would like to thank the Academy
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LOL, I am a HUGE Prime member. Heck, just in the last few weeks alone, I have bought new Running shoes from them, a bunch of Muscle Milk, Extra Virgin Olive Oil, and some dopey crap at a good price to give as gifts. I LOVE Amazon, but the chart, and the way stocks are going lately, tell me it is a PUT play.
NOT IN IT, by the way, still holding some other damn Puts that I am HOPING will pay off.
PCLN down over $10 since that downgrade. May be nice for PUTS
And THERE it is! Right about now, i would be going with $142 Puts if I were daytrading in SPY.
Here we go. SPY holding steady at the 142.45 level. My GUESS is that it will fill the gap this morning, into the 142.40 level, and then come on down under $142 by days end.
You are SPOT on with that $400 target, looks to be a nice point of support. There will be a LOT of buying should it get into that area.
I hardly daytrade lately, don't really have the time, and right now I am so sick, I am seeing 2 charts, lol. Playing the longer term options. Hoping DSW continues the plunge it has been taking!
Still love how AAPL, with all the stuff it sells and money it makes, and relatively low PE, is taking a licking, and crap like CRM keeps going up! And have you SEEN the AMZN PE? If AAPL is selling off because of tax rise fear, those suckers should drop like rocks next. (Or one would THINK)
It's nice to see GOLD catching a bid today, while all else looks crappy. Run-up to Wednesdays Fed move?
It sure looks choppy. I would look to fade any pops that occur today, were I daytrading SPY.
The kids out here LOVE the Monster beverages, and could care less that someone died drinking it. They go through the stuff like crazy, and buy cases at a time. (Non coffee drinkers!)
Ate light, can only handle rice and such right now.
I see futures came back up to the neutral line, and the Euro came back as well. Wow, all must have been fixed since I left!
My CPB Puts the same. The DAY after I got them, CPB had a big drop. After that...nada!
Off to dinner. Should be back on before the open.
Deutsche Bank Downgrades ($PCLN) to Hold, Sees "Cold War" Hurting http://stks.co/dFvK
Euro really hanging around that 1.29 this monring, but I think it drops when the US market pens. TOO MUCH craziness over there. I see support at about 1.2850
Still holding my BMRN, CPB and DSW Puts. DSW dropping nice lately, BMRN needs to just drop and fill that gap for me! Got until NEXT Friday.
CPB Puts looking like they are going nowhere. Friggin' soup!
Good morning Larry. Better wet than snowy. I hope you got your sleigh ready to go.
Yep, what an awesome post. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a DIFFERENT result. Well, 4 years of idiocy will now be 8 years!
LOL, we great minds thinking and typing alike!
Message edit: GOOD MORNING LOTTOS!!
Sounds like a plan! You and I can bring the wine.
I found it funny that during Sandy, the weekly new claims SPIKED huge for 2 weeks, yet we finish the month way better than expected. (yep, massaging the numbers) I would expect soem ugly numbers this Thursday, as it looks like companies getting ready to deal with Zero for the next 4 years, and all he brings with it (Obamacare, higher taxes) so employees will be let go.
Good morning Denny. Looks like your boys out in Italy causing problems!
So far so good. Taking a TON of vitamin C, and doing up shakes. Just had a cigar with the old man, had to do a 'meeting' I could almost taste the cigar!
OK, going off to check what the market has been doing since I have been gone.
Well look at that, NOW THE RUSSIANS ARE EASING!!
Yep, the whole world heading to hell in a handbasket.
Russia Cuts Ruble Swap Rate in Pivot Toward Easing
By Scott Rose and Olga Tanas - Dec 10, 2012
Russia, the largest emerging economy to raise rates in 2012, took a step toward the first round of monetary easing in a year after the economy slowed and inflation stabilized.
Bank Rossii cut the cost to swap foreign currency into rubles by a quarter point to 6.5 percent, the Moscow-based central bank said in a statement on its website today. The regulator raised the deposit rate to 4.5 percent from 4.25 percent, effective tomorrow, and left its main lending rates unchanged, calling the moves “neutral” for monetary policy.
Central bank Chairman Sergei Ignatiev is moving to relax borrowing costs three months after increasing all 21 rates in his toolkit to fight the fastest inflation this year. Policy makers said money-market rates are “acceptable for the nearest future” for the first time since July.
