is... watching & waiting
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Weekly screaming $1250, shorter time frames coiling - could see $15 move at 2pm
Political uncertainty should be the phrase of the day
Jumped in at the open - any empty seats left or standing room only?
Good luck fellas
Considering the billions of shares/warrants they're obligated to issue, coupled with their ceasing revenue generating operations, it's more of a non-story now than ever. There's a few retail flipping for ticks, otherwise the ticker is solely about RS, paying off convertible note holders, rinse, repeat two or three times, fold.
Happy trades today
Charles and Michael agreed to put 20M shares in escrow to be returned [incentivized] if they were able to get the ticker listed on a major exchange - they didn't, therefore the shares were cancelled.
If there were ever a day for the fear index to pop ...
Noteworthy hourly candle
Tim Evans of Citi Futures Perspective calculated a withdrawal of 128 Bcf for the week ending Jan. 20, and by Feb. 10 predicted storage would be only 33 Bcf less than the five-year average.
...
Thursday's EIA report is expected to show withdrawals far below seasonal averages as recent mild weather gets factored in. Last year a stout 202 Bcf were withdrawn and the five-year pace stands at a 176 Bcf pull. Ritterbusch and Associates calculated a 102 Bcf withdrawal, and Raymond James is expecting a 122 Bcf decline. A Reuters poll of 18 traders and analysts revealed an average 117 Bcf withdrawal with a range of -102 Bcf to -135 Bcf.
Lots of walking to end where she started
Gave up on $3.35, $3.3 should stand tall given this morning's action
Overnight weather models came in mostly milder, but forecasters admit to conflicted model interpretations and a highly variable weather landscape.
"Changes were mostly in the down direction [Wednesday] morning regarding the demand situation, with warmer short- to medium-range changes for the Midwest, East, South with very slightly colder West adjustments," said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group. "The American [ensemble] is colder toward the East Coast than the European [ensemble] for the six-10 day, while the European is warmer in the Midcontinent than the American.
"We like a split down the middle that amplifies both sides in this variable pattern situation. Otherwise, the 11-15 day continues to be a big mess, too, with the American ensemble showing cold from Chicago to New York and the European holding a warm lean for these same areas (the Canadian is in the middle of them both)."
Uncertainty rules the day ... basing $3.3 doing a heck of a number to squeeze me out, clinging to 1h resistance
Market expectations for the withdrawal are in the 115-128 Bcf range, notably lower than last week's 243-Bcf withdrawal as well as the five-year average withdrawal of 176 Bcf. S&P Global Platts releases its official estimates on Wednesday.
Even if we do see a withdrawal in this range, "it would be hard to break through to the downside, because production is holding steady," Jeff Richtor, a principal at EnergyGPS, said in an interview Tuesday.
Oh to the good 'ol days ... $2-$3.5 handles before RS, melted to $17-$18 if I recall, triple digits shortly thereafter, very lucrative... could've made FU money
No bid/ask but Vol at 126 ... Not sure what to do with those? I don't have enough to cover commission trading at a nickle.
Line in the sand $0.6 BLOZF - ask dominating bid in recent sessions, otherwise I'd be looking to add.
Happy trading Shell
15m trying to draw line in the sand at $3.25
Edit: fail ... should've taken $4.3 pm and reload - hindsight's a witch
Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to weekly storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a draw in a range between 105 and 117 billion cubic feet in the week ended January 20.
Thought I'd find some double digit predictions but no luck thus far this am. Saw a mention of Trump's action plan for the EPA on Twitter listing one of the initiatives he plans to stop being the Clean Air Act greenhouse gas regulations for new and existing coal and natural gas power plants. Not sure how to fully assess impact, but sincerely hope he doesn't become a factor in NG's winter - it's unpredictable enough.
The Desk in its Early View survey of the week's storage report shows expectations to be far below historical norms. From a sample of 12 traders and analysts the average was 112 Bcf, well below last year's 202 Bcf and a five-year average of 176 Bcf.
Bouncing into open - sitting on hands for now, not sure next week's report will be as bearish as originally anticipated - will be all cash before eob Fri
Good luck all
30m/1h approaching support, 5h trying to flush - $3.10 where are you, D bidding $4.3
Storage draws for 1/20 and 1/27 will bring storage back to a surplus to the average, but that won't last long with normal weather conditions to start the first week of Feb.
Out of all the weeks, 1/27 is expected to be the most bearish and to produce a storage draw that's 70 Bcf lower than the average.
