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Musclepharm needs to begin the process of gradually changing the brand image to one that is a little more mainstream. Nike started as a running shoes company, but later it expanded into clothing and added many other sports, like football, baseball, basketball, tennis, soccer, golf, yoga...
The Assault pre work out powder may work as one option among multiple pre work powders, exclusively for those that are into aggressive bodybuilding, American high contact sports, like UFC and football. Those guys that a little less animals, like those doing European sports (ex rugby), the assault name is not gonna work. A tennis, golf or soccer player is not going to dig a product named Assault.
many supplements contains vitamins and minerals that are badly absorbed by most people.
Anyways, I personally don't take any of these products....I only take vitamin D because I'm deficient and my doctor told me to take it.
I do try to eat different things that might be good for you. Like I order beef hearts at the local Peruvian restaurant because they contains plenty CoQ10.
Too much carb, too much protein or too much fat, that is a recipe for disaster for your health. Testosterone levels get too high or too low, your weight gets too high or too low when you don't eat and live a balanced life. It is important to keep your weight down, to keep hormones balanced....when you do anything else, you f up your body for good....In America, being fat, being pumped is like the norm....what about being normal was the norm.
Well, as an investor I welcome the desire to be fat or pumped....coca cola or musclepharm, both will make you money.
whole foods market might make you money as it adopts the desire of Americans to either be fat or pumped up....too much sugar, too much protein or both....that is the recipe for success in the food and beverage industry.
Like my American friend says: "I don't like having my breakfast at Einstein Bagel Company because everything is so dry!" So, Einstein Bagel Company is probably a bad investment.
if sales for q4 are going to land at $55 million, then 2015 might land at $270 million.
$270 million revenue with little more dilution is an $18 stock price
if the dilution continues, then I doubt we will move much higher than where we are now...last year's dilution was a knock out to every investors....Essentially, there is zero tolerance for further share issuances and for departing employees leaving the company with a suitcase full of stocks. I personally have had enough of that nonsense.
2014 pretty much gave every executive the stock holdings that they deserve for the future. 1 million shares may be issued, but we should expect that to be over multiple years and not immediately. If they are issued immediately, there is close to 100% guarantee that further pipe deals are around the corner, and no investor wants to own a company that constantly raises capital at depressed levels.
codie, if you think that 5 Hour Energy got such a great product, then why wouldn't you be excited about the fact that Musclepharm is entering the market for energy shots with a competing product?
5 Hour Energy sells for $2 billion a year....so, even a 15% market share of the entire energy shot market would generate more profit than what Musclepharm is worth today....meaning if everything goes well, and Musclepharm makes a serious attempt to challenge 5 Hour Energy, the stock could go from $9.7 to $100.
Who says that 5 Hour Energy cannot be challenged? SK energy is challenging 5 Hour Energy in Walmart, and perhaps Musclepharm could do the same thing even better.
Why do you think that Phillip Frost advised Musclepharm to buy the biozone assets? why do you think Phillip Frost supported Fuse Science? Did you ever consider that there might have been some strategic motives behind that? Why did Musclepharm sign Tiger Woods? and howcome Brad didn't tell us much about the DROPZ project during last conference call?
b12 is not easily absorbed to begin with, many people need injections...
perhaps i'm wrong about vitamin b12...perhaps it might be absorbed as a liquid for those with perfect digestive system....vitamin b12 is pretty complex though, so it would be nice if somebody had tested the efficacy of these products for healthy individuals, unhealthy individuals, young, old.
Anyways, I still hope that Musclepharm comes out with something slightly different.
b12 is absorbed mainly through the intestine or through the blood stream....so, either you take a tablet, inject it, absorb it under your tongue or absorb it through your nose.
I'm surprised that there hasn't been more critique of these kind of shots and energy drinks containing vitamin b12.
