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Thanks Good day
That would have taken me awhile to find..
drv..
i will research where I heard the good Dr. let go of Dual Therapy and try to track down specific..
It is a pain in the arse..
Thanks for posting the good Dr TWST interview..
He says they are dropping Dual Therapy as a target.. he doesn't mention Monotherapy.. I am pretty sure it was Street interview..
Hmm. Maybe with Ariana providing data analysis?
drv..
I remember early in theBiogen Trials biogen researchers showing
Brain Scans of lessening Plaque..and that was why everyone got so excited..
$30 BILLION worth of excitement..
Then they started actually talking to the patients who simply were not getting any better..See Piano Player, Artist, Golfer, Shopper, et al...
WOnder if the good Dr thought to do brain scans as well at the beginning?
Again..the good Dr. threw everything Anavex had to make A2-73 Fail quickly..It is good that the good Dr failed at this task!
Agoodday..
It's your lucky day because as you read posts, you actually read them.
No it has not been written or posted officially that Anavex has dropped Dual Therapy. How would I know such a thing then? Dr. Missling in one of the latest two Audio Recorded Interviews mentions Dual Therapy no longer being a target, or that Dual Therapy shows no advantage over Monotherapy.
the Gist of his point was ..the Company is no longer targeting DualTherapy as target Stratum. Why not? I have made multiple posts on the matter and no one has responded with a reasonable alternative-IMO- to my hypothesis that the reason Dual Therapy was dropped is that MONOTHERAPY results are definitive..PERIOD. 27 Patients and all! Regardless of how the company got to this definitve MonoTherapy Data..IMO three ways..and maybe all three played a part:
No.1 : The Mono Magnificent 7 kept the MMSE 25(A normal healthy human being score starts at 24! and the Dual Therapy kept trending down to below 17.
I don't think this is enough evidence to DROP Dual Therapy..Do you? After 6 month Data, MonoTherapy Targeting and 41 Week announcement the Doubters of A2-73 should be the patients..if you know what I mean..but hey..let's not get personal..
No.2: Patients have changed from Dual Therapy to Monotherapy..during an adaptive Trial..Dr.'s and Patients may ADAPT..Hello..AND the New Mono Therapy Patients are on the Rising MMSE chart as well..So..
I think this is a 50/50 Chance that this happened before 12 Month was completed..
No. 3: The Continuing data from Trial Participants doing MonoTherapy: Likely more than 7 after 1 year: (90% Chance of this number being greater than 7 -IMO)..The incoming Data available for these Monotherapy Patients AFTER Year 1 Data ..as some are now on Year 3..Must be Convincing..
My point to everyone is ..what does it matter ..whether it's No.1, No. 2 or No.3 or ALL THREE..Monotherapy works..To interpret the recent announcements and interviews in any other way..is denying reality.
To think that anyone on this board will be able to better interpret MonoTherapy Results than the good Dr. by looking at a graph..well..
Good Luck..
Long Term, the minute the good Dr said ANAVEX was dropping Dual Therapy as a Target ..you should have been long. Speculate on why they dropped Dual Therapy..Listent to the Street Interview..I think that is where he says it..Quite extraoridnary..There are benefits to being on an Investor Board..
how long do you think it will take biogen to run their test? think they already have data? how about MJFF and Parkinsons..think they already have data? what about Rett Syndrome..think they already have data?..
they all already have the data..
one week til we get to see it too..not all of it..
The only data I hope to see..it WHY anavex dropped Dual Therapy as a target....
and now only targets Monotherapy A2-73..wonder if that MMSE chart stopped at 25 or if it just kept going up or sideways..kinda like life..
hmm..
They tried to make A2-73 Fail! They are the opposite of hucksters. They assumed A2-73 would not work and designed a trial to make it fail quickly and cheaply. Period. The other Drugs for Alzheimer's NEVER showed this much EFFICACY no matter how many patients involved in ANY phase..
Interpret that! They have two years accumulating patient data.. They say it stops regression..
Why would you doubt them?
They are not crooked thieves and you and no one on this Board has their expertise nor their availability at Data.
So yeah I want to see a pretty chart..
But what really matters is what Dr MacFarlane said .. the charts are nice but when we can make a real difference in people s lives that's what counts.
Go visit a dementia ward, then tell me 7 out of 30 not regressing for 9 months is meaningless.
