Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Even Dado breaks down at the beauty of A2-73!
Tag it!
I don't know if I have one more post..
But this response from Dr Mac should answer everyone's question about my hypothesis!
The patients are dropping Aricept like a hot rock and are responding like they just took a chain from around their necks.
This is an absolute home run and next report will be even better
Because not only does it look like A2-73 stops Alzheimer's regressive properties, it looks like it makes people better! And it looks like it does it with no bad side effects, no DZP, and everyone slept like a baby!
Not everyone.. well you know what.. maybe everyone!
I guess so!
We slapped the beast Alzheimers upside his big ol fat ugly head!
75% were at 30mg 25% were at 50mg
Some must have lowered dosage to 10 Mg due to probably dizziness..
I don't think they moved up any of the 30mg patients to 50 mg, as I would consider that optimizing.
But in that regard, based on PK report the more the merrier.. so we have a lot of room to do even better!
Well. Those would be reasonable thoughts if the good Dr had not said in an interview that the company was no longer pursuing Combination therapy.
Amateur
Common sense is not common.
We will have a Confernce Call soon
Aren't you curious why no dual therapy vs Monotherapy graphs?
I don't have to ask,, I know Alzheimer's never stops destroying the human brain and there is no way the average of all 25 is changed by 6 that are already near the high end of the scores..
mathematically the other 18-19 have to change direction to stop the average from descending.
Believe it or not .. some patients and their caregivers might just stop taking Aricept without telling anyone..
Shhhh..
I don't need to ask anyone what's happening,,
By hook or by crook.. Alzheimer's is getting it's arse kicked
By A2-73!
Phase 2a originally designed as 26 week. Some Aricept may have switched at 6 months, some at 9 and some at 12 months.. you can't make people take Aricept.
It's an open adaptive trial..
The 6 Monotherapy patients are getting better..it would be inhumane not to allow other participants to switch..
No we can't say cure.. but we can say getting better! Bam ..
lets have the largest most open Insomnia trial EVER!
Look I can't sleep!
No really I can't sleep!
No I mean normally I have a really rough time sleeping..
Whose in?
Falconer may we start a petition using this post? Would you like some credit? Shoot me a private message.
Whiskey
I am guessing the FDA already signed off. The data from 6 months was probably last grouping large enough to include dual therapy..
this was originally designed as 6 month trial.. I am guessing some stopped at 6 months and more stopped at 9 months and more at 12 months.. just look at the last 5 weeks!
All a guess on my part.
I thought good Dr would have to explain why no Dual Therapy..
It's something simple .. like..
We are just tracking A2-73 dosage now..and that is how they got away with changing Aricept naive population .
We are so blessed!
Wait until the good Dr drops this bomb at an investor call!
What where do think the whole group is next Science Confrerence?
Someone Dado , falcon, George?
And start a petition to make A2-73 immediately available...or may I have permission to use the great Fslconers tagged post? That post is awesome!
Correct! They didn't switch dosages..
They just stopped taking Aricept!
Notice how ZERO mention of Aricept?
Why would you take Aricept if you had A2-73?
These patients and doctors and families are not idiots!
They didn't sign up he people they love because they wanted them to be guinea pigs! They wanted them to stop getting worse and get better!
The people on Monotherapy are getting better!
It is an OPEN trial!
They can't make you take Aricept!
Pure conjecture on my part about dual therapy patients switching to Monotherapy..
Common sense and changing graphs vs the constant beast that is Alzheimers. Figure it out for yourself.
I again am trying to tell the longs something they should know intuitively.. how did the average scores trend up after 6 months?
The average ADCS was at 62 and MMSE at 18 and both trending down..
Can anyone guess why a progressive recessive disease would trend positive without any change to the patients medication?
No. because it would not change.
Alzheimer's is a beast! You don't defeat it by hoping scores change..
YOU ADAPT!
What did the good Dr ADAPT?
They stopped caring about DualTherapy! They only care about MonoTherapy! If you don't want to take your Aricept anymore .. we can't make you!
Oh look your scores are going up!
Unbelievable!
Will longs be adding to positions?
You betcha!
Will those that bought higher be averaging down?
You betcha!
They brought the average ADCS and MMSE up by going Monotherapy
This drug is the bomb!
Everyone go to Drudge or The gateway Pundit or Infowars..
or Breitbart.
Tell them this story is under LOCK AND KEY by Big Pharma.
Let's get them to be the HEROES!
I have contacted Jim Hoff at the Gateway Pundit..by Tweet..
let;s hammer these sources to run the story..
I again respond
Somewhere patients have been going
Monotherapy. It's why. They stopped differentiating. The 6 outliers are original Monotherapy.. but the entire group turning north screams more mono than dual..
