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I had linked a different page, but it reverted to the homepage. Here's a link to the full PDF file.
http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/pdf.asp?urlkey=424002347563151039
Three Peaks and Domed House Top confirmed by Traders Almanac.
Hi Welles. This post replies to one in which you brought the pattern to the boards attention. Check this out...http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/default.asp?action=newsletterarchives&urlkey=4240018136050010...
Mutual fund flows March 23... Showing signs of risk aversion as high yield and emerging markets take big hits.
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $1.706 billion in the week ended 3/23/05 with Growth & Income funds reporting the largest inflows ($450 Mil) since 1/21/04 and Equity Income funds reporting the largest inflows in 11 weeks ($430 Mil), and more funds reporting inflows to that sector (136) than any week since 4/22/1998;
Financial/Banking funds and Energy funds report the largest inflows of any sector ($411 Mil and $401 Mil, respectively), because of large ETF inflows:
$456 Mil to Select Sector SPDRs Financial (47% fund assets);
$357 Mil to Select Sector SPDRs Energy (17% fund assets);
Small Cap Growth/Value funds report net cash outflows of -$728 million, largely because of outflows totaling: -$568 Million from iShares Russell 2000 Index fund;
Non-domestic Equity funds report inflows totaling $591 million as International Equity funds report inflows of $343 million;
Asia Pacific (Ex-Japan) funds report the largest net cash outflows (-$49 Mil) since 5/19/04 because of:
-$35 Mil from iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index fund;
-$19 Mil from iShares MSCI South Korea Index fund;
Emerging Markets Equity funds report the largest net cash outflows (-$265 Mil) since 5/19/04;
Latin America funds report net outflows of -$45 million because of:
-$20 Mil from iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index fund;
-$15 Mil from iShares MSCI Brazil Index fund;
-$7 Mil from iShares MSCI Mexico Index fund;
Taxable Bond funds report net cash outflows of -$411 million as High Yield Corporate Bond funds report net outflows of -$1.5 billion, the largest from that sector since 5/12/04
http://www.amgdata.com/
Inverted Ndx chart. A rise to 1500-1502 would make a decent short entry. 50dma looks destined to cross 200d. I get a better perspective on shorts by inverting...LOL
Funds won't be much help, but they may do some rotation.
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $1.974 billion in the week ended 3/16/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 84% of the inflows ($1.656 Bil);
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.959 billion in the week ended 3/9/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 80% of the Inflows ($2.367 Bil);
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.842 billion in the week ended 3/2/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 92% of the inflows ($2.606 Bil); http://www.amgdata.com/
LOL...I had been considering inets for buy Thursday on some positive divergances, but price action just keeps fading down.
On TA...I think it's lost much of it's effectiveness because too many are using it...I've noticed, sometimes, a contrarian approach to obvious TA works.
My next concern is are too many using E Wave? If there is, it will lose it's effectiveness too.
And finally 52% of trading is done by computers...? TA and Wave theory are based on what humans have done in the past...no?
Nice work dude.
When given a choice...semi log. I believe it presents a more accurate picture but I have no evidence to support that claim.
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $1.974 billion in the week ended 3/16/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 84% of the inflows ($1.656 Bil);
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.959 billion in the week ended 3/9/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 80% of the Inflows ($2.367 Bil);
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.842 billion in the week ended 3/2/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 92% of the inflows ($2.606 Bil); http://www.amgdata.com/
You have it right Newly...Mutual funds are probably only covering redemptions with new inflows. most not staying in U.S.
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $1.974 billion in the week ended 3/16/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 84% of the inflows ($1.656 Bil);
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.959 billion in the week ended 3/9/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 80% of the Inflows ($2.367 Bil);
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.842 billion in the week ended 3/2/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 92% of the inflows ($2.606 Bil); http://www.amgdata.com/
i tried juggling in college a few times. the usual result was that i dropped all balls. fun for awhile then it loses its lustre.