I'm sure Dr. Serrano knows everything there is to know about that. Whether Musclepharm will lean up against the product formulas of competitors will have to be seen. I personally would not market anything that contained something that was highly inactive.
liquid b12 is a scam, any serious company would not make you believe that is something that you could absorb
also, the decaf product...who exactly needs that? it doesn't give much of an energy boost and it tastes horrible in addition to that.
the DROPZ product is the opportunity because
1) it's a high margin product
2) the market needs it because the pioneering product 5 Hour Energy is a complete scam of a product
3) musclepharm got some solid endorsers
4) musclepharm got it's own manufacturing for the product.
Essentially, the margins will be like 90%...the largest product cost is the container, like 5 cents a piece...and the wholesale price is like $1.25.
The DROPZ product may rely on some of the same technology as Fuse Science product, but it will be close to 5 Hour Energy in concept and fucntion.
that is complete nonsense!
based on today's pump? I don't think we will see any different pattern than last year....the stock's move today isn't based on any news....so it is purely speculation to believe that something good is on the horizon.
something that hasn't been tried is making similar products to the 5 hour energy, but with better additives to the caffeine.
I'm not even sure that you can absorb B12 as a liquid? I thought B12 was absorbed through the intestine and if intestine function is weak, it needs to be injected into the bloodstream.
It seems like 5 Hour Energy is one big scam...and that SK Energy is another one.
Make something similar to these, with better ingredients and better athletes endorsing the product.
Univision, Telemundo female celebrity along with Tiger Woods and johnny Manziel as endorsers and you got a winner. Perhaps make a Flo Rida special edition, to have as broad an appeal as possible.
As the billionaire owner of 5 hour energy has sued close to every competitor to his product, I would challenge him making slogans like "we are the real deal!" or "better ingredients, better energy shot!"
Who knows, this billionaire might buy Musclepharm if he feels threatened....for $30 a share or something like that.
it is most likely related to the DROPZ product, that is going to be an insanely high margin product endorsed by Tiger Woods, manufactured with the biozone assets.
putting two and two together is not that hard to do...still, this looks mostly like insider trading to be honest.
They should probably keep the assault product, but promote another pre work out product and another name more aggressively and gradually change the brand image towards a more mainstream brand...still with an edge, but with no names in the forefront that may confuse what this company is all about.
Adding products instead of changing things may actually fix many things for Musclepharm. Tiger Woods gives Musclepharm the opportunity to reach more broadly....so the current, narrow product assortment won't work well for that long.
Musclepharm is a multiple SKU kind of company, all supplement companies are.
I wonder who is buying so much more expensively than last trading day of 2014 just as the quarter has ended?
I mean, the suspicion of possessing insider information from scale from 1 to 10, that is a 10.
If fully legit, thanks for the conviction though!
My obserbation has been that sales peaked the moment Musclepharm moved away from UFC image on the endorsement side while maintaining UFC related packaging.
Musclepharm is a very confusing company brand-wise, I have pointed it out numerous time, so has Deepspace, Bellator_exec and others.
In Brazil, where Musclepharm probably has maintained the UFC image, sales are doing fine.
In the US, the consumer is confused...Is Tiger Woods leaving golf to join UFC? Are golfers suppose to use a pre work out product called Assault? You guys tell me what Musclepharm is all about because Im getting confused?
Assault as a name of a core product doesn't work for a supplement company with aspirations to become every athlete's sports nutrition company and for a company endorsed by Tiger Woods.
The product name worked fine for Musclepharm when UFC was the core attribute of the brand.
Now, Musclepharm needs to reposition the brand to the mass market, beyond the UFC brand image.
To me, Combat, Reconn, Armour are all cool names that got broad appeal..For a brand that is purely associated with UFC ...Assault is a great name. However, Musclepharm is repositioning itself for the mass market. So,I would reserve the Assault name for a pre work out powder that exclusively target the hardcore athletes... for some extra strength testosterone boosting powder.
For a more universal pre work out powder, I would pick a name that is a little less controversial.
You are suppose to spray the Raid under the tongue for fastest absorption
Assault is a terrible name for a mass market product though, you gotta give me that.
Even if Raid reminds you of a bug killer or the Football team the Raiders from the "lovely" city of Oakland...it's a better name.
MP Assault or MP Bullshit, what's worse?
Combat is used by Under Armour as a name for football gloves...I believe Nike uses the word Combat too.