You just don't turn around the 6 month Combo numbers without something changing.. they went Mono
So beautiful
So look at charts for 52 weeks to 57 weeks..
I think A2-73 went monoTherapy at end of trial and that's what allowed uptrend.
I bet that we have many more Monotherapy patients than 7 ..
Part C is going to be unbelievable!
Post of the day! Amen
Yes George!
Of course it is!
The numbers were strong enough not to have to separate them out from pooled data!
However there should be 7! We lost one of our magnificents!
Hope they are ok.. but one of 27 to 25 was probably a Mono Magnificient..
Maybe numbers not as good ,, but my guess is something else..
22 MMSE average to start 25.66 MMSE average to finish..
Someone said not a cure.. ok
A treatment that cures symptoms and stops regression ..
Hmm..
ok . Not a cure,, we will call it..
A miracle
Don't have to they put Insomnia in presentation for a reason!
Do you know how large a market
Non-addictive non psychotic sleep medicine is?
I think it's bigger than all CNS combined.. 60 Billion?
Simply unbelievable ..
It's a busy day and I will have more later..
But a couple of things struck me hard..
Amplification of P300. .. wow. At 12 months ! Looks higher than baseline!
You can not make that up..well af could..
The 6 high performers (where is number 7.. right?) but their starting MMSE average is 22
Their ending is MMSE is 25.66
Holy Cow! The Placebo control for MMSE at one year would be 19 or less! Just unbelievable. But not so much when you tie it up with P300 numbers..
Oh my!
I think they are reading my posts!
How about Insomnia Focus!
Are you kidding me! We aren't selling to anyone!
How about 3 month Rett Syndrome?
We might have approval 2nd Q 2017!
Just unbelievable!
Anyone having trouble sleeping?
Want to join a Trial?
Wowowowowowowowow
What a glorious day!
The poster should go live at 10:45 am.
No I don't have way..
Wish I were in SanDiego for this
Momentum day!
That is logical..
also keep in mind..
MJFF, Rett Syndrome still in immediate wings.. as is Biogen review..
And who knows what else!
it also helps us that the SubGroup is MONOTHERAPY!
It is a logical Subgroup..And one that was derined BEFORE the Trial began.
Data Mining would inference trying to find meaning AFTER you have Data that did not work because you are desparate to find a path..
Powerwalker:
Great Post..This insight I bleive has been overlooked and you capture it brilliantly:
IR has indicated that the lines of the sub-groups are converging, though it doesn't indicate for which periods, i.e., is it beyond Week 57 of which they are speaking. To me, this means the combo group has been switched to mono and their scores have stopped decreasing and are now flat lined or are increasing.
The only way these two subgroups could ever merge (IMO) would be if they have Date from converted Dual to Mono Therapy Group.
This could also be the Data used to JUSTIFY switching from
two Strata focuses Anavex and Anavex Plus, to the stated singular Strata of MonoTherapy!
Great Find!
Monday morning you look so fine
Friday I got travelin' on my mind
First you love me, then you fade away
I can't go on believin' this way
I got nothing but love for you
So tell me what you really want to do
First you love me then you get on down the line
But I don't mind, I don't mind
you only want me when I get over you..
Man I love Fleetwood Mac!
Ok so this is a little long..I am sorry..but lest we forget the beast we battle ..and the current state of the War..What good is Saturday? Or Monday?
It's not like we can't take chances! It's not like we are winning!
2025 is 9 YEARS AWAY!
A little cut and paste ..lest we forget..Thanks for sources..
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder associated with advanced age. Currently, total annual costs of AD exceed $100 billion,1 making AD the third most expensive disease in the United States, preceded only by heart disease and cancer.2 The prevalence of AD doubles approximately every 5 years after the age of 65,3 approaching 50% in persons over the age of 85.4 As the baby boomer generation is reaching retirement age, AD will affect more people than ever before. By the year 2025, an estimated 18% of the U.S. population will be over age 65.5 Therefore, the aging of the population will have a profound medical and social impact.
Although there are some differences in putative mechanisms, all of the CIs are believed to function in the same basic manner—to increase the bioavailability of acetylcholine at the synapse. The acetylcholine molecule is released into the synaptic space by the presynaptic neuron and binds to receptors in the postsynaptic neuron, promoting an action potential. The acetylcholine molecule is subject to enzymatic degradation in the synaptic space by one of several cholinesterases. CIs bind to and inactivate these cholinesterases, reducing the normal enzymatic degradation of the acetylcholine molecule into its component parts (acetyl CoA and choline).
