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Wow! Hk 975 is a screaming buy considering the lack of interest. Not even USD3000.00 in volume currently. Pick your spot.....because this may continue. Not even paying attention to the details...and just following "so called" headlines apparently. Not headlines associated with Mongolia that is.
Now I won't get pissed at a bid lower than .017 on the ADR. Bring on that ask @ .015....please.
I haven't either....and I just can not explain it. I checked the MSE TOP 20 yesterday and it just repeated the absurdity( not as absurd as HK:975 though..then again):
I also reviewed this:
http://www.centralbanknews.info/2018/06/mongolia-maintains-rate-after-first.html
"Macro-economic performance under the program remains positive, with all quantitative targets met," the IMF said, adding fiscal results in the first quarter were much better than expected as revenues rose 21 percent and net international reserves rose by $200 million.
Let's see!:
Moreover, construction of special purpose roads in routes of Tavantolgoi-Gashuunsukhait, Tavantolgoi-Zuunbayan, Tavantolgoi-Oyutolgoi-Khangi and railways in route Tavantolgoi-Gashuunsukhait, Tavantolgoi-Zuunbayan will immediately start.
And more good news coming in:
Tavan Tolgoi mine development to be intensified
http://montsame.mn/en/read/15663
The issues regarding infrastructure including construction and renovation of railway, road and energy, water supply and renewal of the mine’s feasibility study are reflected in the project in order to export large amount of coal from Tavan Tolgoi deposit in the future. Moreover, construction of special purpose roads in routes of Tavantolgoi-Gashuunsukhait, Tavantolgoi-Zuunbayan, Tavantolgoi-Oyutolgoi-Khangi and railways in route Tavantolgoi-Gashuunsukhait, Tavantolgoi-Zuunbayan will immediately start.
And there is still a back up. These numbers could be much higher.
http://montsame.mn/en/read/15656
Prior, a 120 km long queue of trucks at the Gashuun Sukhait border checkpoint was removed as a result of the Government urgent actions. However, truck queue has been formed again since March. In particular, queue of trucks in short distance transportation from Tsagaan Khad customs bonded warehouse to Gashuun Sukhait border checkpoint reached 23 km while queue of trucks in transportation route from the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit to Tsagaan Khad customs bonded warehouse extended for 39 km.
Looks like they did benefit. That is a rough 1 million more tonnes than last may(YoY). Almost 25% increase over last year...and a rough 18% of China's total. They have picked up 5 points to be down only down a rough5 points on the year
Well.well.....well...:)
Nope...we are not large buyers of Chinese steel:
ref: https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf
That is just political fodder. Do not fall for that tariff scare.....that's just bullshit media and politicians attempting to tell you a lot of nonsense.
The weakness was being down 20% on sales and up 11% in production.
let me provide an example:
Seaborne Feb coal imports:
Even if this figure does increase somewhat by the arrival of more cargoes from close-to-China suppliers such as Indonesia, it's still likely that April's imports will be below the seaborne imports of 23.2 million tonnes in March, the 20.8 million in February and the 21.4 million in January reported by Thomson Reuters.
ref: https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/coal/column-china-move-to-restrict-coal-imports-may-drive-price-divergence-russellc/63809066
Data from the General Administration of Customs released on Thursday showed coal arrivals COA-IMP-TOT dropped to 20.9 million tonnes last month from 27.8 million tonnes in January, when freezing weather boosted demand. February’s imports were the lowest for any month level since July 2017.
ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-coal/update-1-china-february-coal-imports-drop-to-7-month-low-on-warmer-weather-new-year-holiday-idUSL4N1QQ22D
okay..?????...wait.... What??? 100 thousand tonnes?
