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Given that TEVA is nearly 6X WPI's market size, I'd think that article makes clear why WPI might be reluctant to launch at risk - much closer to betting the company.
(No dog in this fight, or at least not much of one - I've pared my MNTA holdings way back.)
Has this been posted here? If so, apologies.
WSJ:
>>Cancer Drug Shows Promise for Alzheimer's
By GAUTAM NAIK
A cancer drug has improved mental function and social ability and restored the sense of smell in mice bred with a form of Alzheimer's disease, suggesting a new way to tackle the illness in people.
Alzheimer's disease is associated with the accumulation of protein fragments called amyloid-beta in the brain. The new research shows that a skin-cancer drug called bexarotene cleared the protein in the brains of stricken mice within days. The study was published in the journal Science.
Because bexarotene is known to be safe for the treatment of skin cancer, "it might be worth trying in Alzheimer's patients as well," said Rada Koldamova, a neuroscientist who works on Alzheimer's at the University of Pittsburgh and who wasn't part of the study. However, she added, the drug's effectiveness against the brain malady would first have to be established in human trials. Test results in mice often don't pan out in humans.
Everyone's brain produces amyloid-beta protein, but while a healthy brain can efficiently remove the protein fragments, the brain of a person with Alzheimer's disease can't. The resulting buildup is believed to result in the impaired learning and memory functions seen in Alzheimer's patients.
The disease is a growing problem, especially in aging societies, but an effective treatment has eluded researchers. The drugs used today work for a short time and only relieve symptoms, instead of halting the disease. Over the years, drugs in about a half-dozen late-stage human trials have failed to make the cut.
In 2010, Eli Lilly & Co. abandoned a treatment that blocked an enzyme linked to amyloid formation; the trial was stopped because the medication appeared to worsen some patients' condition. Another technique, currently being tested in patients, is to reduce protein formation by triggering an immune response.
The new research, funded by a number of foundations, takes a completely different approach, said Gary Landreth, a neuroscientist at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland and a co-author of the Science study. His team's method, he says, is to "help Mother Nature do what she normally does" in clearing away amyloid fragments from the brain.
Scientists know that a protein called ApoE acts as a sort of garbage-disposal unit, helping to degrade amyloid-beta proteins. Dr. Landreth figured that if he could get the brain to make more ApoE, the protein clearance would be enhanced.
He set his sights on bexarotene, an orally administered drug known to activate a protein that helps switch on the ApoE gene. In 2009, Dr. Landreth asked a newly minted postgraduate student in his lab to give the drug to some "Alzheimer mice." Three days later, the amyloid plaques in their brains had largely disappeared.
"It was unprecedented," Dr. Landreth recalled. "I initially thought she had screwed up."
In the Science study, Dr. Landreth and his colleagues describe similar tests done with over 100 mice. When the drug was fed to mice with Alzheimer-like symptoms, it quickly improved their cognitive, social and olfactory functions. Losing the sense of smell, a disorienting and often debilitating experience, can be one of the first signs of Alzheimer's.
Healthy mice will typically gather pieces of paper towels strewn around their cage and use them to make a nest. Alzheimer mice don't exhibit that behavior. In the lab experiments, when the treatment was given to diseased mice, they made nests, a sign of cognitive improvement. The benefits in the mice lasted for up to three months, at which stage the scientists stopped their observations.
In the U.S., bexarotene is sold under the name Targretin, which is owned and marketed by Japan's Eisai Co. Patents on the drug will start to expire this year, one reason drug companies may be reluctant to jump on bexarotene as a possible Alzheimer's treatment.
Dr. Landreth and a co-author, Paige Cramer, are founding scientists of ReXceptor Inc., which has licensing options from Case Western on the use of bexarotene to treat Alzheimer's disease.
Bexarotene is a long way from being an approved Alzheimer's drug, or even being deemed ready for off-label use—when a doctor legally prescribes a drug for an unapproved use. As a first step, Dr. Landreth is planning a safety trial in a dozen patients.
He needs to figure out the right dose and duration of the treatment for prospective Alzheimer's patients, and judge the effects over several months. If all goes well, he hopes to engineer a version of the medicine that is more potent and works at a lower dose than bexarotene.
Carl Wagner, an organic chemist at Arizona State University who is collaborating with Dr. Landreth on the project, said he had synthesized half a dozen such versions and was testing them.
Not I, I was simply passing on the Merrill bullish opinion.
BTW, this was not a new call, but a reiteration.
Merrill maintains CNH on its "US 1" list.