“If anything, it’s probably more easing of monetary policy than tightening,” said Vladimir Osakovskiy, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Moscow. “Now the effective rate on the money market is 6.5 percent. When there’s a liquidity shortage, lowering the rate on swaps is more relevant to the market than raising deposit rates.”
Three-month borrowing costs may fall 37 basis points, or 0.37 percentage point, in the next three months, the biggest decline predicted by traders in more than three years, according to forward-rate agreements tracked by Bloomberg. That compares with a jump of as much as 54 basis points forecast on May 17.
Currency Swaps
Policy makers held the refinancing rate at 8.25 percent and the main short-term repurchase rates at 5.5 percent. The central bank last cut the rate on currency swaps from 8 percent in June, and First Deputy Chairman Alexey Ulyukayev said last month that the rate may be lowered again to offer liquidity when the ruble comes under pressure.
MORE - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-10/russia-unexpectedly-raises-deposit-rate-cuts-ruble-swap-costs.html
Italian Political Turmoil Weighs on Markets
By DAVID JOLLY
PARIS — Italian stocks led major European indexes lower on Monday after a weekend of political turmoil in Italy gave rise to fears that the country was headed for renewed instability.
Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he would again seek Italy’s highest office, leading Mario Monti, the unelected official who currently holds the office, to say he would step down.
Mr. Monti has restored Italy’s credibility with investors, giving the country a break on its borrowing costs. But those gains have come at the cost of painful austerity measures that have worsened the country's economic situation, and given Mr. Berlusconi an opening to attack.
Mr. Monti will leave after Parliament passes a budget this month and may contest national elections in February or March against Mr. Berlusconi.
The coming Italian election “remains high on our list of tail risks for 2013,” Holger Schmieding, an economist in London with Berenberg Bank, said in a research note. “A Berlusconi campaign against ‘German austerity’ could potentially unsettle markets,” he noted, and possibly push Spain or Italy into a bailout and additional bond purchases by the European Central Bank to hold down borrowing costs.
The Milan benchmark MIB index was down 3.5 percent during the European morning, with trading halted in the shares of two banks, Monte Paschi and Banca Popolare di Milano, after they fell by their maximum daily limit.
The yield gap, or spread, between Italian 10-year sovereign bonds and equivalent German securities, the European benchmark for safety, grew to 3.54 percentage points from 3.25 points late Friday, suggesting that investors were growing more wary of holding Italian debt.
A barometer of euro zone blue-chip stocks, the Euro Stoxx 50 index, fell 0.9 percent. The euro was little changed from its levels in New York Friday, at $1.2902.
Spanish bonds also came under renewed pressure following Mr. Monti’s announcement, with the risk premium demanded by investors for holding Spanish 10-year bonds rather than equivalent German bonds rising to 4.35 percentage points on Monday morning, from 4.16 points on Friday.
Luís de Guindos, the economy minister, warned that Italy’s political turmoil would have an impact on Spain. “When doubts emerge over the stability of a neighboring country like Italy, which is also seen as vulnerable, there’s an immediate contagion for us,” he said Monday morning on Spanish national radio.
Asked whether Spain would itself seek further European rescue funding, the minister instead said that “the help that Spain needs is that the doubts over the future of the euro be removed.”
Raphael Minder contributed from Madrid.
<ritholtz>Chart Gazing http://t.co/b92aFHD1
Good morning Stuff! Looks like it is going to be an exciting week. Futures RED right now, but plenty of time for it to turn around. (Though I don't think it will!)
Gold: It's the end of the world as we know it
By Ben Rooney @CNNMoneyInvestDecember 10, 2012: 5:17 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The end is nigh, according to the Mayan Calendar. That's bullish for gold, right?
Apparently not.
For now, investors are more concerned about taxes going up next year than they are about a potential doomsday on Dec. 21, 2012.
"Not knowing what the tax landscape will be like next year is causing many investors to cash in now," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group.
Gold prices have tumbled from a high near $1,800 an ounce in early October to below $1,700 an ounce last week.
While most investors anticipate lawmakers will reach a compromise on the looming fiscal cliff, taxes on capital gains and dividend payments are widely expected to go up regardless.
By exiting their gold positions this year, investors hope to avoid paying those taxes.
But the fear of higher taxes is so powerful that investors are overlooking some positive fundamental factors, said Cordier.
The depreciating U.S. dollar, for one, should be giving gold prices a boost. Since the metal is priced in U.S. dollars around the world, a weaker dollar makes gold futures more attractive to foreign buyers.