The ONLY reason to drop dual therapy is Monotherapy is better..
better than what?
Better than SOC..
more than Lilly can say 8 Billion dollars later,,,
More than Biogen can say 30 Billion dollars later..
And here Anavex sits saying and showing more than Lilly and Biogen combined at $130 Million TOTAL..with a pipeline!
Watch what happens if they switched Dual Therapy Patients to Monotherapy .. we will see how meaningless n=27 is..
You won't need any interpretation from Fuerstein or Frrol then..
Keep the price low through Thursday.. lets see what we get..
I say we get data strong enough to drop Dual Therapy as a target..
Any doubters?
Agreed. We are in Poll position heading into CTAD..
They have the data.. A2-73 works..
Again. The undeniable data to even very small people would be the switch from dual to mono and a positive reaction to that switch datafied in graphs..
Oh my.
A lot of kitchen sinks will be in the stock at that point..
Frrol?
We will never see the same data as Dr.s as they have Data two years out.. it's open. So when they prepare for Phase 3 it's because the Doctors see the data as SOC it's hard to believe you think you will be able to do anything or know anything more than the Doctors.. but hey. You give it a shot.
Also ,, the 52 week data is in the title of the presentation and it's the end of Phase 2a..
So good luck with your 52 week data wish.. I can already tell you it's coming true.
I hope you read data charts better than you read the Title of a Presentation!
That would be brilliant.
I think you should go 100% conservative !
Maybe longer than most may afford to wait,.. we shall see..
What's baking here?
Yeah a treatment for alzheimers Parkinson's that actually works
And we are gonna develop it for another 10years!...
haha
Is someone hoping for a downturn in price?
Didn't 21 st Centurt Act just pass?
Didn't the good Dr just say in his last press release that he is trying to get A2-73 to market quickly?
If you took a medication that brought cells in all major organs into homeostasis. When would you start taking it and why in the world you ever stop?
Think of Alzheimer's like Cancer..
If you stop Cancer from growing, getting worse, IF you didn't wait too long, then you've won. If the cancer is a tumor(plaque) remove it , but first you must stop the cancer from getting worse.
RFS!
Homeostasis
AGAIN..
We are looking at 100% Failure in Past Alzheimer Drugs..
Read END of 41 WEEK "RFS" Anavex Announcemnt..
THEY ARE NOT GOING TO KEEP SUFFERERS FROM THIS DRUG..
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
Again everyone, please understand, that 99% of Alzheimer drugs have failed. They didn't fail because of Phase 3 they failed because the Drug Companies are so desparate, that even though no one is getting better in Phase 2 (just getting worse "slower" they could make it work in Phase 3.
Well guess what "0" get better in Phase 2 or Phase 3 because their MOA simply does not work to stop INFLAMMATION..because their drugs..
NONE OF THEM..restores HOMEOSTASIS..so EVERY DRUG WILL FAIL that first does not RESTORE HOMEOSTASIS..
SO when an AF says 31 people don't matter..LOOK at this from his perspective..There has NEVER been a drug measuring "Regression Free Survival" ONLY drugs measuring LESS FAILURE. EVEN the number one drug EVER for Alzheimers, donezipil/Aricept MEASURES the lessening degree and elongation of time of Regression..
NEVER REGRESSION FREE..THERE HAS NEVER BEEN SUCH A BEAUTIFUL DRUG!
so..in this environment steps Eli Lilly Loving Adam Fuerstein..Who is shooting fish in a barrel with "get rich quick" invsetors who buy Anavex thinking people like Adam Fuerstein and the Short Cabal of Market Makers don't exist..but THEY DO..see Federal Prosecutors for their history!
!
My point is, and I am sorry it took so long to get here..
ONE..and I mean ONE Mild to Moderate Alzheimer sufferer that
know Regression Free Survival for 9 months and has positive side effects is a better result than ANY DRUG EVER..so 7 is UNBELIEVABLE..
and 7 out of 27 is UNBELIEVABLE..
but that those 7 ALL were MONOTHERAPY is well..HISTORICAL..
and with the 41 week announcement by the good Dr..
We reach MONUMENTAL next week...
Adam Fuerstein is lost in ALzheimer's Crushing Victories..
We are going to be found in it's glorious defeat!
it all begins with..our new favorite word..say it loud, say it proud:
HOMEOSTASIS
so..Consumer sentiment is good if it is bad..