The nation’s January coal exports dropped 24.1 percent to 1.995 million tonnes, with their value down 18.45 percent at $138 million, the data showed.
ref:https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-coal/update-1-china-february-coal-imports-drop-to-7-month-low-on-warmer-weather-new-year-holiday-idUSL4N1QQ22D
Export volumes declined 33 percent to 3.25 million tonnes, while the value of coal exports dropped 25 percent to $245.4 million in the first two months of the year, according to the National Statistics Office.
ref: https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/coal/mongolias-coal-exports-drop-a-third-to-3-25-million-tonne-in-february/63295418
February had been worrisomely big, with just 1.27 million tonnes exported. The volume in March was 170% more
ref: http://en.mongolianminingjournal.com/content/65585.shtml
So how did Mongolia ship a paltry 1.27 million tonnes(which they did)when the other data show a rough 100,000 thousand tonnes. Or maybe I can't do math {20.9 million tonnes - 20.8 million tonnes = ???}
What am I missing.....eh????? Or are they shipping it elsewhere???????? Elsewhere?????? It's a mess with regards to data
Hey...it's 2.9 to 5.5......million tonnes. I have a great average....so I will get excited either way. For now at least.
HK...all the way.
!yippe ki yay'!
No...that was for the whole quarter. They may have upped production heavy in March. I have no idea. Inventory is turned to alleviate such. I get it though...given lack of turn.
You are correct here..ha!:
Nope, neither source is named Nick. I think Nick's crystal ball cracked a while back, unfortunately. "
With this..:
"Your spirited defense of OJ notwithstanding, where's the proof that he's looking out for minority shareholders? It's not there because it simply doesn't exist."
How about emerging from bankruptcy with all commons intact with only 10% dilution . Sorry..you never see that...and when you do...it's a fn' anomaly.
With this...:
"But you're still missing the broader point. It's been a year since this company re-emerged from a bankruptcy restructuring. And they still can't generate cash. "
No..the most extreme circumstance is running @ 50% capacity. That's my concern. You have a wash plant that needs to run @ 75% currently. At the least.....60%(which still sucks). That is my concern. They had 200 thousand tonnes in surplus......and that equates to a minimal of 1,100,000 tonnes needed to be sold this quarter. They need to regain market share..of which,,they currently sell 75% of washed coal...and a low baseline of a rough 8% total coal Mongolian exports. That needs to rise to a minimal of 10%....again minimal! I'll stay at that for now...but I got much more..:)
NO....just does not cut it with this:
"one was an MMC investor who has met with management multiple times and the other is a coal industry consultant based out of China"
If one of his names is "Nick"...then he was way off with that consortium deal happening last summer(at earliest). I called that out right away.
But seriously....they could not possibly know any such thing. And this really cuts it here:
"both of them advised me to sell all of my MMC shares when it was trading in the 0.20's over a year ago."
If such is the case...you would have missed out on that run last July/August...unless they told you to sell into that run........so? It's gossip horseshit.....and by no means numbers. You know them as well as you know anyone over the internet. And so it goes....
A little over the top there. This nation is only 6 years older than my son. Twenty eight years old out of a controlled Soviet Communism is the first issue to understand. With regards to management...it's the best team in all of the Tavan deposit...and everyone knows that. The majority shareholders are the ones that first funded this Company and created the most advanced coal mining operation in Mongolia. The skimming et al other similar ills you mentioned are just conjecture.
Now the reality of transportation is genuine and frustrating. The reality of a baby nation born from Soviet control is also genuine and frustrating. The high coal export to one nation is also genuine and frustrating. Where's the damn rail...eh? .... still just talk. And yes..the fundamentals are also frustrating...it's coal..eh?
My concern currently is missing data ..be it...inaccurate data. As such, my concern is with regards to missing coal import data from another nation besides Mongolia. The April and may numbers do not seem to add up...so where did that coal come from? At the least....where is the coal from April that didn't come from the seaborne imports vs Mongolia April export numbers. The numbers are not matching! Where is that rough 6 million tons from?? Same with the other Months(Jan/feb) ... where is it coming from?
That's what I want to know.
