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Nice, shorted some SINA today at 10.3 and wondered what was causing the after hours move down.
Zeev or anyone have any thoughts on the Chinese Internet stocks? SINA, SOHU, NTES. I believe Wahz was a little positive on these but can't seem to remember. They seem to be getting awfully pricey in this market - short candidates?
Yes, just be careful with it. I know it seems like the only laggard in the bunch but there is a good reason for it. And Tom Siebel has not endeared himself to many so many competitors have a personal interest in seeing him fail.
Be careful with SEBL. Heard a RUMOR that they may have totally blew the quarter even though the other Enterprise Software players didn't. SEBL is losing market share very quickly as CRM only doesn't make and enterprise software company anymore.
I guess better late than never. Laura should have been cutting all those ratings last week or last quarter.
mlsoft, I agree with your post which is why I prefaced my previous post with "perceived." I think Japan is still in deep trouble but US Pension funds and such must think we're in some bigger trouble here in the US to be switching some assets to Japan right now. Japan is not often up after a down day in the US markets.
I believe the perceived "flight to quality" buying up the Nikkei today will be even more detrimental to US Stocks in the near future. The fall of the dollar is another continuing concern weighing on the market.
Sure, MSFT shot up to 57 on the split announcement. That was the sign to short it right there. Why a split announcement without the earnings????? Now you know why and I agree that was downright deceptive, something I really didn't expect from MSFT to be honest.
I think options expiry is the only thing saving this market from the big down. Tomorrow may be a great day to get in some more shorts. Any ramp is worth shorting here.
The down is on strong now. MSFT misses top line revenue and takes down full year revenue guidance.
Bearmove, funny that almost exactly when you posted the advance / decline phenomenon, we started tanking. Will you be clown short going into IBM and MSFT earnings tonight based on this?
Thanks for the valuable input.
Re: QLGC. We're going lower in this market. You need to have earnings like SYMC in order to sustain a P/E of 50. Valuations will come back to earth - it's good to see.
Wahz, I'm not sure this thread will represent the general public by the way. I was turned on to this thread about a year ago from some very successful traders who trade both long and short and have made a boatload mostly short these past few years. There are quite a few very smart people on this thread (better traders than I for sure). I think it is more realistic than the general public or the talking heads.
lower for me wahz - re: your survey.
Fed Reserves, 21.75 expires tomorrow? That is large - I can't see it on the Fed Res web site - can you provide the detail?
Thx.
JMKel, INTC may weather the storm here but it seems to me that "as CAPEX goes, the market goes" which is why the very low guidance may really hurt the market here combined with the fairly rich valuations call I would say the "run for the hills" is definitely on strong at least until MSFT and IBM have their turn.
Think he covered his shorts before the close.
You're getting exactly what I got at first. They try to pawn you off on Cybertrade so you become Cybertrade's client. We're using the Cybertrade trading software anyway at Schwab (I assume you are) so I just told them I am happy with the Cybertrade software but want to stay a Schwab client. It took a couple managers to get this approved for me so prepare for a fairly long haul - it took me a month but they can do it.
Loren, I had to threaten to close my account with Schwab before they agreed to the pricing. My argument was "hey everyone is offering this rate and lower so you guys need to." I had been a customer for a while and had a decent size account as well.
Loren, not sure what you're paying at Schwab but I negotiated a 1 penny per share rate as long as my trades are a minimum of 1000 shares which they almost always are (and some minimum of maybe 60 trades per quarter?) That's $10 per 1,000 shares traded which I think is competitive given their higher level of customer service and executions are OK and they are getting more and more shares available to short these days.
Are you trying to tell us Jack Welch, L. Ellison, A. Bryant, Gates, Nicholas ect.. work harder than the employees they employ (whom BTW, get a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of the CEO's obscene salary)?
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Actually they do, believe it or not. Many CEOs may not have the ability to execute (the guys above do) but most work very very hard.
