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Wildman,
nice thoughts. Things are indeed good! Wave has been laboring to push the boulder up the mountain for quite a few years. The weight of companies like MS, INTC, and HPQ over the past year have made the last leg a breeze. TPMs are here and the boulder is at the summit...teetering. Any movement and the boulder begins to roll down the other side. Thanks for the insight.
John
Greg S,
Who makes the parts of a car? Ford puts the pieces together, why don’t they manufacture the air bags or the windshield wipers or the head lights? Certainly they could get in the head light business, but they choose not to. Why doesn’t the company that makes the radio also make the head lights? Both are components in a car and it is the same business, no?
Certainly there could not be a new entry into the car business, could there? It is a very mature business with some heavy hitting companies and any new developments from your perspective would be derived by an existing player or bought out. How did XM radio roll out? Why didn’t Ford buy them out? Why not GE? Why not GM? Why didn’t Ford develop the idea or GE?
Silly thinking.
Rachelise,
excactly. Most companies focus on their core competencies.
Ramsey, thanks for the good work!!!
Rachelise,
I don't count on crazy multiples, but if we don't see it, it will mean Wave is unable to demonstrate the real growth potential of the market they will be selling into.
djtherex,
yes, it's great for the Cost Rican economy.
Rachelise,
do you really think Wave will only have a PE of 20 once we actual get some E? I find it highly unlikely. Growth companies are priced base on future expected earnings, not current year earnings. If Joe investor and the street can see that that the growth of E will be explosive or at least impressive, I can guarantee you we will have PE for many years that is north of 20.
John
Magdelina,
give me a break. Micael USA's "vessel" as you call it, is full of shenanigans.
Michael USA, I think it's time to take the meds. You have earned the ignore. Your posting history speaks for itself. Your story is silly and so are you. Please do not clutter the boards with your garbage. A nut giving advice...literally priceless.
Posted by: michael usa
In reply to: None Date:9/15/2003 10:48:23 PM
Post #of 13945
Wave's Price action will be FRENZIED if decent revenues start to come in soon.
The revenues are the true validation of the tech.
Most here appear to be tech types and are used to logical analysis but stock market action for a speculative investments is not logical.
When revenues come in the action will be wild and whooly and will look like a moon- shot with periods of kami kaze- like profit taking and again more moon shots.
The market is all anticipatory and for stocks like this it can go to crazy extremes because everybody will start to pile on and take it to the bubble stage. Valuations will not matter if there is even a glimmer of hope that Wave will be one of new winners in tech.
I've been speculating in stocks for 20 years and this looks like a gambler's stock to me and my kind of stock and IF the tech is what it's supposed to be we are in for Tulipmania in Wave shares in near future. This looks like it's ripe to surge big time.
Minimum valuation if this tech is deployed widely? $15 Billion
IMHO we'll see $300/ share if deployment is rapid . I agree with another poster that the market cap has to be AT LEAST 4-5 times that of Verisign. After all what's Verisign got that is so earth shattering? It's only another software company.
I bought another 10,000 Shares base on my speculative sense.
Let the ponies race.
Good luck to all.
Bull_Dolphin,
we were all nuts for being invested in this company in the first place. However, all great ideas are pushed and pursued by people who have an infection and a vision to solve problems with little regard for the barriers that lie in the way. A few major barriers have been removed from Wave's path to success. The industry is pushing a more secure pc and Wave has been clearly recognized in the early emergence of this market.
Doma,
based on dialogue I have had with the co., this is not something that is being pursued.
Enough,
you ask how long the risk will last? Infinitely. However, conceptually the hope is that there will be less risk of failure (which implies higher price) as more is made obvious to the investing public. I don't think anyone here can tell you when you will stop pulling your hair out as it implies we know your tolerance for risk and the Wave's ability to capture market share in an emerging market.
I personally have concluded that trusted computing (TPM, secure OS, secure processor)is a forgone conclusion. However, I do not know how well the TPM only market develops pre-NGSCB and how much business Wave can capture in a pre and post NGSB world. I have been told that the TPM only market will be more than a niche, but seeing is believing. I am also very confident Wave has offerings that put it in a very enviable position as real estate in this market is being divided.
As soon as we are able to answer these questions we will be many multiples of our current share price or we will be two bits. That is not the answer you want to hear but that is the reality of the situation. Wave has enormous upside and most are here, including me, to see that potential realized as this market develops.
Effectively securing the pc has entailed an industry movement and we all know industry solutions can not move as fast as independent company solutions. Industry solutions require democratic process to move things forward and that has been the hallmark of what we have seen happen with the timing of this market. Thankfully, the main drivers of the pc industry MS and INTC have bought into the need to secure the pc in a big way. I believe that was a major proof of concept for Wave as Wave has been advocating the need for hardware security for quite some time.
How long will the risk last? It will last until you sell your stock. Whether that is at .25 or 500 will depend on how well the execs at Wave have been and will be at positioning our solution.