Under Armour does use the name Assault for some tactical gear...but not for any mainstream products.
Imo, RAID is a much better name for a pre work out supplement...Sport is for the most part about team work, involving team players, coaches, supporters and fans.
Raiding and combating are words that are related to team work. Assaulting only takes one crazy person and is more of an individual action.
assaulting is not what soldiers do nowadays...they attack, they storm, they combat
also, soldiers don't kill anymore...they neutralize subjects if necessary...and if a bullet through the skull is the best option, that is the one taken.
Under Armour is a military clinging name....but the military themes don't sell that much if they are overextended and don't relate to popular sports in America ex UFC and MMA.
Combat and Armour are names that relate to the aggressive nature and battlefield nature of American sports.
Assaulting is something that crazy people do, so, it's a bizarre name for a sports supplement.
I personally would not buy any product with such a name...it gives me the creeps. Why not MP Hitler?
The Combat name can remain but the Assault name gotta go away.
Costco is not going to carry a product with such a name and such a name doesn't resonate with anything that Tiger Woods stands for.
Musclepharm needs to find some name with an edge but with a broader appeal for a mass market audience.
I wonder why Assault was chosen in the first place? The other names are military related, assaulting is not exactly what soldiers do.
2015, it's either make or break for Musclepharm.
Cutting dilution and costs, making endorsements more productive and becoming profitable are all a must for Musclepharm.
Entering product categories with higher margins for the mass market would be brilliant. Furthermore, leveraging existing brands and formulas for new markets and new product designs would be a smart move.
Musclepharm needs to engage more actively with local and national medias, getting the word out about this exciting sports nutrition company that signed Tiger Woods and Johnny Manziel. Also, Musclepharm needs to listen to and to involve clients even further in it's product and marketing development process. Clients should have immense knowledge about what sells and what doesn't sell at their channel....collaborating with clients doesn't hurt.
To me personally, the EU zone and Brazil look much more promising for investors than the US going forward.
Again, there is much more credit in America and UK than there is in the EU zone overall. The debt to GDP ratio is less than 70% in Brazil, less than 95% in EU....sovereign debt levels are high in Greece, Portugal and Italy...but the most important of these three Italy, got some of the lowest personal debt and highest savings in the World...so, it's not all that bad.
Those executives that were overcompensated in 2014, got 2015 to make up for the excessive stock grants to be justifiable to shareholders.
Also, the new endorsements signed in 2014 need to show some positive effect on the sales in 2015 to be justifiable.
There has been nothing for shareholders to cheer about in 2014. The stock price was flat because of the very high dilution, and there was little effect on revenue from the dilution.
So, really most of these dilution has to be considered as prepayment for services delivered in the future...which i believe it was as Musclepharm executives were authorized to issue 3 million shares, where half of them were issued in 2014. Furthermore, Tiger Woods is an extraordinarily expensive endorsement, that most likely won't be followed by any other endorsements for quite a while.
2015 is the year where Musclepharm needs to justify the excessive dilution in 2014. It is forced to do that as it is unprofitable, under capitalized with a struggling stock price. The excessive dilution and commitment of endorsement payments in 2014, will either make or break Musclepharm. I believe it will make Musclepharm!
China is a market that Musclepharm should consider entering.
China is a big market and the economy is relatively stable. Also, the currency is tied to the US dollar and the inflation is under control.
Kelsen Group, The Danish Butter Cookies bakery that is now part of Campbell soup has grown sales in China and Hong Kong dramatically over the last 2 years....so much that sales have doubled over that period of time, from less than $50 million a quarter to close to $100 million a quarter.
I'm sure the acquisition by Campbell soup helped a bit, but no matter what, it shows that the Chinese food and beverage market remains to be quite attractive.
In many ways the Brazilian real and the euro got more of a potential to rise long term than the US dollar.
The US dollar is strengthening now but that's only because of anticipation of rising interest rates. The interest rates have been kept low for the last 14 years that you may wonder if raising them will ever be possible.
US assets are more popular than ever, while developing countries assets aren't.....at some point it becomes evident that assets are too expensive in America and more attractively priced elsewhere.
