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Re: "I tried trading Rydex funds for approximately one year."
Yes, but what were your typical **holding** periods. If you were trying to get in and out every few days I can understand your comments, but it seems to me there are parts of the year (such as during Zeev's Nassacre in May-June) where one can hold on to these for a few weeks w/o a great deal of risk.
What time frame did you try trading these funds? It seems to me that with a long enough frame (such as for Zeev's Nassacre) they would be fine. BTW I am bothered by the fact that these funds occasionally exhibit volatility that isn't in the QQQs themselves.
Great charts, augie - like the white background too.
Gottfried, if it's any help I remember this study being posted and discussed on Zeev's old thread on SI about 6 months (?) ago. But lacking a nice key word to use in a search it may be hard to find. Perhaps someone will have a link.
Re: Carpino lows...
Have you tried using the search feature? Same question answered earlier today:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=448477
Gottfried, Re: PPT, if you haven't done it already, you may find some useful articles by just doing a Google search uisng "Plunge Protection Team" -hiker
George, thx for King rpt URL. I will add it to the list of useful URLs I've gleaned from your posts! -hiker
George, where does the King report come from? I did a search but it didn't turn it up. - Thanks, hiker
Zeev, Re: "...salvation will come before the end of the week..." it sounds like you're predicting a Nassurrection! <ggg> -hiker
Zeev, have you ever looked at TXN? Would be interested in your take on it if you have. Thanks, -hiker
marginnayan, I'm not suggesting that there be separate "ignore" and "filter" functions, since programatically they are identical, just that there are reasons to filter messages other than civility-related ones. This is really about semantics, but that can influence how people use it and how people post. In the thread I was describing a LTBH type put a daytrader on ignore just to cut down on messages. When the daytrader found out he took it personally and almost stopped posting until it was explained to him that it was not personal, just a difference in style. Calling it "filter" removes these negative connotations.
Having said all that I'm sure that some folks would like to put me on "ignore" oops I mean "filter" for such long messsages unrelated to trading. My apologies to all (if you're still even reading this!) :))
marginryan, all, Re:"ignore"
While there are times when Bob's filter may be used to really ignore a person based on civility or other personal considerations, I think that's far from the only use.
On SI I regularly read one board that was a mix of LTBH investors and daytraders, but all of the same stock. Some of the LTBH crowd would check in only once in a while and didn't want to read a gazillion messages of importance only to daytrading so they would use the ignore feature to eliminate daytrader posts. Everyone got along, they just didn't want to read everything.
I think many readers may check in only once a day and don't have time to deal with the volume of posts - I think that Bob's filter is one tool they can use to manage this.
bobbigirl, thank you for being a good samaritan - I hope you'll understand the skepticism that many of us had when you first posted, but I think its just part of our nature! Best, - hiker
bernie, thanks for clearing this up. Glad to hear that problems are technical not personal in nature. -hiker
Sorry to sound distrusting, but when I read that message a voice inside of me asked just who is bobbigirl and why should she know Zeev? After all it's easy for anyone to post here.
Re: "Keep in mind that we are professional stunt men. Don't try this at home."
LOL I got a chuckle out of that one. But on the serious side I know that no matter how smooth their act appears, even stuntmen get a few bruises now and then. While I like Hussman's attitude and can't argue with the performance of HSGFX, my skeptical side wonders if/when he's going to get one. What with hedges on hedges, if you make something complicated enough, it's easier to make that slip. Perhaps a bit of unnecessary fretting, but I always think it pays to ask how things can go wrong.
Re: "This rally could go on till mid September or even longer."
Zeev, shouldn't the prospect of war temper this rally somewhat, and won't that be evident by September?
hiker
(who is not trying to start a political discussion here, just anticipate market action)
OT larry,
Re: "a little dose of GBS never hurts...much"
A good page for GBS fans:
http://www.therightside.demon.co.uk/quotes/shaw/
hiker
The latest Debka file evidently thinks the war with Iraq will start before 9/30:
http://www.debka.com/body_index.html
US Congress Wednesday Approves $28.9 b Supplemental
Emergency Spending for War on Terror Through
Financial Year Ending September 30
This Extension Covers Presumed Date for
Launch of War Against Iraq
akvetch, I agree with rich1 & patrick bateman about softie - he significantly raised the noise level on SI, at least his posts here have some limit. Nonethless he's the poster child for an "ignore" function on IHub, and the sooner the better.
