All post are my opinion. Do your own dd.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
It appears that 88 may have relinquished a portion of their Icewine leases, read 88 flag at Icewine.
https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/C0A13D5C9DC047B78EF92ECA1BF18FB1/2020-12_NorthSlope_ActivityMap_Web?
GLTA
$PTHRF
Nice work, money in the bank.
Rock Steady
GLTA
$BOPO
I think 88 probably should have spent more of their resources there earlier on. If they moved there now, they would be riding on PTHRF's thunder, (good for 88) but I think it would be a drag for PTHRF. (Another fare thee well actively at the table, needing a booster chair.)
In a few weeks the A-USBLM should have completed their review of the NPR-A, approximately Jan 6, 2022. The news from that will determine 88's path forward.
GLTA
$PTHRF
Capital Structure Updated
The Company has 744,427,203 ordinary fuly paid shares in issue. There are no other classes of shares in issue.
The number of ordinary shares not in public hands amount to 6,666,691 equivalent to 0.9% of the issued allotted and fully paid ordinary shares.
This is correct as of 13 December 2021
http://pantheonresources.com/investors/capital-structure
GLTA
$PTHRF
Any whispers of commercialization will move this ticker considerably north. I'll assume we hear something between February and July.
I will be using this time to average up. Happy hunting all.
GLTA
Merry Christmas***
$PTHRF
If it's true what they say about history repeating or at least rhyming I would think we're due an investors presentation between now and the end of January.
http://pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations
GLTA
$PTHRF
I have not seen this one before in this format, so I thought I'd post it.
https://app.box.com/s/g3x0l62dxtvhh3c7su2dlnkd9qcvtj9u
GLTA
$PTHRF
HAPPY HOLIDAYS***
Merry Christmas to all and wishing everyone a happy and prosperous New Year.
A simple reminder of what shareholders have here.
http://pantheonresources.com/about-pantheon/projects/talitha#
http://pantheonresources.com/about-pantheon/projects/greater-alkaid
GLTA
$PTHRF MERRY CHRISTMAS***
Pantheon Resources is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company incorporated in the UK with a 100% working interest in a portfolio of high impact oil projects focused on the Alaskan North Slope spanning over 150,000 acres. In Alaska, Pantheon has discovered resources in conventional reservoirs with multi-billion-barrels of resource potential. These discoveries are in multiple accumulations in a unique geographic location adjoining the export and transport infrastructure significantly enhancing commercial potential with minimal impact on the environment. Pantheon’s primary assets include two major oil appraisal and development projects named Greater Alkaid and Talitha which have both been drilled and proven oil bearing. There is also a host of other high impact exploration opportunities currently being matured. Talitha was drilled in early 2021 and discovered oil in multiple formations. These Alaskan North Slope assets, where Pantheon holds a 100% working interest offer multi-billion barrels of oil potential. All projects are beneficially located immediately underneath and adjacent to the major TAPS pipeline (Trans Alaska Pipeline System) and the Dalton Highway, the major transportation artery for the Alaskan North Slope (ANS) oil and gas activities with almost immediate evacuation possibilities for any discovered oil. This provides a major competitive advantage, both financial and operational, over all newly discovered oil fields on the North Slope which is important for a small company like Pantheon.
http://pantheonresources.com/
GLTA
$PTHRF
Pantheon Resources gets green light for Alaska development
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/969584/pantheon-resources-gets-green-light-for-alaska-development-969584.html
GLTA
$PTHRF
New interview Jay Cheatham: Pantheon Resources sets out plans for Theta west and Taltiha projects on Alaska’s North Slope
Pantheon Resources raises US$96mln for Alaska well programme
Chief executive Jay Cheatham hailed a fantastic result as high demand resulted in a significant overfunding above the explorer's initial target.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/968559/pantheon-resources-raises-us-96mln-for-alaska-well-programme-968559.html
GLTA
$PTHRF
Excellent post sch100 (Twitter).
I cherry picked this from Petroleum News though not directly related and a few weeks old. (Fossil fuels premier newspaper)
https://www.petroleumnews.com/pdfarch/24208964.pdf
HYDROGEN ROADMAP Alberta releases hydrogen roadmap
to create 5,600 jobs, attract C$30B
Driving the province’s hopes is an estimate that hydrogen could account for 24% of global energy demand by
2050.
GLTA
$BOPO
Peps are accumulating shares!!!
GLTA
$PTHRF
Read this.
https://valuesits.substack.com/p/a-milestone-and-pantheon-resources
GLTA
$PTHRF
You got this. Check these two links out, be sure to scroll to bottom of page.
https://hyfi-corp.com/index.php/nft-marketplace/
This link is the mother ship, notice the HYFI tab @ top of page.
https://wppenergy.com/
GLTA
$BOPO
This is from September, but it is a fair appraisal of $PTHRF.
https://valuesits.substack.com/p/the-real-asset-ownership-complex
A Real Asset Quick Idea - Pantheon Resources Plc
My quick idea on how to play this oil theme is Pantheon Resources Plc (PANR, PTHRF).