United States has done little to cut government spending, Brazil is trying now and Germany has never done anything else.
Giving people lots of creditor money in their pockets is a model that Europe and Brazil are moving away from, while the Unites States is raping it to death. Employee bonuses are financed with cheap corporate credit, most of the consumption in the US is financed with debt again....we are doing the same mistake once again, boosting consumption with debt.
The energy cost has gone down in US because it became very cheap for oil and gas companies to finance exploration and drilling costs. The problem is that there is no demand for that much oil and gas...just wait and see many of these smaller companies in the oil and gas sector to default
The sales to Brazil is done by a US distributor, Europa...so, there is no way to hide that.
Brazilians operate with two currencies though, their real and the US dollar...so, it's not like there will be no further sales there or prices necessarily will have to go down...it may just mean, that there will be no further growth in revenue as a smaller group of people would be potential buyers. These kind of products are luxury in Brazil though and only for the upper middle class and upper class.
I think that Musclepharm needs to play it very safe in 2015.
Rising interest rates could provoke some sort of market correction after so long time with low interest rates.
I hope that Brad takes that into consideration before granting more stocks to himself. The macro economic environment in 2015, 2016 and 2017 may look entirely different than in 2014.
Employee bonuses, credit card debt, stock market and real estate prices have all been rising more than normal over the last couple of years. That's typically this way bubbles are created.
I'm sure that Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tiger Woods could sell for $50 million each in this category if packaged right.
Colin Kaepernick is not that interesting anymore, he looks most of all like a once great quarterback that soon will be forgotten.
Having a personality from Univision, Telemundo as endorser of such energy shots could be a good move as many in the Latino community are familiar with these people. Familiarity is the most important element of using endorsements....if the endorser is somebody you follow, then it is more likely that you will pay attention to the endorsement and go buy the product.
nothing is given, Musclepharm had quite a lot of inventory last quarter and if it's the good quality inventory then there is nothing to worry about yet. Also, Musclepharm could decide to sell the Biozone assets if it doesn't need them anyways....that will give Musclepharm quite some cash.
I have the feeling that Q4 is not going to be stellar in terms of profitability but that revenue is gonna be okay.
2015 might be completely blow out year where you and bellator_exec will look like fools for bashing Musclepharm at $14 or you might win and Musclepharm will be a $6 stock....it's up in the air.
Energy drink products similar to 5-Hour Energy and SK Energy, endorsed by Tiger Woods, Johnny Manziel, Arnold Schwarzenegger and with Fitmiss brand on....those things could contribute a whole lot to profitability. SK Energy does use endorsers on some of it's products, Colin Kaepernick being one of it's endorsers.
Brad made a big bet when he signed Tiger Woods this year, so that deal better translate into something profitable pretty soon...
Musclepharm better make stress test assessments and have plans ready in case it runs out of cash. The backing of Phillip Frost is somehow an insurance against bad things....but not a cheap option.
It would be nice if equity compensation was put aside for now and Musclepharm did whatever it could to save money and improve the liquidity situation.
he was running a company that he sold to some other company.
He most likely sold the company for less than what he invested into it...whether there were any wrongdoings taking place is not really for us to speculate about.
Brad filed for bankruptcy when he was very young, it was a different time than today....everybody had 5 cars and 5 houses back then....lots of strange things happening, but it is all over. I bet you that you will find many Ceos with similar pasts, that's the American system....that you can file for bankruptcy and then rise again a few years later like nothing happened.
In Europe you are done for life if you file for bankruptcy...and in a country like Italy you better jump from the highest bridge in town.
Legally, Brad doesn't owe anybody anything...and he doesn't owe you an explanation either. He is clean!
profitability is everything in 2015....and I believe the road to profitability is higher revenue combined with more productive operation at Musclepharm.
I think there will be a lot of focus on how well Musclepharm uses it's endorsers. Every investor understands that it's expensive signing Johnny Manziel and Tiger Woods, so the investor needs to see something coming out of the endorsements. Thus far, there hasn't been much use of any of these in Musclepharm's marketing.
