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Nice day today....
There was two more stocks that came up on the screening, ESST which stopped me out last week, and KKD, which also screened out a couple weeks ago. The market risk is still high, though it looks like another bounce tomorrow, so I don't expect to enter any short term trades.
Interestingly, they said on the news today that Wyoming is scheduled to get a Krispy Kreme, maybe I'll get to try one yet <g
Sam
I like ABS chart, I hadn't looked at it for months. I'd expect a chart like that to come up on the screening so I had to look at what might have cut it, it has a negative cash flow per share. If you got in it here on this bounce it looks good to 35.
Sam
I'll do that, I had thought I'd been in Fort Wayne, but I was mistaken. I use to work in DC and commute back out west, but I went the Indianapolis route. Jennifer grew up in Michigan and Ohio, I'd think she has been to Ft. Wayne. She went to a play tonight, I was too pooped to go.....
gezzz sorry, yet I ramble...
Sam
Dang, I have a lot to learn about using IHub. Jennifer send you that ugly picture <g>?
Sam
I do like to hear the CEO is committed to make things happen, nice in these days when the corporate world is getting so much bad press.
Sam
YW? I'm afraid to ask <g>?
Needless to say, AZR stopped today, $22.47 was the exit price.
We added ROXI to our list today, a buy at 19.15 or better, it did hit, the stop is figured at 17.52 and the target of $24.06. I noticed it came up on the screening again this evening.
Sam
Ya know....I've been one opposed to the tariffs and know that many in the administration follow my view, just not my advice <g. I contend that when a country dumps steel, we (steel companies) should buy it up and support the price. If they support turn the steel at a price higher than what it was dumped, they support themselves just like they do living in the difference between production costs and price of sales. When the price of oil drops below our production costs, our oil companies buy up all they can get of the cheap foreign oil.
Guess it remains to be seen how it plays out in its affect on STLD, I'd keep the stop at $16.75.
Thanks for posting the info, I had missed it this afternoon.
Sam
Wouldn't ya know that ANN would get upgraded today...<g>
From Briefing:
Morgan Stanley upgrades to OVERWEIGHT from Equal-Weight; believes co is transitioning from a value play to a momentum story, driven by the reaccelerated rollout of the AnnTaylor Loft concept in 2003; comps should improve with easy comparisons at core AnnTaylor until Dec. Raises FY03 est to $2.15 from $2.12 and FY04 to $2.60 from $2.45; price target is $55.
Sam
Thanks MM, If there is ever anything I can explain...or try anyway, just ask away. Often you're not alone when there is a question. I have to admit I was surprised at how much JH dropped at one point today, the positive sigh is that it traded less than average volume today. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
Sam
....and I spent what time I could watching ANN...<g> With that gone I can concentrate on AZR
Sam
I put a buy in for JH at 30.41, it traded up and I canceled the order before it came back down to it. In the end, I only bought the one that stopped out....wouldn't ya know. Things don't looks so good for tomorrow, so I'll re-look at AZR and JH, but don't think I'll buy at this point.
Sam
Sure looks like it may, I got stopped out in when I bought the 43.27 support that I was seening. So it goes...
Thanks EZ, and STLD looks to be in a rising group too, I'd figure the falling dollar should help it.
Sam
Thanks MM, hope you can benefit and contribute <g>.
Sam
For those that keep up with the changes in the markets group strength: http://www.savvy-trader.com/groupstrengthMar22.htm
Sam
Normally I like have a 2 to 1 or better gain/loss risk. In these three stocks ANN is the only one that meets that. And combined (ie buying all three) gives a gain/loss shy of 2 to 1. But buying ANN and one other will meet it, or buying only when you see the stock drop deeper in the buy range without hitting the stop.
Sam
For Monday I have 3 stocks to look at:
ANN has a buy of $43.52, or lower, with a stop at $42.25. I figure the target to be $46.75. This gives a potential gain of $3.23 and a potential loss of $1.27, if the stop is hit.
AZR has a buy of $23.50 or lower, with a stop at $22.47. I figure the target to be $25.26, which gives a potential gain of $1.76 and potential loss of $1.03.
JH has a buy of $31.35 or lower, with a stop at $29.99. I figure the target to be $33.25, which gives a potential gain of $1.90 on the risk of losing $1.36.
But, I also figure the market risk tomorrow to be moderate and at the threshold of becoming high. So this may not be necessarily the best time to add long positions.
Sam
This is how this short term example ends:
On 4/8 there were four positions entered, BMS, MNC, TIF and TTWO. By 4/26 all had hit their target.
BMS up $2.12
MNC up $5.42
TIF up $2.72
TTWO up $2.94
Assuming they all had been bought at the highest buy point, which they all had hit, and sold at the target. It produced 13.2 points gain, or a 9.8% gain on investment during the period. This is above the average to have a 100% success rate...no stops hit and all targets hit. But the risk is pretty well defined before the trades are made, which is more appropriate for folks who can't, or don't want to be, watching a computer screen all day...
Interesting how well this went with the market sliding, the market is a big factor in the risk, and after today we may not have anymore short term trades until we see the balance of buying/selling, our SSRatio, go positive again...assuming that it goes negative after today...I think it will, but haven't run the numbers yet.
Anyway, I hope this has been of value to you folks, at least to look at each trade and think about what the risk is.
