is... buying more shares
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
A) I didnt call for a settlement
I provided realistic settlement range Should there be a settlement, which I never believed there would be. That range I believe was $75-$125 mm which was a fairly realistic range for all the information available at that time.
B) How can that be off by 10 times? Was there a $750 million to $1.25 Billion settlement with GOOG that has occurred and I am not aware of?
Anyone suggesting VRNG management really believes they will get $2.50 a phone is naive. VRNG's offer sheet did not contain terms conducive to a settlement. They were on the high end of what VRNG would hope to get.
That's been my entire point, to take the numbers VRNG "offered" and dial them back considerably when looking at realistic settlement numbers.
Compare the handset rates being tossed around to actual historical rates in the handset industry:
VRNG is not going to collect Qualcomm-esque handset royalties for a handful of mobile patents that are predominantly infrastructure related and that are going to involve a 65% / 35% split with NOK.
Don't be fooled by dreamers. Let reality guide you.
Chances of ZTE accepting those terms is between zero and none.
For handsets/smartphones, VRNG doesn't own many patents and the ones they do are not anywhere close to warranting $1.25/$2.50 per device. Maybe 10% of that.
VRNG's mobile patent suit against ZTE is primarily an infrastructure dispute. That's the easiest infringement to prove and that's going to be the bulk of any settlement deal.
The ZTE opportunity is much more likely to be just a fraction of the numbers that dreamers throw around. (Much more likely to be in the $12.5 million/year range than the $125 million/year range.)
And keep in mind that any revenues coming from the NOK patent portfolio will be split with Nokia at 35%. So VRNG only keeps 65%, after the original $22 million cost to buy the patents is recovered.
Those are handset numbers and not indicative of VRNG's future targets.
VRNG is primarily going after infrastructure and other services. There's a reason they aren't going straight after phones and it has a lot to do with NOK's relationships and existing agreements with the mobile OEMs and ODMs of the world.
Actually, he scored four touchdowns in a single game.
You're right, JJS. He should have appointed a SM. It's still not too late.
Correct. Victory in Germany would be huge.
But the ZTE costs in UK, France, Australia, China, etc. contribute also.
Like I said, the ZTE case is expensive!
From today's 10Q:
Three Months Ended September 30, 2013, Compared to Three Months Ended September 30, 2012
During the three month period ended September 30, 2013, our cost of revenue was $6,725,000, which represents an increase of $3,310,000 (97%) from cost of revenue recorded for the three month period ended September 30, 2012. The increase in cost of revenue, compared to the third quarter of 2012, was mainly related to significant consulting and litigation costs, ($5,127,000, compared to $2,201,000 in the third quarter of 2012), mainly related to the commenced legal proceedings against ZTE, as well as increased amortization expenses related to patents acquired ($851,000, compared to $540,000 in the third quarter of 2012), and amortization of acquired Vringo technology, the value to which was allocated upon consummation of the Merger ($425,000, compared to $338,000 in the third quarter of 2012).
Nine Months Ended September 30, 2013, Compared to Nine Months Ended September 30, 2012
During the nine month period ended September 30, 2013, our cost of revenue was $19,557,000, which represents an increase of $13,581,000 (227%) from cost of revenue recorded for the nine month period ended September 30, 2012. The increase in cost of revenue was mainly related to increased amortization expenses related to patents acquired ($2,538,000, compared to $852,000 in 2012), as well as due to amortization of acquired Vringo technology, the value to which was allocated upon consummation of the Merger ($1,262,000, compared to $338,000 in 2012). In addition, we incurred significant consulting and litigation costs, ($14,790,000, compared to $4,451,000 in 2012), mainly related to the more recently commenced legal proceedings against ZTE, and non-cash, stock-based compensation costs ($894,000, compared to $318,000 in 2012).
Gotcha. My apologies.
Haha. Owned.
What part of "I already took profits" did you not understand?