Isn't there a media team that works closely with these endorsers? Also, how come Musclepharm is never interviewed by any national or local media? I mean, the company is quite so unique and it is selling for close to $200 million, yet nobody in the media world is aware of that?
Having some great endorsements and being a great company is not worth much if nobody is aware of it. I think Musclepharm needs to work a little on it's communication in the sales and marketing department.
IMO, when a company is close to profitability but not quite there....every employee in the company needs to get the message that costs need to be cut.
It starts with the Ceo, he needs to cut his compensation and his fringes while there aren't hired more employees for the next 10% sales growth..
To squeeze more out of employees, top executives need to show the example of more restraint with their compensation. I don't believe exploitation will work very well, where executives ask little more of themselves but everything from the guy on the floor. Exploitation will particularly not work well in the current job market with shortages in the horizon.
receiving a monthly clothing allowance, vehicle allowance and entertainment/travel expense account seems to be quite standard for any Ceo.
When it comes to two country club memberships, I think he should pay for these himself. It's possible that he got these for business representation foremost...but that may be misunderstood by investors like you, so it's hardly worth it for him to let the company pay for these things. Same thing with lounge memberships and alike, Ceos use these for representation...but why not keep that information for yourself? Lots of business relationships are built on the golf course or in a lounge in company with some nice ladies.
Brad should probably work on his personal branding a little bit and try to convey trust through integrity, honesty and modesty. Trust is not built in one year, but after three years of a consistent pattern of good behavior, most people will trust you regardless of your past.
Investors don't like companies that pay executives high salaries and let them have multiple company paid country club memberships while the stock price is going nowhere.
Losing investors for a company like Musclepharm is very costly and it will become even more costly down the road as Musclepharm uplists to Nasdaq.
Mr Grinch, Merry Christmas!
There is not a lot of Arnold Iron Whey 5 lbs tubs that are sold at $85. And Sam's Club and Walmart's marked up retail price is most likely around 25% of wholesale price for these kind of products.
So, wholesale price as a percentage of retail price at Walmart is most likely around 80%.
This means that it will take a few quarters before Musclpeharm will make money on this deal. Whether it will lose or break even on this channel in Q4 that's an open question. Remember that Brad didn't promise that this deal would contribute much to bottom line during last conference call, so there are no big surprises here.
$50 million in additional sales from the Walmart deal is not a bad guess though.
Well, so much about Musclepharm...I will go enjoy the Christmas with my family now...so much to do.
LOL Brad sent me some socks for Christmas for being last man standing...
Brad wants to secure that large amounts of granted stocks are vesting as fast as possible and took the maximum amount conceivable for himself early on. Furthermore, he wants to adopt the policy that departing employees keep all their unvested stock grants if they leave the company....to protect the stocks granted to him.
Yeah, I know it doesn't look too good for investors....his compensation was clearly over the top in 2014.
However I wouldn't worry too much for 2015 as Brad didn't deliver any shareholder value in 2014. Furthermore, Brad doesn't have the power nor the incentive to grant large amounts of shares to himself in 2015.
Any dumb move by management in 2015 regarding compensation and endorsements, surely is going to be reflected in the stock price.
Obtaining profitability and creditworthiness in 2015 should be the main concern for the management. The management surely needs to put themselves aside and convey more trust. Any company paid country club membership is unheard of for a company not delivering results to shareholders and not being particularly creditworthy and profitable.
That is peanuts for any executive to pay that himself, there is no need to expense the company for that...it shows lack of respect for the stakeholders. If the company runs out of cash, employees, shareholders, creditors don't wanna hear that some country club membership was what made the company fail.
Musclepharm surely needs to spend less on nonsense going forward. Investors don't like to see too much of that kind of expenses even if they don't matter much.
Top executives are suppose to treat the funds of the company like their own....nobody needs two country club memberships, and a company that doesn't make any money doesn't need to pay for any country club membership to be honest.
Anything that could be perceived as power abuse is rarely worth it to top executives. It's the top executives job to say no thanks when offered fringes that are unreasonable. It's just bad policy!