Company Overview
PANR is a ~GBP£420m / $575m market cap independent O&G exploration and production company listed on the London AIM market. While incorporated in the UK, its business is focused on an enormous oil resource on the Alaskan North Slope spanning approximately 160,000 acres, where it has a 100% working interest over a world-class oil resource, with an estimated ~16 -21 BILLION barrels of oil in place (OIP), making it one of the largest oil finds since the 1960s.
In January 2019, PANR acquired the assets of Great Bear Petroleum ("GBP") for ~$50m. GBP was an O&G explorer focused on the Alaskan North Slope (ANS), where it had been operating for almost a decade. As part of this transaction, hedge fund Farallon Capital Management acquired ~20% of PANR as a part of a debt settlement owed to it by GBP when PANR acquired GBP. Farallon remain the largest shareholder in PANR, owning ~19% of the company, and continue to periodically sell off shares as a way of recovering the legacy debt owed to it.
PANR’s key assets comprise 3 projects with an estimated 16 billion barrels OIP, of which ~1.9 billion barrels are currently estimated as recoverable:
Greater Alkaid - 1.2 billion barrels of OIP, of which 76.5 million barrels of oil (MMBO) have been independently verified as recoverable
Talitha Shelf Margin Deltaic (SMD), Zone B - 2.7 billion barrels OIP, of which ~404 MMBO is estimated as recoverable by management (note this excludes 2 other zones within the Talitha SMD, zones A and C)
Theta West - total of 12.1 billion barrels OIP, of which 1.4 billion BO are estimated as recoverable
Source: Company filings and management commentary.
It should be noted that management, in addition to disclosing vast amounts of detail and technical data to support their estimates of OIP and recoverable barrels, tend to be conservative. The entire Talitha SMD project (including zones A,B and C) was previously estimated to contain 1.8 billion barrels OIP, of which ~483 MMBO was estimated as recoverable. In July management announced a resource upgrade for Zone B, estimating that it alone contained the 2.7 billion barrels OIP with ~400 MMBO recoverable, representing a ~50% increase in recoverable oil resource for SMD Zone B.
Furthermore, the currently estimated 1.9 billion barrels of recoverable oil across these 3 projects equates to a recovery rate of ~12% which again appears conservative relative to recovery rates of 20%+ at other comparable oil fields on the ANS.
In addition to the above 3 projects, PANR also has other holdings with an estimated ~4.9 billion barrels OIP, of which potential ~1 billion barrels are currently estimated as recoverable (see SOTP analysis below which sets out each project).
So all told, PANR is sitting on up to 21 billion barrels of oil, of which conservatively ~2.9 billion BO (~14%) is currently estimated as recoverable.
Pantheon’s near-term focus is to prove the commercial potential of the Greater Alkaid and Talitha projects. As management stated on the recent August 2021 webinar and technical update, the strategy is clear:
We plan to prove up and sell this asset. For many on our team this is our last endeavour. And we plan to exit with a big win.
In terms of immediate next steps, PANR needs to obtain funding or achieve a farm-out of assets in Q4 2021 to ensure sufficient resources for working capital and to fund the next stage of its drilling and testing programme. The near-term objective is to test all zones of the Talitha discovery well, and to drill at least one other well at either Alkaid or Theta West. With regard to funding requirements, management are in ongoing discussions with various development partners to progress this.
Thesis & Valuation
PANR sits on a world-class oil discovery of 16 billion+ barrels of oil, and appears significantly undervalued based on precedent comparable transaction valuations for similar assets in the Alaskan North Slope area.
PANR’s current market cap of £420m / ~$575m implies a valuation of just $0.20 per barrel of oil (BO), based on the total estimated recoverable resource of ~2.9 billion BO. To put this in perspective, the most recent comparable transaction for PANR’s assets was Oil Search’s acquisition of interests in the Pikka and Horsehoe oil developments in 2017, when it paid $3.10/barrel of recoverable oil, or 15.5x the value of PANR’s assets as implied by the current market cap.
The value gap between the Oil Search assets and PANR’s is particularly notable given the following factors:
PANR’s Alkaid and Talitha projects are in a superior location for development compared to Pikka /Horseshoe, being located adjacent to the Dalton Highway and Trans-Alaskan Pipeline System (TAPS). Pikka/Horseshoe are located much further away from critical infrastructure, meaning that the cost to develop PANR’s assets should be relatively lower (and therefore have a NPV higher also).
