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Mog,
9m Shares dumped, but picked up by other funds...what goes around comes around....so please stop your panic tactics...all the board know you by now
I am sure you added some short position last week, good luck not burning in a random night or day. Frankly in wouldn't feel sorry for you, not even a tiny bit of sympathy after your illogical statements all week long and same repetition all over again
+ I asked you few questions long time ago, still didn't hear back from you...must be a heavy google work your doing even though it wasn't that hard...remember, the valuation of the company, banks' example, price to book value valuation....etc
Glad i didn't block you, coz i have a laugh reading your posts and enjoy replying when i am in the mood and have some free time
lbw,
Just a simple simulation based on the numbers from the previous years...i attached it via the following link;
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7WnFqUm1BWUp0TW8/view
Bio, My pleasure
Well based on the table i have and the graphs,i ran through the numbers from 2013 & 2014 {Thanksgiving period (ie next week) & the week that follows it}...we should reach 16,125 in the week ending 04-Dec-2015 (taking a conservative approach)
Scripts Update for Week ending 20/11
V
TRx: 14,892 {vs 14,821; +0.49%} Sector +0.54% -- ATH
NRx: 6,514 {vs 6,478; +0.56%} Sector +0.05% -- ATH
Ref: 8,378 {vs 8,342; +0.43%} Sector +0.86%
L
TRx: 4,020 {vs 3,992; +0.70%}
NRx: 1,322 {vs 1,464; -9.70%}
GenL
TRx: 69,861 {vs 69,484; +0.54%}
NRx: 27,113 {vs 26,991; +0.45%}
V TRx Market Share: 16.78% vs 16.78% --- = ATH
V NRx Market Share: 18.64% vs 18.54% --- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 15.57% vs 15.63% --- (ATH = 15.63%)
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone !!
Short Interest
Interesting steady decrease despite the low price and no major run up
15-10-15 13-11-15
23,782,917 22,174,445
-6.76% (-1,608,472 sh)
Lowest level of short interest for the past year (and close to lowest since July 2013)
Thanks to ShortFishFry on ST for the graph: http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_45900974.jpg?1448404076
MOG, get a rest and stop repeating ur self for f^%k sake...if u know people who work in IB, or use ur typing skills {most probably the only skill u have} and Google some info about BO in pharmaceutical sector, it is mainly based on multiple of market sale potential. As simple as that. Same as banks usually are looked at or valued or analyzed in terms of price to book value (Google book value pls), same goes for bio company and highest expected sales potential, take a multiple of that, discount it, take off debt....etc, divide that by total outstanding shares, u get ur BO price. So if x, y or z value V with their statin as a combo drug at 100 million or 1billion, 10 or 100 billion....their offer will based on that....and if that means a 500 or a 1000% premium, it will easily be sold to their board.
Adding to that, u r seriously out of ur mind and living in ur own world if u think that this will stay at 1 or 2$ before any talks of possible merge or BO....boy, this will run up like crazy and in some cases with a short squeeze it might surpass the Rumored BO price....this is the most I think I ever wrote on ihub, but u seriously need to get a life with ur daily bu*^%#hit
I left the office, I will check it on Tuesday as I'm having a long weekend including monday
Scripts Update Week 13/11
Good Numbers considering Veteran Day (11-Nov)
V:
TRx: 14,821 {vs 14,873; -0.36%} Sec -2.59%
NRx: 6,478 {vs 6,458; +0.31%} Sec -1.43% ATH
Ref: 8,342 {vs 8,415; -0.87%} Sec -3.33%
L:
TRx: 3,992 {vs 4,300; -7.16%}
NRx: 1,464 {vs 1,489; -1.68%}
GenL:
TRx: 69,484 {vs 71,468; -2.78%}
NRx: 26,991 {vs 27,493; -1.83%}
V TRx Market Share: 16.78% vs 16.41% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 18.54% vs 18.22% -- {18.62% is the ATH 23-10}
V Ref Market Share: 15.63% vs 15.24% -- ATH
same goes in an updated inst holding on bloomberg terminal
Scripts Update (06/11). ATH x 3
–V– ATH Across the Board
TRx: 14,873 {vs 14,360; +3.57%} Sector +1.64%
NRx: 6,458 {vs 6,268; +3.03%} Sector +1.80%
Ref: 8,415 {vs 8,092; +3.99%} Sector +1.54%
-L-: WTF !!!
