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HTM <link> as I write 127k bid for a stock which only does 394 vol ave for 20MAvol
Wow this should move very quickly with that sort of bid $$$ flowing in
jmho
MSTX <1-2-14 My Chart & notes> - Bullish imo
Link to bullish info http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=96064693
THLD Volume Alert nearing 2x 20MA vol 6/30 Ph3 small short % fair cash.
Today 915K so far
20MA Vol 518k
Very bullish day - starting new leg up jmh0
THLD Volume Alert nearing 2x 20MA vol <link back> 6/30 Ph3 small short % fair cash.
Today 915K so far
20MA Vol 518k
Very bullish day - starting new leg up jmh0
HTM<link back to today's early Volume ALERT when it was 20% over the 20MA
NOW it is 2X the 20 MA volume
Now 838+K vol
20MA Vol 419K
This is going very well today and a tad beyond just rattling the saber, now the saber is out of the sheath
BDSI <link back for 1/9 notes & Volume Alert for new leg> PDUFA 6/7
BDSI <link back for 1/9 notes> PDUFA 6/7
PGNX<link back twice to annotated chart> Moving well again today well in advance of the 3/10 adcom. This one has huge legs if things go well. <link back once to article>
PGNX <link back twice to annotated chart> <link back once to strong bullish article> Moving well again today well in advance of the 3/10 adcom and EOM cat
AEZS <annotated chart from 1/10 link back > It is making very nice gains. On the move with a Nov PDUFA
AEZS <annotated chart from 1/10 link back > It is making very nice gains.
HTM VOLUME ALERT 23% over the 20MAvol in first 30 Mins - trading $ up . Imo Someone knows something.
I hold and have held this one for a while, it has been setting in support this week in the .44 -.45 area and now within the past 2 sessions it seems to be rattling the saber, today a lot with an early volume surge.
VOLUME TRADED 486k vs 20 MA vol 394k
<link back annotated chart> made 1-7-14
HTM VOLUME ALERT 23% over the 20MAvol in first 30 Mins - trading $ up . Imo Someone knows something.
I hold and have held this one for a while, it has been setting in support this week in the .44 -.45 area and now within the past 2 sessions it seems to be rattling the saber, today a lot with an early volume surge.
VOLUME TRADED 486k vs 20 MA vol 394k
HTM I have it also, have for a while now. Waiting for it to break and hold close .50. I think it may not be very many sessions, then, with volume, the chasing begins.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=htm
ACHN just the article Smurf
ACHN Nice ARticle: This one is Chasing the HUGE gap
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/achillion-reports-hcv-pipeline-progress-112500226.html
PBMD I think this will do very well I have some high and some far lower however the average is still a tad red. I think it should retrace back up now to the area it was a while ago. It will fill the gap when it climbs over 2.30 obviously but there is a huge hole between 1.30 and 2.30, should make for a nice swing.
ACHN Nice ARticle: This one is Chasing the HUGE gap
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/achillion-reports-hcv-pipeline-progress-112500226.html
ACHN Nice ARticle: 100% agree CN- "Chasing the gap "
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/achillion-reports-hcv-pipeline-progress-112500226.html
GTXI This stock has been slowly ratcheting up for months since the big gap down and the dead cat bounce on Aug 16th with the bounce in Early-mid Sept.
They have a PH2 coming 2Q so it is probable it will have a run of some sort coming off that August crash then going mostly side ways for 4+ months.
jmho
If this PH2 passes investors well might see the stock as way undervalued. Hard to say. Likely someone knows some thing it has been ratcheting up for months it had the dead cat in Sept and folks took profit so it sank then it starting ratcheting since then, fits and starts now to higher levels. jmho
PGNX The following article is very interesting. JMHO but this one could be a pretty big deal, they are saying $30, if the drug is passed, is reasonable over 1-3 years. That is 5x what it is today. Whether a B&H or a Swing if things go well right now it has 2 catalysts one EOM Jan, and one later 3/10 Adcom
Here is the JAN 7th Article
BioPharma Catalyst And Investment Pick In Focus: Progenics
Jan. 7, 2014 8:44 AM ET | 8 comments | About: PGNX, Includes: DNDN, REGN, SCMP, SLXP
Disclosure: I am long PGNX. (More...)