Oil Search acquired partial interests (25.5% interest in Pikka and 37.5% in Horseshoe) as opposed to PANR’s 100% working interest in its assets
The Pikka/Horseshoe interests acquired by Oil Search were much smaller, at ~129 MMBO recoverable vs. PANR’s 1.9 billion barrels at its 3 key assets alone
At the time of Oil Search’s deal, WTI oil was trading at $55/barrel vs. today’s price of $74/barrel and forecasted to rise above $80, enhancing the NPV of PANR’s assets.
Furthermore, management’s latest development analysis for the Alkaid and Talitha SMD Zone B assets indicates NPVs per barrel significantly higher than the $3.10 Pikka/Horseshoe comp - assuming $70/barrel oil price and a 10% discount rate, management estimate an NPV per barrel of $10.64 (or 3.4x Pikka/Horsehoe) for Alkaid and NPV/barrel of $8.49 for Talitha SMD-B (2.7x Pikka/Horseshoe) :
Source: Pantheon Resources Plc Technical Presentation, August 2021
Pulling all this together, my indicative SOTP analysis values PANR at a risk-adjusted NAV of $5.20/share or £3.80/share, or ~6x the current share price of £0.60, as follows:
Source: Value Situations analysis; management information.
Commentary & Key Assumptions:
OIP and recoverable resources as per management disclosures
$ per BO - for Greater Alkaid and Talitha SMD Zone B, given the relatively superior profile of these assets vs. the Pikka/Horsehoe assets, I assume these merit a premium value per barrel. For these 2 projects I assume the midpoint of the $3.10/barrel comp and their respective NPVs per barrel at a $70 oil price as outlined above; for the other projects I assume the $3.10/barrel in line with Pikka/Horseshoe, which may be conservative.
Cash - PANR had reported cash of ~$30m in the most recent financial statements (Dec-20); however given passage of time and ongoing WC requirements, I assume this cash is not available to shareholders and is needed to fund opex pre-farm out, and so ascribe a nil value in the above SOTP.
Risked EV & NAV arrived at by assigning probability of success rates to each of PANR’s assets - in the August technical update, technical director Bob Rosenthal stated the following with regard to risk and probability of success:
We’ve eliminated the exploration risk, we’ve found hyrdocarbons, and we’re well beyond the exploration stage….. we are at 60% - 70% confidence of success.
I assume the 60% low end of management’s probability range in arriving at a risk weighted value for the Alkaid and Talitha SMD B Zone assets, being the most progressed projects, and assign lower probabilities of 30% for the remaining Talitha sections and the Theta West project. Given that oil has been confirmed at each of these locations, and the extent of work done to date and management’s conservatism I believe 30% is a reasonable assessment for these. Leonis is an exploration play and so I assign a 10% probability to reflect greater uncertainty around this project.
This SOTP analysis implies a risked NAV of $3.8bn or $5.20/share, equating to ~£3.80/share at current USD/GBP FX rate, which implies PANR is currently trading at just 0.16x risk-adjusted NAV, and offers 533% upside / 6.3x MOIC at the current share price.
Alternatively, if I value the Alkaid and Talitha SMD Zone B assets at $3.10 in line with the Pikka/Horseshoe asset the implied risk-adjusted NAV/share is still a multiple of the current share price, at £2.98, or ~4x the current share price.
Looking at the valuation another way, if we just consider the Alkaid and Talitha SMD Zone B assets ONLY, and value their estimated recoverable oil resources at the $3.10/barrel and a 60% probability of success, this implies a risk-adjusted NAV of $1.20/£0.87 per share, or +45% above the current share price, and implies one would still get the remaining ~2.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil resource for free. On that basis it seems like PANR offers an extremely wide margin of safety given this real asset backing, while offering multibagger return potential.
Catalyst
The catalyst to realise value here is a farm-out or sale of the company to a major development partner, and this is actively being pursued by management against the backdrop of increasingly positive news around the scale of PANR’s oil resources.
As CEO Jay Cheatham stated during the August webinar update, management’s intention is to further prove their resource estimates and monitise the company’s assets to realise a return for shareholders, similar to the historic Oil Search transaction, and management are actively looking to progress this.
Discussions are ongoing with a number of potential development partners regarding a farm-out of part or all the company’s projects. The strategically advantaged location of PANR’s assets close to key infrastructure, the recent resource upgrade for the Talitha project as well as the enormous potential for Theta West should generate strong interest from development partners. Furthermore, the recent oil price strength and the more robust outlook for oil demand is likely to heighten interest further for a full acquisition.
In order to trigger the ultimate catalyst of a full sale/exit, PANR needs to obtain new funding or achieve an initial farm-out in Q4 2021 in order to further prove their resources at Talitha and/or the Alkaid and Theta West projects this winter.
