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Wimus, option 1: cash in immediately and concentrate on the gems of the pipeline
let's see if IPCI one day understantds to be a biotech and not a value blue chip. LoL
It was not rethorical, I did know it, but he just forgot ...LOL
I've been riding Genfit, on Paris stock Exchange.
it's head to head with Intercept to be first in the market for NASH.
phase3, pure development stage biotech, cash likely to last until final approval,
potential market it's huge, but company currently has no revenue, no earnings, just cash burn; if approved will be hitting the market in 2019 and the market cap is....
...980Mln euro, 31mln shares !!!
rumor of a potential ascquisition sent the shares from 20 to 35 Yesterday...
more than one here would say it was corretly priced at 10, where it was last october, beacause it has just uncertainties on its future, nothing sure.
wZ...Sounds strange you didn't get the sense of a message
If technology is good and proven, we could have more than a Vegas party. LOL
just considering this 2 points we COULD be on the right train about to leave station.
Odidi speaks of a market "in the billions" for PRODRAS.
Pregabalin "next big thing".
GLTA
If he cancelled and he's not going to deliver anything by Tomorrow evening I will be disappointed.
Since it is more often than not my usual condition with IPCI nothing will change. LOL
Maybe this time I will be surprised and we get a PR after the close...or we stay with PR-in-friday ?
Barba non facit philosophum
So what kind of bias is leading you to destroy your money with ELTP?
Aren't you soffering of the "I-am-the-truth bias"?
Tek, we are on the same page.
Fingers crossed
Samsa, I would call it a reparation borrow.
They planned to cover their naked short within 3 days, but then the price goes up. So if they want to keep the Short open beyond the third day the need to borrow, to avid trades failure and the risk of being investigated.
The 30? cost of borrow tells there just a few shares left for lending.
Normal rate for a stock like ipci would probably be 5? (but I just have experience with mid to big caps which cost from 0.5% to 2? under average conditions)
Samsa,
those 1.9Mln (latest number available) shares short are legal shorts, which means with regular borrow, that's why you have the offical number of shares short.
Naked is used when you want to be opaque and possibly avoid the cost of borrowing, but it is illegal, and the risk of receiving a buy-in from the broker (it is a risk not a certainty) it is more likely to occur on the third day (counting from the day of short being opened). third day because it is related to the settlement of regular buys and sells which happens on the third day (counting from fay of transaction).
So who recurs to naked shorting (for intraday or 2-3 days) can be in serious problems if each time he sells short finds on the other side someone buying to hold (and not lending).
in conclusion, I don't know what is going on exactly, but what I feel is that the usual game made by the manipulators seems to be close to an end. fingers crossed
Sprot,
you do seem to build up an important position; are you becoming less pessimist on the company near term future ?
GLTY
Samsa,
also consider this: IF we are really in a situation where there are naked shorts around there, brokers looking for shares to be borrowed it's like blood being spreaded in the water...
then we could esily fall in the situation where a bigger shark will eat who has been a shark for us.
would love it, but now I want a good PR; I can't imagine Odidi cancelling that speech...it would have had a remarkable resonance for IPCI.
C'mon Odidi, help the bigger shark to destroy the small one
Shorting and Borrowing
30% cost of borrow (interest calculated on a daily basis) tells me that shares to be borrowed are about to finish.
Reasons: likely the floating has been reducing, due to some new long holders during the last 10 days, someone not willing to lend its shares (obviously).
The idea I get is that this search for shares by the brokers is due to naked shorts, as I posted recently; manipulators have been shorting the shares over the last year or so without the so called pre-borrow, that is to say they don't care if there are enough shares out there to borrow, they just short. Either because they think to cover in 1-2 days or because they are sure there can be enough quantity to be borrowed later on.
But if you are naked short, want to borrow, and there is no enough available, then you start asking to brokers and search for them.
The risk is that on the third day you get caught by a "buy-in" which forces the short to immediately close (cover) at the market...and this could get brutal.
What we all have to hope is that there is 1 or 2 new big holders continuosly accumulating...the squeeze will arrive from the buy-in more than from crazy buying.
IF we also get a big news, then the process will likely put those shorts in a very bad position.
let's see what heppens.
Likely one or two new big buyers and the usual flippers, sellers, altos, shorters...
Who's gonna win?
Crush them all...
When you want to short a stock, the first step is to borrow that stock (from some broker who has accounts with long positions).
