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psychologically the short cabal has beaten the longs with the down stick so many times, beatings are no longer necessary. Just reaching into the pocket now proves sufficient.
It's funny, americans take drugs for everything..to get high, to get low, to get slow, to get fast, to feel good, to come down..addictive, dangerous,
but a sigma 1 agonist that traces out of the body before the next dose, that makes you feel good, sleep better, and increases/stabilizes your "acuity", well that's too much! let's beat that beast for another 10 years until another 10 million people die..and by golly , by gum..
it will be safe then! Especially for the people resting comfortably in their graves! however since we've never tested on dead people before, we can not be sure of new toxicities prevalent in mud centered non-life.
We will have to run more tests to see if A2-73 passes new safety protocols in order to allow A2-73 for these future 10 Million dead.
But HEY, it's what Trials are for.. Safety First, because otherwise people may not die so quick..
I've heard the numbers from BIIB somewhere before..
The article I read used around $30 Billion in increased Market Cap/Lost.
Wouldn't argue the $22 Billion..
the $8 Billion drop in Lilly would confirm your multi-billion
dollar evaluation..and Lilly becomes another player in the game for Ananvex, IF Anavex is not already engaged.
Good Call on Biogen..
Your evaluation does not include the Prophelactic Effect of A2-73 and
it's multi-IND uses. No one was going to use either BIIB or LLY frug that did not have Alzheimers..
When you ADD that Value..I think you go well past the $10 Billion Valuation..
Multiples of $10 Billion..
1 1/2 hours into market..
that should be interesting..
amateur.
how do we track them? will there be easy access to abstract?
will they be available before the market opens?
Hindsight is 07 for 07:
the number of participants starting the trial that were Monotherapy: 7
the number of patients that have dropped from the trial; 31=27: 5
the percentage of Total Patients to drop from trial at 6 Mo: 16%
The percentage of Monotherapy Patients to drop from trial: 0%
At one point after 5 week trial was over, patients were
25% at 50 Mg and 75% at 30Mg..some adjustments were probably ongoing
because 10Mg is mentioned twice, but in re-reading MTD paper
More was better..
so..Big Assumption here..but it appears that based on those two statements
that at Maximum only 25% of our Patients are on "MTD" which by logic, after reading the Pharmacokinetic Poster again, be the
Recommended Dosage, Xena had mentioned this earlier..and the statements in the MTD Poster bear her out..I would think MTD = Recommended
I don't think they would announce a collaberation at a science conf. but wait until Monday. Why confuse the issue. As it is , there are going to be a lot of questions about the "adaptive Trial" and whatever reasons are presented for no longer pursuing Anavex Plus/Combo Therapy..and focuisng upon MonoTherapy in Phase 3.
At 6 months if you took out MonoTherapy scores, than the Dual therapy seems to be trending down..especially on ADCS-ADL..The 41 Week announcement says all patients responding..Alzheimers gives no relief..and
IF Combo Therapy patients started trendind sideways or up after 6 months instead of down, than the good Dr would not have dropped Combo Therapy as a target Strata...
So logically it all points to ..and I know this is hard to believe..but logically it all points to ALL patients going Monotherapy..
To me it is the only way all the patients "acuity" is preserved through 9 months..I don't see how it is possible..but..
logically and with the data shown..that is the most logical conclusion..even if it is impossible to believe..
the good Dr..might really have a show for us..can not wait
I've got to be close to the one five..
But if I have one more. Why not give it to all primates!
http://www.alzforum.org/webinars/alzheimers-disease-uniquely-human-disorder
Could not agree more!
No conspiracy here ..
Just Move along ..
The fact that at Our 5 week results release the message boards were slammed with " pump and dump"
Scam calls against "gangster"Dr MacFarlane and Prana.
An offended shareholder of 2 shares and his cohort of daily announcements from blood sucking 500 New York attorneys, and the 50 "sell" articles from FOOLS Prognosticators. The street and any other two bit wreck of a writer..
And the bad Dr Shrkeili( whose not really anything) and his bestie Adam Fuerstein.. and of course are no 1 non conspiracy guy that sucked out $ 30 Billion in market money by eagerly panting after Biogens Plaque Erasing photo show..
Absolutely no conspiracy here! Especially if your memory is say only two weeks long!
No ,,
It's called a Short & Distort Cabal.
Conspiracy is too nice a word for what these slime have done to Anavex
If you look at the "qualifying" captions underneath..
They were vouching their words because they could not tell us why.
Because the "why" was happening after 6 month data and that is what we are Sat. IMO
Nice BA! Well done
So.. now that I've given it more thought.. the claims being made at 41 weeks would be beyond improbable knowing the Combo Therapy graph decline at 6 months..