I didn't realize this, but Glencore is Marc Rich's company.
certainly something Janus-like, but throw in a bit of Rube Goldberg to symbolize all the moving parts.
The stock price is talking, indistinctly.
"encouraging" is on a level with "we are excited" as a warning flag.
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UPDATE 1-Merged Glencore, Xstrata would take aim at iron ore
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Fri Feb 3, 2012 7:58am EST
* Glencore, Xstrata marriage could trigger iron ore M&As
* Iron ore conspicuous in absence from Xstrata stable
* High-margin potential in iron ore hard to resist
By James Regan
SYDNEY, Feb 3 (Reuters) - An $80 billion marriage of commodities trader Glencore and miner Xstrata could lead to a new round of takeovers in iron ore, creating a goliath eager to muscle its way onto one of mining's richest and most closely guarded sectors.
Glencore and Xstrata, which have yet to reach a deal, would together rank as the world's largest thermal coal exporter, the largest zinc producer and third-largest copper miner - but would remain all but non-existent in iron ore mining.
Xstrata wants to get into iron ore, underlined in 2009 by its attempt to buy mining giant AngloAmerican. But it has been thwarted by a scarcity of major new discoveries and a virtual oligopoly among mining giants Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, which have no intention of loosening their grip, say industry players and analysts.
"With a fortified balance sheet thanks to Glencore, it's a logical move for Xstrata which should light a fire under the others, like Vale," said an Australian mining executive who asked not to be named.
<snip>
The Xstrata deal, WSJ. Will it pass antitrust review?
Glencore Must Dig Deeper for Xstrata
By ANDREW PEAPLE
Ivan Glasenberg is a man in a hurry.
Just eight months after Glencore's $59 billion stock-market flotation, the chief executive of the Swiss mining giant has proposed an all-share merger of equals with sister company Xstrata in a deal that could create a company worth $82 billion. Mr. Glasenberg has made no secret of his ambition to re-combine the two groups, which were split apart following Xstrata's 2002 IPO. Glencore has until March 1 to make a formal offer. But Xstrata shareholders should demand that Glencore pay a premium.
First, a deal without a premium won't be a true merger of equals. Glencore already owns 34.1% of Xstrata, whose market value was $34.6 billion at Wednesday's closing price. Add that to Glencore's own market value of $47.2 billion, and its shareholders will control roughly 58% of the combined group. What is more, around 80% of Glencore's shares are held by its employees, giving them 46% of the combined group. Though management and board responsibilities could be split equally, it seems Glencore's current shareholders will have the upper hand. Having Mick Davis, Xstrata's CEO, as the combined company's head might soothe some nerves, but investors might worry how long Mr. Glasenberg might be prepared to play second fiddle.
Second, it isn't clear a merger will create value. Cost savings are likely to be minimal, at up to $110 million, according to Credit Suisse. Glencore has previously argued that the real value of a deal lies in economies of scale, in particular the opportunity for Glencore's traders to source cheap product from Xstrata's mines. But Mr. Davis has historically questioned these benefits. At best, revenue and cost synergies could total only about 5% of expected 2012 combined net income, or about $475 million, according to Credit Suisse. Capitalized, that is worth around $4.8 billion. On the other hand, Xstrata has strong organic growth opportunities on its own that investors may be reluctant to see diluted by exposure to Glencore's low-growth trading operations.
Third, Xstrata investors may wonder why now. By Wednesday's close, Glencore's shares had fallen 18% since its May float, but Xstrata's had fallen 20%, with both stocks significantly underperforming their peers. But the outlook for the price of copper, Xstrata's main commodity, has recently started to look more bullish, rallying from October's low of $6,635 a metric ton to $8,440 a metric ton amid talk it might regain its 2011 peak of $10,000 a ton. Mr. Glasenberg is a canny trader, and the timing of his approach looks opportunistic.
But Xstrata shareholders shouldn't raise their hopes of a large premium from Glencore. The reality is that rival bidders are likely to be discouraged by the need to offer a hefty premium to persuade Glencore to sell; besides, other major miners seem set on organic growth strategies. A merger with Glencore would at least resolve what both sides agree is an unsustainable situation. But unlike Mr. Glasenberg, Mr. Davis has the luxury of time. He should use it to full advantage.
I don't remember if this was discussed yesterday, but I have read that curcumin should be combined with piperine to increase bioavailability.
there is not much hard evidence for any viewpoint.
Seems that each study showing benefit for a particular supplement will be followed by another showing potential harm.