Written by Scott Matusow
Catalyst events for developmental pharmas usually mean the associated stock prices see good appreciation in the period leading up to these events. As we get within a few days to a catalyst event, the stock price hits a peak, and many traders take profit from their shares while others roll these into the stock's option chain. If traders and investors feel a company will see positive results from these catalysts, they normally purchase call options. Today we focus on a company that has two significant catalyst events quickly approaching.
Progenics Pharmaceuticals (PGNX)
Progenics engages in the research and development of biotechnology product candidates in the areas of oncology and therapeutics worldwide. The company offers *Relistor (methylnaltrexone bromide), a subcutaneous injection for the treatment of opioid induced constipation (OIC) in patients with advanced illnesses such as cancer, as well as for the treatment of OIC in patients with non-cancer pain. It also offers Relistor-Oral, which has completed Phase III testing for the treatment of OIC in patients with non-cancer pain. It also provides oncology medicines, including PSMA ADC that is in Phase II testing for treatment of prostate and other cancers.
The first drug we want to talk about in more detail is Relistor, and is the only prescription medicine approved in the United States to treat this form of constipation. Relistor is now approved in the U.S. and over 50 other countries around the world. In the U.S., Relistor is marketed by its commercial partner Salix Pharma (SLXP), a leading specialty pharmaceutical company focusing on gastrointestinal diseases. It is sold outside the U.S. by sub-licenses of Salix and Ono Pharmaceutical in Japan.
The interesting thing that Progenics is doing with this drug is that it's trying to increase the patient population that the company can treat with it. Salixa and Progenics has an advisory panel meeting (ADCOM) coming up in March of this year to review the supplemental new drug application (SNDA) for Relistor expanded usage in OIC chronic pain. If approved, this additional form of Relistor would now treat patients taking opioids for non-cancer pain who suffer from OIC as a result. This population includes patients taking opioids for conditions such as back pain or joint pain.
In July of 2012, Salix and Progenics Pharmaceuticals received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) following its review of the sNDA for the Relistor injection for subcutaneous use for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation in adult patients with chronic, non-cancer pain - the CRL requested additional clinical data.
Sources tell us the reason for the CRL was because according to the FDA, Salix submitted incomplete safety data. It has been over one-and-a-half years since the CRL, and both companies after extensive meetings with the FDA, engaged the new FDA appeals process believing they have the complete safety data to ensure the FDA approves the sNDA. As a result of the appeals process and meetings with the regulatory body, the FDA assigned the ADCOM.
We believe come March, the ADCOM will recommend approval for the sNDA to the FDA, and the FDA will likely accept this recommendation and approve Relistor for this chronic pain indication.
Progenics is set to receive $50M for sNDA approval and 200M in milestone payments from Salix.
Up to $50.0 million upon U.S. marketing approval of an oral formulation of Relistor.
Up to $200.0 million of commercialization milestone payments upon achievement of specified U.S. sales targets.
Progenics Proprietary Drug Candidate if eventually approved should warrant a market cap well north of $1B.
Sucampo Pharma (SCMP) - Amitiza is the top approved treatment for OIC in patients with chronic pain. In July 2013, Amitiza was launched in the U.S. for the treatment of OIC in adults with chronic, non-cancer pain. As stated, we expect ADCOM to give a positive recommendation for Relistor's sNDA, which would boost sales significantly of the drug and should give Amitiza a run for its money.
Progenics' lead developmental drug candidate named PSMA ADC is about to get a lot of exposure. PSMA ADC is a fully human monoclonal antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) directed against prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA), a protein found at high levels on the surface of prostate cancer cells and also on the new blood vessels of a number of other types of solid tumors.
Topline data release on the chemotherapy experienced cohort of the Phase II PSMA ADC trial will be presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology's (OTC:ASCO) 2014 Genitourinary Cancers Symposium Meeting in San Francisco on January 30 to February 1, 2014.
In a December 6 press release, Robert J. Israel, M.D., Executive Vice President, Medical Affairs, stated:
PSMA ADC is the most advanced antibody drug conjugate in clinical development to treat prostate cancer. Based on the data seen with PSMA ADC in chemotherapy experienced patients, we have decided to explore whether this compound can also benefit men in the less clinically advanced chemotherapy naïve setting.
Basically, the above states the company sees the potential for the drug to be used in greater measure without as much chemotherapy dependence. Essentially, the company is seeking the eventual expanded use of the drug.
Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in northern European countries and the US, and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in men in most western countries. Needless to say, the topline data here, if positive, should be a very big price driver for the company.
PSMA ADC could end up being in direct competition to Dendreon's (DNDN) Provenge. Dendreon has fallen on hard times recently mainly because of poor management. It's hard to see Provenge competing with much of anything while the asset is still in the hands of current management. Therefore, we feel Dendreon is likely to be acquired this year by a mega pharma, which we believe will be Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
PSMA ADC could also end up being a competitor to Sanofi's (SNY) Zaltrap - Zaltrap received FDA approval in August of 2012. Zaltrap was developed in a partnership deal by Regeneron Pharma (REGN). Under the terms of its partnership with Regeneron, Sanofi gets half of the drug's profits and Regeneron has to repay half of Sanofi's development costs. Many analysts believe Zaltrap will see peak annual sales of $300M to $400M.
Conclusion
With two important near-term catalysts quickly approaching, we believe Progenics should attract many biotech catalyst traders. The first catalyst is the release of topline data from PSMA ADC at the end of this month at the ASCO conference. The second will be the FDA ADCOM meeting, which is tentatively scheduled for March of this year. Both cataysts are important for the company moving forward. PSMA ADC is the company's proprietary drug, currently without a partner. If Phase II data here is good, and we believe it will be, Progenics should be able to attract a mutually beneficial partnership with a large pharma as Regeneron has done with Sanofi with its drug Zaltrap.
It's also worth noting that Progenics did a clean and strong financing deal in June of 2013, raising nearly $35M in a warrant free deal. Because of this, the company can choose to "go-it-alone" with PSMA ADC if it chooses to. Either way, we expect these catalyst and their potential positive effects to drive the company's stock price significantly higher in the short term, perhaps even touching the $7 level. Progenics has a current market cap around $340M, which we feel is extremely low at this time in lieu of the catalysts coming up.
Time will tell the long-term story with Progenics moving forward in the next two to three years. If Relistor receives approval for both the recent sNDA filing and for its PSMA ADC, a stock price north of $30/share, or around a $2B market cap, is in line if management executes correctly.
It's also worth noting that The Bakers own a little over 4M shares of Progenics. We believe their position in this one will eventually pay off very well as most of their positions of the last two years or so have.
Our short-term price target opinion on Progenics is around $6.50, with a one year target opinion of $11-$12 a share, or roughly $700M, based on positive Phase II PSMA ADC topline data and Relistor sNDA approval.
*Relistor is a trade-marked name owned by Salix Pharmaceuticals.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational and entertainment use only, and should not be construed as professional investment advice. They are my opinions only. Trading stocks is risky - always be sure to know and understand your risk tolerance. You can incur substantial financial losses in any trade or investment. Always do your own due diligence before buying and selling any stock, and/or consult with a licensed financial adviser.
PGNX<link back for annotated chart and entry> The following article is far more optimistic than my chart reading than what I was thinking originally. JMHO but this one could be a pretty big deal as a B&H if things go well and as a swing with 2 cats one EOM and one later 3/10 Adcom
Here is the JAN 7th Article
BioPharma Catalyst And Investment Pick In Focus: Progenics
Jan. 7, 2014 8:44 AM ET | 8 comments | About: PGNX, Includes: DNDN, REGN, SCMP, SLXP
Disclosure: I am long PGNX. (More...)
Written by Scott Matusow
Catalyst events for developmental pharmas usually mean the associated stock prices see good appreciation in the period leading up to these events. As we get within a few days to a catalyst event, the stock price hits a peak, and many traders take profit from their shares while others roll these into the stock's option chain. If traders and investors feel a company will see positive results from these catalysts, they normally purchase call options. Today we focus on a company that has two significant catalyst events quickly approaching.
Progenics Pharmaceuticals (PGNX)
Progenics engages in the research and development of biotechnology product candidates in the areas of oncology and therapeutics worldwide. The company offers *Relistor (methylnaltrexone bromide), a subcutaneous injection for the treatment of opioid induced constipation (OIC) in patients with advanced illnesses such as cancer, as well as for the treatment of OIC in patients with non-cancer pain. It also offers Relistor-Oral, which has completed Phase III testing for the treatment of OIC in patients with non-cancer pain. It also provides oncology medicines, including PSMA ADC that is in Phase II testing for treatment of prostate and other cancers.
