who said I had a driver?

You will note that I have taken a good several months or so off of posting until just a few days ago. That is specifically because I am not up-to-speed on JBI. ALso, there has been no news for months.

Regardless, I am not here to get people to listen to me. That is up to them. You don't have to heed my opinions at all.

well... it has some value and better or not that is what I felt like doing.

well, mainly because they only had 300k in the bank in cash last time I looked and their burn rate is 1M/quarter. I see nothing that they could reasonably get a bank loan with, much less investors willing to settle for 6%.

Your list of accomplishments is impressive, but not consistent with my expectations of a project such as this. I would have expected them to be "on-stream" with this in 4-5 months, including Procurement, with a full 3-processor facility in NY, fully permitted.

Based on that, they might have a chance, if their profitability and Cost numbers were accurate.

It was just a casual jaunt with no real purpose. I did not want to make an appointment because I was not interested in whatever information woud be purposely passed to me. I was more interested in whatever I could learn on my own, and it so happened that I did not make it to the NY site until late in the day... that is just the way it worked out.

It just came up because I am relatively close and had time on my hands. Besides, I enjoy the Niagara area.

NO... Investing is all probabilities. I am just looking at it and coming up with a number off of the top of my head. Nothing is certain.

For the individual investor, one way of dealing with this is to use a Decision Tree. Look it up. It is a mathematical statistical method of allocating capital for the best possible outcome based on such probabilities.

I feel JBI is a great risk right now, and could find much better opportunities at similar or less Risk levels.

then why isn't he selling now? If he is, great. Let's end the discussion there and wait and see. If there is some list of reasons why he is not selling, then he should be

- selling to refineries, or
- reading tapes... or

to be acting in the best interests of shareholders.

I still have not listened to the CC, so if there are valid reasons great. I would not know them. If those reasons have something to do with the blending plant... he is wasting time.

I am just clarifying. There seems to be some confusion.

well they need him that is for certain, but....

Why don't they just sell some fuel to refineries for WTI-3???? If I were an investor that would bother me alot. THey should not NEED COlin, the blending plant, or anybody.

I think that your post is very inaccurate and ignores the realities of Procurement Processes in major corporations, that is what is difficult for YOU to understand. I do intend at some point to post the list of Vendor Selection criteria from the PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) at some point to attempt to bring you into reality.

I do not doubt that JBI produces fuel that runs in a lawnmower, would run in a car, and could be used for a number of heating applications. Their ability to market their product is another matter and infinitely more complicated that you would make it out to be.

It is an entirely different matter putting fuel into a $50000 Mercedes than a lawnmower. I think the average car owner is super-sensitive to the quality of the fuel they put in their automobile. Lawnmower videos just don't cut it.

Besides, if my statement was vague and I am not a lawnmower expert, why worry about it?

what about it?

Isn't he referring to this:

http://viewer.zoho.com/docs/ybfccH

they will likely stay in double digits, you are correct. That is, a fraction of a dollar. The current slide will likely continue.

At some point their financial problems will likely force some kind of decision or exit strategy, where it will collapse. I think that likelihood is maybe 90%.

investors were told that the output from the P2O could be sold for WTI-3. Now we seem to be fixated with the blending site. Prior to this it was the tape business.

Did it ever occur to you that in order for JBI to sell their product to a major retail chain they need a certain financial stability?

The tape business would have provided that. Sales to refineries would provide that.

I was going to publish the list of Procurement criteria from my PMBOK... that would enlighten people here. Financial stability is one of those criteria.

none of those things...

I have found that the best way is to select stocks using financial criteria and stock screeners... diversify.. and to focus on the business concept or idea after having done the above... it is pretty safe.

I can't imagine what would make me invest in JBI. When in doubt, give it time.

I would put it this way:

"So what you're telling me is you have good Project Management experience in industrial construction of process manufacturing infrastructure and therefore am qualified to tell JBII how they should execute on their business plan....question the wisdom of buying that blending site and it's your opinion it was a mistake trying to launch P2O without all the permits they would ever need, wasting valuable time and causing the DEC to have to go ahead and start running and work on the permits later? "

You were close.

no, not really. JB used to blow up snowbanks with stuff from Shoppers Drug Mart in Thorold as well. Equally nto impressed.

well it is jus tmy observation that in order to MAKE MONEY, JBI is somehow tied to the blending plant now. Further, it seems that they are not guaranteed of a certain price, it seems as if it is now up to WHO YOU KNOW jUst a general impression. I have not read every post, but if I were an investor I would not want to be reliant on WHO the people running the blending plant KNOW... just IMO

lots of things will run in a lawnmower. That test means squat. What a joke.

My "points" come from having worked on similar projects with well-constructed plans. Something like this would take about 4-5 months and there would be no issues with permitting.

Simple truth is that there are lots of claims around about great technology. It is hard to know what to believe or even to extrapolate profitability.