John
Wildman, exactly eom.
Re: buyout,
unless something has changed dramitically, Wave will not be bought out in the near term.
Rachelise,
what I know
Trusted computing WILL happen
Every pc will have hardware security in a few years; Microsoft’s commitment to NGSCB will ensure this
The TCG is pushing the TPM market in advance of NGSCB
I assumed the TPM only (pre-NGSCB) market would be a niche market, I have been told otherwise
Hardware security is getting lots of press
Wave has vast intellectual capital in what has been labeled by Microsoft as “the next big thing”
It’s good to have your core competency in what MS is labeling as the next big thing
What I feel
Wave’s relationships with Intel runs deeper than what we’ve seen
We will be hearing more about AMD and Wave in the future
Wave will have some direct connections to Microsoft and NGSCB
There should be three factors, two direct and one indirect that should drive our price upwards
direct: contracts demonstrating Wave’s connection to hardware security
direct: sales and licensing contracts
indirect: mounting evidence that hardware security is inevitable
Wave will be at many multiples of our current price in a few years
A few more snippets:
Today’s PC Platform is vulnerable to attack and this limits how PCs are used
Improving the trustworthiness of PCs must address key areas of concern
Privacy
Security
Third Party Trust
A more trustworthy PC is a better PC
Protecting privacy
Privacy is not possible without adequate security
Security needs and Privacy needs are often in tension
AMD is committed to protecting privacy as we evolve the PC
Platform extensions incorporate strong privacy protections
Increasing security
Increased Security is the foundation of a more trustworthy PC
PCs must evolve to protect the integrity of key Software Components
PC’s must better resist viruses, worms, Trojan horses, and other attacks
Hardware is needed, software alone can not meet this challenge
Third party trust
PCs must protect ownership rights
PCs can only achieve maximum potential with Third Party Trust
The vision of the PC as the gateway to digital content demands this change
Rights protection enables all forms of commerce
A PC that can protect rights can expand the market for PCs, enable new transaction models, and drive new applications
TPM
Personalized during manufacturing
Platform unique credentials
Platform unique Keys
Certificates, etc. to link to TSPs
Serves as the root of trust for the platform
Participates in the Secure Initialization
Stores Security Configuration State
Implements the protocols for privacy
TPM
Implements the local policy for privacy protection
Enable/Disable use of Platform data
Interacts with Authorized recipients of platform data
Security Kernel
Remote TSP’s
Other local policy settings
Delegate local policy control to Security Kernel
TPM
Holds the root key for sealed storage
Performs the SEAL operation to bind data to the current platform security configuration state
Performs the UNSEAL operation
Compares stored state to current state
Unseals only on a match
Supports Miscellaneous Functions
RNG
Awk, RE AMD's LaGrande equivalent,
I believe it's called SEM. A few snippets from a Strongin presentation:
Addressing the problems of Privacy, Security and Third Party Trust requires changing the PC
Changes to both hardware and the OS are needed
AMD has collaborated with Microsoft to evolve the PC platform
The results of this collaboration
AMD’s Secure Execution Mode (SEM) Platform (hardware)
Microsoft’s NGSCB (OS)
Goals of the effort
Raise the bar for PCs by addressing the trust related issues
Minimize the system cost impact
Preserve the billions of dollars in investment made by IHVs and ISVs
Provide strong privacy protections while increasing security
Enable new uses for the PC and new revenue streams for OEMs
Threat model
GOAL: Maximum value at lowest cost
Protect against all software attacks
Protect against “low cost” or “easy” hardware attacks
Protect against attacks using readily available plug-in devices
A particular certification level is not targeted
AMD SEM Architecture
4 New Platform Capabilities
Protected Execution Space
Storage Sealing
Secure Initialization
Remote Attestation
Microprocessor changes
Core Architecture
Establishes the Memory Partition
Secure initialization
Solves the “chicken and egg” problem
Miscellaneous Features
Addresses attacks
Remote Attestation
“How can a remote party verify that I have a trustworthy system?”
Spoof-proof solutions are complex
Our solution depends on platform unique credentials and cryptography
Unique credentials pose a privacy risk
Secure protocols to share credentials are needed
Key Principles
Platform owner is always in control – decides
If platform identity is enabled
Who is allowed to receive identity
Owner may or may not authorize proxy
Indirect Attestation via Trust Service Providers (TSP)
A call to action
A stand-alone PC is good but limited
A networked PC is much more useful
The same is true for trustworthy PCs
The industry needs to develop the Open Trust Infrastructure to
Provide “low-friction”Trust Services
Provide superior privacy protections
Provide tools for content distribution and e-commerce to trustworthy end-points
TPM Vendors
Get started now on designs for various markets – think about value add
Chipset Vendors
Incorporate support for trustworthy computing into components ASAP
OEMs
Develop your strategy for deployment
Commerce relationships can make trustworthy PCs into revenue generators
Weets,
the heart is not a bad place to be for "the next big thing".