CIs also increase acetylcholine activity in the peripheral nervous system. This contributes to side effects, including common ones such as nausea, gastrointestinal (GI) upset, and diarrhea. Less common side effects include muscular weakness, syncope, and significant weight loss on occasion. Despite the adverse effects of the CIs in general, most patients seem to tolerate CIs.
The CIs show a pattern of modest initial gain (approximately 1.5 points of gain above baseline on the MMSE), with average MMSE scores falling below the baseline at about six to nine months and continuing to decline. Even after scores fell below the baseline, a modest (but statistically significant) advantage remains for the CIs over placebo for the life of the study, typically a year or less. The initial gain of 1.5 points on the MMSE can be reasonably characterized as quite modest.
QUITE MODEST.. A 1.5 Point Gain on MMSE is QUITE MODEST with average falling BELOW Baseline at 6 - 9 Months..and continuing decline..
Come Saturday Morning..
Please COMPARE the response of MonoTherapy to CURRENT LOSING BATTLE..
Also.for all you ODDS players..
You have 32 Marbles ..25 WHITE..7 RED..
What are the ODDS of you Reaching in the jar ..
BLINDFOLDED, choosing 7 Marbles..
and ALL OF THEM BEING RED?
on the first try?
so..they say..well, DZP Naieve Patients may be less Sick or more prone to misdiagnosis..as disease not progressed enough to be on Donezipil or any other AD Drug.. OK..But the study is Mild to Moderate AD..So let's Compromise..the 7 were MILD - Assumption for Battle -
Then at one year without A2-73..they would be Moderate..
I am anticipating for Mono therapy a battle victory, a collapsing of a battlefield Flank, a weakness in the Wall, a loosening of Alzheimers death grip on humanity..A BREACH like Mankind has never known before..
Estimated MMSE: 25 ..Actually think it may be OVER 25..ABOVE BAseline
Estimate ADCS-ADL; Over 70..maybe even higher than 72..above bASELINE.
IMO..It would be statistically impossible to achieve this average
without 100% of the 7 Patients in Mono Therapy being Positively effected..(The MMSE range starts Normal at 24..so to be 25 or above becomes more difficult, therefor why IMO all 7 must be effected to average this high)
That would be pulling out ALL 7 RED Marbles, while blindfolded, from a jar of 32..Come on odds guys..lay it on us..do the math..what is the probability? What are the odds?
Even if all 7 are Mild..it's statistically impossible for this effect not to be real..and it works without Aricept..and it has positive side effects..and the good Dr has 2 years of longitudinal data from PART C..
Maybe even Crossover Data from Dual to Mono.?
Tomorrow(IMO) we Celebrate the breach,
as Alzheimers deserves to be crushed!
Monday Morning..
We hopefully will be flooding the breach with faith, hope and love.
that is easy Tom..
The Market Makers!
They trade the stock up to a certain level selling inventory and
matching trades...until they see buying momentum slowing down at a higher price.or they fix a price using a supply chart( .a previous support level..
and they just start selling stock they don't have..at that price..once they have sold stock they don't own and sapped buying momentum out..they keep selling stock on the way down..really killing momentum and activating traders and other short sellers..that they have reached a high..
the drip ..drip of the down walk ..panics traders, ..motivvates longs..
and half way through.the market makers stop selling stock they don't own..
and let nature take it's course..then $.30->40 cents lower..they cover their short sale..all in the same day usually/probably..but they can go a few days without covering..
the market makers were probably HUGE shorts after Reverse Split..
thinking stock would go down on Secondary..but when Missling didn't do Secondary..that is when they WENT TO WAR WITH ANAVEX..
I am hopeful their game is about over..The Feds have put some Market Makers away for doing this..but ..Capitalism is a brutal force without some regualtionss..A pox on the market makers and short cabal for slowing down the only known treatment for Alzheimers..Actually I pray for them and their eternal souls.
Ziggy.
The news is earth shattering.
I can see trepidation from any organization reporting upon news of such great hope.
when no one is getting better you need thousands to prove how uch less they are getting worse..
when Ptients are getting better you really only need a few..
right?
Regression Free Survival..is a first..A2-73..
it is very exciting..
Or tomorrow when we rock CTAD?
Or Monday after a weekend of excited
Attendees calling their PR wonks.
benny..we might see a conference call
sooner rather than later..
but no..i don't know..
but announcing it ..was brilliante!
Thanks Dado!
Looking forward to Investment Call!
Could be Apo4e. Or e4 or ego..
Or the major subgroup with Irs own charts at 6 months..
We will never know..
Oh wait..
so based on stated improvements for Overall MMSE and ADCS ..
so based on my simple math calculations..