JBI's ability to manage is more important than the catalyst.

the fact that the output from the P2O machine can power a lawnmower makes absolutely no impression on me. In fact, I think it is embarassing for JBI.

JBI is a fascinating company. i have no shares at present because I consider them to be extremely risky from a financial standpoint right now.

Possibly. From an outsider's viewpoint, one would have to doubt that though. Isn't it more important to get things like that right than to have some secret catalyst?

If I were an investor I would want to see a good plan before some magic catalyst, no matter how good a lab report is. Execution in the field is far more important.

No matter how good something like the catalyst is, one has to extrapolate the benefits to production in order for it to have any value.

Oil/ Fuel = Semantics. Fuel is the better word for what JBI does because it is more vague, could mean anything. Hence that change in terminology was not a game changer, but a convenient generalization. The blending site was never necessary, now it seems like it is the heart of the company. Not what investors were told at all.

So why would it be a problem for me to introduce myself to JB? I don't see a problem with that.

I think that they run out to early next year... yes they are realistic... sure. What I am curious about is what restrictions the Consent Order has placed on JBI in terms of what kind of feedstock they can use, what kind of storage they can use for the feedstock, any restrictions on throughput, that kind of thing. In my reading the Consent Order I did not get that.

Likely that is understood by both parties and the documents should be doable. Only issues could be unforeseen things that come up.

The general word for things that come up once construction starts is "Discovery".

Where I have worked does have a bearing there Sir because the processes are basically the same everywhere regardless of the industry.

JBI got the go-ahead.... in other words the DEC bent over backwards to allow them to produce, good for the DEC. GO JBII. But it does not represent good planning on JBI;s part.

Permits be dammed??? That is exactly the kind of attitude that gets companies like JBI in trouble. They thought all they needed was an Air Permit and they were wrong, dead wrong... lucky they are being allowed to operate.

It seems as if production is now somehow dependent on the blending site. This was not the picture given to investors a year ago. At that time, the blending site was not in the picture at all.

There is no real reason to depend on the blending site. The P2O plant could/ should be in full production now IMO.

Mile-stone schedule is exactly the phrase to describe it. I read the Consent Order and there are a series of dates by which to provide various documents, namely a SWP and some kind of EA.

I deal with schedules all the time... that is exactly what it is.

Well, JBI is a fairly large factory. The SWP Permit is not just for the output from the process, it is for the storage of feedstock. That kind of planning could have been done before they built squat. Ditto for any kind of EA-type document. I believe those are the two things that the DEC have found lacking and which they must complete according to a mile-stone-driven schedule. Neither one of those things are dependent on having anything built.

You are correct about the Air Permit.

best post I have seen in awhile there PKG.

and still nowhere near making any money...

don't you realize that the fact that it meets some standard like that is only a small part of the challenges facing a small company like JBII???? do you even know what the challenges are? I have talked with purchasing people in other industries, that is why I don't simplify it. I may not know Oil, but I don't simplify. You appear to be looking at it simply mathematically... it is anything but.

actually, I think the opposite about the following:

" the plastic it came from was initially oil"

That is not a selling point, IMO. Anything that does not come from the virgin material may not have all of the necessary or desireable ingredients that the product made from the virgin material does. And there is nothing more personal than what people put in their automobiles.

I would have to do considerable research, and then talk to some purchasers and procurement people at Canadian Tire before I agreed with you.

Actually, I believe the head office for Canadian Tire is at Yonge/ Eglinton in Toronto. So maybe I should make an appointment with them in the New Year and ask... sounds interesting.

Canadian Tire is similar to Pep Boys... and there are others in the US. It has been awhile since I was down there, so I can't remember them. In fact, the target market is identical. We refer to it affectionately as Crappy Tire because although it is the only place to go for auto parts, their service is Crappy. They are a low value player..

And they all have gas stations yes.

However, I find it hard to believe that they would sell JBII fuel to put in people's automobiles. Going to Canadian Tire for gas is no different than going to Shell or Sunoco or anywhere else. I don't believe they are "independent" and can sell just anything.

all I am saying is that prior to asking for the truth I should at least be up on the latest BS.

thanks, but I don't think that that document discusses the operational restrictions in terms of the types of plastic they can process and the storage/ handling requirements.

I will come back to it.

I will read the Consent Order, I understand there are restrictions....

and the CC... I understand there is no commercial production for a few months more... and a whole list of excuses.

should make for interesting reading.

How come they are not selling NOW? They certainly need the money.

well, they can't unless they have a Solid Waste permit, which is exactly what has transpired here. What is going on is a work-around for JBI's benefit.

Glad we agree on something.

well, a governing body like the DEC would not care about that aspect. All they care about is that the process does not pollute or harm the environment. They don't even care if companies are profitable in doing that. It is not their concern.

I have not researched the restrictions placed upon them by the Consent Order. If someone provides a link I can read up on it.