TRx: 4,300 {vs 4,120; +4.37%}
NRx: 1,489 {vs 1,387; +7.35%}
-GenL-:
TRx: 71,468 {vs 70,699; +1.09%}
NRx: 27,493 {vs 27,158; +1.23%}
V TRx Market Share: 16.41% vs 16.10%
V NRx Market Share: 18.22% vs 18.00%
V Ref Market Share: 15.24% vs 14.88%
Short Interest Update:
Short Interest Update: -3.61%
30/10/15: 22,925,002 Change:-857,915 Days to Cover: 20.19
15/10/15: 23,782,917 Change: +573,319 Days to Cover: 26.29
Zum,
That's why when you believe in the science, all this surrounding noise will eventually vanish. And if liquidity is available, you'll get the chance to average down and buy cheap shares.
That's why I've been in this investment since 2012 and not planning on liquidating anytime soon. As you said: "we've got a winner in EPA"
Volatility, price fluctuation, shorts pressure....all will put you down and make you reach that stage of giving up, but over the long term, this is a real winner as the science is showing day by day
If you are given a chance to make an investment for around 6Y (ie till 2018) and generate a return that can vary anywhere between 172% and 717% (that is based on my average cost and a range of low and conservative Price Targets)....ie a yearly return between 29% & 120%, I would take that at anytime
Believe in the science, corruption will vanish and authorities / bureaucracies will have no choice but to follow the science and join in....
Long & Strong and as always, Patience is a Virtue!!!
Suntrust New Update (09/11/2015):
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7VGFmZlVwOUxsTW8/view
What's Incremental To Our View
New data from the CHERRY study is supportive of AMRN’s REDUCE-IT CV outcomes study hypothesis. The study showed a stat. significant reduction in plaque, lipid & fibrous volumes in patients using Vascepa + statin vs. statin alone. Under its Free Speech win in the courts, AMRN can promote these findings through its sales force. We expect sales force promotion of JELIS (-53% reduction in CV risk) & CHERRY to fuel Rx growth enabling AMRN to be cash flow (+) in ’16. Risk/reward looks attractive; with performance driven by Rx trends & a free call option on its REDUCE-IT trial. Reiterate Buy/$6PT
by delayed they mean data is delayed usually by 15min from real time quotes
Jefferies Update:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7c1VfakFsaW1Kanc/view
* We do not currently include sales in mixed dyslipidemia in our estimates, but we believe ANCHOR promotion could be a material source of upside.
* Valuation/Risks: We are maintaining our DCF-based PT of $3.50. Risks include clinical, commercial, and competitive.
JL, thx for attending AHA and for keeping us updated. Always looking fwd for your posts
SunTrust about Red-it & Jelis:
"The population examined in the REDUCE-IT trial is far more severe than
in the JELIS population. Thus we would expect to see a reduction in MACE rates at least as high as that seen in JELIS."
SunTrust...Thx Mercator, didn't see you posted it earlier...
Interesting, 1st time mentioned;
"The acceleration in Vascepa volume coupled with
additional ex-US deals increases the likelihood that AMRN turns cash flow
positive in 2016"
Suntrust Updated Coverage;
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7aVlROWpLbmhVLWM/view
Scripts Update, week ending 30-10-2015
Week 30/10 – V –
TRx: 14,360 {vs 14,234; +0.9%} Sector +4.3%
NRx: 6,268 {vs 6,221; +0.8%} Sector +4.2% -- ATH
Ref: 8,092 {vs 8,013; +1.0%} Sector +4.3%
L:
TRx: 4,120 {vs 4,287; -3.9%}
NRx: 1,387 {vs 1,379; +0.6%}
GenL:
TRx: 70,699 {vs 67,015; +5.5%}
NRx: 27,158 {vs 25,805; +5.2%}
V TRx Market Share: 16.10% vs 16.64%
V NRx Market Share: 18.00% vs 18.62%
V Ref Market Share: 14.88% vs 15.37%
Omega3 - Niacin - Fenofibrate;
At the request of Pharmacydude, below a graph regarding the change in Year 2014 & 2015 of the 3 categories;
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7Zk4xV0wtbW1nTk0/view
+ a new link showing the numbers;
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7T0k2MXdnX3otUGs/view
I am not sure if this is what requested, but the data is for the following;
1) Omega3: V, L & Gen L
2) Niacin: Niacin, Niaspan, Nicotinic Acid & Niacin ER (I guess this is the generic as it has the largest Rx of the total)
3) Fenofibrate: Fenofibrate, Tricor, Triglide
Looking at the charts, we can see that Fenofibrate had the lowest decrease from Jan-14 till October-15 while Niacin was slashed by half (50% reduction in Rx)
PhDude;
I will try to when i have some free time, just need your help in sending me few brand names to try and get the numbers
thx
H.C.WAINWRIGHT Update: reiterate Buy rating and a $10 PT
Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7bTRac1JoV2lKSnM/view
- we stress that not only does the legal ruling allow communication of both the ANCHOR and JELIS data right now, but down the line, it also allows promotion of a successful REDUCE-IT read-out prior to FDA approval. Following these positive developments, we reiterate our Buy rating and a $10 PT
- While Vascepa was not intended for the sole management of LDL (it aims to reduce TG levels), in past clinical trials in both MARINE and ANCHOR, it has demonstrated a unique ability to lower TG and other lipid measures without increasing LDL cholesterol, presenting an advantage over its competitors (i.e., Lovaza, in essence making Vascepa, Lovaza+). We argue that as part of the sales promotion/physician education process, this advantageous lipid profile would not escape physicians’ attention (after repeat visits), and coupled with the significantly lower price point of Vascepa ($2,400/yr), should present an attractive add-on option to existing cardiovascular therapy (i.e., statins, where fenofibrates like niacin are no longer labeled for use as add-ons for statin as of earlier this year) before going on the more steeply priced PCSK9 inhibitors
- As this space continues to pick up steam in the next few years, we believe that Vascepa’s inherent optionality as a potentially synergistic add-on to existing regimens remains underappreciated.
- Our bull thesis on REDUCE-IT timetable and outcome. Despite and beyond current quarterly sales and legal actions, we continue to maintain our focus on the readout of the REDUCE-IT outcome trial as the sole determinant of Amarin’s long-term value. The company has reiterated that the timing of the read-out is less of a function of the event rate (enrollment and events tracking to expectations) and more of a function of the less predictable data analysis time. As a response to this, we point to the event dates on our timeline/probability matrix inside as the more pertinent dates while the data analysis approximation may be pushed out. Assuming a 2 month data analysis time frame, we project an interim readout in April-June 2016, with low probability of early termination for efficacy, and assuming a 4 month data analysis time frame, full study readout likely in March-May 2018 with high probability of success.
- Valuation and risks. Our price target of $10 is based on an equally weighted composite of: (a) $9.75/share, as a 35x multiple of taxed and diluted FY22 GAAP EPS of $1.33 discounted back to FY15 at 25%; and (b) an NPV of $10.32/share (discount rate 12%, growth rate 2%). Risks to our investment thesis and target price include: (1) failure of the REDUCE-IT study; (2) Vascepa commercial ramp-up and/or peak sales not meeting our projections; (3) delay or failure of Vascepa to obtain FDA approval in the ANCHOR indication; and (4) further competitive disruption of the omega-3 market by generics and/or OTC supplements beyond our model.
Oppenheimer Update;
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7MDAzc0ZmVUNiakk/view
Vascepa is slowly but surely becoming a real drug in the CV space, and we would not be surprised to see pharma interest at some point. However, it seems less clear whether or not a buyer would pay up for REDUCEIT optionality, which doesn't read out until 1H18.
Upcoming catalysts include
1)completion of REDUCE-IT enrollment by year end 2015 or early 2016;
2)Vascepa script growth in the near/medium term as promotional efforts increase following favorable First Amendment ruling;
3)interim analysis of REDUCE-IT data in 2016.
KEY RISKS
Note: We view AMRN, as a stock trading under $5, as speculative and appropriate for risk-tolerant investors
Interesting Estimation / Forecast:
" Based on data currently available, we estimate that we will recognize net product revenues of $22.5 million to $24.0 million in Q4 2015 resulting in net product revenues of $77.1 million to $78.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2015."
I guess this is the 1st time we hear an estimate for the coming quarter and year end results....please correct me if i'm wrong.
I am just intrigued why mentioning a forecast for the 1st time?!
My take regarding Pacer Update;
Interesting wording: "At or before that time...etc"
There must be something appealing for amarin's lawyers to accept the 7 weeks extension. IMO, if FDA didn't offer something of high importance to Amarin, talks would have ended and we would be back to the court for final ruling / injunction
Something of importance to AMRN is being discussed and to be finalized...
