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Dew, you noted the other day that there was little data on the long term use of aspirin...
(I'd never heard of the macular degeneration angle.)
Limit Aspirin for Cancer Prevention to Patients Aged 55-75
Elsevier Global Medical News. 2012 Mar 1, S London
SAN FRANCISCO (EGMN) - The safety and efficacy profile of aspirin for preventing esophageal and other cancers is likely to limit its use to people at highest risk, said Dr. Janusz A. Jankowski in a presentation at a meeting on gastrointestinal cancers sponsored by the American Society of Clinical Oncology.
"The commonest question I'm asked is, 'Should I now be taking low-dose aspirin?'," he said. "And my answer to that at this moment in time is indefatigably, no, you should not, unless you have a secondary risk factor," such as Barrett metaplasia or colon polyps (or a secondary cardiovascular risk factor).
Collectively, evidence suggests that taking aspirin reduces cancer risk by about one quarter, according to Dr. Jankowski; however, aspirin has to be taken for at least a decade to see clinically meaningful benefit (Lancet 2011;377:31-41). "Chemoprevention is a very, very long term goal here," he commented. "This is not about taking it for a few years and hoping to get a benefit - it's 10 to 20 years. And that means that the side effect profile ... must be exceptionally low."
The risk of bleeding with aspirin is well known. Rates of any upper gastrointestinal bleeding and serious GI bleeding on the medication are about 4% and 2% per year, respectively, and aspirin particularly increases the risk of spontaneous GI bleeding after age 50 years. However, adding proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy largely attenuates the excess risk.
But new data have also implicated aspirin in the development of macular degeneration (Ophthalmology 2012;119:112-8). "That's another thing that you may have to consider ... Could aspirin be causing something else, as well as preventing something?" said Dr. Jankowski, a visiting professor of GI oncology at the University of Oxford (England) and the Honorary Sir James Black Professor at Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry.
The authors of a recent analysis concluded that healthy people do not experience any significant reduction in either cardiovascular or cancer deaths when they take aspirin (Arch. Intern. Med. 2012;172:209-16), which "has kind of dashed our hopes for primary prevention," he said.
In the secondary prevention realm, the randomized Aspect trial (a phase III, randomized, study of aspirin and esomeprazole chemoprevention in Barrett's metaplasia) is comparing lower- vs. higher-dose PPI therapy using esomeprazole. Each dosage level of esomeprazole is given with or without aspirin in about 2,500 patients with Barrett's esophagus, which is thought to carry a 3%-5% lifetime risk of esophageal cancer.
In this trial, results for cancer and other clinical outcomes are not expected until 2019. But early endoscopic findings suggest that the added aspirin helps promote the appearance of new squamous epithelial islands in areas previously showing Barrett metaplasia, a promising surrogate end point, according to Dr. Jankowski.
At the same time, he cautioned against overreliance on aspirin, saying, "As good as aspirin is, ... it's still not good enough because in fact we still don't know who's going to get a response, and we still think that the best response rate is probably only 20% in the population."
BADCAT (the Barrett's Dysplasia and Cancer Task Force), which exhaustively reviews evidence on the topic, has identified aspirin effectiveness and responsiveness as an area of high priority for research. And because genetics have a major role here, the Chopin study (chemoprevention of premalignant intestinal neoplasia) is assessing genomewide associations in the development and prevention of esophageal cancer, including identification of aspirin-response genes.
Summing up the evidence on the use of aspirin to prevent esophageal and other cancers, Dr. Jankowski predicted, "In the next 2 years, there may very well be a recommendation that if you have secondary risk factors for cancer, like Barrett's ... that you may be given aspirin therapy in addition to your proton pump inhibitor."
Only people in a fairly narrow age range will have net benefit, based on currently available data. "Aspirin is a wonderful agent. Having said that, there is no evidence whatsoever that even if you've got secondary risks factors for cardiac disease or cancer, you should take your aspirin before 55 years of age," he explained. And starting aspirin after age 75 years is not justified given the current human lifespan and the need for prolonged use to achieve benefit.
"The window of taking aspirin is between 55 and 75," he concluded, adding "while I am an enthusiast of aspirin ... it is only part of the jigsaw, and we still need even to answer that part."
Dr. Jankowski disclosed that he is a consultant to and receives research funding and honoraria from AstraZeneca.
Nusub:
I notice from an entry on the Values Board that you have RDY in the SI contest. Was that based on pharmaceutical excellence or demographic tailwind, or neither.
MON earnings out
Monsanto Co.'s MON +0.76% fiscal second-quarter profit rose 19% as the agricultural biotech company turned in sales ahead of expectations with help from a strong selling season in the U.S. and continued growth in Latin America.
His skepticism re EXEL sure saved me money.
Then Fidelity is wrong, not necessarily surprising.
Chocolate Consumption and Lower Body Mass Index
Interesting. I didn't buy the article, but I wonder if they used a standard chocolate bar with defined sugar content. Sugar content can vary widely across various brands.
Also, what do they mean by "moderate"? Define your terms, dammit.
(The answers are probably in the article, which I was too cheap to buy.)
Trouble is a lot of smart people (like me) have been thinking this for some time, but shorting the bond has been a quick trip to losses.
I have to think they may finally be right, but I no longer have the cojones for this fight. (And my real name is not Bill Gross.)
You're right. Bayer started selling aspirin in the 19th century. Not enough time to be confident.
The bottom half, not the top half. But the top half is the only part of the sausage that requires his approval. Bottom half "approval" is grandstanding.