The ONLY way these claims are possible IMO are IF Combo patients switched to Monotherapy and their data shows reversed decline aka improvement!
Alzheimer news today"Patients’ mental acuity and ability to manage everyday tasks were evaluated at the start of the study. At the end, none of the 32 patients showed cognitive decline. Measures of daily living, depression, and brain activity were also stable during the treatment period."
There were only 27 patients still in trial at 6 months.
But think about this..
those 20 Dual Therapy patients were definitely showing cognitive declining test scores... what changed?
Man.. can not wait!
Nice article in
Alzheimer news today as well.. from late November..
It states none of the patients dropped in mental " acuity".
[ho?me-o-sta´sis]
the tendency of biological systems to maintain relatively constant conditions in the internal environment while continuously interacting with and adjusting to changes originating within or outside the system. See also balance and equilibrium. adj., adj homeostat´ic. The term is considered by some to be misleading in that the word element-stasis implies a static or fixed and unmoving state, whereas homeostasis actually involves continuous motion, adaptation, and change in response to environmental factors.
It is through homeostatic mechanisms that body temperature is kept within normal range, the osmotic pressure of the blood and its hydrogen ion concentration (pH) is kept within strict limits, nutrients are supplied to cells as needed, and waste products are removed before they accumulate and reach toxic levels of concentration. These are but a few examples of the thousands of homeostatic control systems within the body. Some of these systems operate within the cell and others operate within an aggregate of cells (organs) to control the complex interrelationships among the various organs.
Miller-Keane Encyclopedia and Dictionary of Medicine, Nursing, and Allied Health, Seventh Edition. © 2003 by Saunders, an imprint of Elsevier, Inc. All rights reserved.
Sounds like they want to regain Homeostasis with regards to Gluken related cell stress..
Hmm... our new favorite word..
Homeostasis..
Wonder what happens when you google Homeostasis?
Just think about the metrics if A2-73 is making patients better that stop taking current SOC..
I think it is a definitive possibility that patients after seeing the Monotherapy results requested/demanded to be put on Monotherapy. That is common sense and that is an adaptive trial.
They may not have, my point was how did the good Dr come to such definitive Data as to drop Anavex Plus as a target? My theory was that not only did Combo Therapy patients switch, but that those that did switch responded exceptionally well.
And that would be "coup des gras"
It could just be terrible data in the Combo bs good data in Monotherapy..
It's possible.. we find out soon..
Place your bets..
there si notheing that the good Dr has to do ..other than get Phase 3 going..so however he decides to do that is his biz..
but I would think, that it is reasonable to assume..
somewhere in his presentation..there has to be some definitive DATA showing WHY Anavex Plus is no longer a target..
and another assumption, although this one is logical and follows..
that this Data will prove MonoTherapy data exemplary..
save the run for after the conference..but don't buy pre-market on Monday..
please..lets walk it up instead of letting the Market Makers Short Momentum at the Top..
AND IF the Market Makers do try to short Momentum at the top..
LET'S MAKE THEM PAY!
great post Jonjones!
Do you have opinion on what may have caused Anavex "Adapting" to MonoTherapy as lone target? No Anavex Plus?
I am of the opinion we see convincing evidence of Monotherapy this week and that is why..
Do you think we will see any data from patients that switched from Dual To MonoTherapy?
I just think the good Dr will have to explain with Data WHY AnavexPlus is no longer a target.
21st Century Phase 3
Dr visit prescribe Code for A2-73 APP.
Answer questions , sign release Prescription Approved. Prescription approval ONLY by answering safety / efficacy questions on A2-73 Phase 3 Trial APP.
First 5 million applicants meeting criteria may join Phase 3: titled : A2-73 creates Homeostasis.
Patients are allowed to stay in the trial as long as they wish. APP tests continue to monitor functionality of patient and APP loaded safety flares may immediately Physicians and Patients of dangers.
Each set of testing and Dr reports may by instantaneously interpreted and analyzed, and you may have the largest Phase 3 Trial the world has ever seen..
The patients pay for the drugs and Anavex can run advertisements on the APP to pay for the Phase 3 data capture.
There. Now pay me the $500,000,000 I just saved everyone and we will call it even.
Think you can do a breath test over the phone too..
Thank you
Thank you very much!
This trial was designed to fail, and if not fail , give enough direction on how not to fail a phase 3 trial..
It's laughable the same people who backed Lilly, Biogen, MERRKT out of hundreds of millions, no Billions, that want Anavex to go broke running a lab, now have the internal fortitude to tell Anavex what to do next !
Go tell Biogen or Lilly or AXON what to do and how to lose their money!
We designed a Phase 2 to fail, we will design a Phase 3 to succeed.