Have a good weekend,
Sam
MNC hit its target up $5.52 on the trade, I'll wrap this up after the close, not one stop in the group and nice multiple point gains. Thanks Jenna, I didn't mean to intrude.
Sam
TIF hit its target today +2.82
The short term trading example has only one stock open, MNC.
These all have done very well in a very tough market.
Good Trading!!
Sam
Thanks Ammobox, I've gotten several e-mails from folks who would like to see a different thread. I'll drop you a note.
Sam
Interesting nick, what made you think of that?
I received a PM that asks a valid question, I thought I'd post it here along with my response since there might be others asking the same thing.
[Curiously why don't you start your own thread and stop riding on the coat-tails of someone else. A little hard work and maybe you can develope a following on your own.]
Hi XXXX,
I am considering starting a thread, but really don't want additional work if folks aren't using the information. Regarding the coat-tails, that certainly wasn't the intent, as far as I could tell there was no one posting when I started. And if I hadn't posted would people keep coming back to the thread? If anything, what I contributed should be additive to Jenna's work.
Something else that you probably didn't know, was that I have known Barb (Jenna) for years, and she has often admitted that I played a large part in her success. For some reason I always think that everyone knew that, the years go by <g. There are no coat-tails, we have gone separate directions and both can exist on the same platform.
But, you make a point that several others may feel, and I hate to get something started off in controversy. I would like to finish the example trades, I was hoping there are some that can benefit.
I do appreciate your thoughts.
Sam
I added a position in OVER today at 24, I have mixed feelings about it since it has earnings next week and I don't plan on holding through earnings. But I like risk since it is so close to its base it makes for a favorable risk/reward. We'll see. We had it on our watchlist today http://www.savvy-trader.com
Sam
Thanks George, I was thinking about opening a thread if there was interest, so I don't infringe on Jenna too much.
Sam
It sure was, I underestimated it <g...
Sam
The short-term trading example closed the week:
BMS hit its target price of 56.79 on 4/11 +2.12
TTWO hit its target price of 38.17 on 4/16 +2.94
MNC closed 28.01 (buy was 24.46), the target is 29.88. Position is still open.
TIF closed 36.93 (buy was 35.45), the target is 38.17.
Position is still open.
Sam
The revenue continues strong, up 81%. I was still waiting for it to drop back to enter myself, looks like I'll be waiting a bit longer <g>.
DFXI is one we follow closely since it is among the 20 stocks we track in our weekly newsletter.
Sam
TTWO hit its target price of 38.17 +2.94. MNC and TIF are still active, each just over 1 point from their exit price.
Sam
TTWO was 3 cents short of hitting its target, I suspect tomorrow will close this one....we'll see.
Sam
No additional targets hit today. TTWO is close (22.90), MNC (29.88) and TIF (38.17), are working their way up. I hope this simulation is of use to someone here.
Sam
BMS hit its target for a $2.12 gain, leaves MNC, TIF and TTWO (which was 48 cents shy of its target today).
Sam
BMS was 24 cents short of its target exit price today, I would suspect it will hit tomorrow. All the other positions in this group still look good.
Sam
All the stocks on this are still active, we'll keep watching.
Sam
Sounds like things are going well for you, congratulations.
Sam
All the stocks on this list hit a buy since they traded below the top of the buy range but didn't hit a stop....yet. Except ESST, which opened below the stop, so dealing with that one needs some thought. I'd figure it should be cut from the list, as no trade.
Sam
I hate to see a swing trading thread go unattended so I thought I'd post the risk/reward table for the picks we are watching tomorrow.
Symbol/ Top of buy/ Stop/ Target/ Loss/ Reward/
BMS $54.67 $53.11 $56.79 ($1.56) $2.12
ESST $20.05 $18.78 $24.72 ($1.27) $4.67
MNC $24.46 $23.21 $29.88 ($1.25) $5.42
TIF $35.45 $34.06 $38.17 ($1.39) $2.72
TTWO $19.96 $18.84 $22.90 ($1.12) $2.94
The total portfolio size equals $154.59, Total Pts. at risk equals ($6.59), and the Total points potential is $17.87
The average loss equals ($1.32) and the average gain equals $3.57
Probability Table
0% success rate (all hit stops) = Loss of 6.59 points or 4.26% of investment
20% success rate (one stock hits target the rest stop) = Loss of 1.95 points or 1.26% of investment
40% success rate (two hit target) = Gain of 3.19 points or 2.1% on investment
60% success rate (three hit target) = Gain of 8.07 points or 5.5% on investment
80% success rate (four hit target) = Gain of 12.96 points or 8.4% on investment
100% success rate (all hit target) = Gain of 17.87 points or 11.5% on investment
Hitting 100%, or even 80% is unreasonable, but odds favor 40 or 60% and just 40% yields a gain of 2.1% which isn't bad over a couple weeks period. The assumption being that we are not going to have a sharp correction during that period.
I'll keep track of how this works out.
Sam
Well, if there is a play in OVER it wasn't today. Nothing we watch that is a tech did anything today. Though OVER did trade within the buy range and as long as it doesn't stop out (which I figure is 25.07), its target at 33.80 produces a nice risk/reward.
Sam
OVER came up on our screening tonight, we'll be watching it tomorrow. Maybe there will be a play in it.
Sam