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If this is true the sp would likely skyrocket.
I think there would be a general assumption by the investing public that the FDA would be very inclined to give the ok to their "poster child".
If the Aussie government acted swiftly they could be months into the trial, they could be close to an interim look in and be very close to approval.
Doesn't matter. Today the board has decided we're running bulk trials.
I'm a fan of Australia. Allies in every major conflict, distrustful of their elected officials,wise enough to foresee the boomer problem...
But I don't believe they're the FDA's underling.
Nor do I think as a courtesy they would wait a year for the new FDA regs.
Tens of millions are suffering daily and billions are being spent.
Could someone please lay out the case why the Australian government, after seeing the result of a trial they themselves paid for, did not immediately fund a phase 2/3 trial?
After all, they were intrigued enough to fund the phase 2a.
Considering the amount of money that might be saved I think they would have moved with all due haste.
I believe you said the same thing @ $5.65 along with "There aren't enough shares available to take 'er down in a meaningful way".
I'm conflicted by what this board believes and what I know of the real world.
It's been mentioned by a poster supposedly in the know that CEO's don't give a crap about the shareholders. I also believe this to be true.
I think this board could talk for hours about small biotechs they have known and loved that ended up in smoke. I could.
Do I believe it's possible the share purchase plan is meant to string us along a bit longer? Yes.
The amount of faith many of this boards members have placed in a publicly held company sometimes strikes me as a mania.
Still, you asked for thoughts so here goes:
By the 24 month mark the Alzheimer's progression began anew.
Two years is great comparatively speaking but a permanent disease halt it is not.
Still, the company has great hopes for Rett, MS,..
So the share purchase plan is symbolic and meant to hearten.
You just said it was proof positive again.
How can you not see this?
That it's to placate shareholders.
When he started this purchase plan most on this board chuckled.
"Lunch money" they said, "a trifling amount."
" Surely it must be a signal, as the amount is too small to truly qualify as meaningful insider purchases" they said.
Now you say it is proof positive?
So why doesn't Anavex just come out and say "We think it would be prudent to wait for new FDA guidelines."
That hardly qualifies as earth shattering, letting the cat out of the bag, exposing themselves...
We would simply think it a prudent move and would happily wait.
Aren't we coming up on one year for the MTA?
I would think by the 3 month mark Biogen would have had a pretty good idea if A-273 was all that and a bag of chips for MS.
I understand deals take time but if A-273 is a transformative drug they would have moved lighting quick lest the prize get away.
Risky drug deals are somewhat the norm in biotech anyways.
This has been brought up before but is worth repeating.
Dr. Missling might not be the best "face" for Anavex.
We love him but perhaps the investment community not so much.
The company may be scratching it's collective head as to the lackluster share price and are just trying a new tact.
We view Anavex as the second coming but really they're just a dinky little biotech to the rest of the world.
I think I'll buy 375 shares on Monday. Signaling back so to speak.
A 2.
I think they're going to discuss the process, nothing more. The remainder of the week will be uneventful.
Share price $3.99.
I do believe we'll get some MS info which would be akin to scraps of bread for this info starved board.
I think his first purchase was 750 shares. So how about 7.5 billion and 50% royalties? 375 being 50% of 750.
I think you just described Ritalin.
Does anyone here have any thoughts about 1-41 for depression and stroke which seems to be as far along as 3-71?
Good article, although my main takeaway is what a big deal A-273's safety data is.
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-fda-approved-kymriah-a-car-t-cell-therapy-to-treat-cancer-2017-8
Then we'll need to get rich enough to retire, because reading the majority of the posts on this board already takes up more time than I would have believed possible a year or two ago.
I don't have a thesis per se.
I'm only in AVXL because I like to gamble on high risk/high reward stocks.
I'm just saying the cat seems already out of the bag unless you think Biogen is too small to do a hostile takeover. If so, your point may very well be valid.
I wish Facloner's AVXL future would come to pass but I think it's a bit too fairy-tale-ish.
I try very hard to be an optimist but government(s) are dysfunctional and something like this might best be kept out of their hands.
As for insurance companies, sure, I'd take it happily but they better slash my premiums. They are for profit and premiums = profits.
I'd love to wrong on both counts.
Then why loan it to Biogen?
But then why did they loan it to Biogen?
For those who trade AVXL shares.
Recently, the SEC approved an industry wide-initiative to adopt a shortened settlement cycle for most trades. The goal of this initiative is to increase efficiency and reduce risk within the marketplace. Starting on September 5, 2017, most security trades will begin to settle in two business days instead of three.
My first thought was, cool, they'll be able use smaller doses of their existing drugs.
But what if A-273, by restoring homeostasis, allows them to increase the maximum tolerated dose.
Maybe we already have the drugs to cure everything but just haven't optimized them yet.
Well done sir.
Good point. I was just thinking Alzhiemer's.
While this shouldn't be a problem for us it makes for an interesting read nonetheless.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/12/health/cancer-drug-trials-encounter-a-problem-too-few-patients.html
They've done numerous studies where the accounts of dead people (awaiting probate and the like) outperformed everyone else.
"The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"
Huckster might be the word you're looking for.
One trading rule I learned a long time ago and still use today is after establishing an original position in a stock, if things are going well one may buy up to 50% more. 750/375 shares satisfies that rule.
Is it possible that A-273 didn't work in combination with any of Biogen's current drugs and that's where their interests were?
If that were true, and we still believe A-273 is helpful solo, might we just now be beginning some type of next MS phase?
If Anavex ends up being the poster child for the new and improved FDA trial designs ( and considering A-273's safety record it would be a wise choice), we'd be all over the news as the trial design is unveiled.
This is assuming it's a slow news day. Otherwise the bottom of page 8.
I'd be shocked if we don't hear mention of a MS trial soon.
The scientific rationale, preclinical data, and clinical development path of ANAVEX 2-73 as a novel treatment strategy for Rett Syndrome, Parkinson’s Disease, and Multiple Sclerosis will be discussed in more detail. This presentation will explore the links between preclinical findings and clinical trial development trajectory in our ongoing translational research efforts.
Then you're choosing conformation bias.
Respectfully, you had to remove this to make your point valid.
with our strongest balance sheet to date
Has me wondering too. Seems like the wording dances around saying this year.
“We are entering the second half of 2017 with our strongest balance sheet to date, which allows the Company to execute the Phase 2 clinical trial in Rett syndrome, for which ANAVEX™ 2-73 has been granted Orphan Drug Designation by the FDA, as well as the Phase 2/3 clinical trial in Alzheimer’s disease and the Phase 2 clinical trial in Parkinson’s disease,” said Christopher U. Missling, PhD, President and Chief Executive Officer of Anavex Life Sciences.
Potential for several clinical read-outs in 2018.