In at $45.10 and $45.87 and out at $48+ and again at $47+.
Nobody will reply because I doubt anyone here has the access and the clout to pull of a short sale on the day of an IPO... let alone for TWTR, one of the most highly followed IPOs in th history of the market.
But I suppose there is always a chance.
Already realized profits earlier this morning. I think this will be in the $30s for weeks and weeks before major selling takes place.
Technially, TWTR can be shorted. It's just a matter of finding shares for loan, which there is almost none.
But it's possible. Some brokerage houses won't let you short on the day of an IPO. Some traders can get access on their platform and they can find shares available for loan.
But for the most part, regular individuals aren't going to be shorting TWTR today.
Jack30, will you be here in three days when TWTR is nowhere close to the teens?
Yes. Today is sort of an easy coasting day as underwriters ensure there are a very limited amount of shares to be loaned to short sellers (that's why few can short it, but most can't find shares to do so).
The real issues are upcoming. Certainly not today and probably not for at least the next week or so.
All those failed predictions calling for $20s today or teens were just a waste of time.
Here's a good article on the lockup:
http://qz.com/143290/the-risks-in-twitters-ipo-that-nobody-cares-about/
Excerpt:
The supply of Twitter shares is set to increase dramatically in the months following the company’s IPO. For the first three months of Twitter’s life as a listed company, only the shares issued as part of the IPO will trade on the public markets; the remaining 87% of its outstanding shares will remain in “lock-up”—shares doled out to high-ranking employees and longterm investors that can’t be sold until long after the IPO. The lock-up structure is meant to stabilize the share price by staggering the available supply of shares.
Of the remaining 87% in lock-up, about 10 million shares held by non-executive employees will be available for sale in February; the bulk of the rest will hit the market in May.
The little guy always gets screwed.
Although pretty easy for retail to buy in the secondary for $45 and sell at $46, $47, $48, $49.
Rule #1 is read the S1. I don't think anyone here did.
Most shares locked until May 2014. Others locked until February 2014.
There may be selling in the days ahead, but it wont be insiders. With OTC penny stocks down today, I can see why this board is so active, but misinformation isn't helpful.
It's fairly obvious virtually nobody posting on this board has read the S1 or they wouldn't be posting misinformation.
Most shares unlock in May 2014. Some shares unlock in Feb 2014. There will be some RSUs and other shares added to the mix sooner or later that will have a minimal dilutive effect, but we'll have more clarity on that when it happens.
Overall, there's a long time for this to trade before the lockup period ends.
What we are seeing is real demand to own this stock. I see any real sell-offs to the levels predicted on this board ($20s and teens) to come much later (if at all) as the lock up periods near in 2014.
LOL because it won't be $10
So much doom and gloom here. Nobody is going to to affect the price on this board, so wasted energy
TWTR ipo will be a success
he's not worthy of your time
...or the time of anyone else here
I think there is also a third type. Those of us who always have a core position but long ago got so sick and tired of the predictable price swings we decided to just always have some traders so that we can play along.
For the real long termers -- you have to enjoy the yield on cost that IDCC provides quarter after quarter.
Does $8.20 work for you?
Nasdaq shows 8.17 close, but my feed shows it closed at HOD of 8.20
...not that it matters much
$8.14 and churning higher...
wild ride!
Hard to know. The market should have already known VRNG's patents were valid and enforceable.
The market should have already known the re-exam process initiated by GOOG was not going to determine how this dispute would be resolved.
The market should have already known that VRNG's patents acquired from NOK are top quality. Nokia has been a leader in mobile/telecom R&D and its engineering and inventive pedigree are surpassed by virtually no one (QCOM, ERIC, rank up there too).
So this was a good time to take profits over $3. Proving just what I said yesterday and many times before: VRNG has provided so many opportunities for everyone to realize profits and buy lower that nobody should really complain.
Yesterday I was asked how my VRNG was doing. The answer: fantastic.
