watching biotechs, gold & silver
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Aiming: You said: >>Anyone else have a guess as to what COR will do if the IND is approved?<<
Excellent question- I'm thinking it should achieve close to the old high (in market cap) but I'm wondering what price level that would equate to today?
Has anyone posted the calculations since the last 2 PIPE's?
I'm wondering what the numbers of shares were/are before and after the last 2 PIPE's, both actual and fully diluted (including the warrants)?
Has this info been posted?
TIA
Neuro- Thank you for the history recap re COR's ADHD AD BP developments.
This would seem to bode well for COR's Respiratory Depression candidates
>>U.S. reports of drug reactions triple
By Lindsey Tanner, AP Medical Writer | September 11, 2007
CHICAGO --Reports of dangerous side effects and deaths from widely used medicines almost tripled between 1998 and 2005, an analysis of U.S. drug data found.
The number of deaths and serious injuries from prescription and over-the-counter drugs climbed from 34,966 to 89,842 during the study of reports to the Food and Drug Administration.
Potent narcotic painkillers including Oxycontin, sold generically as oxycodone, were among 15 drugs most often linked with deaths in the study. Drugs frequently linked with serious nonfatal complications included insulin, the arthritis drugs Vioxx and Remicade, and the antidepressant Paxil.
The report adds to recent criticism of FDA oversight on drug safety, including its handling of serious problems connected with Vioxx, which was removed from the market in 2004.
"This growing toll of serious injury shows that the existing system is not adequately protecting patients and underscores the importance of recent reports urging far-reaching legislative, policy and institutional changes," the authors said.
The analysis appears in this week's issue of Archives of Internal Medicine. Its authors are Thomas Moore and Michael Cohen of the Institute for Safe Medication Practices, a nonprofit educational group that analyzes drug safety issues; and Dr. Curt Furberg of Wake Forest University School of Medicine.
They analyzed excerpts of reports on serious side effects received by the FDA between January 1998 and December 2005. A total of 467,809 serious complications were found. Reported deaths nearly tripled, rising from 5,519 to 15,107.
A disproportionate number of complications occurred in elderly patients. Women were more often victims than men, 55.5 percent compared to 45.5 percent. Children were involved in 7.4 percent of the problems.
The FDA issued a statement saying it is aware of the growing number of reported problems and takes them seriously, but the reason for the increase "is not completely known."
"While some of this has to do with the increasing number of prescriptions, there are clearly other factors responsible for this increase, such as the increase in public attention to drug safety, and use of the Internet to make it easier for the public to submit," Dr. Gerald Dal Pan of the FDA's surveillance and epidemiology office said in the statement.
Sen. Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican and frequent FDA critic, said the report is another indication that the FDA's review of drugs already on the market "must be rigorous and timely."<<
http://www.boston.com/yourlife/health/other/articles/2007/09/11/us_reports_of_drug_reactions_triple/
------
>>Keep in mind the deal Cortex 'almost' inked prior to the hold being issued was not for ADHD. It was for AD.<<
??? Are you 100% on this?
Seems startling, at minimum.
If true, then why didn't price spike and stay up recently, in anticipation of a rapid BP deal for AD?
Why then all the angst re the IND for ADHD?
Also, wouldn't the assumed quick BP deal for AD make this last funding round completely unnecessary?
I don't think there is any BP deal coming for AD anytime soon, nor is one anticipated- I think it's all about ADHD.
I've been under the impression (mis-impression?) that the price spike in March of '06 was exclusively due to the unusually good ADHD results and highly anticipated BP deal.
I also understand that much sought after COR BP deal can't happen until COR gets the official go-ahead from the FDA for further ADHD trials,
Can anyone clarify?
TIA
>>I will just laugh and move on
to another blue chipper like, say, IDMI.<<
That's pretty weird- So in California, the machines that grind up trees into sawdust are painted blue?
Our's are orange, which is almost red, as in "red states and blue states"- Republicans and Democrats.
cheers
What was Stoll thinking?
If you listened to the webcast, please keep reading:
This statement by Stoll puzzles me- wondering how the board perceived this-
In his summary at the end of the webcast, Stoll remarked that he hoped that COR had the right management team in place.
Was he serious, attempting to be humorous, or ???
Appreciate your take on it.
Seemed weird somehow.
TIA for any feedback/inputs
and if that link doesn't connect you directly, here's the sign in page-
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth13/register.aspx?conf=roth13&page=index&url=http%3A//www.wsw....
>>Cortex's Slide 6 has the CX1763 numbers transposed.<<
Good eyes!