Then there's the matter of all the economic and geopolitical uncertainty plaguing the markets right now.
Gold is a tangible asset that should hold its value when other assets, such as stocks, get hit by market volatility. As such, it tends to attract investors during times of uncertainty.
With that in mind, analysts say gold prices could rebound early next year if President Obama and lawmakers in Congress send the economy over the fiscal cliff.
Related: Gold bugs love fiscal cliff fears
Gold is also expected to benefit from record low interest rates in the first half of next year.
The Federal Reserve has maintained a zero interest rate policy for years and is expected to announce additional asset purchases to keep rates low when it meets this week. That will continue to provide "fundamental support" for gold in 2013, according to a recent report from Pavilion Global Markets.
"We believe that gold is increasingly used as an instrument to play monetary policy and interest rates," wrote Pavilion analysts. "As rates fall, gold becomes 'less expensive,' and thus, more attractive."
MORE - http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/10/investing/gold-prices/index.html?section=money_markets&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_markets+%28Markets%29
German Stocks Decline on Monti Exit, Greek Buyback Delay
By Namitha Jagadeesh - Dec 10, 2012
German stocks declined for a second day as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said he plans to resign and Greece extended the deadline on a bond buyback offer.
Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) and Commerzbank AG (CBK), Germany’s biggest banks, dropped at least 2 percent. RWE AG (RWE) lost 1.5 percent after Bank of America Corp. recommended investors sell the shares. Curanum AG (BHS) jumped the most in five months after French rival Korian made a bid on the company.
The DAX (DAX) slipped 0.5 percent to 7,483.52 at 10:28 a.m. in Frankfurt. The gauge has still rallied 25 percent from its low on June 5 as European Central Bank policy makers agreed on an unlimited bond-purchase program and the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing. The broader HDAX Index also dropped 0.5 percent today.
Monti said he plans to resign after losing support in Parliament, while his predecessor Silvio Berlusconi intends to seek a return to power. Monti will try to win the approval of his coalition partners, including Berlusconi’s People of Liberty Party, for a vote to pass the budget before resigning, President Giorgio Napolitano’s office said in a statement on Dec. 8.
Greece extended a deadline to spend 10 billion euros ($12.9 billion) buying back sovereign debt until midday tomorrow, according to the country’s Public Debt Management Agency. The indebted nation was close to reaching its target in a program aimed at winning aid from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, an official at the Greek Finance Ministry said yesterday on condition of anonymity.
Banks Fall
Deutsche Bank slid 2.1 percent to 33.83 euros and Commerzbank retreated 2.8 percent to 1.36 euros. A gauge of banks contributed the most to the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s decline today.
Deutsche Bank Chairman Paul Achleitner will investigate former employees’ allegations of false accounting, Der Spiegel reported on Dec. 9 without saying where it got the information.
MORE - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-10/german-stocks-decline-on-monti-exit-greek-buyback-delay.html
Another one that just looks tired is AMZN. I would fade any pops. COMCAST came out with a good number for online shopping, but AMZN just doesn't make the kind of profit yet. Right now the PE is over 3500!! Again, fiscal cliff time, this will sell off for taxes, like AAPL, which is a MUCH better company that actually makes HUGE profits. Little gap at about $240, where I would put Puts.
Another one that just looks tired is AMZN. I would fade any pops. COMCAST came out with a good number for online shopping, but AMZN just doesn't make the kind of profit yet. Right now the PE is over 3500!! Again, fiscal cliff time, this will sell off for taxes, like AAPL, which is a MUCH better company that actually makes HUGE profits. Little gap at about $240, where I would put Puts.
Will be interesting to see if the Fed does MORE QE, now that Twist is coming to an end. They will go with the fact that unemployment is getting better, so it behooves them to continue and bring it down even MORE, even though their policies have NOTHING to do with it.
Thanks again Brad. Glad people use this board for info and ideas, what we are here for!
LOL, we JUST got in another monster box of smokes from some group in the states. We are drowning in smokes, and it is awesome. Smoked up a few different Caos last week. Once I am healthy again, I have some Acids to try.
Thanks Chi. I like that kind of stuff. I may have been even MORE lucid were my head not so damn stuffed up. Got a nasty flu or something out here, something going around, and we ALL had our damn flu shot!
Watching things currently in the Eurozone. EURUSD fighting at 1.29 right now. A big MESS over there, as we got here. Let's see what the geniuses from Washington bring us today.