ADCS-and MMSE for MonoTherapy subroups will be in UP TREND at 12 months.
simply unbelievable..
Wish I could see that Poster..
I always have to think twice when my opinion differs from DADO..
after re-reading your post..it is logical..although..you know what the subgroups are..
and to show the MonoTherapy Success, you have to show the Combo.mediocrity..
My point is ..Press conference soon..
Failure is expected in Alzheimers..the A2-73 Comob Line will be the same line so many have foolowed..That AF truimphs at that line speaks for AF..but NOT for US or A2-73..
No Anavex is not a get rich quick scheme having been invested for multiple years..
BUT it IS A medicine that should be made available sooner rather than later.
No STUDY has ever shown a grouping of multiple patients showing Regression Free Survival..
And is there ANY doubt that ALL 4 of the patients who actually got better, the golfer, the shopper , the artist, the piano player..is there any doubt that they were all in the MonoTherapy subgroup? so at minimum over 50% of the 100% effected Subgroup got better?
It is not a get rich scheme..but it ss a get better drug..
let's put it to work!
i again repeat..using very simple math, averaging of subgroups into stated better overall average scores , the anticipated scores of over 25 on MMSE and over 72 on ADCS-ADL for MonoTherapy Subgroups after over one year of A2-73 whilst being Aricept Naieve..
Ladies and gentleman..24 MMSE is low score for AVERAGE Human Being..to hold above 25 is simply unbelievable..
I was hoping for longitudinal crossover data from those that stopped taking Aricept..which we still might get..maybe during Investment Call..
But let me ask the board a question..
Would anyone , knowing what we now know, choose Aricept over A2-73?
Would anyone, not stope taking Aricept to start taking A2-73?
So what we are dealing with ..are the UNINFORMED..
Saturday..they get informed..Wwe all have friends , moms and dads..
LET US FIGHT FOR THEM!
I simply don't know enough about the pre-historic centuries old pracitces of letting people die slow , incredibly slow & painful deaths while the treatment is available to stop it, to respond to multi-year delays for Optimal dosage. But I can tell you..that the 21st Century Cures Act is purportedly supposed to bring medicine into the ..21st Century.
I would think a Medicine that if it is shown to stop 100% of a deadly disease in 100% of a subgroup in a medical trial..would find a more non-mid-evil path to sufferers..
although Alzheimers isn't the word that cancer is..it's the same sentence.
As of Monday, if Saturday's presentation confirms the safety and high response rate, the Public will demand access to this treatment.
Not in 6 months, Not in 2 Years, but on Jan 1, 2017.
How hard is it to make A2-73? How Expensive? How much can be made and how quickly? How may we track Safety and Efficacy with Cell Phones & computers?
A petition will begin.
A movement will begin.
The Public Good will be served. And it's not science be damned.
It's "science is all grown up now", and letting people suffer and die
while a safe treatment exists, simply is not necessary, nor will it be tolerated as a sacrifice to "old School".
Those calling for this necessity, are not bad people, for some drugs where safety and efficacy are question marks, they are rational people,
but when it comes to a safe drug, that when taken actually has positive side effects, that works-100% of a sub-group, and proves to be minimal 100% Regression Free for that subgroup....well then..
It's time play 21st Century.
Many of us were drawn to this space in search of hope and we found Anavex.
From early on, Miss Australia, et al provided a window of hope. the data for most of us was excting..the painter,the musician..etc..really bolstered our spirits..my guess is many of us cried when we saw and heard the piano player..Phase 3 my arse..I thought..
We came down a little with the short cabal, and the haters..dealing with ignorance is never easy..the data delays were frustrating..but all this while a picture was emerging inside Anavex..that something really special was happening..some patients were doing exceptionally well..exceptionally ..and they were all in the same subgroup..not after..but before the Trial began..
I can not wait until we see how PART C has been adjusted for MonoTherapy..but if Dual therapy is no longer a target strata..why have PART C patients on both?
there won't be any issues filling the Australian Phase 2/3 for A2-73 in MonoTHErapy..none..I a cna not until Sat. and then the Press Conference..
something really fun is coming our way..the good Dr is ready ..
Jonjones
So you have to do the math of averages to see what is about to blow the world away.
So MMSE is 4 point decline over 12 months.. so we cut loss in half over 12 months.. but wait. .. really for dual therapy. We didn't even do that.. more like 20-25% if you compare dual therapy to DZP. ..
So what is the big deal?
It means 7 MonoTherapy patients in order to average UP overall scores
Are Getting Better..
Yeah there I said it..
Monotherapy is STOPPING Alzheimer's!
The magnificent Beautiful down under, but not down & out 7