the perceived value to change.
This is why arbitrage is usually a short-term situation.
You say that the wrong people own most of the stock. I disagree. The big funds that could own Anavex choose not to, and there's a reason they choose not to. At the current price the risk doesn't outweigh the reward. If and when that changes we'll see funds buying. But for the time being every major fund in America is aware of Anavex but chooses to invest elsewhere. Only time will tell if we are right or if they are right. We're the ones taking the biggest financial risk, but we also have the greatest upside. For a fund managing a few billion, a 25% gain is spectacular. That's the sort of return that gets an analyst promoted.
But you're incorrect to assume that "Big Pharma" and the "powers that be" hate Anavex. Maybe some competitors don't like Anavex but to the average fund manager the letters AVXL mean nothing. If Anavex represents an opportunity to make money, they'll own it. There's not nearly as much bias or hatred as you seem to think. Its just that right now the market believes there are better places to invest than in a highly speculative, non-revenue producing biotech. I can understand that.
There was a time not too long ago when today's PR would have moved the stock up 20% instantly.
Now it barely registers a blip in terms of share price.
This is a good sign.
You should also include the fact that he tries to represent his "all star management team" as employees when they're merely paid consultants.
Joey Parsi couldn't care less what the share price is because he's making a large enough salary, plus he gets a car, health insurance, and all the other perks and benefits. He's doing just fine. Not to mention he gets to purchase stock cheaper than everyone else to minimize dilution -- so a low share price means nothing to him.
I bailed once I realized that Parsi is not trustworthy.
If the market valued AVXL at $10 it would be trading at $10, or close to it.
AVXL is a speculative startup pursuing a treatment for a disease with a high fail rate. AVXL has no revenue and increasing operating costs which means that it's going to need to continue to raise money to fund its trials. Its CEO has credentials on paper and it's assembled a respected advisory board but Dr. Missling lacks a track record of bringing a drug to market.
There is also a lot of competition from both large and small biotech companies, and the fact that any approved treatment has a limited lifespan before it goes generic.
AVXL may have way more upside than $10, but until AVXL proves its drug is going to generate revenue it's an expensive lotto ticket and the market is treating it as such.
I agree but on the other hand, inclusion in an index is a privilege that can be taken away. Does the awareness work both ways? If AVXL gets dumped, would that leave a negative stain on the perception?
My point was more that any long-term value is going to come based on whether the drug works. It doesn't matter how many funds own the stock or how many investors are aware of the company.
If the drug works, Missling will receive buyout offers independent of anything else including current share price.
If the drug doesn't work, the value of the stock will drop independent of other factors including awareness.
As for the last 10 years of fiscal monetary policy, that free train ride is coming to and end soon, but I digress...
This is a fair comment. Side effects are an important consideration.
Traders will benefit from being added to the Russell Index. Maybe Dr. Missling sells some shares to LPC for a higher price next month than last month.
The intrinsic value of the asset(s) don't change though.
All long terms investors should care about is how much someone is willing to pay for A273 and/or how much revenue it can produce over its lifespan.
Russell Index means nothing for either of the above.
Certainly possible and if that is why they're raising funds via LPC I would be okay with that. My fear is that the data may not be so hot in P3 and Missling is finally hedging his bets by raising money now just in case he's not able to later on.
How often do you take Advil and Tylenol at the same time to treat a headache? They both have different MOAs but are used to treat the same problem.
I suppose it is possible that this new treatment isn't a competitor, especially if it is targeting a younger population, but long term it will be the ONLY treatment that doctors recommend if it can genetically stop Rett in its tracks, thereby making A273 unnecessary.
I think we can all agree that it would be best for shareholders if Anavex were the only company working on a promising Rett treatment. That's what I meant by competition.
It is a penny stock (.75 pre-split). For now.
Let's wait and judge the company once the trial results are out. If the drug fails it's lights out for Anavex because there won't be enough runway to advance the A371 trials and investors will be hard-pressed to bet on a similar type of drug.
But if the drug works, Anavex will become a multibillion dollar company overnight. I doubt it'll hit the $10-$20B valuation many here expect, though that would be fun. More likely it'll be valued somewhere in the $5-$10B range which is still going to result in considerable price appreciation.