With Cherry results in few days, NCE by mid-Nov and a month later (or before) 1A update, it's gonna be an interesting end of the year.
17Dec---i would take that as my Christmas gift, one week ahead :):)
Scripts Update for week ending 23/10
– V –
TRx: 14,234 {vs 13,917; +2.28%} Sector -2.55%
NRx: 6,221 {vs 6,040; +3.00%} Sector -2.61% -- ATH
Ref: 8,013 {vs 7,877; +1.73%} Sector -2.52%
- L -
TRx: 4,287 {vs 4,320; -0.76%}
NRx: 1,379 {vs 1,475; -6.51%}
-GenL-
TRx: 67,015 {vs 69,538; -3.63%}
NRx: 25,805 {vs 26,784; -3.66%}
V TRx Market Share: 16.64% vs 15.86% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 18.62% vs 17.61% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 15.37% vs 14.73% -- ATH
Short Interest Update (15/10/2015):
With this low volume, shorties were enjoying this and adding to their short position. As can be seen below, for 15Days, shorts increased their positions by 573,319 shares and for 1 Month, the number increased by 1,017,339.
Going along with that, days to cover also increased. Shorties are feeling a bit secure since the attack was well organized and known to all. Days to cover increased from around 9 Days 2M ago, to 26 days as of 15/10/2015.
Hopefully, in a random day/night, after close or before market open, a press release from AMRN will squeeze them hard and all devoted longs will enjoy watching the stock climbing exponentially while the shorties are getting hammered and burning
End of----Short nbs----15D Change----1M Change----Days to Cover
15-Oct----23,782,917----2.47%--------4.47%--------26.29
30-Sep----23,209,598----1.95%------------------------17.32
15-Sep----22,765,578----(-0.99%)---------------------15.25
14-Aug----22,993,641---------------------------------------9.05
Report: Fat the new health paradigm
Interesting read !!
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7YkI3RElselBsZTA/view?usp=sharing
JL & others, this should be an interesting Read:
I am going through a research i got my hands on, done by Credit Suisse in Sep-2015 titled: Fat the new health paradigm
Still at the beginning, 85 Pages
Interesting mentioned point 1st few pages page:
* Doctors & Patients' focus on bad and good cholesterol is superficial at best and most likely misleading. The most mentioned factors that doctors use to assess the risk of CVDs - Total Blood Cholesterol (TC) and LDL Cholesterol (the bad) - are poor indicators of CVD risk ......The best indicators are the size of LDL particles (pattern A or B) and the ratio of TG (Triglycerides) to HDL (the good). A VAP test to tech your pattern A/B costs less than $100 in the US, YET few know of its existence
*Among the good fats we find omega-3 (flaxseed, salmon, fish oil) and monounsaturated fat (olive oil, meat and nuts). most research on omega-3 consistently shows benefits from additional intake of this fatty acid. Additional intake of 1 gram per day of omega-3 reduces the risk of CVD death by 5-30%. It has been shown to be beneficial also in lowering the risk of mental illness such as Alzheimer or dementia....
* The most extensive clinical trial was run in Italy and published in 1999. 11,324 patients who experienced a myocardial infraction were given 882mg/day of EPA & DHA, both omaega-3s. no patients were on statins. After 3.5y the patients taking teh supplements experienced 15% fewer cardia events and 20% reduction in overall mortality....Other benefits of omega-3 center around teh anti-inflammatory effects and beneficial impacts on the immune system.....
I will attach the report in due time
Scripts Update Week Ending 16/10
– V –
TRx: 13,917 {vs 14,146; -1.62%} Sector -0.29%
NRx: 6,040 {vs 6,154; -1.85%} Sector +1.25%
Ref: 7,877 {vs 7,992; -1.44%} Sector -1.25%
L:
TRx: 4,320 {vs 4,260; +1.41%}
NRx: 1,475 {vs 1,426; +3.44%}
GenL:
TRx: 69,538 {vs 69,623; -0.12%}
NRx: 26,784 {vs 26,296; +1.86%}
V TRx Market Share: 15.86% vs 16.07%
V NRx Market Share: 17.61% vs 18.17%
V Ref Market Share: 14.73% vs 14.76%
interim announcement / Eff% / interim event:
May / >27% / 11-12 March
"First, I said 300m shares, not 500m. Would be nice to respond with an accurate depiction of my post."