The slide can't refer to a Motorcraft CX1673 Vapor Canister Purge Solenoid
Do you see the controls for the media on the left side?
It says "Wall Steet Webcasting" underneath
Is your speaker turned on (not muted)? Is the volume level high enough?
You have to change the slides manually (mouse) (on the bottom right)
4:31 PM- They are re-playing it now
>> Windhover wanted only new partnering opportunities (not the ones from last year)<<
I'm wondering how many of the 10 from last year were successfully partnered?
Maybe you already know- if not, is last year's list available somewhere?
Thinking it might be an interesting exercise.
TIA
COR is Project #10 in this listing
Windhover's Top 10 unpartnered projects
October 24-26 in Philly
Neuroscience Top 10
Analyst: Harry Tracy
President / NI Research
http://www.windhover.com/ezine/html/TA07prjcts.htm?&utm_source=TA07agenda
OT- >>(i hope somebody is getting my material)<<
When they don't, doesn't that really get your goat?
They were considering sacrificing rabbits, but the cereal they were using as a lure wasn't working, and as we all know "Trix are for kids!"
I know.........I know......probably should have resisted
cheers
Gfp- Bon voyage, Bon chance
Assuming you've been to Katmandu?
News story today:
>> Airline sacrifices goats to appease sky god
Tue Sep 4, 3:41 PM ET
KATHMANDU (Reuters) - Officials at Nepal's state-run airline have sacrificed two goats to appease Akash Bhairab, the Hindu sky god, following technical problems with one of its Boeing 757 aircraft, the carrier said Tuesday.
Nepal Airlines, which has two Boeing aircraft, has had to suspend some services in recent weeks due the problem.
The goats were sacrificed in front of the troublesome aircraft Sunday at Nepal's only international airport in Kathmandu in accordance with Hindu traditions, an official said.
"The snag in the plane has now been fixed and the aircraft has resumed its flights," said Raju K.C., a senior airline official, without explaining what the problem had been.
Local media last week blamed the company's woes on an electrical fault. The carrier runs international flights to five cities in Asia.
It is common in Nepal to sacrifice animals like goats and buffaloes to appease different Hindu deities.<<
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070904/od_nm/nepal_airline_odd_dc
gfp- those are excellent quotes-
Very interesting stuff- thanks for digging them up.
They are kind of like an appetizer- leaving a thirst for more.
Any chance you can post the links to each quote?
I would like to read the complete discussion, etc. on this very important subject re the IND approval
TIA
money4retirement- The only silver bullet I've found is the one made by Coors. It would be nice to find one for Cortex.
And I thought werewolves were only a muggle superstition?
cheers
RBlatch- Hope- I love that word- springs eternal
>>Better luck to us all regarding timing the next time we are running out of cash.<<
Luck is another good thought- If we're really lucky we'll get a mega-deal (relatively) and not need another go-around with the mercenaries for a couple years.
cheers
RBlatch- I'm using "imminent" as "immediate"
my Mea Culpa is in this post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22518174
I like Neuro's phrase (prior post): "cognitive flexibility"
BTW, did you change your view expressed here- (it sounds like you agree with me)
>> Let's just hope we can stay away from doing a PIPE until north of $4 or $5.00.<<
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22063095
Re- "incredibly persistent": I plead guilty as charged (dog with a bone).
Thx for not saying "anal"
cheers
Neuro- Got it (big difference). Thanks
Wondering if Ampakines improve reading comprehension?
Neuro- Thanks for taking the time to give the expansive commentary on your current view, especially in light of your deadline looming.
This really surprised me:
>> Stoll had to consider the--30%?-- possibility that Psychiatry would not just rubberstamp the ADHD IND. <<
I was thinking the odds of denial were extremely low, maybe 3% or so, since COR passed the first and toughest hurdle with flying colors.
I also didn't appreciate that COR hasn't had any experience with the Psychiatry Division, owing to the recent split into two within the FDA.
Your points on Stoll's personality and risk aversion are well made- another factor I overlooked in my criticisms.
The simple fact is that I could/should quit ranting and take advantage of what is likely a very temporary price plummet and get almost the same terms as the PIPE by buying more COR, and that's probably what we all should be doing.
Lemonade out of lemons, etc.
Thanks again for your insights.
>>.....we're all sick of the PIPEs and financing deals<<
I'm primarily sick of really bad deals-
The pricing of this latest deal especially hurt- there was no imminent need to sell stock so cheaply.
I accept that COR had to do the prior financing in order to limp through the artifact issue.
It's really hard to see what Stoll was thinking this time around, as the extensive research of recent similar deals done by Neuro showed we received the worst deal of anyone- I think his words were "worse by far".