Some new data starting in March:
China march coal imports @ 26.7 million tonnes
China seaborne @ 23.2 million tonnes
Mongolia March export was @ 3.44/3.5 million tons(3.445)
These numbers are from three different and completely separate sources. Now onto April and May... which needs to be clarified...eh?...because I see discrepancies...be it data problems.
The March numbers are accurate...and very interesting to say the least.
We know that Mongolia wants 20% of that coal import to China. They want to export a rough 50 million tonnes this year. Based on last year total imports to China that run is @ 20%. They would have to run a rough 25% the rest of the year to maintain that outlook(May on).
Forgot one very important thing. Mongolia ran 12.3% of China's total coal imports for 2017. That's another baseline to consider...eh?
oh...Mongolia in May 2017 ran 3.1 million tonnes total coal exported(fyi)
MMC's baseline with total coal exports is 8%. It ran 8.2% for the first quarter....with March hitting 8.7%. These are the numbers I use. Mongolia had 55% of the first quarter coking coal imports to China...with March hitting close to 70%. Again...we know what happened in Jan/Feb. Mongolia was around 10.5% of China's total coal imports for the first quarter.
In April, Mongolia hit 16% for that Month. The question is...how much of that 6 million tonnes out there is from Mongolia?
Will that third gate equate to 20% more coal delivered(up to a third)...or not? Will the port restrictions have a desired effect? I could go on...and will so...later tonight.
If my numbers are off.....I will apologize beforehand....but I don't think they are.
It has to be flawed though. I need to find the seaborne total for May only/April only. That graph(possibly sloppy?) I posted has me not trusting it so much........so sick of this...eh? So...yet again... another Holiday.....and another night of attempting to get to the truth.
The seaborne vs the other totals are correct though.....and that is a rough 6 million tons out there.
Thank you my friend! The HK price direction was not making any sense to me. I started digging to find out why.....and the answers I obtained suggested it is irrational. When that ADR bid drops below .017.......I get pissed looking at a wash :)
By the way....I always use 8% as MMC's total coal exports with total Mongolia exports....and March pulled a 9% total. The Company had a surplus of a rough 200 thousand tons first quarter over a 10% production hike. The question is "did they disperse such and maintain output..plus"?
Should know answers here shortly....and I hope they confirm such.
Here's a couple of forecasts from this year and last. Notice how they are off the mark to our benefit:
https://home.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/au/pdf/2018/coal-price-fx-consensus-forecast-march-april-2018.pdf
https://home.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/au/pdf/2017/coal-price-fx-consensus-forecast-march-april-2017.pdf
Are you being sarcastic? I would understand such given the HK 975 direction(which is absurd!). I have been reviewing seaborne terminals out of Australia. The Gladstone gig is being pushed as a big China increase in May(via headlines), but they are down a rough 5 million tons on the year. I still can not get clean data though. It is so frustrating to say the least. Especially on Russian seaborne data.
With that said..show me the numbers!...eh?
Coal imports for China totaled 120.73 million tons from Jan-May. Seaborne imports totaled 104.5 million tons for same period. Mongolia exported 10.33 million tons from Jan-April.
That's a rough 6.0 million tons left over.
Notice the change coming with seaborne coal. It apparently dropped a rough 1.5/2 million tons in May(YoY). China imports grew less than 1% in May YoY(600 thousand tons more in May...YoY), being flat, it appears that Mongolia benefited.
When there is no liquidity........plenty..:)
Need to be over 20 million at the least......almost half way there. Would love to see it hit over 35 million to be clean. Still pathetic dollar volume as such ......but what can you do...eh?
Capitulation at hand!....would love to see more volume though.
....and when I speak of North Korea being an anomaly.........that's a great thing. Export that Anthracite as much as you can!..........because you will need sooooo' much steel if things go well with this current discussion between Nations. If such, you better expect a "major" steel boom played on said nation.
China just had a output record in steel..........so????? Why are individuals not getting it?
Markets are always irrational. They are irrational to the upside....as well as.....the downside. I have rarely seen anything correctly priced. That's for another discussion though. To your "short run" point..... the answer to such irrationality is to be in front of it :)
We are at the foot steps of a major anomaly. What lies between such is Inner Mongolia.