Vitamin D in large doses has gone from being a villain to a savior.
That sounds like a poisonous situation, esp if leads to the factionalization of the executive floor.
(I own some MMM)
In total, sales and revenues in Asia/Pacific are up 49 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 versus the fourth quarter of 2010. Excluding our Bucyrus acquisition, sales and revenues in Asia/Pacific were up about 32 percent.
Astounding numbers.
The reasoning must be that the harm will be repairable at trial and via any subsequent settlement
Is such a motion argued in court, or is a written submission alone?
Seems to me MNTA is in a binary situation right now.
Uncomfortably binary.
Difference is that these people are a lot smarter than NBA owners (or should be).
From a WSJ article on succession issues at MMM
Mr. Thulin, a 58-year-old native of Malmo, Sweden, joined 3M in 1979 and ran international operations before becoming operating chief last year. In talks with investors and analysts, he has shown no sign of differing from Mr. Buckley's strategy of seeking faster growth through acquisitions, more product introductions and a focus on fast-growing markets like China and India.
Down 2 pre market
WSJ
Novartis Cautious on Outlook as Profit Drops 46%
By STEN STOVALL
Switzerland's Novartis AG on Wednesday said its profitability will decline this year because of competition from generic rivals, continued drug price cuts and the need to make further investments in innovative therapies.
The Swiss drug maker, which is trying to balance the sales decline stemming from the expiry of its blockbuster heart drug Diovan, issued the cautious earnings outlook for 2012 as it reported a 46% drop in fourth-quarter net profit, hit by restructuring costs, research and development write-offs, lower drug prices and the strong Swiss franc.
Kicking off the reporting season for European drug makers, Novartis said sales measured in constant currencies are expected to be in line with 2011, while core operating income margin is expected to be slightly below that achieved last year, despite recent restructurings and lucrative new drug launches.
"While productivity measures and margin improvements on products launched since 2007 are important contributions to improving profitability, they are not expected to fully offset the loss of margin from generic competition, price erosion, new investments necessary to sustain growth in new products and the impact of a delayed start-up of [the company's Lincoln, Nebraska consumer health facility.]," the drug maker said.
Novartis, which reports in dollars, has been continually cutting costs since Joe Jimenez took over the helm as chief executive in 2010. Mr. Jimenez on Wednesday said more cost savings of between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion will be needed this year to keep the company on track.
He also said Novartis's multiple-sclerosis drug Gilenya is expected to remain a growth driver despite worries about the potential blockbuster's prospects after safety concerns were recently raised.
For the latest quarter, the Basel-based pharmaceuticals company recorded net charges totaling $1.5 billion, helping produce a steep decline in net profit for the three months to Dec. 31. It slumped to $1.18 billion from $2.17 billion a year-earlier, missing market forecasts of $1.76 billion.
Sales for the quarter beat views, rising 4.1% to $14.78 billion, helped by the full inclusion of eye care company Alcon. That revenue rise came despite the company's two blockbuster products, Diovan and cancer medicine Femara, being hit hard by generic competition. Analysts had forecast total net sales at $14.63 billion.
The market interpreted the company's news as negative overall, and sold Novartis shares, but analysts said the reaction would probably be short-lived.
Bank Sarasin analyst David Kaegi said the fourth-quarter sales and 2012 guidance were slightly better than expected. "It now only sees core operating profit 'slightly' below last year's level, and that is good news," he said.
Novartis shares in the European morning were down 2.1% at 50.90 Swiss francs ($54.87) in a slightly lower Swiss market.
The company's restructuring plans reflect troubles facing the whole pharma sector which, besides steep drug price cuts in Europe and the U.S., is also smarting from revenue declines due to drug patent expirations. Novartis is the world's second-largest pharmaceuticals company by sales behind Pfizer Inc.
Earlier this month the Swiss group said it will cut nearly 2,000 of its U.S. workforce and will take a $900 million charge after another of its key drugs, blood pressure medicine Rasilez, failed to live up to expectations. The changes are expected to take place in the second quarter of this year. That was in addition to some 2,000 job cuts—mostly in Switzerland and the U.S.—announced in October in a revamp whose costs were booked in the latest quarter.
Write to Sten Stovall at sten.stovall@dowjones.com
WSJ (BHP)
BP’s latest long-term energy outlook actually appears to offer better news for that other big London-listed commodity producer, BHP Billiton.