"Taking your dilution assumptions and adding to it, to reach a total count of 500m outstanding shares."
Adding to it is the key word...it was used to make your scenario even worse and despite that still ending with great return...
Anyhow, those who believe in the science and are in for LT investment will understand what i mean, might be a bit hard for you to follow the science and the flow of events since you are just here to say non-sense
If you are so mad about the pricing of $2, it's easy, close your short position or long, whatever it is, if there is really a position you hold, and move on with your life and investments into the next thing.....better for your nerves, brain (since you over work it with these scenarios) and for sure better for this respectable board...wasting everyone's time with your bla bla bla
MOG,
Some free time you have to bash and write a long statement....anyhow, keep on saying that over and over again, time will surely prove you wrong.
Taking your dilution assumptions and adding to it, to reach a total count of 500m outstanding shares. With a positive red-it and increase in scripts, i would say a total sales around $800million is quite achievable. Why this number, just to reach the point (easy math for you) that this will give us a fair valuation of around $5Billion (multiple of sales + royalties,,,etc) and with your 500m outstanding shares ----> $10/shares price...in other words a 410% from current 1.96$...ie an annual return of 102.5% (again going with your assumption of 4 years...2019...which is more than mentioned by management)
Personally, i would take such a scenario and possible return at any time
So using all the negative assumptions you mentioned and the return is great, now take a chill pill and use the math for a neutral / base case scenario and do the math for the possible return. I am not going to mention the best case scenario....
Scripts Update (Week Ending 09/10/2015):
– V –
TRx: 14,146 {vs 14,367; -1.54%} Sector -2.69%
NRx: 6,154 {vs 6,121; +0.54%} Sector -1.36% ATH
Ref: 7,992 {vs 8,246; -3.08%} Sector -3.51%
L:
TRx: 4,260 {vs 4,687; -9.11%}
NRx: 1,426 {vs 1,577; -9.58%}
GenL:
TRx: 69,623 {vs 71,410; -2.50%}
NRx: 26,296 {vs 26,644; -1.31%}
V TRx Market Share:16.07% vs 15.88% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share:18.17% vs 17.82% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share:14.76% vs 14.69% -- ATH
MOG
Come on, you are playing around with words to try and prove what you mentioned before.
"Did Jeffries say AMRN isn't planning on, or doesn't need, any dilution in the near future?"
Did they say that they for sure, 100%, without any doubt, need financing which can dilute shareholders?????
I dunno if you are familiar with equity research reports or flash note. Usually when an analyst covering a specific stock has concerns about his valuation, he/she adds a segment underneath "Risks". I clearly don't see that in Jefferies paper
To show it to you in a very clear and smooth way so you understand what i mean:
In one of the equity updates for AMRN in May-15, underneath "Risks" the following was written:
Risks
Commercialization Risk as Standalone -
Dilution Risk from Financing -
Kowa Partnership Reduces Expenses and Enhances Sales Potential -
ANCHOR & REDUCE-IT Regulatory Approval -
Vascepa Intellectual Property Estate: Issuance of Additional Patent to Support Product Longevity -
Vascepa Supply Constraints Unlikely, but Could Occur -
" I don't see anything in the note that changes AMRN's need for financing by the end of next year (probably a lot sooner)."
I guess Goldman, Citi, MorganStanley, RBC, BoA should be harrasing you by now, knocking on your door and calling you with lucrative job offers bcz hiring you and following your logic, they will be able to make millions for their clients and for their prop books
Jefferies Update: PDF Link
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7SDQxdU1nNF84emc/view
JEFFERIES FLASH NOTE (13-OCT-15):
* First Amendment Win Could Expand Vascepa Market Opp 10x
* ANCHOR Impact Could Be Seen In The Next Quarters
* AMRN has decided to rollout their new ANCHOR marketing material in a sequence of modules to avoid inundating physicians
* Future modules are planned to detail inflammation benefits of Vascepa and the Japanese JELIS study that showed a CV outcomes benefit for E-EPA
* Interim REDUCE-IT Analysis On Track For 2016
* we believe that a favorable outcome in the interim analysis would lead to major upside beyond current levels
* International Partnerships May Continue As Non-Dilutive Sources Of Cash
(THAT IS WRITTEN SPECIFICALLY FOR MOGWAI)
* we believe that partnerships for Vascepa in a contingent of international countries could be non-dilutive sources of cash
I will attach the pdf file in due time
LONG & STRONG !!