JJS, we have our explanation now. Clearly the patent news was leaked. It wasn't available online last night as we checked repeatedly.
Good development for VRNG, should boost market confidence.
Looking good. Nice start today.
OT Thanks. We had it on our list of top potential takeovers in the sector. Hoping something similar for SWIR now.
Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.
Think this is related to the move AH? Doesn't seem logical, but perhaps someone is interpreting this to be bigger than it is?
RE: OT news for MSPD
Fantastic news for our old friends at Picochip.
Also a double for me.
That looks identical to this from yesterday morning:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=93684991
A rumor about ZTE (settlement) is being spread on other MBs. I'm not buying it because the volume and price would both be higher.
Nothing on pacer. nothing on social media. no news to be found...
I see the smoke. I want to know if there is a fire.
Very interesting. thanks for the headsup.
Volume is significant for VRNG after hours.
Awesome news.
This made my week. I will now be playing TWTR (short and long term) with house money. Thank you MSPD!
_______________________________________________
Mindspeed Announces Definitive Agreement to be Acquired by MACOM for $5.05 per Share
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Nov 05, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Mindspeed Technologies MSPD +68.69% , a leading supplier of semiconductor solutions for communications infrastructure applications, today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by M/A-COM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MTSI -4.19% , a leading supplier of high performance RF, microwave, and millimeter wave products, for $5.05 per share in a cash tender offer. This represents a premium of approximately 66% to the close of $3.04 on November 4, 2013.
"After a thorough review of a wide range of alternatives by Mindspeed's Board and management team, and spearheaded by Morgan Stanley, we are thrilled to be joining forces with MACOM," said Raouf Y. Halim, Mindspeed's chief executive officer. "The company shares our commitment to innovation, and the two companies complement each other well, particularly within the high-performance analog market segment. Together we will have the scale and resources to deliver innovative technologies to our customers and drive growth, with a larger portfolio of products and a global sales force."
"This transaction is a testimony to the dedication and excellent execution of our employees over the past decade building our product platforms into high-margin, profitable, and fast-growing businesses," continued Mr. Halim. "We have created a broad portfolio of industry-leading SoC and high-performance analog solutions across multiple wireline and wireless market segments. This transaction affirms the tremendous value that our employees have created, while at the same time delivering to Mindspeed shareholders an immediate and attractive premium."
MACOM intends to commence a tender offer to purchase each outstanding common share of Mindspeed for $5.05 in cash, without interest, and MACOM will assume certain equity awards held by Mindspeed employees. The transaction value is approximately $272 million in diluted equity value.The boards of both companies have approved the transaction, which is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. Mindspeed currently expects the transaction to close by the end of calendar year 2013.
Mindspeed is also in advanced discussions with a strategic acquirer of its wireless business and expects to continue those efforts in the coming weeks. The wireless sale process will not impact the closing of the MACOM transaction described above, or the transaction consideration paid to Mindspeed shareholders.
Further details of the transaction are set out in Mindspeed's Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 5, 2013.
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC acted as financial advisor and provided a fairness opinion to the board of directors of Mindspeed. Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati PC acted as legal counsel to Mindspeed. In addition, the board of directors of Mindspeed received a fairness opinion from Needham & Company, LLC.
This is some crazy volatility today.
From $7.21 down to $6.61 back up to over $7.50.
I would say ONVO is not for the faint of heart.
Mike,
I was wondering why you went all Richie Incognito on me.
And I agree with your points. Regards.
Mike, I was only trying to debunk the myth that shareholders haven't made money here.
I'm not much of an active trader and even I have been able to sell into rallies several times now. Then buy back in the $2.7X area or lower. Wash, rinse, repeat. The key is to take advantage of the opportunities, not complain when the PPS is down and celebrate when the price pops ridiculously high on bogus news (e.g., SA articles).
Not that it matters much, as VRNG is just a small holding that constitutes part of a broad portfolio.