The stock drop doesn't bother me so long as it hasn't been accompanied by bad trial data. Right now everyone's placing bets with zero ability to predict the future. There will be some winners and some losers. Stock price is meaningless for the time being although I do feel that it's partly undervalued due to poor management decisions from Day 1.
Semantics. Cure, treatment, all the same. Point is that anyone going after an effective treatment is a competitor, and this is to be expected. Rett may not be the most profitable disease to treat but the priority waiver a drug company will receive is absolutely worth the time and cost.
Gaps are one of the most overused TA terms. The actual meaning of the term is when a stock goes up or down a significant amount almost overnight. To see an example of this, one only has to look at any biotech that gets FDA approval or gets rejected.
People refer to long periods of stalemate followed by quick stock price as a gap, but that's not accurate. With AVXL, it was trading in the 2s for months and now it's slowly going up. That's not a gap -- though it does create new levels of support that may act as a weight to push the price back toward the 50/200 MAs.
A true gap would be if Anavex opened tomorrow at $8. Getting to $8 over a period of a month or even a week may result in selling pressure but it wouldn't;t be a gap n trap.
If it is trying to cure a disease that Anavex is also trying to cure, it's competition.
Rett is a race to first to market. Even if AVXL loses this race, the prize is always going to be Alzheimer's. How many people here had ever even heard of Rett before Anavex said its trying to cure it?
Yup. That's why I'm still holding my core. I'm just not going to call this an early victory based on preliminary data. I was calling Hillary the winner five hours before the polls closed, and look how that turned out. Taught me a valuable lesson that applies to stocks, particularly biotech.
I never said that sleep isn't important. It's very important.
What I said is that if A273 turns out to only be an effective sleep aid, and nothing more, that probably won't be good enough for FDA approval when the primary endpoints involve halting Alzheimer's.
Otherwise, A273 will simply be a more expensive, prescription version of NyQuil or Benadryl. And there's also Ambien and a ton of other sleep drugs.
Big difference between saying sleep isn't necessary (it is) and saying that a memory improvement drug that doesn't treat memory loss will be approved on the basis of sleep quality alone.
I don't know if I can explain this any more clearly so we can just agree to disagree if you don't understand the point I am making. I think most others here do.
I get what you're saying.
But there are already plenty of drugs on the market for insomnia. Many of which are over the counter. Someone who suffers from CNS could take one of these to help heal -- no need for AVXL if it doesn't also show improvement with cognition.
In all fairness, does anyone really believe the market will respond favorably if the primary endpoints are not met but a secondary one is? Just two days ago another drug startup hit both primaries, failed on one secondary, and the stock dropped 80% and hasn't recovered.
Saying that sleep improvement is all that's needed for FDA approval is tantamount to moving the goal posts up. We know what Anavex needs to show to score a touchdown. The endzone markings have been clearly established.
Sleep is important, no disagreement there.
But will a trial that shows tepid improvement in cognitive restoration but solid improvement in sleep quality be approved by the FDA?
That, I'm not so sure about whereas some here seem to believe that sleep on its own accord is enough to get FDA approval.
The mini-crash in December 2018 wasn't tax-selling. It was the market's reaction to a government shut down, which isn't a fluke at all given the current political climate. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that another shutdown occurs when the next budget needs to be approved.
Macroeconomics aside, $1.25 is possible because with a company like Anavex there isn't a valuation floor. If A273 fails, it's almost a certainty that the price of AVXL's stock drops well below the $1.25 threshold.
Compare this to more established, revenue-producing companies -- they tend to have quick ratios much greater than 1, so even a worst-case disaster scenario like planes falling from the sky will not result in a massive price crash. It's all about liquidation value.
On the other hand, AVXL has considerable upside. Way more than a revenue producing company that can be modeled easily for 5-10 year growth.
Not sure sleep matters all that much. Its a secondary, right?
If the trials show it misses on its primary goals but does promote better sleep, I think the stock loses 70% of its value in a matter of minutes.
Sleep is a nice bonus but I'm hesitant to call it sufficient without additional data demonstrating improved cognition.