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Going to play twtr/yelp with far otm strangles for a few bucks/lotto
TASR meant
TASE eyeing for bottom.. ER this week
Im never eating at chipotle again darn it... Jk of course but worthless puts
NFLX out 1/2 pos at 4.00 from 1.60
Nflx continuing today
Great downgrade yesterday ... Egg on face
shanghai green at the moment
Oh sorry... I thought you had referred to cmg lol, my bad.. I agree with your take on biib though. Im monitoring for now... The ms drug low guidance was somewhat alarming.
What are you thinking?
Market could use strong bidu numbers
I got this one wrong... Dont bet against the carnitas
Hope so
NFLX LOD
Holy tsla
FB tempting here for trade up to ER (I’m not holding this through ER). Especially if there’s a green day tomorrow or Wed morning, could bounce back. I don’t see a reason for today other than maybe profit taking and the overall market. Wouldn’t mind to see a dip under 94 to grab cheaper calls.
Aapl 122 wp .80
NFLX 108 wp 1.80
AAPL evidently best buy will be first outside of aapl to sell their watch..in stores. Will wait a bit on my put opening monday in case it pops some.
Planning on opening AAPL and NFLX puts monday morning, holding CMG puts from last friday. have FB 100 calls but wont be holding through ER.
Fed staff sees one U.S. rate hike this year, inflation stuck in low gear
Reuters |
WASHINGTON July 24, 2015 Last Updated at 22:26 IST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Staff at the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors see a single quarter-point U.S. interest rate increase by year's end, inflation stuck in low gear for five more years and an economy growing more slowly than expected by U.S. policymakers.
Those bearish projections were included in a set of staff forecasts presented to policymakers at their June 16-17 meeting and inadvertently posted on the Fed's website on June 29. (http://bit.ly/1IrnFT8)
The forecasts do not represent the views of the central bankers who set America's interest rate policy. Those policymakers, many based outside of Washington in regional Fed branches, create their own forecasts.
But Board of Governors' staff views are sensitive and influential enough that the Fed normally releases them about five years after they were made.
The disclosure was a result of "procedural errors" at a staff level, a Fed spokeswoman said. The matter has been referred to the Fed Board's Inspector General, the Fed said in a statement. Investigators have been probing the Fed over an alleged leak in 2012 of sensitive information to a private financial newsletter.
The staff expects policymakers will raise their benchmark interest rate, known as the Fed funds rate, enough for it to average 0.35 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015.
That implies one quarter-point hike this year, as the Fed funds rate is currently hovering around 0.13 percent.
The Fed intervenes in markets to keep the rate at target, which it says is between 0 and 0.25 percent. The Fed uses the rate to control the cost of short-term lending between banks.
All but two of the Fed's 17 policymakers expect to raise rates in 2015, according to projections released by the Fed on July 8. Central bankers were divided between raising rates once or twice this year.
The staff views were less optimistic than several other key policymaker forecasts published by the Fed.
In the projections, which stretched from 2015 to 2020, the staff did not expect inflation to ever reach the Fed's 2 percent target. By the fourth quarter of 2020, they saw the PCE inflation index rising 1.94 percent from a year earlier.
The Fed's staff also took a dimmer view of long-run economic growth, expecting gross domestic product to expand 1.74 percent in the year through the fourth quarter of 2020. The views of Fed policymakers for long-term growth range from 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent.
(Reporting by Jason Lange and Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Steve Orlofsky and David Gregorio)
The Fed accidentally released confidential information — and it turned out to be partly wrong
By Ylan Q. Mui July 24
The Federal Reserve said late Friday that a set of confidential staff economic forecasts inadvertently posted online included erroneous information, compounding a blunder that had already begun to raise questions about the central bank's handling of sensitive data.
The secret data was originally posted to the Fed's website June 29 encrypted in the computer code used in the central bank's model of the U.S. economy. A Fed employee spotted the breach earlier this week, and on Friday morning, the Fed publicly identified the confidential information as economic projections prepared by staff for the central bank's June policy-setting meeting. The Fed republished the encrypted data in a more user-friendly table.
But late Friday, the central bank revealed that some of the data actually was not part of the staff's economic projections. In the data inadvertently posted online, for example, the GDP forecast for 2015 is 2.31 percent. The actual staff projection presented to the Fed's policymakers in June was 1.55 percent. There was also a substantial difference in the forecasts for inflation and smaller discrepancies in estimates of potential GDP.
But other information was spot-on. The estimate of the prevailing level of the influential fed funds rate during the fourth quarter was 35 basis points in the data published online as well as in the staff forecast.
Source: Federal Reserve
It was unclear late Friday what the inaccurate numbers represented -- or even if they represented anything at all. A Fed official said that the erroneous data was not part of any staff projections and had never been presented to the Fed's policy-setting committee. The central bank said it is looking into the source of the discrepancy. The Fed has alerted its inspector general of the breach.
The central bank has been dogged in recent years by allegations that it has mishandled sensitive information. Fed decisions have the power to dramatically move financial markets, and investors regularly parse every morsel of information from the central bank for clues to what it will do. The data breaches raise the possibility that some firms could profit inappropriately from central bank mistakes.
“It regrettably appears once again that proper internal controls are not in place to safeguard confidential Federal Reserve information. To say these recurring leaks at the Fed are troubling is a serious understatement and points to the urgent need for accountability reforms,” said Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), head of the Financial Services committee.
Hensarling has subpoenaed the Fed for documents relating to its policy-setting meeting in 2012 and accusations that central bank officials leaked information to financial services firm Medley Global Advisors. The Fed is under investigation by its inspector general and the Justice Department over the matter. In 2013, the central bank accidentally sent minutes of its March meeting to members of Congress a day before they were scheduled for publication. And the Fed has tightened its rules for releasing information to reporters after questions arose over how quickly information could be transmitted to traders in different parts of the country.
A Fed spokesperson said the central bank is looking at setting up more robust security protocols.
They always say data dependent. Almost the only reason to raise is employment but i think its 50-50 chance. I think they want to get it over with. Greece over but china and global slowdown may give them continued pause. Will be interesting for sure.
I think they want to... And the employment numbers gives them an excuse to do so...No idea if they will though.
SPY 196-197 possible if fed raises wed imo. If not, a nice run instead. Range may be jeopardy this week. Makes playing fb on wed tricky
At eod Tues.. Will only be jolding SPY strangle pending the fed decision. Employment numbers can give them the feel to hike and then look out below.
Wed is fed rate hike decision day for sept. Hike or no hike? What say everyone?
CMG 720 puts next week at 5.95.. Rsi has to fall sometime
Make that .16... Eyes hurt... Long day
Aapl out @.18 from .06
Googl out 1/2 @5.60
Googl 662.50 wp @3.00
Aapl 124 wp @.06
Amzn option pricing all wacky so far
Very nice. AMZN plan: open 570ish... Moves to 580 until pullback around 10:00-10:20 to 560...IV gets stripped out then load calls for a double-triple-or more to 590-600....or not lol
Amzn have a run into close in it?
Good mistake lol. Have 50 LLY 88 wc at .61. I thought ER was after close today and wasnt going to hold.. But ER was before open and was somewhat a blowout. Currently 91.37...though who knows where itll open but nice so far
GOOGL: Music Labels Considering Pulling Videos from YouTube Over Payments -NY Post.
The more I research, the more I think I'll be holding my calls for the results. I may place a smaller put hedge/straddle but for much less than my calls. It could obviously go south but this is the holy grail in pharma and the 10mg showed 71% (i think from my memory) improvement, I'm less worried about effectivness than the brain swelling.
I wouldnt think so... They have earnings friday too