If those long positions are stuck into pending sell orders they cannot be borrowed, therefore making the shorting more difficult and pushing towards a more likely covering for those already out, who can be required to cover if the long shares borrowed are now out for a sell order.
then there is the naked short, which is made without borrowing...it is not legal, but I believe is vastly used in stocks like IPCI
Amigo agreed, Zacks is trash Jmho.
It seems you do have a positive tone on what is happening to price/volume action.
Hope we get a nice surprise on Monday.
Amigo,
"wonder why" ?
as I wrote in the past a couple of times, I strongly believe this company shares will likely make 1 or 2 big jumps (not a steady progression), and that is due to the "war" between Odidi (with all his negatives as a manager of a listed company) and the manipulators who have been controlling the shares action over the last 3 years.
There was an old interview, put on this board maybe last year but referring back in the past, where Odidi clearly stated that he was put under big pressure to leave the control of the company (he concluded like "it is not yet time"). It did sound obviously personally and emotionally involved.
this made me think to the fact that he would love to challenge those people.
so we will likely have new ANDAs approvals and Rexista partnership before september, with the price not passing the 3.30 threshold, thanks to those nice guys playing the shares like a toy.
Then by the end of the year company results will drive the attention (or MORE attention) of a possible suitor. FIRST big JUMP
Prodras ph1 results will made the rest. SECOND and definitive JUMP (buyout).
Just a feeling, everybody can try to demolish what I just wrote and won't fight back; because the looking at price action and Odidi's behaviour over the last 3 years has Always given me the idea that there is much more behind the lines.
Samsa, Angelo, numbers,
one of the amendments of the Glucophage CRL is dated October 13, 2016.
The Agreement with MNK is end 28 of sept 2016.
This should tell us that the 3 ANDAs included in the Agreement were likely to be some on which the company didn't have any pending issue with the FDA. (one was indeed tentatively approved: Seroquel)
I guess it is something MKN would like to see/know before signing, right ?
This doesn't exclude that possible requirements from the FDA could have come after the Agreement signature, but I would say that the reason IPCI is reiterating the fact that they are confident about new approvals to come can be linked to the other 2 drugs included in the MKN Agreement not having pending issues with FDA.
Are u hoping to go below 2 so that you can buy some more?
Remember last time you said you are 60k long, therefore willing to loose around 30k USD to have to opportunity of buying...How much this time?
Don't get confused with the share count.
1mln today?
We get to almost 7mln in 2 days.
My feeling as well.
Amigo, you are right on the possible institutional action, an interested buyer would enjoy the usual trading tactics just buying everything is being sold.
Once the flippers/manipulators will finish their ammonition will get interesting.
no Sprot, your share count doesn't add up...how come you have 60K long...your were wiating to buy below 2, you sold @ 2.75 and some more last week.
Still puzzles me why you are 60k (or 40 or 30...whatever) long if you think it's going down.
I know which will be your answer, but you really sound not coeherent.
Sprot, you are assuming the future will be as the past over and over again.
at some point that won't be true, and none of us is gonna know it before it happens.
So you are right in the sense that if nothing happens we will go down, but in reality you are assuming that nothing happens.
GLTY
Guys, are u seriously digging for a name to be associated to a rumour?
I mean, are u expecting that someone committing something illecit would say..Yes, it's me.
It makes no sense to me (jmho) trying to give a value (true, fake) to a rumour based on the analysis of the source.
Rumour and source verification are a contradiction in terms in financial mkts.
That being said, let's stick with what we see. Very anomalous volume.
Tomorrow will be important to look at volume again, more than price.
Jmho
Don't get me wrong: the DD spirit of this board is amazing. Respect for everybody. We all deserve what we have been waiting for years.
Try to ask something more serious and keep in mind that They wouldn't answer if they are in talks with Novartis even if it is true.
Come on Sprot. Everybody who knows financial markets is aware of the rumours aspect, and that often they don't realise but they do have some elements of truth.
The the rumour can come from several sources, not just insiders. There advisors, services companies, journalists, regulators...And all people linked to them.
That's why more often than not you have a distorted message coming out.
I don't believe it's true, just because of rumours nature.
Asking the company would be ridiculous, no offense to you.
Everybody is taking the rumour well beyond what it is...Just a rumour.
More than 15? of company's shares were traded well before the rumour.
Let's stick with that.
To me that kind of volume looks disproportionate compared to the Anda's approval.