If Stoll were truly confident in his artifact case, he could have waited post-IND, and likely gotten a substantially higher price.
Even if we buy into the idea that Stoll is just really unlucky and the credit crunch is to blame, it still doesn't explain the poor timing.
How much did COR leave on the table, $5M, $10M, more???
While Stoll's actual salary is somewhat modest for the sector, he's looking incredibly high-priced (overpaid) to me at the moment.
Will Stoll redeem himself with a monster BP deal ($40M+ upfronts, etc.)?
I think he's going to have to do something big to restore confidence that he has the financial abilities COR needs going forward.
I don't really mind if Stoll personally is weak at finance, but then he really needs to find someone who is skilled and give them that task.
ombow- Thanks for asking Stoll about the market size
I imagine it's tough to assess- as GFP said, the acute (vs. chronic) is the first market to go after as that's where the critial need is; ie., where the deaths from severe drug interactions are happening.
But since the drug can't be self-administered via prescription (at least I think), then the vehicle for administration must primarily be Hospital ER's, Ambulance EMT's, etc.
It's probably a difficult job to gather all the data and make projections, but I'm just guessing.
Thanks again for bringing us relevant info
>>They also wanted to provide some reassurance that Ampakines remain the core focus for the company. But I think they are still hoping to find something to inlicense at some point.<<
Neuro- Am I correct thinking that your current position on this issue is neutral; ie., you're reserving judgement until you see whatever it is that COR in-licenses?
I'm sure you will ask as many questions as you can on the upcoming call- if you have the opportunity, I'm hoping you can inquire further about this.
Like many, I'm hoping they go full throttle on the Ampakines exclusively.
TIA
fearfrost- The dreaded monster liveth
>>Cortex said in a release that it expects to use the proceeds to accelerate the development of its AMPAKINE technology, licensing activities, working capital, capital expenditures and other corporate purposes.<<
Or could they be talking about out-licensing only?
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/070830/1513564.html?.v=1
Hopefully, someone will ask about it on the CC.
Respiratory Depression is a potentially big indication..........
Wondering how big this market is? Is it $500M, multi-billion $$$, or ???
TIA
(OT) Myriad doing its statistical analyses after eliminating non-responders. So there seems to be serious questions surrounding Flurizan, and of course AD programs historically have had very low odds of success.
I like MYGN also, but agree their AD drug is likely not going to make it, for the reasons cited. Additionally, the Phase II was ridiculously small, they had to really stretch to justify the P3, which had already started before the P2 ended!
On top of all that, they had to amend the P3 multiple times as well- not really confidence boosters.
But what do you think of Azixa? I'm thinking that one looks promising.
BTW, what do you value their predictive medicine biz at? The way I look at it, you can make a case that currently Flurizan is valued at a very low figure in the market.
I'm thinking their PM biz is worth $30+, they have over $7 in cash, and a bunch of other stuff worth at least $10.
But as we all know, if/when Flurizan bites the dust, the stock will take a big hit anyway- the tau of the bio world.
....sell half after the first split.
The only glitch might be that the way we're going with Stoll the serial diluter at the helm, is that the first split might be a reverse one.
When (if?) a couple more financings happen, the warrants are all called in (if, again), the total number of shares outstanding might require a 1 for 5 reverse split, or something similar.
Have to hope for huge upfronts ($40M+) from a BP deal to avoid another reverse split, imo.
I've reluctantly revised my initial antipathy as well.
Plus, you're backing it by stepping into the market (or at least you were) @ the $1.79 area.
I'm on the fence (gun shy, post-beating) but if all is well (no in-license) COR probably zooms back to $2.50 after the CC.
Does the credit crunch also likely mean bio upfronts and milestones will take a beating going forward?
The bio deals since January generally seem much richer than a year ago- I was hoping the $30M upfronts COR wanted in the past would translate into $40M or so today.
Remember, we dump the shares for a quick pop and keep the warrants. Can't lose.
Maybe, but it might not be as profitable as you think- consider laker9029's post from yesterday- it appears there was no time to "short against the box" and lock-in substantial gains.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22435705
What would the new warrants be worth if they were tradeable? I'm guessing around 25 cents each, but we can buy COR today at $1.75, which appears to be the same deal the PIPER's are getting (shares @ 1.75 plus a 25 cent warrant).
Ombow- thanks for emailing Stoll and for posting his replies.
You get high marks for persisting in trying to help us despite receiving the occasional beatings meted out here, most of which appear to fall into the "No good deed goes unpunished" category.