Sounds like my attempts at Basketball. LOL
Nobody believes in U.S. anymore? Data addition
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $1.974 billion in the week ended 3/16/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 84% of the inflows ($1.656 Bil);
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.959 billion in the week ended 3/9/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 80% of the Inflows ($2.367 Bil);
Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.842 billion in the week ended 3/2/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 92% of the inflows ($2.606 Bil); http://www.amgdata.com/
I had forgotten about the different chart settings of semi log/linear probably why I had a conflict in my charting. Thanks
Since the month is not over, all that says is they need to close March above 1516 to keep it intact.
What do you put Monthly trendline support at for the NDX?
Just checked and using the Java function at big charts it looks like we're below already. The number I came up with was 1516.
I'll work on getting a close estimate of where that tl support lies.
A break of the monthly trendline should be bear mkt confirmation. No?
Look's like more of a short setup than long.
So do I. Housing and Auto's appear to be breaking down as reflected by stock prices. Inflation likely on the rise and earnings on the decline. Ndx breaking down. Yada, Yada.
See little to rekindle bullish enthusiasm and speculation.
On Dow theory...
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
I think the next few months are going to be a transition time. Strong rallies and strong declines. With the big hit in 2006.
At some point the world has to move away from oil...a given because of it's nature as a non renewable resource. He's probably right as high cost is a strong impetus.
Maybe that's why big oil doesn't want to drill much or build new refineries?
Added the whole month of Feb. I attempted to short 1530 or above but only ended up with an average cost at 1530 because some were below.
Hope I'm not being too cute in getting out now. Still dismal at .36 gain ytd. The big hit at the beginning of the year has been hard to recover.
Oil Top Sets up Next (Last?) Market Leg Up
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/markets/index.html
As of this morning, our expectations of $57 a barrel have been met - and exceeded. This has very significant consequences for how the markets will behave in the near future. We have considered numerous theoretical possibilities; The following scenario is in, our opinion, the highest probability:
Oil makes an intermediate top in the $57 to 59 area. The pullback from this level allows markets to rally.
When oil once again finds its footing - (our guesstimate is $48-51) and heads higher again, that sets up a double top in the major indices.
It is possible (though far from definitive) that this could even mark the high point for equities in 2005. Regardless, as Oil rallies back towards its prior highs, stocks run out of energy, and start heading back towards August 2004 levels.
We find it ironic that oil doubters -- the ones who were so harshly negative when Crude was between $40 and $45 -- have suddenly found religon. We recall hearing about the $20 "terror premium," the $15 bumb that speculators were causing. We wereb even warned that the Chinese economy was slowing (that implied lower oil also).
Indeed, we had heard every "excuse" for the price of oil - except for the one that mattered: A gradually improving global economy, one that was concentrated in Asia but particularly in China and India. We would be remiss if we failed to note that over half of the vehicles in our neighborhood are gas-guzzling SUVs. To be fair, we must acknowledge our own tendencies towards high HP vehicles and inefficient driving styles; At least we are inclined towards the more fuel-efficient manual transmissions (6 speeds preferably).
As oil passed $50 on the way to $55, something intriguing occurred: The Oil Bears became rip roaring Bulls. We now enter what we academically refer to as “the stupid phase,” with calls for $100 crude and unsustainable gains in the energy sector.
Oil has become a crowded trade, with Speculators shifting to net long crude futures and options, as opposed to a more recent position of close to "net flat."
As someone who has been bullish on Oil since December 2003, we are comfortable stating our expectations of an intermediate oil top between $57 -59. We expect the market’s response to any pullback from those levels to be positive, but short lived.
As we have previously stated, use this opportunity to reduce margin and, where appropriate, marry puts to long positions.
Does look like a reversal stick but will probably need retested if/when the bounce runs out of juice.
Took profits on the short and went 10% long NDX. Risk being short has increased, note oversold condition of weekly indicators.
Inverted Chart
Me too. :)
If so It'll get sold hard Monday as Opex is unwound. Many looking to sell a bounce here.
Sox not going anywhere. Semi's have been commoditized and lead the commodity related stocks when their trending.
Commodity related stocks/CRB ratio. Stocks lead so my guess is CRB is about done here.
Man, they don't have any choice but to try to save it today. Otherwise 1501-1502 Ndx becomes resistance.
Short squeeze in a dull market.
Inflation's on the way. Note RSI 5. Commodity related stocks in the S&P are likely to take a hit when this thing corrects.