Keep 'em coming Sykes. When you posted this morning I took a quick look and HITK was low 29s. Now a full point and a half lower after being 2 points lower earlier in a relatively up market.
I'd say you definitely called that one. The kid was ON bigtime on that call.
I for one don't mind the cockiness at all, especially with that kind of accuracy.
Wahz, did your momo-trend indicator get stronger during those 2 days it was late in December? When it is late have you been able to ascertain any patterns or non-patterns during those late days?
Almost all cash now but thinking risks are high to hold for too long although we may have a bit more of a bounce.
" said earlier, next week will see good earning from QLGC so by the 15th is when we should get topping if any, the "if any" stem from the fact that a close above 1447 is quite possible today and that should open the door to a challenge of 1520 or so and a change in the turnips stance to mildly bullish but still very high risk."
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Clarification on the "if any" please. Are you saying we could blow through 1520 and not get any topping or if we get any more topping at all the max will be around 1520 and either way we're going back down the Nassacre path in the next few months? Sorry for being English challenged here.
Just covered most of my shorts at the open on the apparent strength. Don't like doing this but also don't want to be standing in the way of the PPT. Actually surprised the nonfarm payrolls number reversed the futures as much as it did but I'll take the gift. Hoping to reload later because I believe fundamentals are very weak.
JDAASOC, never did thank you for that detailed message you sent me re: your total car discount from 12/20/02. Thanks again - still haven't got around to purchasing a new car yet but may sometime soon. The info. certainly helped.
I'm back in your bear camp MLSOFT as of NAS 1440 today: IBM, BSC, GS, MER, JPM, MMM, TYC, KLAC, EBAY, MSFT, QQQ.
Was heavy long two days ago and sold all.
Let the carnage begin.
AMAT falling in the face of this run. Still a rabbit you follow?
Thanks Zeev, I never expect a response "at once."
Zeev, what percent cash did you finish the day? For some reason, it appears you don't have the time or would rather not respond to my previous queries on % cash. If that's the case, please let me know and I will stop asking. It helps me as a general indicator which is why I ask.
Zeev, what % cash are you now and do you plan on being at EOD?
Thx.
Zeev, if you have some time this evening, could you tell us how you will be handling the maginot line of 1347 tomorrow in some level of detail? i.e. if we cross it by more than X points, you will increase (or decrease) cash from 10% to X percent?
As I am long, I am looking for the rally as well but want to know how you will bail if you will in advance.
Thanks.
COO, SSTI, and now CCMP. We need more COCOs in this lot to balance out the dogs.
Zeev, CCMP went below your stop of $46.80. If it's there on a closing basis will you exit?
All this talk about religious organizations supporting or not supporting war is somewhat interesting as most wars are based on religious differences. Ever imagine how many wars could have been avoided altogether if we all abandoned religion?
Peace on Earth and Happy Holidays to All!
JDA, If possible, could you detail each of the discounts that add up to $14K on a $24K car? We're thinking of getting a new car here soon as the deals seem pretty good. Never bought an american car but with these savings may look into it.
Thanks
Thank you. The second part of my question queries if you will lighten up on a break of 1347 and if so, how much? 30%? I'm trying to set up some good levels of stop losses as I may be out a good part of next week. Our crossover stocks that I'm long I believe are:
BRCD
CDWC
CCMP
CYMI
EK
EXPE
IDPH
INTC
LLL
MU
NVDA
QCOM
SNDK
ZRAN
I'll probably lighten this load significantly if 1347 breaks but wanted to get your thoughts if possible? Thanks.
Zeev, are you close to 0% cash right now since that was the plan around 1370? Also, I assume you will stay that way unless we break 1347 or around there - please confirm. I know you were at 0% earlier today and wanted to see how you left the day and at what levels to the downside you will lighten up if any.
I've gotten about 50% long over the last few days.
Looks like help is on the way fast!
Just broke 1367. Fakeout?
Zeev, are you still in KLAC?