Stoll seems overly defensive about the financing terms- so I'm reasonably confident the feedback he's receiving is pretty negative across the board.
If the terms were the best that could be attained, then the timing of this PIPE seems even more suspect.
Why the sense of urgency when the price would be much higher with a favorable IND filing and subsequent BP deal?
I can't think of any other reason for needing immediate cash unless he's intent on buying something, and I really hope I'm wrong about that.
No one can really how to assess the overall picture until the CC, when we'll learn what Stoll plans to do with the $13+M.
They're equally unhappy on the SI board, castigating Stoll but giving high praise to Dr. Tracy.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=3299
Thanks again for the valuable inputs
How can R&R do this? Is this ethical/legal?
Rodman knows they're about to sell COR shares at $2, when on Aug. 22 (Wednesday) they tout COR as a "Top Pick" and list it's price at $2.62 with a $4.50 target.
Who was this release intended for? If anyone acted on it, I would assume they feel they were deceived/cheated, etc.
Still trying to get a handle on this travesty- find it hard to believe what apparently qualifies as reputable "analysis" in the equity world.
This whole deal looks sleazy.
Stoll has always seemed honest, but I can't help but think that he must have needed many showers in order to do this deal.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22338259
laker- thanks for the explanation.
Any idea where the 7M new $2 shares will start looking for an exit, or what the average exit price will be?
Technically, 2.09 looks like the upside resistance.
Is it easy to explain how you come up with the $2.09?
If it's difficult, no problem- I'm just curious.
I'm guessing you're doing something with volume and price averages to come up with it.
.....on any good news, we will bounce at least to $2.09.
If it's going to take good news to bounce to $2.09, then we're all in more trouble than we realize.
Assuming the financing proceeds are not going to be blown on an in-licensing, I would think the good news of a IND filing would bring COR above $3 and a BP deal would get us past $5, even with these last 2 painful dilutions.
Aiming4- No sweat. Your explanation makes perfect sense-;ie., COR can't do a debt financing because they don't have enough assets easily leveraged on favorable terms.
Thanks- I missed Stoll's comments on that issue.
.....these were the worst financing terms obtained by any small neuro company in the past six months, and by far.
Very powerful statement based on a very powerful case that you laid out- excellent job illustrating all the recent Neuroscience offerings.
I know it's unrealistic, but is it unfair to ask Stoll to share some of the pain for this horrendous mis-step on his part?
I'm thinking he should surrender a million or so of his freebie options for having blundered so badly.
Aiming4- My question wasn't about the timing, which seems very poor in itself.
It was about the vehicle for the financing; ie., WMG was promoting the idea of taking on debt vs. a PIPE in order to avoid further dilution.
I'm just wondering why he apparently no longer favors the debt idea.
Re what seems like atrocious timing of this, I'm hoping it doesn't portend the dreaded in-license of some BP reject crappy compound, as in "We found a dream compound and had to act fast", etc.
Why did you change your mind? At $3+ to $5 or so, a financing makes more sense, but at $2 it seems like another giveaway to Rodman.
Last October you said:
>>STOLL- Take on debt in lieu of dilution...
Yes, debt is risky for developing stage companies, but not in this case..COR should obtain $20-30 million mid-term loan and pay it off with Big Pharma upfront proceeds and/or equity purchase at much higher prices or wait to do a secondary at higher prices after the Big Pharma deal is concluded. The loan proceeds would give COR the strength from which to negotiate a better deal with the pharma companies.
In no way should COR issue a secondary offer prior to the Big Pharma deal...that would be very unwise.<<
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13884882
and also, when a "development partner" (most likely a BP in this case) makes an equity buy-in, they usually pay a substantial premium to the current stock price.
The steep discounts seem to be reserved for PIPE transactions.
PATCO- "Something ain't right"
You and the PIPERS were correct- burned again
In mere seconds my dream of a new BMW has morphed into a $500 beater, complete with Firestone 500 tires (all bald), leaking oil, in need of a valve job......and those are the best features.
Don't bet on me anymore- go with your instincts (they're better)
cheers anyway
Time to replenish the beer supply- long weekend ahead
The July press release specifically said that Neurology hadn't yet completed their full review of the new tox data.
Doesn't the Occam's Razor corollary fit here? As Neuro and others proffered, this sounds like pure legaleese from the FDA chapter on how to "CYA".
I'm reading it as the FDA saying there's no problem with CX717; it's clearly an artifact........but just in case, we reserve the right to find a problem later.
I think Neurology is done with it and have given it their blessing; ie., there isn't going to be a "last word" from them.
We'll know shortly.