The first drug we want to talk about in more detail is Relistor, and is the only prescription medicine approved in the United States to treat this form of constipation. Relistor is now approved in the U.S. and over 50 other countries around the world. In the U.S., Relistor is marketed by its commercial partner Salix Pharma (SLXP), a leading specialty pharmaceutical company focusing on gastrointestinal diseases. It is sold outside the U.S. by sub-licenses of Salix and Ono Pharmaceutical in Japan.
The interesting thing that Progenics is doing with this drug is that it's trying to increase the patient population that the company can treat with it. Salixa and Progenics has an advisory panel meeting (ADCOM) coming up in March of this year to review the supplemental new drug application (SNDA) for Relistor expanded usage in OIC chronic pain. If approved, this additional form of Relistor would now treat patients taking opioids for non-cancer pain who suffer from OIC as a result. This population includes patients taking opioids for conditions such as back pain or joint pain.
In July of 2012, Salix and Progenics Pharmaceuticals received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) following its review of the sNDA for the Relistor injection for subcutaneous use for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation in adult patients with chronic, non-cancer pain - the CRL requested additional clinical data.
Sources tell us the reason for the CRL was because according to the FDA, Salix submitted incomplete safety data. It has been over one-and-a-half years since the CRL, and both companies after extensive meetings with the FDA, engaged the new FDA appeals process believing they have the complete safety data to ensure the FDA approves the sNDA. As a result of the appeals process and meetings with the regulatory body, the FDA assigned the ADCOM.
We believe come March, the ADCOM will recommend approval for the sNDA to the FDA, and the FDA will likely accept this recommendation and approve Relistor for this chronic pain indication.
Progenics is set to receive $50M for sNDA approval and 200M in milestone payments from Salix.
Up to $50.0 million upon U.S. marketing approval of an oral formulation of Relistor.
Up to $200.0 million of commercialization milestone payments upon achievement of specified U.S. sales targets.
Progenics Proprietary Drug Candidate if eventually approved should warrant a market cap well north of $1B.
Sucampo Pharma (SCMP) - Amitiza is the top approved treatment for OIC in patients with chronic pain. In July 2013, Amitiza was launched in the U.S. for the treatment of OIC in adults with chronic, non-cancer pain. As stated, we expect ADCOM to give a positive recommendation for Relistor's sNDA, which would boost sales significantly of the drug and should give Amitiza a run for its money.
Progenics' lead developmental drug candidate named PSMA ADC is about to get a lot of exposure. PSMA ADC is a fully human monoclonal antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) directed against prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA), a protein found at high levels on the surface of prostate cancer cells and also on the new blood vessels of a number of other types of solid tumors.
Topline data release on the chemotherapy experienced cohort of the Phase II PSMA ADC trial will be presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology's (OTC:ASCO) 2014 Genitourinary Cancers Symposium Meeting in San Francisco on January 30 to February 1, 2014.
In a December 6 press release, Robert J. Israel, M.D., Executive Vice President, Medical Affairs, stated:
PSMA ADC is the most advanced antibody drug conjugate in clinical development to treat prostate cancer. Based on the data seen with PSMA ADC in chemotherapy experienced patients, we have decided to explore whether this compound can also benefit men in the less clinically advanced chemotherapy naïve setting.
Basically, the above states the company sees the potential for the drug to be used in greater measure without as much chemotherapy dependence. Essentially, the company is seeking the eventual expanded use of the drug.
Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in northern European countries and the US, and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in men in most western countries. Needless to say, the topline data here, if positive, should be a very big price driver for the company.
PSMA ADC could end up being in direct competition to Dendreon's (DNDN) Provenge. Dendreon has fallen on hard times recently mainly because of poor management. It's hard to see Provenge competing with much of anything while the asset is still in the hands of current management. Therefore, we feel Dendreon is likely to be acquired this year by a mega pharma, which we believe will be Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
PSMA ADC could also end up being a competitor to Sanofi's (SNY) Zaltrap - Zaltrap received FDA approval in August of 2012. Zaltrap was developed in a partnership deal by Regeneron Pharma (REGN). Under the terms of its partnership with Regeneron, Sanofi gets half of the drug's profits and Regeneron has to repay half of Sanofi's development costs. Many analysts believe Zaltrap will see peak annual sales of $300M to $400M.