And the obvious answer, given no bleeding, yes.
What's to lose?
From reading the NYT article, where we stand now leads to serious inequities.
Courts uphold preemption doctrine for patient lawsuits against generic drugs:
This pig is a key word identifying a yahooligan not to be taken seriously.
Sold 1/2 my stake at 15.10. Now comes the hard part. I suspect there's more down side to come tomorrow, no matter whether RIDA was really of importance to ARIA's future or not.
Retreat to my usual cop out - wait until 10 o'clock before deciding.
WSJ. It's both
Justice Breryer said the Prometheus patents did little more than claim an exclusive right to observe the natural phenomenon of how the human body reacts to ingesting certain drugs. Any additional inventive steps claimed by the patents "consist of well-understood, routine, conventional activity already engaged in by the scientific community," he wrote in a 24-page opinion.
My guess is that the odds are roughly 13:1 that the cloud will turn out to be insubstantial, like most clouds.
Any chance share price will fall through Ichimoku cloud support?
Yes, that's what I also gathered from a quick read of the ARIA board, so the liveliness was rather mysterious.
It has now pulled back.
ARIA: And judging from the chart starting around 1:30, that discussion is proceeding benignly.
4/16, pay 5/7
Click on Last Read in that post and when you reopen Biotech Values you will find that you are over 90000 posts behind. Each with how many sentences?
Heck, Gone with the Wind has only some 27000 sentences (per Amazon).
Dew and his people are the new Tolstoy.
The overall trend is consistent with buying high and selling low (which is what contango does to you) but I sure can't explain that gap in early 2011.
Many people apparently don't read this, and you can't fault the company for non disclosure - it's all here:
The investment seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of natural gas. The trust will invest in futures contracts on natural gas traded on the NYMEX that is the near month contract to expire.
Now if it ever went into backwardation - that's another story.
Discovery Laboratories, Inc. (Nasdaq:DSCO - News) today announced that it is offering to sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.
The Company also expects to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase additional shares of common stock to cover over-allotments, if any. Lazard Capital Markets LLC is acting as the sole book-running manager for the offering, Stifel Nicolaus Weisel is acting as co-lead manager, and ROTH Capital Partners, LLC is acting as co-manager. While the offering is expected to price before 9:30 am EDT on March 16, 2012, the offering is subject to market conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether or when the offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or terms of the offering.
Given its structure (rolling futures) be careful of UNG when NG is in contango.
Since when do rating agencies (all 15 of them!) rate stocks?
We certainly have a strong candidate.
Look at his profile. Is he perhaps obsessed with DEW?
Do I understand correctly that the prices for one unit (box of how many?) of Prilosec vary from $222 down to $19? For the same amount?
Does insurance still even cover Prilosec now that it's OTC?
Not bad for a first post...
Merrill - can't give the full analysis since I no longer have an account with ML. I just get the email updates.
Regeneron Pharma (REGN) has been added to the US 1 list today. Today's closing price will be the addition price for the stock.
I"m surprised you've stayed this long. We go BOOOOOOOOOOOOM doesn't strike me as your style.
I'll take my chances. Though I might change my mind if Corzine were to join Schwab or Fidelity.
If Schwab or Fidelity were to collapse it wouldn't matter on what market or in what form my securities were held. It would evidence a systemic problem.
My main concern with such stocks would be liquidity of the market in which they trade, and for that reason I have steered clear of them.
They say InterActive brokers provides good access to most foreign markets, but I have chosen not to use them.
I thought the FT piece was more of an interesting academic exercise than practical advice. For me, anyway.
Snipped from the FT
What’s the best way of investing in emerging markets? Local companies or multinationals with big exposure to emerging markets?
How about getting the best of both worlds, says Martijn Cremers, of Yale University. Cremers shows in a study published on Monday that emerging market-listed affiliates of multinationals perform much better in the stock market than their parents. The 92 such affiliates comfortably out-perform both emerging markets and developed world markets. Take a bow, Hindustan Unilever, Walmart Mexico, and Coca-Cola Icecek (Turkey).
Fido allows extended hours trading.
To place an order that will be eligible for execution during the extended hours trading session, access extended hours trading during the session hours. Orders may be placed in the extended hours trading sessions Monday through Friday, from 7:00 to 9:15 a.m. and from 4 to 8 p.m. Eastern Time except for weekends and market holidays.
Has anyone heard from Noriel Roubini lately?
Don't need him. I have a direct line to Meredith Whitney.
Commissioner Hamburg will be on CNBC at 4:40 - if already published, apologies
My concern is the validity of predicting the vote based on the voters, rather than the drug itself.
What he is saying in essence is that he has a pretty good idea how a Catholic bishop would vote on abortion.
Following the link to his site, on 2/19 he was predicting a yes vote. I assume that's been superseded by AF's info.
I thought it was interesting is that Indian facilities are reversing the medical tourism flow - setting things up so that the tourist can now stay at home.
An interesting subset of the tailwind. Google "Indian hospitals Africa" and you'll see that Indian hospitals are active setting up shop in Africa, having first developed a clientele of well off Africans traveling to India for medical treatment.
The deep pockets theory may create a slippery slope to joint liability. I believe that has been discussed here..
I thought that several knowledgeable posters here had addressed the question of Watson's liability and had concluded that in practice it would be joint and several. As the deep pocket, Watson would effectively find itself at risk for A's misdeeds.
As to the billions (or less) of any potential award I don't have the background to form any sort of useful opinion