All these large studies are either to prove something works when it doesn't or Safety..
If something works. ..and it s safe ..
HELLOoooooooooo
You just APPROVE IT!
Reminds me of a batsman episode;
Will the caped crusader crush the wicked Alzheimer's?
Will Villain "Shorty" Cabal make millions fleecing the good citizens of Gotham with yet another Stink Bomb?
Will the good Dr emerge triumphant over Big "hope crusher" Pharma?
Stay tuned! Same Bat Channel ! Same Bat time! Same Bat Crazy Place; IHUB
Jon the people that believe in Anavex already have much invested.
Some may add more, but most have risk Capital fully vested.
So, it is nice to see Institutional buyers, Funds and Insiders at 40%..
If these larger Capital Intensive Organizations add 20% to their holdings
and other Institutitons come in on the data..we will be moving north.
The Public is best left out of the equation at this point..as
I am sick of the Sheering..it's disgusting. The good Dr could stop it by selling/in licensing ..but at what cost to the Longs?
The dey I think for many longs,,is Value to Shareholders increases..
that does not necessarily mean a higher stock price tomorrow..Although that would be nice too!
We will take more than 2/3 of our Trial into a ComboTherapy that computer Models have shown to produce additional benefits to MonoTherapy of A2-73!
We will attempt to extend our patents using the Combo Therapy as a lead.
In three months, from 6 months to 9 months,
during which time the Combo Patent was for all sense and purpose, rejected
the Company had enough Data, to scrap Combination Therapy as a target.
What type of Data do you think we shall see?
Cogstate, Neouronetrix, Dr MacFarlane et al..all hands on deck!
Maybe Monotherapy isn't SOC and everyone wanted to gather, hold hands, and sing
"Kumbaya"
Agreed.
At some point we bust the chains of the Cabal and momentum traders.
It's hard not to let the stock price effect how you view the science.
But the reality of the science is
A2-73 as a Monotherapy with what The good Dr has already said is SOC at 9 months. It's not that a year doesn't matter, but give me another 9 months of Regression Free Survival(RFS) with positive side bennies.. I will gladly take a stay of the executioner for even a day much less 9 months!
i tried to edit this ..
It APPEARS that A2-73 in Mono therapy MAY be effective upon 100% of the people..but we don't know the variances of the 7 people and how they relate to all Alzheimer sufferers..
sorry..got carried away..and my edit was too slow to catch it..
just consider 27 people sentenced to death..a slow tortuous death, unable to care for selves, feed selves, a miserable death a zombi death, the only difference is you don't eat flesh before or after you are dead..
they divide you up inot two groups..!
one gets DRUG A and one group gets DRUG B
One Year later..ALL of Group B is just like 100,000;s no Mikllions of other
disease sufferers one year into their 5 year death sentence..
They are on the same track..a little happier, a little slower.
BUT all 7 of Drug A recipients have not changed at all..
they are not a=on any Death Track that anyone may say..
Actually most of them appear healthier, happier One Year later than when they started..
Is there a SAFETY FEAR? Yeah..not to be in Drug Group B..
Is there an EFFICACY Question? Again ONLY if you took DRUG B..
This would be like when we discovered penicilin..well we see it works..it stopps the diseasee form killing people..but is it safe?
Hunh? We know it's safer than the disease! Insert your favorite word here _____for people that knows what they knows and don't wish to be confused by the facts!
It's only seven people..it's only seven people..it's effective upon 100% of people ..it is a miracle drug..AND bp CAN NOT see straight ..AS THEIR EYES ARE TEARED IN RAGE! Can you blame them? Why Anavex is now focused solely on the MonoTherapy of A2-73, countown 4 Days..SWEET
Biostock. . It's gotta make the AXONs and Lilly's and Biogens sick seeing this )10,000,000 Wunda Co with the first drug to actually make people better. Do these companies even want people getting better?
Our drug flushes from the system: doesn't accumulate..( minimizes cancer risk)
Our drug uses body to repair , doesn't decrease, increase chemicals in process, SO body doesn't try to counter act drug( no bad side effects).
Small molecule. Cannabinoid Muscarinics and Sigma 1 agonists have proven safe in past...
Again no negative side effects does point to a lower risk of major safety issues.
With current abilities to instantaneously communicate . Safety issues may be easily and quickly tracked all over the worldd
Go Anavex!
Truth
Multiply AF beat down with generational Alzheimer beat down
No each group was scored at 70 to start.
It just makes moving to higher valuations possible.. retail accounts simply don't have the risk capital to survive short and distort above a certain amount .. for Anavex $200million(IMO) has proven such a level..
Not our last chance on Mono at 41 Weeks?
How about Parkinson's?