Conclusion
With two important near-term catalysts quickly approaching, we believe Progenics should attract many biotech catalyst traders. The first catalyst is the release of topline data from PSMA ADC at the end of this month at the ASCO conference. The second will be the FDA ADCOM meeting, which is tentatively scheduled for March of this year. Both cataysts are important for the company moving forward. PSMA ADC is the company's proprietary drug, currently without a partner. If Phase II data here is good, and we believe it will be, Progenics should be able to attract a mutually beneficial partnership with a large pharma as Regeneron has done with Sanofi with its drug Zaltrap.
It's also worth noting that Progenics did a clean and strong financing deal in June of 2013, raising nearly $35M in a warrant free deal. Because of this, the company can choose to "go-it-alone" with PSMA ADC if it chooses to. Either way, we expect these catalyst and their potential positive effects to drive the company's stock price significantly higher in the short term, perhaps even touching the $7 level. Progenics has a current market cap around $340M, which we feel is extremely low at this time in lieu of the catalysts coming up.
Time will tell the long-term story with Progenics moving forward in the next two to three years. If Relistor receives approval for both the recent sNDA filing and for its PSMA ADC, a stock price north of $30/share, or around a $2B market cap, is in line if management executes correctly.
It's also worth noting that The Bakers own a little over 4M shares of Progenics. We believe their position in this one will eventually pay off very well as most of their positions of the last two years or so have.
Our short-term price target opinion on Progenics is around $6.50, with a one year target opinion of $11-$12 a share, or roughly $700M, based on positive Phase II PSMA ADC topline data and Relistor sNDA approval.
*Relistor is a trade-marked name owned by Salix Pharmaceuticals.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational and entertainment use only, and should not be construed as professional investment advice. They are my opinions only. Trading stocks is risky - always be sure to know and understand your risk tolerance. You can incur substantial financial losses in any trade or investment. Always do your own due diligence before buying and selling any stock, and/or consult with a licensed financial adviser.
PGNX <link back for annotated chart and entry> The following article is far more optimistic than my chart reading than what I was thinking originally. JMHO but this one could be a pretty big deal as a B&H if things go well and as a swing with 2 cats one EOM and one later 3/10 Adcom
Here is the JAN 7th Article
BioPharma Catalyst And Investment Pick In Focus: Progenics
Jan. 7, 2014 8:44 AM ET | 8 comments | About: PGNX, Includes: DNDN, REGN, SCMP, SLXP
Disclosure: I am long PGNX. (More...)
Written by Scott Matusow
Catalyst events for developmental pharmas usually mean the associated stock prices see good appreciation in the period leading up to these events. As we get within a few days to a catalyst event, the stock price hits a peak, and many traders take profit from their shares while others roll these into the stock's option chain. If traders and investors feel a company will see positive results from these catalysts, they normally purchase call options. Today we focus on a company that has two significant catalyst events quickly approaching.
Progenics Pharmaceuticals (PGNX)
Progenics engages in the research and development of biotechnology product candidates in the areas of oncology and therapeutics worldwide. The company offers *Relistor (methylnaltrexone bromide), a subcutaneous injection for the treatment of opioid induced constipation (OIC) in patients with advanced illnesses such as cancer, as well as for the treatment of OIC in patients with non-cancer pain. It also offers Relistor-Oral, which has completed Phase III testing for the treatment of OIC in patients with non-cancer pain. It also provides oncology medicines, including PSMA ADC that is in Phase II testing for treatment of prostate and other cancers.
The first drug we want to talk about in more detail is Relistor, and is the only prescription medicine approved in the United States to treat this form of constipation. Relistor is now approved in the U.S. and over 50 other countries around the world. In the U.S., Relistor is marketed by its commercial partner Salix Pharma (SLXP), a leading specialty pharmaceutical company focusing on gastrointestinal diseases. It is sold outside the U.S. by sub-licenses of Salix and Ono Pharmaceutical in Japan.
The interesting thing that Progenics is doing with this drug is that it's trying to increase the patient population that the company can treat with it. Salixa and Progenics has an advisory panel meeting (ADCOM) coming up in March of this year to review the supplemental new drug application (SNDA) for Relistor expanded usage in OIC chronic pain. If approved, this additional form of Relistor would now treat patients taking opioids for non-cancer pain who suffer from OIC as a result. This population includes patients taking opioids for conditions such as back pain or joint pain.