"Frankly, if Maria B. thinks it is a good time to start shorting....I let others finish this sentence."
There's a school of thought that thinks her hair is a better indicator:
http://www.dimgroup.com/stockjunkies/maria.html
PS Many thanks to you, LG, aj, George Cole and many other constructive posters for all the excellent and informed opinion.
Re: Despite my stupid arrogance in not dumping my QQQ position when the loss was small, my innate caution has again served me well. Although I am taking quite a beating on QQQ, my investment there is quite small -- just 5% of assets. The other 95% in cash. Thank God!
George, congrats on your instinct for capital preservation! From your other posts I gathered that you think highly of Hussman's fund, and thought that might be among your holdings... do you have a philosophy for being in or out of that fund (assuming you do use it). I have had one eye on it for a while and have considered a small stake there. (My problem with this as with any managed mutual fund is having to somewhat blindly trust the manager.) Regards -hiker
"How many of you here are still loaded to the gills and waiting for Da Rally?"
Nah, we're all waiting for Bob Z. to implement the Ignore option so we can try it out on you!
George, thanks for posting Hussman's comments. Interesting as always.
sam, before you chimed in, the discussion was solely about data from the 30's - but this has gone right past you! And yes, you ARE wasting bandwidth. And I will waste no more - my last message to you. - hiker (who can't wait for the ignore feature to be implemented!)
Re: Hiker, that article, its charts, data ar from last year. That was written in 1001. Stale...
Sam, have the data about the 1930's crash changed over the last few years? If not then the charts in that article are still quite valid.
If you had bothered to check this series of posts (including the one that I responded to) then you would have found that it was about the size and timing of bear market rallies in the 30's.
Next time please check to see what's being discussed and save us both some time. :)
Re: Bear Market Rallies
Scroll down in the link below to see a chart of the 30's crash with the rallies annotated:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton112601.html
TXN looks strong today.
Re: "Actually he had it 16th 17th and I chose the 15th as a day earlier.."
Look at his chart, it shows 7/17 +- 1 day (7/16-18).
Why did you choose a day earlier (actually 2 days earlier than the center of his dates?
Bruce, Re: ALD, any thoughts on this article (dated 6/26/2002)? Looks like similar issues to AGM.
More Stocks to Avoid
http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2002/foth020626.htm
Excerpt:
"The two companies I'd warn investors away from today are Farmer Mac (NYSE: AGM), a government-sponsored entity that was chartered by Congress to do for the farm mortgage market what its larger cousins, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, do for the housing mortgage market, and Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD), the nation's largest business development company, which primarily invests mezzanine debt and equity into middle-market private companies. Both companies have been targeted by short sellers (another warning flag I've written about) and, in fact, the short thesis with Farmer Mac is so compelling that not only did I make it my first short ever, but it is also my largest position. "
Re: "Carpino has the high Monday.."
Hey Rich, I think you misread that one, it's 7/17 (Wed.)
Zeev, thanks for the response and clarification of your thoughts on AMAT. -Hiker
Zeev, If I recall correctly, you recently wrote that you expected AMAT & the semi-equips to breach their Sept 2001 lows. I also seem to remember (a longer time ago) that you though AMAT would top out in the $30 to $35 range, probably early 2003. Do you still think AMAT will get to the $30-35 range?
Many thanks,
Hiker
(a.k.a Hayduke on SI)
Is that a bear flag I see on the 5 min. QQQs?
Link to Carpino's site:
http://www.stocktimefactor.com/
OT, Re Hillel & Shammai
The story may be found at
http://www.jewfaq.org/sages.htm
(3rd paragraph)
I've had the same problem as LG, being redirected to the wrong thread.
Bob, I've experienced slowness the last couple of hours and would echo the request of another poster that you do your tinkering (which is much appreciated, by the way) after mkt hours.
In addition: A few times late today when I tried to open an individual msg, I got an error message... had to resort to the read "next 10" to read them.
aj, it looks like the falling wedge you spotted completed ahead of schedule, is that a bear flag I see now?