Tops in the market are reached at high consumer sentiment..
Means anyone buying now has a great chance of doing extremely well
as not competing with so many buyers..better value for dollar.
Again do not buy Anavex to trade..buy it to own it for end of
Phase 3 Approval..should be 3 rd quarter 2017 ..the good Dr said he was
looking for a shorter pathway in the last 41 week announcement.
You are NOT overpaying for AVXL below $12 P/S IMO..
Do we not nuderstand YET that this is an OPEN trial! No data is hidden other than time it takes to process pharmacokinetics. HAM-D , Cogstate, Neuronetrix, Ariana, EEG, for over 2 years for some patients..
The question of the day..
Isn't whether or not the data will be good enough for SOC,,because that's all we need to be a Multi Billion Dollar enterprise.. the question in my mind is do we have enough data to convince more than one BP to in license A2-73?
I am already sold on Anavex will try to accumulate through 1st Billion in Market cap..but what would bring down the house in cheers would be if; a big IF: some dual therapy patients went Mono Therapy at 6 months and these patients responded like the other 7 Mono therapy patients..
I would like to think Ariana could bank that data for Anavex..
It's going to be a restless week..
But 9 month data should put all longs at rest.. long term we are strong..
very strong!
greed will kick in ..it always does..
it will override fear..
greed and anticipation..
drilling rig is set up..Major Formation below..
Positive Gas Flare Signs..
We know whether or not Anavex treats the most wicked disease of our generation..
in a week? and you think retail is gonna take a pass on giving it a play?..not bloody likely..not bloody likely at'all...
Longs,
with the two points of knowledge: 41 Week Phase 2a shows stability and Dual Therapy is no longer a target ..
All you are looking at now..
are the shadows..Dec 8th, 10, and 12th will be days of glorious celebration, not because it's only 27 people..but because it's at least 7 people celebrate another year of loving their families.
Forget about the action..it's the last swan song of destroyed doubters..
Flailing in Misery..the gnashing of teeth..
Who knows which major network will break the story first..
Will they wait? Maybe with the good Dr's PR Train in full gear..
he has already created the story with someone who agreed to wait until Dec. 10 to run it....
The last frantic moments before judgement is laid bare..
there was a TV show called "Joan of Arcadia" where our Creator would appear in various ways to the shows star "Joan" I always liked the show and the theory. In that regard, recently while meeting to give a client a check, she had me meet her at her Mom's care facility.
A dementia ward.
Can I just tell you, it was nice to be reminded how brutal this disease called Alzheimers is..it's nice to know when or lose..what an inspired battle to fight.
Let be victorious good Dr., but let us never stop fighting either way!
well, if you are going to live the rest of your life on center stage, might as well get started..
12/12 Anavex Day!
this post sounds familiar!
treden..do you see an expansion of the Mono Therapy group?
I think we do..it was a flexible trial..and I just can not imagine the
good Dr or Dr MacFarlane allowing any patient that wanted to ..to change to Moo Therapy..and since we all saw where Dual Therapy was going..
WHO would not have asked to change to Mono Therapy?
I think we are in for some surprises..
frrol..hopefully we are getting 52 week data? you mean hopefully it will show stability of cognitive functioning in patients through 52 weeks..Mono Therapy wise..and hopefully we have some data on patients that switched from Dual Therapy to Mono..
we will get the 52 week data..
Anavex tells Lilly you not good partner2 because of AD drug in trial. Lilly says watch this right before CTAD.. are we a good partner now Anavex?
Anavex has deep personnel ties to Lilly. Ariana has proved Monotherapy numbers that why good Dr dropped Dual. But IF you drop dual, don't you allow/encourage patients to go Mono?
I think we are in for a homeostasis day 12/12
Anavex Day
Anavex says.
A tremendous recap..
We can't get in the heads of the shorts, as what a sad place to be, the Sell AnaVex investment advisories.. well nice job by AF telling you to buy LLY would be surprised if the Fool was not far behind..
Not to list them, but at least one of Anavex's key employees has deep ties to LLY.
It is strange the timing upsof the PR and what you say makes sense regarding controlling the message.. but Think about this..
Anavex says
Could not agree with you more!
The data for Monotherapy is convincing!
Ok you hypothesize dual therapy numbers after 6 months change directions and go north..