That's all I can say and all I can see.
Monday volume will tell us a lot.
It's not a pump (or at least it was very badly timed), since it arrived in the last part of the day with no effect on the price. More than 5mln shares were already traded!
The idea of a rumour that needs a process of verification or supervision just collides with concept of rumour itself.
That being said I consider it just a rumour and everybody should not give excessive enphasis.
What's in that rumour is too good to be true.
If you read it carefully it sounds like a transformative move, also alluding to a sale of the generics. Just too good
Wouldn't pay much attention to the rumor...Maybe it has some base but volume we have seen yesterday speaks louder. Something could be changing.
Concerning the hypothetical 10mln new shares, everybody is looking at the dilution aspect. But if the company gets 60mln cash upfront and 25mln coming from the news shares... Still makes 85mln cash per 40mln shares. Where do I have to sign?
Plus, IF it was true, multiple milestones would be in ...We are talking about 3 products.
It would be a Monster agreement...To good to be true.
Let's stick to what we see....Gigantic volume compared to the news.
Why with last rumor we got the trading stop and today no?
Go figure.
Anyway the real news here is volume, almost 20? of total shares outstanding.
I don't have a crystal ball but I would feel less confident in the repetition of the usual pattern.
A question of when and not if.
Novartis is on short list for Rexista given what Della Penna said at the last conf.
The fact that is a good fit for Regabating is giving more substance to possible agreements.
They recently made a partnership with Conatus, the structure of which would love to see happening for IPCI as well.
This are just rumours but the story is evolving
Just for the love of chatting...I guess 60mln would be the upfront...Then multiple steps.
60mln it's 2$ per share in cash...We would go to 5 overnight
That would be called consistency between what you say and what you do;
it is better to say that
you are long,
but you hope for the price go down,
so that you can buy more,
but you don't trust management
and then you sell but jus a part,
and you sell only because you want to buy more and cheaper
and so you wish it goes down,
then you buy back just to wait for the leg up
and saying that the pipeline sucks, competition hurts and so on...
uh?
well a little bit difficult to see the logic in this---but that's probably me ---
More than the approval I would try to understand if volume is telling us something;
we already are in the second highest volume of the last 3 years, yes 3 years. So could be wash trading, shorting, flippers, gap fillers...but..
..not bad for just another minor event, as some of you are considering the approval.
What is important here (JMHO), as I wrote before, is that the flipping game could see some new variables leading to a something different.
I have read that more than one believes that a trading pattern perpetrates itself, virtually identycally and indefinately.
History teaches that at one time (and nobody or just very very few understands when) the pattern changes.
So the algo which did so good in the past starts to give wrong signals, TA analysis fails to recognize the new pattern until it consolidates, and so on.
Many here keep on speaking about the uncertainty (which is true) and trade accordingly, because it worked in the past.
So they are CERTAIN about the UNCERTAINTY to remain.
That's where I see the wrong in this logic; and I'm not saying on monday we fly or whatever...
I'm just saying that just because it followed a pattern in the past it is not going to repeat again and again.
J Cali, Cysonic,
thanks a lot for your clarification, much appreciated !
C'mon Amigo,
now your sounding way too pessimistic; keppra is penauts compared to Glucophage. They have to have a partner on a short list and since it was the longest date, could also be possible the 3 longest (filed in 2010) are going to be part of multi-step Agreement on the MKN style. What do you think ?
As I pointed out many times; it is more important to get the manipulators crushed than make a fine tuning on future revenue and product market share. JMHO
And ...I hate what they did with bonuses for Keppra
you can find in the press release:
http://www.intellipharmaceutics.com/releases.cfm
we have to reconcile that number with the 2.7B which is on their website as well (and in each and every presentation made) and it is indicated as coming from the same source (Symphony Health Solutions).
http://www.intellipharmaceutics.com/pipeline.cfm
TIA to whoever can help us
That is what I hope, the overnight monster gap, who kills shorters and push manipulators out of the game.
I expect them to keep on with their strategy, which is disconnected with company fundamentals or pipeline; they just want to control the floating and do whatever they want.
How could it end their game ?
two ways: the monster gap (it all depends on a big Agreement) or new long holders coming in town, so that the floating will be increasingly reduced to the point their strategy will become like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer!!
Let's see what happens, but this approval could prove a reversal (mainly from a trader psicology point of view). we have to build a newsflow momentum.