In July of 2012, Salix and Progenics Pharmaceuticals received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) following its review of the sNDA for the Relistor injection for subcutaneous use for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation in adult patients with chronic, non-cancer pain - the CRL requested additional clinical data.
Sources tell us the reason for the CRL was because according to the FDA, Salix submitted incomplete safety data. It has been over one-and-a-half years since the CRL, and both companies after extensive meetings with the FDA, engaged the new FDA appeals process believing they have the complete safety data to ensure the FDA approves the sNDA. As a result of the appeals process and meetings with the regulatory body, the FDA assigned the ADCOM.
We believe come March, the ADCOM will recommend approval for the sNDA to the FDA, and the FDA will likely accept this recommendation and approve Relistor for this chronic pain indication.
Progenics is set to receive $50M for sNDA approval and 200M in milestone payments from Salix.
Up to $50.0 million upon U.S. marketing approval of an oral formulation of Relistor.
Up to $200.0 million of commercialization milestone payments upon achievement of specified U.S. sales targets.
Progenics Proprietary Drug Candidate if eventually approved should warrant a market cap well north of $1B.
Sucampo Pharma (SCMP) - Amitiza is the top approved treatment for OIC in patients with chronic pain. In July 2013, Amitiza was launched in the U.S. for the treatment of OIC in adults with chronic, non-cancer pain. As stated, we expect ADCOM to give a positive recommendation for Relistor's sNDA, which would boost sales significantly of the drug and should give Amitiza a run for its money.
Progenics' lead developmental drug candidate named PSMA ADC is about to get a lot of exposure. PSMA ADC is a fully human monoclonal antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) directed against prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA), a protein found at high levels on the surface of prostate cancer cells and also on the new blood vessels of a number of other types of solid tumors.
Topline data release on the chemotherapy experienced cohort of the Phase II PSMA ADC trial will be presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology's (OTC:ASCO) 2014 Genitourinary Cancers Symposium Meeting in San Francisco on January 30 to February 1, 2014.
In a December 6 press release, Robert J. Israel, M.D., Executive Vice President, Medical Affairs, stated:
PSMA ADC is the most advanced antibody drug conjugate in clinical development to treat prostate cancer. Based on the data seen with PSMA ADC in chemotherapy experienced patients, we have decided to explore whether this compound can also benefit men in the less clinically advanced chemotherapy naïve setting.
Basically, the above states the company sees the potential for the drug to be used in greater measure without as much chemotherapy dependence. Essentially, the company is seeking the eventual expanded use of the drug.
Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in northern European countries and the US, and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in men in most western countries. Needless to say, the topline data here, if positive, should be a very big price driver for the company.
PSMA ADC could end up being in direct competition to Dendreon's (DNDN) Provenge. Dendreon has fallen on hard times recently mainly because of poor management. It's hard to see Provenge competing with much of anything while the asset is still in the hands of current management. Therefore, we feel Dendreon is likely to be acquired this year by a mega pharma, which we believe will be Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
PSMA ADC could also end up being a competitor to Sanofi's (SNY) Zaltrap - Zaltrap received FDA approval in August of 2012. Zaltrap was developed in a partnership deal by Regeneron Pharma (REGN). Under the terms of its partnership with Regeneron, Sanofi gets half of the drug's profits and Regeneron has to repay half of Sanofi's development costs. Many analysts believe Zaltrap will see peak annual sales of $300M to $400M.
Conclusion
With two important near-term catalysts quickly approaching, we believe Progenics should attract many biotech catalyst traders. The first catalyst is the release of topline data from PSMA ADC at the end of this month at the ASCO conference. The second will be the FDA ADCOM meeting, which is tentatively scheduled for March of this year. Both cataysts are important for the company moving forward. PSMA ADC is the company's proprietary drug, currently without a partner. If Phase II data here is good, and we believe it will be, Progenics should be able to attract a mutually beneficial partnership with a large pharma as Regeneron has done with Sanofi with its drug Zaltrap.
