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Not quite a "run for the hills" call but do you think we have much higher from here?
Thanks. If we don't break 1426 would you favor 1515, 1619, or even higher as your "much higher" prices? It seems you believe this may happen close to January, correct?
Hi Zeev,
I remember yesterday you were "rooting" for a 3 week decline to 1220/1263 area but said we could float around 1426, max out at 1619 in January, and then see a large decline.
Seems you think we rally a bit here in the Turkey week but not sure what happens next.
After today's action are you leaning any particular way or do you have any updates?
I'm in cash and thinking about building some short positions.
Thanks, as always.
Zeev, weren't you thinking .94 for BtB? Are you measuring the same items as these guys are are there differences in the data?
Thanks.
Zeev, mlsoft, what do you think of this? Back to cash right now.
After the close on Thursday, SEMI will release its North American equipment book-to-bill for the month of October. I expect it to be another month where we will see the book-to-bill under 1.0 and down from September's level of 0.84. I just want to remind everyone that this data, while helpful
from an industry perspective, is a lagging indicator and really tells us nothing new. It's a three month rolling average and this data will have the three months that have seen steady declines (so it will not be good). The reason I bring it up is that people still trade off of this. The group has had a nice run recently and negative data may be an opportunity for profit taking.
Any thoughts on Philly Fed. Number looked better than expected but market isn't running?
Zeev, do you follow KBH? I'm short from around 50 and getting ready to cover on the heels of the lower than expected housing numbers. Would you ride it some more and set a stop?
Thanks.
I know dude. I thought you were mistaking prescient for omniscient and never correlated divine with the word. "Helluva good foresight" was my intention with no relation to religion. No big deal either way.
Nice work Matt. This is the first time I've seen someone suspended by you guys and I can only imagine what he has done in the past to deserve that privilege. In only two days, this fool managed to take up tons of bandwidth. I was guilty of fencing with him so guess I somewhat added to the problem so apologies to all for that. LG has a pretty good thread that I've checked out from time to time. Amazing he puts up with Chafe?
Chafe (I hope you like your new nickname), let's make it 35,000 posts since the next time we have to wade through your gibberish. Best of luck on your next adventure.
Chafe, you ever wonder why so many "dorks like me" are agitated by you?
Chafe, between yesterday and today you clutter this board with over 30 posts full of blowhard gibberish about VLNC and other impossible to understand rhetoric which you are clueless about save some Pebble Beach lunch you supposedly had with "the billionairre and his wife."
Unless you can put up a reasonable set of thoughts as to why you are relentlessly pumping this stock, you may want to take your ball and go home or go harass some other thread.
Perhaps finding a nice comfortable place (other than here) to laugh your ass off would suit you fine, huh?
Who said divine? Prescient was quite appropo for that call.
Zeev, I have one word for this call - prescient.
If you don't know what it means, ask da_cheif.
It was starting to feel like I was the only short left on this board. And that's a good feeling.
Did you really cover all your shorts and go long KLAC and others?
I think there are a fair amount of remodeling / home improvement projects going on instead of buying new homes. The lower rates have spurred a bunch of low interest home equity loans and I don't think too many people are "moving up" to new homes. Hence the new home builders get hurt but the home improvement shops like Lowes can do OK for a little while.
In a way, like cars, everyone who can afford to buy a new home already did and this bubble should deflate very soon IMHO.
Looks like they just put another $7.25B in for a net drain of $4.25B today.
You're a genius.
You're beginning to wonder?????
You think one of his "hot shot" lunch buddies may be covering his stock losses in exchange for pushing another POS stock?
i bett theers a goot probbibillitti o dat
Yes, I believe he qualifies as "the most annoying" on this site. Hopefully his infrequent appearances will be just that. Absolute gibberish with "less than zero" added value. A waste of time to try and engage him in any type of discussion that takes real thought. At least The Realist is somewhat comical at times.
Zeev, seems we've run almost 30% up from the early October lows. What is your best guess on a 1280 or 1222 time frame from here and do you think we can or will pierce 1426 again before we come back down? I believe last year's bear market rally actually went up 40% or so from the lows which if we matched it now we would see maybe another 100 NAS points up.
By the way, thanks for the "those who like to play the darkside recommendations." Whoever says you don't share with equals and opposites really isn't seeing the whole picture.
Thanks.
Yeah, looks like he was running right for a bit and got scared when he saw the gang coming...
How's that rabbit running?
Thanks. INTU down big and AMAT up? Strange world.
Just about 1:30 Zeev. Do you still suspect your early dump or is Mosis not done with lunch yet?
A DELL negative surprise would certainly spook this market. DELL is ALWAYS expected to overdeliver come earnings time and the first time they don't will be trouble.
Nice trades today by the way. Yes, we still have some more correction coming soon before we see this nice new bull market (which I would like to see and be long when it happens).
I don't think AMAT news will be taken lightly for too long. This is VERY BAD NEWS and impacts the industry.
Also, being a slave to the futures is dangerous. They can be manipulated fairly easily between trading sessions just to lure in a few more unsuspecting J6Ps only to change rapidly during the day.
Maybe a small GAP and big CRAP tomorrow.
Also keep in mind $12B in repos expires tomorrow so let's see how much liquidity is put in the market tomorrow. It needs to be quite a bit.
This may weigh heavy on any kind of major increase tomorrow along with AMATs warning.
Yes, these semi's are going to get crushed as they should with their current PEs and declining growth. May not happen tomorrow but there is no way these lofty valuations will remain. Either the stock corrects or the fundamentals improve.
Carl, you can buy them online in your account. I have RYVNX now in my 401K and no broker is telling me to keep it at least 2 days. Find out why your broker is saying that because it sounds fishy.
AMAT should be up another 5 points or so this week if it reacts anything like KLAC did to their warning
On the other hand, maybe it's time for the SOX to take it's rightful place in history...
17:00 ET Applied Materials guides fiscal Q1 (Jan) below consensus (AMAT) 14.70 -0.37: -- Update -- On conference call, says it expects Q1 (Jan) revenues to be below Q4 levels by at least 20%, which equates to revenue of approx. $1.16 bln; current Multex consensus is $1.39 bln... says it expects to incur a small loss in fiscal Q1, which includes charge for headcount reduction; current consensus is profit of $0.07... separately, expects Q1orders to be roughly 20% below Q4 levels... AMAT -0.60 at 14.10..
Do you have an Augie type chart that shows these levels? Sorry if this was already sent in a previous post.
Thanks.
SOXX 225 would be a dream come true. Bring it on.
Very good point Molly. That portends much lower earnings rest of 2003 but still a little above the whole year consensus.
Anyone know why QCOM pulling back here. I haven't looked at the earnings in detail yet but at face value it looks like they beat everything and increased guidance. What is it that someone doesn't like?
Nice moves. I'm with you. Good luck.
How about last year when we rallied from 1426 to 2000 around this time only to fall back hard to 1100 less than a year later?
Flat to down 4% is warning JMKel. Consensus for next quarter was $4.9B. CSCO now says the range is $4.6 - $4.8B which are all less than $4.9B.
This combined with the one time charges cannot be taken positive and it is NEW NEWS, not something Chambers said last time.
All your posts indicate there is no way in your mind this market can go down. Be careful.
Hope you make money. Trailing stops will ensure that if you are already up on this rally. Best.