John
Barge, I concur, but for now the pc market is massive in itself.
John
The perfect storm...
Intel says Lagrande will ship with every pc within a couple of years
AMD says:
Today’s PC Platform is vulnerable to attack and this limits how PCs are used. Improving the trustworthiness of PCs must address key areas of concern: Privacy,Security, Third Party Trust
A more trustworthy PC is a better PC
Microsoft says:
"This is the Next Big Thing
Windowing in the ‘80s
Networking in the ‘90s
Security in the ‘00s"
"Customers are demanding higher security and privacy
From end-users to enterprises
Governments are mandating as well"
I say:
Trusted pcs (TPM, Secure OS, Secure Processor) are going to touch every pc in the market place in the next few years; a market that Wave helped emerge for the abyss. The day to day price does not matter right now...the perfect storm is brewing.
Bluefang, I do not disagree with much of what you say. With regard to business blunders, cash and a great concept do not always lead to success. Wave was trying to find something that would stick a few years back. Thankfully, management had the will to evolve their idea to something that has nice, big white teeth.
Bluefang,
SKS was pitching wheels to people who had horses a few years ago. Wave had a great concept, but the industry was not ready for it. Well, the industry has been readying itself the past couple of years and Wave will now sell to a market that will be enabled. Along with that, SKS needs to speak a little more carefully around our place in that market as we are transitioning from concept to form.
Alea, from your post,
Alea: “interesting theory. Consistent with the same set of facts is someone who either has nothing (hopefully not Wave) or who is uncertain how much he will have.”
Waveduke: Wave only knows what they thinkthey have. Likewise with investors. Nonetheless, Wave has been very quiet about the additional services and relationships they have. This seems consistent with a company that is trying to protect a lead in a developing market. Consistent with that, it seems silly for Wave to state that they think they will own a multi-billion dollar market for competitive reasons and for the very fact that we are just now introducing our product to market.
Alea: “Wave has a good opportunity. BUT SKS doesn't know how many units will deploy, when they will deploy, how quickly applications will emerge, how accepting corporate consumers will be of the technology, how many will activate Wave's services, how strongly Wave's partners will market the product, how quickly competition will emerge or exactly what form it will take, or what usage cost the market will bear.”
Waveduke: Exactly, that’s why we are at 3 dollars and change and not 25 cents or 30 dollars. As soon as those pieces are known with certainty, the market will no longer need to speculate.
Alea: “Let's look at his assessment of cash flow. Sometime in 2004 he hopes to break even. Currently, Wave's burn rate is around $4 million. Let's use a 50% margin and assume fixed costs remain the same. By these rough estimates, SKS is hopeful that by Q4, 2004, Wave is making revenues of $8 million or so per quarter.
If things go well, maybe that number happens sooner rather than later. But it is a somewhat modest goal given Wave's previous aspirations. And it certainly isn't the kind of prediction a man with gold bars in his pockets could make without being a little misleading.”
Waveduke: I don’t think Wave’s aspirations have changed, the timing of when those aspirations will bear fruit has. This is no longer Wave’s timeline alone, it is the timeline of the industry. Deployment begins in Q3 or Q4 and Wave will begin selling to an already installed base immediately. We will start to get a picture of how well Wave’s services are received in the near future. I am guessing Wave has a few more surprises in the hopper.
Alea: “In these circumstances - uncertainty and maybe a slightly less steep deployment curve than many hope - he may think it unwise to make predictions. Of course, there's a flip side to the uncertainty. Maybe things go much better than he is willing to vouch for currently. My guess, though, is that the fog hasn't quite lifted yet.”
Waveduke: When you figure it out, let us all know!!! Until we know more, Wave is probably fairly valued in the 3 to 4 range, IMO. When some of that fog lifts, we will break out one way or the other…how profound I am!!!
Have you guys ever heard of profit quietly? I would hope that SKS would not speak too much about the size of our opportunity in dollars as it seems silly to invite competition before we have revenue. You never want to alert potential competitors into a market that has substantial revenue upside. This is why companies sign NDA’s; they want to protect any lead that they have in bringing a product to market. It seems silly to make a proclamation that they think that they have a multi billion dollar idea before they have introduced our product to market. That’s the equivalent of walking down the street of a crime invested neighborhood with gold bars in hand while yelling I’m rich…it’s a only a good idea if you want to be robbed of your gold.
OT, can someone tell me how to ignore a poster?
Cassandra,
most of the people on this board are long term investors, not short term swing traders. Investors typically do not care about the day to day or minute to minute price movements.
CL,
I have to admit you ticked me off more than a few times when we were south of a buck, but it speaks volumes that you can admit your error. Welcome aboard.
John
I can finally post -- I forgot my logon at the office...what a fun day to watch the ticker. Congrats to all who have been hanging in there by a thread :)
John
Hi all,
just checking out the new/old board.