Demand for BP’s main product, oil and other liquid fuels, is forecast to continue rising to 103.5 million barrels per day in 2030 (consumption this year is estimated to be just over 90 million bpd according to the latest International Energy Agency projection). But at just 0.8% per year between 2010 and 2030, oil is set to have the slowest growth of any major energy source by some way.
Natural gas, with its lower carbon emissions and growing abundance in stable regions like the U.S., will continue to gain in popularity. While in 2010 it accounted for 24% of global energy consumption, compared with oil’s 34%, come 2030 the two are forecast to be almost neck and neck. Gas should have 26% of the pie by then, with oil at 28%.
But the perhaps surprising winner over the next decade is coal. In fact, BP sees coal briefly overtaking oil in terms of its share of the world’s energy mix in 2020. Coal’s last hurrah — its share of the market levels off abruptly after 2020 — comes courtesy of Asia, where China and India continue to rely on it to fuel their economic development. For China, coal exacerbates its pollution problems, but domestic reserves and coal’s cheap cost make it hard to resist in the short term.
All of which is good news for BHP, which mines coal, produces oil and has a growing presence in natural gas after last year’s Petrohawk Energy acquisition. In recent years, we’ve seen French oil major Total talk about diversifying into nuclear power and even Exxon putting money into algae for biofuels. As the global energy mix shifts, the BHP model of backing several different horses looks increasingly astute.
Do you attribute that to the Welch to Immelt transition, or to changed market environment?
I might get my chance to buy back into NVS below 56 after all. Maybe after a wait to see how this plays out.
Granted, but after how long a delay?
The decision should incent the Cangov to try to ride over the First Nations (what a euphemism) and other B.C. luddites to put a priority on the Kitimat route. Unfortunately there are a lot of luddites in B.C.
From Merrill, re PFE
Note: Hospira (HSP) is being added to the US 1 list as of January 17. Pfizer (PFE) is being removed from the US 1 list as part of a rebalancing but continues to be rated a BUY.
An al-Qaeda torpedo! Brilliant!
No, you're absolutely right - pin yin is a transliteration only - there are no newspapers or the like in pin yin. It's not a useful tool of communication, as far as I know.
Pin Yin is absolutely daft in its aberrant transpositions of Latin alphabet sounds. They should have stuck with Gwoyeu Romatzyh, except that G.R. was the system adopted by the Nationalists. I'd be interested to know the history behind the adoption of Pin Yin.
pin yin?
Agree totally. I was just trimming sails to prevailing winds, not making a judgment of longterm NVS attractiveness.
The only other large pharma I own is ABT. I also own AMGN, which started off as a trade over a month ago but now has snuggled up and is making itself at home.
RoundTable 2011 avg -5.%
Me 2011 avg -4.5%.
I beat the pros!
I was looking at that range, but it never got below 55. For next week, I'd like to see the S&P storm blow over - which I think it will. Investment committees are probably meeting right now to relax the AAA only straitjackets. What are they going to buy - more U.S. Treasuries? A few more Bunds may get sold, I suppose.
I was spooked by the manufacturing problems, even though they had been accepted with relative equanimity, on the theory that what starts bad often ends worse. I intend to get back in next week after the S&P opera buffa gets absorbed.
I was very lucky - sold on Tuesday at 56.86 and resisted temptation to go back in yesterday.
I think dwelling on such "possibilities???", though soothing,
is one of the reasons why a lot of potential contributors are disinclined to take this board seriously.
Yes.
Given the typical wide spread on options' bid/ask, trading is a mug's game. Positioning has its uses, especially when selling volatility, at times of high volatility.
Thank you for a post, finally, that is on the topic of ARIA's scientific prospects.
I think he was being sarcastic.
EXEL has had more terminated partnerships than any biotech company I can think of.
At 15MM a pop, it's not a bad business model.
You are right. Like I said - my experience of them dates back to the stone age.
the reality is that the burden of proof is overwhelmingly on the bull.
It doesn't work that way in real life.
The reality is that reasonable optimism (bullishness) morphs into cultism. A poster on another board commented the other day that he hoped that the subject company's success would not lead to an influx of cultists. I made the observation, without mentioning any names, that there were already posters on the board who could be described as cultists – my country right or wrong. I thought that was pretty innocuous, but the post was promptly deleted by the moderator – ironic, because the deletion seemed to me to be a good example of cultism itself – demurrals are sacrilege. Also ironic because the subject company happens to be one of my biggest positions.
That worries me because I've found over the years that there is quite a good correlation between the degree of enthusiasm on a board and my investment losses.