Thomson Reuters projected US gas demand would fall from an average of 112.0 billion cubic feet per day last week to 96.0 bcfd this week and 89.7 bcfd next week as the weather moderates and the power sector uses less of the fuel.
The March natural gas market closed in a weak position on the charts. The downside momentum into the close is likely to lead to a break into a potential support price at $3.170. This is followed by a main bottom at $3.110. The daily chart opens up to the downside under this price.
On the upside, the first key number to overcome is $3.296. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $3.469, $3.489 and $3.554.
The trend is down on the weekly chart. Buyers would have to take out $3.828 to turn the main trend to up.
The weak close suggests this market is headed lower this week unless there is a turnaround in the weather. According to natgasweather.com, natural gas demand will be low to very low the next 7 days. Some traders are saying there is a massive arctic air mass building in northern Canada. If this mass begins to work into the U.S. then we could see a short-covering rally. If it lingers after reaching the states then we could see another spike to the upside. This weather system is likely to determine the direction of the natural gas market over the next two weeks.
Keep talking to her
I'm holding - enjoy the weekend gentlemen
Breaking down - $3.21 will help
Bounced hard off $3.25 - wanted nothing to do with it
Off 3% early bounced off $3.25 - D $4 handle, everyone in green this am
Happy trading fellas
Perhaps the euphoria is over ... 45 minutes before last weeks #'s they're concerned with next weeks'? $3.21 -$3.10 Feb seems doable.
Any consideration of seeing $2 handle March contract?
Still holding U?
Left some money at the table
BTFD kinda open - exited D may repeat last week and re-enter post-report
Good luck fellas
Going to need a significant change in weather forecasts for bulls to keep daily from rolling $3.17-$3.25 in sight. Would like to cash out +$4.3 but not sure I want to hang around for a 200 number tomorrow.
Good luck all
$3.35 broke - D eyeing $4 handle
For the week ended January 13, analysts forecast stockpiles will fall by 194 bcf, topping the 170 bcf decline seen during the same week a year ago and the five-year average draw of 175 for that week.
Thomson Reuters estimated US gas demand would fall to 91.2 billion cubic feet per day next week and 90.3 bcfd in two weeks as the weather moderates from an average of 111.9 bcfd this week.
http://www.brecorder.com/fuel-a-energy/193/124630/
SA article calling for a more robust report this week but in future projections on par or just falling slightly short of 5y avg...
Looking further out, the year-over-year storage comparisons to be reported are currently likely to fall short of last year's draw, as well as the 5-year average. Specifically, the market expectations for the 5 weeks ending February 10th is a draw of 737 bcf, compared to 774 last year and 806 over the past 5 years, on average.
Storage Changes
1/13/2017
-235
1/20/2017
-102
1/27/2017
-110
2/3/2017
-140
2/10/2017
-150
4h breaking down
Short sleeves on the kawasaki into work ... Tampa touching 80 today.
$3.35 test would give us a better picture ... if the market closes its eyes for two weeks and chops sideways D position may have to get nixed
Good luck all
Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to weekly storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a draw in a range between 220 and 230 billion cubic feet in the week ended January 13.
That compares with a withdrawal of 151 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, 178 billion a year earlier and a five-year average drop of 170 billion cubic feet.
The natural gas markets fell initially on Friday but turned around to form a massive hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign, and we are oversold at the moment. At the $3.50 level is the bottom of the massive gap that send this market lower, so that’s the beginning of massive resistance. Because of this, I feel that short-term traders might be able to take advantage of this bounce, but I’m a little bit more comfortable waiting for an exhaustive daily candle that I can start selling as the gap was so vicious. Natural gas markets will continue to suffer at the hands of warmer weather in the northeastern corridor of the United States, which of course is the largest consumer of natural gas in the world.
Alternately, if we break down below the bottom of the hammer that form during the day on Friday could be a signal that were going to go back down towards the $3.15 level. Either way, I do believe longer-term we are dropping.
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2017/01/wti-crude-oil-and-natural-gas-forecast-january-16-2017/70753
Never been more happy US Market's are closed
Meteorologists projected temperatures would remain warmer than normal for the rest of January, February and March, making this winter (November-March) warmer than both the 10- and 30-year averages, but cooler than last year's record warm levels. After a cold start to this week, Thomson Reuters estimated US gas demand would rise to an average of 112.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from 101.3 bcfd last week, before falling to 91.3 bcfd next week on more moderate temperatures.
http://www.brecorder.com/fuel-a-energy/193/123886/