How about all Depressive \ Anxiety indications?
How about our 4 other drugs in development that all show promise?
We have a platform to develop new drugs as good as or better than the ones we already have!
The Combo Patent had some value as to length of non competitive marketing Anavex might enjoy,,but the computer models showing greater effect were just wrong.
Whatever we have lost w Combo we gain 100 fold by replacing Aricept..
It's why we have buyers and sellers.
Sell. Thank You very much
This is a great point and again shows the Guiding Hand to our efforts..
It is hard to let go sometimes and I think the loss of any Combo Patent made diving harder(Ariana) into the data more vital. They dropped Combo because of its lack of comparative success to A2-73 MonoTherapy.
My guess is Combo would still be on the table as SOC IF Monotherapy was not proving a major significant difference. They would still be exploring both! Why aren't they?
Not because of the failure to Patent Combo, but Mono Data is too robust to deny .
What that looks like on a poster board at CTAD .. well we will find out..
This may sound smart, but don't be deceived!
I believe A2-73 metabolizes to a lesser Sigma 1 agonist A-141? This is why only one dose needed as A2-73 lasts all day long! It's just insane..
Coin it! Missing Missiles! Haha
The good General Dr!
Look, we proverbially have the tiger by the tail, the old man and the Sea, we need a bigger boat.. haha.
Have any of you really considered what next week means for the World?
We are so caught in our little $.20 cent moves and Gap Fills and battling short distorters.
I said this earlier when the good Dr first dropped Combo Therapy..
He told us all he could,,, If you are selling your stock and you are a long..
Well .. there was no more the good Dr could say other than 41 wrk and no Combo.. I guess he figures if your smart enough to buy stock in a company, your smart enough to add 1+1....
Again I ask.. Does anyone have a responsibility of Caveat Emptor come 12/12 or is just Wild Wild West?
This is a good point as well. The adcs pretest scores were the same for both groups; 70 . which would lead one to believe same level of impairment to start.
I don't think Donezipil rejection normally quite that high.. but can't be ruled out as factoring into 7. Aricept Naive doesn't necessarily mean never tried Aricept.
Ariana has probably already saved Anavex 3-6 months and millions of $$
As I don't think there is anyway the good Dr drops Combination without
Insurmountable data. A decision by the way, that will have to be justified next week. How will the good Dr justify such a decision?
With Data!
The real question is..does the Stock Market, Anavex, SEC, Market Makers,
Authority, Institutional buyers, FDA, Media, all knowing that the Short Cabal is so effective preying on new Shareholders, do any/some/ all of these groups have any responsibility for HOW this data is released to the Public as news?
We all want the company to do well, but the Fuerstein:/Fool/Street / market Makers machine is well oiled.
In my opinion it is not reasonable to make a breakthrough announcement and not provide some level of..
Honesty?
Speculation:
Dosage tolerance and efficacy higher and greater in Mono-therapy..
The pharmacokinetic response to MTD is probably different in MonoTherapy vs Combination.
Less does more..
Wonder also if MTD in mono group was higher? Or the same .. or maybe even less?
My medical knowledge is obviously limited( a big ditto to all my other knowledges ). But if Aricept competed for Sigma 1 we may need less A2-73 to be more effective, thus making cheaper to use and even safer...
Towards my lack of knowledge, I read that the dosage of A2-73 was tremendously less than other medications ? Is this reasonable? Aricept is 25 Mg (again consider my brain capacity) seems like it is about the same..
It's not the data we know, but the data he knows!
So if you put 41 weeks statement together with the dropping of Aricept and adjunct therapy..
You get A2-73 as a Monotherapy that has test scores showing Higher by 20%? Or more .. at 9 months..
Then keep in mind Safety Record and side effects..
We are SOC.
The reason WHY this is a big deal with only 30 people is the % of people and how drastically different they are doing...When the Public finds out how safe, tolerable, side bennies, that this drug is,.. Katy get your Bar out ..
They had this at 6 months but couldn't show it in enough Data,,
Why they brought on Ariana.
They tried to make it fail..It's good the good Dr failed at failing!
I agree Zena, retail is educated .
The only shares being shaken are new buyers. The difference is
Longs do not ADD to positions higher
They trade with the shorts...
The more institutions own the better.
We are heading in the right direction.
It's snake bit buyers..
I'm ok with it going up after conference in a steady way
And not letting the short attack new buyers with Market makers and lying Investment advisories..
We have gone from 5-10 % tightly held to 40%( insiders, institutions, funds) from trading 32 million to trading 24 million .. we are getting better.. actually. That begins to look more like a float that can be supported above $200,000,000 market cap..
Well blu.. apparently not close enough.. because it's Monotherapy..
All day long..