Japan economic data revision suggests recession
10 December 2012 Last updated at 08:08 GMT
Japanese carmakers have seen their sales in China slide after the anti-Japan protests
Revised growth figures for Japan have suggested that the world's third-largest economy is in recession.
The economy shrank by 0.9% in the July-September quarter, while the April-June quarter was revised from 0.1% growth to show a contraction of 0.03%.
That means that Japan is technically in recession, having contracted for two quarters in a row.
Japan has been hit hard by a strong yen that dents exports and a diplomatic row with major trade partner China.
Despite the figures pointing to a recession, the Japanese government, the official arbiter of such matters, has urged caution on interpreting the figures.
Tomo Kinoshita, chief economist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, said: "We had already said Japan was in a recession. Today's number strengthened our case."
During the third quarter, Japan shrank by the equivalent to an annualised drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.5%.
Economic woes
Japan's economy has been trying to recover from last year's earthquake and tsunami, which caused widespread destruction in the country.
However, its recovery has been hampered by a combination of factors.
A slowdown in key markets, such as the US and eurozone has hurt demand for its exports, one of the biggest drivers of Japanese growth.
Slowing growth and anti-Japan protests in China - Japan's biggest trading partner - have also affected its export sector.
To add to its woes, the debt crisis in the eurozone and weak recovery in the US have seen many investors flock to haven assets such as the yen, resulting in the Japanese currency strengthening against the US dollar and the euro.
Last month, Japanese lawmakers approved another stimulus package to revive growth, as the flagging economy becomes a key issue in the upcoming general election.
The money, totalling 880bn yen ($10.7bn; £6.7bn), will be used mainly to create employment and support small businesses, the cabinet said.
The central bank is also carrying out an asset purchase programme whereby it buys bonds to keep long-term borrowing costs down.
European Stocks Decline on Monti Resignation Plan
By Tom Stoukas - Dec 10, 2012
European stocks fell from an 18- month high as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti’s intended resignation and a delayed Greek bond buyback reignited concern about the debt crisis. U.S. futures and Asian shares fluctuated.
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA led a gauge of banks lower, sliding 4.6 percent. RWE AG (RWE) dropped 1.1 percent as Bank of America Corp. downgraded the German utility. STMicroelectronics NV climbed 6 percent in Paris after saying it will exit its joint venture with Ericsson AB.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) declined 0.2 percent to 278.54 at 8:05 a.m. in London. The gauge has still increased 14 percent this year as the European Central Bank pledged to buy the bonds of nations who seek aid and confidence grew that U.S. lawmakers will avoid a looming fiscal deadlock.
“The political situation in Italy may temper” investor confidence, Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney, wrote in e-mailed comments. “The prospect of an election next year being fought on the issue of fiscal policy will be unsettling for bond and equity markets.”
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.1 percent today, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced less than 0.1 percent.
Monti said he intends to resign after losing support in Parliament while his predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi, announced plans for a return to power after a six-week retirement from politics. Monti will try to corral his coalition, which includes Berlusconi’s People of Liberty Party, for a vote to pass the budget before handing in his “irrevocable resignation,” President Giorgio Napolitano’s office said on Dec. 8.
Monti Undecided
Monti, an unelected technocrat, is undecided about whether to run a campaign for a second term, la Repubblica reported, citing a telephone call with the premier.
His resignation announcement comes ahead of a Dec. 13-14 summit of European Union leaders to debate a road map for the overhaul of the euro area, including increased powers to intervene in national budgets and the establishment of a single banking supervisor.
Greece extended a deadline to spend 10 billion euros ($13 billion) buying back sovereign debt until midday London time tomorrow. The nation was near to reaching the target in a program that will unlock aid from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, a Greek government official said earlier.
China Economy
China’s industrial output and retail sales exceeded forecasts last month. Factory production climbed 10.1 percent in November from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday, compared with the 9.8 percent median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Retail sales growth was 14.9 percent.
MORE - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-10/european-stock-futures-are-little-changed-on-chinese-data.html
LOL, good work Brad. Just back from lunch and dropped it.
Thanks, but this board is for BIG BOARD STOCKS, and NO PINKS or anything under .000000005
CRM looks to be setting up nicely for a short. The insiders are selling like crazy, probably laughing all the way to the bank. It may have $160 or more in it. Would look to play puts at that level. In this market environment, overprices and overvalued crap like this will be first to fall, and fall hard.