I still don't agree with your
Supposition as the good Dr would not rule out dual therapy as a target under those circumstances..
I like the warning shot of your post jonjones but not the logic of the beginning.. IF dual therapy patients started doing better than DUAL therapy would still be a target!
Again.. What has caused Dual Therapy to no longer be a target when 2/3 of a small trial are dual therapy ?
How do you stop targeting Dual Therapy , come with a great PR
If 2/3 of your current data is derived from dual therapy?
I don't think the company released 41 week because they learned about Lilly's fail.. although timing was nice..
So no one is presenting an argument as to a different logic as to HOW 41 Week announcement is so positive?
Do you think they are lying and just putting lipstick on Monotherapy?
I must admit, if the 7 patients from mono therapy are what the pr at 41 weeks is describing ,, it's ok with me..
It would still represent 100% of Monotherapy patient being Regression Free at 9 months and 1 year and that still gets us to phase 3 and we are still the only drug to ever offer such tremendous hope to AD sufferers.. and I will still be long....
But I won't understand why the point of mentioning to us that Dual Therapy is no longer a target or doing a 41 week PR 2 weeks before Oral CTAD..
I have much faith in the good Dr
And the adaptive trial..
I think we have more than just the 7 mono therapy patients doing well...
nice post Biostock..
What is your hypothesis on how 41 Week PR is possible?
Why did Anavex PR 41 week?
If 41 week is a continuation of 6 month chart do you think 41 week PR is possible? I don't...not the way the dual therapy line was trending..
So what changes?
IMO. What changes is the Mono Therapy data takes off.. either the 7 Monotherapy patients data continues very successfully and/ or the number of mono therapy patients increased and those patients improved.
I believe more patients are doing Monotherapy and that is why dual therapy is no longer a target.
And when we see the data of the patients that changed.. the world is going to be rocked!
we must do what we are able to make this drug available.
we must speak for those who are no longer able to speak for themselves.
9 month no deterioration is SOC..we don't have to wait for 12 month..
let the battle begin now..with the 41 week announcement..
so..if a dramatically higher valuation is so obvious, than who in their right mind is selling at $.10 on the dollar?
Great Question Class, because even every uptick has a seller ..right?
Some selling is buy those who bought lower and take a profit.
Some selling is Year End..Still have option it you bought at $14 or $8 or $6..to take loss vs gains and buy back in early january..
Some selling is simply better things to do with $$$..
then there is the Active Seller..the blood luster..WHY is heshe
selling into 41 week data? can't he see we stopped Alzheimers?
Why is heshe betting against stopping this dreaded destroyer of life?
Because, it's a free country, the heshe is not a very positive thinking person and all they care about is $$$(but so are some buy low traders)
but what these sellers are banking on, is a 99% FAIL Rate for stopping Alzheimers..They are banking on FEAR ..on DEATH ..on FAILURE..
They have history on their side..Alzheimers has NEVER FAILED THEM!
and who is Anavex to defeat Alzheimers? It's only 32(27) people ..
you can't tell anything...they are preparing for the POST CTAD SMEAR CAMPAIGN..and probably they have some Market Makers on Board..
The battle today is ..is the Data good enough with n=27 to sustain a market value above $200,000,000? It's about time for Alzheimers to get it's arse kicked! and why not ANAVEX? Why NOT?
so a craving of the drug itself? but wouldn't the loss of Sigma 1 Activation cause a craving for that which you had?
I wonder if you asked the Patients currently taking A2-73 if they thought they could live without A2-73 what their answer would be?
I wonder what any of those Patients , their families would do to stay on A2-73? We better make sure we can make a lot it!
Because once I get on it..I ain't coming off!
I am kinda kidding here, but I am kinda serious too..
Once someone taps this mechanism..they will never want it to end..
Start saving your money for your A2-73 Prescription!
Anyone selling below $25/share after 41 week announcement is poorly versed in the english language..and really $25 is low..
And they say you can't get rich in the stock market?
it is a hypothesis partially proved by ancedotal evidence:
Positive Side Effects noted in HAM-D..but that doesn't mean
patients Blood Pressure didn't go down or that their eyesight
didn't improve or that their Intestinal process didn't work better, or that their Libido's Physical attributes were not more active..
Anavex didn't start a Base for those..
but through Observation..my Hypothesis..is anywhere there are Sigma 1 Ligands..Homeostasis is happening..