Data starting to trickle in:
*May coal imports to China are flat(as expected)...up a rough one point YoY
*Iron ore is up a rough 14 points MoM
*Steel production/output in China hit a record 1.96 million tonnes in the first 20 days of May
That is actually very good news...but yet once again...no one seeing it in HK.
?...Wrong family.....and whoever is suggesting that such is his direct family is just wrong. He co-owned a bar or two in his earlier days and moved up from there. Everything I have read about him is fairly positive.....but to suggest he has heavy family bank is completely false.........wrong family.....wrong pitch.
?Think I'm kiddn'.:
"Mr McGowan, who has been welcomed for high-level talks in Beijing for the past three days, told The Weekend Australian from Beijing that he was concerned by the language of some federal ministers and “appalled” by then deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce’s suggestion in January that China posed a greater threat to Australia than Islamic State."
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/mcgowan-warns-turnbull-over-chinese-relations/news-story/b161b52c69342c88ae598a887fb7d607
Nothing major/extreme will come from it....but compound that with the Aussie' rail..and "rain"....!!. Bring it.
Coking coal prices on the rise........look towards Australia. As I mentioned previously...it's now having an impact.
In queue:
“Over the years, China, Australia and Indonesia will slowly lose the global market share of coking coal production to Russia, India and Mongolia,” BMI adds.
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/china-remains-dominant-coal-consumer-producer-2018-06-01
On the same note........there is no consortium currently. The pitch at play is the 30% IPO. And ...yes...the same gig was killed over five years ago. This one will go in my opinion. Then again...
Sustainable? You know that we are talking about commodities...eh? More precisely......coal. But let me get to the point. The current Australian and Chinese climate is very hostile(in some ways..more so than the current U.S./China situation)..and currently compounded by this:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/coal-exports-dispute-could-inflict-a-2-billion-hit-on-queensland-s-state-budget-20180529-p4zi5g.html
extracted:"In response Aurizon, which has a monopoly on the state's coal rail network, has now said it would have to change its maintenance practices, leading to a reduction of up to 20 million tonnes in Queensland coal exports a year - or about 10 per cent of total exports."
North Korea will soon start exporting to china(once again). If Erdenes Tavan actually floats that 30% and builds what it plans to build.... then they have that seaborne coal trade by the balls(if they so choose to).
I am going to stop right there for now(and so much to say)......but remember when I say this....clean coal is good coal....and washed coal is even better. Will be back a little later.
Can you confirm where that data source came from? Please.
! Combine that with this post on May 18th:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140889607
If said image data is accurate(???)..then watch what happens within three weeks(or when May numbers are released).
And no one is paying attention in Hong Kong currently....eh?...they will be!
! This is very important:
4.54 mnt tons imported in April
-down 46.34% YOY
-down 35.22% Jan-Apr YOY
16.5 mnt total imported Jan-Apr 2018
For review:
"Since the weekend of April 15, thermal and coking coal imports at ports in Eastern China, such as Fangcheng and Zhoushan, are now restricted, while in the Southern Coast, port authorities in the Fujian Province (where the port of Xiamen is located) are telling steel mills that, in their case, this would extend to a full-scale unloading ban."
ref: https://www.magnuscmd.com/chinas-coal-restrictions-why-now/
..and....:
"Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ Erdenes Mongol LLC reports that Chinese side has added entrance lanes starting from April 16, enabling coal trucks to cross the Gants mod border checkpoint through three gates."
Now go look at Mongolia's "total" coal exports Jan-April of this year. More specifically...look at Aprils coking coal export. Do you see it?.........:)
I understood it completely. The only reason you are off 25 points on the downside is due to the complete nil liquidity. Maybe the "mob" was on over weighted with regards to the consortium playing out.
The good news is that it looks as though Tavan will float 30% and attempt to play accordingly.
Just wrong man.......not cool!