It's also worth noting that Progenics did a clean and strong financing deal in June of 2013, raising nearly $35M in a warrant free deal. Because of this, the company can choose to "go-it-alone" with PSMA ADC if it chooses to. Either way, we expect these catalyst and their potential positive effects to drive the company's stock price significantly higher in the short term, perhaps even touching the $7 level. Progenics has a current market cap around $340M, which we feel is extremely low at this time in lieu of the catalysts coming up.
Time will tell the long-term story with Progenics moving forward in the next two to three years. If Relistor receives approval for both the recent sNDA filing and for its PSMA ADC, a stock price north of $30/share, or around a $2B market cap, is in line if management executes correctly.
It's also worth noting that The Bakers own a little over 4M shares of Progenics. We believe their position in this one will eventually pay off very well as most of their positions of the last two years or so have.
Our short-term price target opinion on Progenics is around $6.50, with a one year target opinion of $11-$12 a share, or roughly $700M, based on positive Phase II PSMA ADC topline data and Relistor sNDA approval.
*Relistor is a trade-marked name owned by Salix Pharmaceuticals.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational and entertainment use only, and should not be construed as professional investment advice. They are my opinions only. Trading stocks is risky - always be sure to know and understand your risk tolerance. You can incur substantial financial losses in any trade or investment. Always do your own due diligence before buying and selling any stock, and/or consult with a licensed financial adviser.
PBMD Past few sessions it is making a bit of noise, rattling the saber. I have it and am just holding on since it has a lot of potential growth available.
APPY<annotated Chart> <link back to RTN's post> March 31 Approx- Pivotal Trial - should run some as a result, jmho.
Nice pitchfork/Trend formation. The prongs of the fork act as support or resistance; so as the SP closes over a line it then becomes support, and if it closes below a prong then that prong becomes resistance. Nice Northern Trend.
APPY<annotated Chart> March 31 Approx- Pivotal Trial - should run some as a result, jmho.
Nice pitchfork/Trend formation. The prongs of the fork act as support or resistance; so as the SP closes over a line it then becomes support, and if it closes below a prong then that prong becomes resistance. Nice Northern Trend.
AEZS- Sheep that is one which imho should do very well with its Nov/fall PDUFA, the offering is done and imo I look for the next base in around 1.55-1.65 then ratchet up from there after a bit.
This one has some good northern potential. jmho
OREX<link back annotated chart> 6/10 PDUFA- this stock is up 6% in the last three sessions and is above the 50 & 200 MAs volume is hugging the 20MA which is a solid volume sign.
BOL
T2M usually I'd rather b a bit early than a bit late on PDUFAS
jmho
OREX <link back annotated chart> 6/10 PDUFA- this stock is up 6% in the last three sessions and is above the 50 & 200 MAs volume is hugging the 20MA which is a solid volume sign.
BOL
T2M usually I'd rather b a bit early than a bit late on PDUFAS
jmho
DVAX I'm in just looked at the trendline it is riding on the lower band and the trend is north so I entered. Thanks for the tip.
T2M
AEZS <diff chart with old 12/26 notes - I agree with sheep. The history of this one is to fill the gaps if you look at the chart you will see the previous gaps have been filled fairly quickly and that bodes well for the current gap. The $$$ flow is +++ so imo.
I tripled up when this one made the new offering and got a bunch at 1.15-1.16 to go with some I had at 1.47. I think now it looks very good, especially since the offer is behind now and the NOV PUDFA is out in front!
CHTP Wow! V nice recovery after the vote came out AH yesterday.
Kudos to all who didn't get stopped out and had the good fortune, and or fortitude to stay in, as well as, Sheff who had done his DD homework on it originally, since obviously his conclusion turned out to be correct.
T2M
MSTX Got back in today Ave .90 for 2 lots. Also riding CVM.
jld likely a good idea but I don't play with options or shorting (other than a short ETF or something). BOL buddy I leave the options to those who are good at them and know all about them.
BOL
T2M
star yes but they have a 1 for 50 RS happening so at the presplit of .15 they have to post split 7.50 just to break even and then trying to get another 20% say out of it may be tough. Hard to tell, I sold mine at breakeven yesterday and am waiting for the dust to settle a bit. May very well do ok but it is shooting blind imo at the moment.
jbem - your still doing very well with the half you hung on to.
Jld - Hi bud, normally in a range bound stock like this has been that occurs for sure. Having been in this one for many years I have got a bunch and traded a bunch for now I am just waiting.
jbem very kittle doubt imho perhaps a buy out?