Based on the information provided to date by management, I would expect a successful winter drilling and testing campaign to result in a full farm-out or buy-out of PANR.
Why Does This Opportunity Exist ?
From initial review, I believe the PANR opportunity exists for the following reasons:
Speculative Risk Perception - while PANR has potentially enormous recoverable oil reserves, further drilling and testing is required to prove resources sufficiently to attract a bid similar to the Oil Search deal.
Funding / Farm-Out Risk - PANR is not income generating and requires further funding to progress with the winter testing programme; as such it needs to progess with a farm-out or other funding discussions to progress its strategy. There is also the potential for further dilution in obtaining new funding.
Non-fundamental selling by Farallon - Farallon’s shareholding in PANR is a legacy of it previously being a lender to Great Bear Petroleum (acquired by PANR in 2019). Farallon converted its former loan to GBP into equity in PANR and has been periodically selling down its shares as a way of recouping the historic GBP debt. As such, this is a weight on PANR’s share price.
Negative sentiment towards O&G due to fossil fuel & ESG concerns and oil price decline trend since 2008 have reduced investment appetite among oil majors and development partners.
PANR is a small-cap O&G stock listed on the AIM, with only 2 brokers covering it and as such is overlooked by equity investors.
In summary, investors require further visibility on the outcome of points #1 and #2 above in particular before being convinced that a buy-out of PANR at $3.10/barrel (or more) is likely.
While there remain some uncertainties, my initial sense is that given the extent and quality of work done by management to date, and the sheer scale of PANR’s oil discovery in a strategically advantaged location on the ANS (a proven, oil-rich location), the probability of a successful outcome here is high, even after factoring in delays and/or dilution from a farm-out or funding round.
For example, PANR previously raised $30m in November 2020 to drill the Talitha discovery well, which diluted shareholders by ~12% at the time. If PANR sought to raise twice that amount (which it does not currently require) at the current share price, this would indicatively increase the share count by ~73m shares and reduce the SOTP risked NAV value above from £3.80 to £3.46 (or still 5.7x the current share price), a reduction of ~11% to my risk-adjusted NAV.
In terms of a downside (no funding/farm-out or a failed drilling campaign), it should be emphasised that PANR is debt-free and currently valued at $0.20/barrel based on the current market cap - it is effectively priced like an option with a binary outcome including a zero value possibility, which seems implausible after the latest update has clearly shown that PANR is now beyond the option-like exploration stage and has confirmed finding a world-class oil resource.
I would argue the uncertainty in this situation is NOT that PANR may recover no oil, but rather it is around quantum - i.e. how many million or billion barrels of oil will be recovered in time. This uncertainty is not the same thing as risk in this situation.
Conclusion
To conclude, on a preliminary analysis PANR is a highly asymmetric real asset play, but priced like an option that could expire worthless despite it being past the exploration phase. While the ultimate value of PANR’s assets currently remains uncertain, given the facts to date it seems reasonable to conclude that they are worth much, much more than $0.20/barrel today.
For those interested, I would recommend watching the April and August 2021 webinar updates where management set out their key projects and the work done to date in extraordinary detail, which I believe provides comfort to the tangibility and recoverability of PANR’s oil resources.
GLTA
$PTHRF
Know what you own and buy the dips.
$PTHRF $PANR
— glomerulus (@ijduwa) December 11, 2021
Loaded more this week. when oil production starts in the next few months, this will be rip. I don’t know how much but it will be minimum double. When drilling completes and reports come out, it will double again, minimum.
Know what you own and buy the dips. pic.twitter.com/AX97qcglcI
Watch this boogie. (Read his lips.) lol
😆😆😆 pic.twitter.com/8CrhW3rAlb
— 𝘽𝙀𝙉 𝙆𝙄𝙇𝙋𝘼𝙏𝙍𝙄𝘾𝙆 ❁ (@BensLifeTweets) December 10, 2021
New Blytheweigh Business News Interview. (World Class!)
Pantheon Resources plc (Lot of good stuff here.)
Final Results for the Year Ended 30 June 2021
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/w9k64dr
GLTA
$PTHRF
Nice score on the dip. Get ready for the rip.
GLTA
$BOPO
Korea H2 Alliance attracts $1 billion investment for hydrogen business.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2021/12/419_320154.html
GLTA
$BOPO
Petroleum News - Week of December 12, 2021
https://www.petroleumnews.com/pdfarch/761829949.pdf
GLTA
$PTHRF
$PANR $PTHRF Pantheon Resources PLC - The Most Premier Video Presentation of a GIANT Oil & Gas Discovery that you may ever see complete with 3D Computer Geology. Possibly the 2nd largest oil discovery on American soil since Prudhoe Bay.
$PANR $PTHRF Pantheon Resources PLC - The Most Premier Video Presentation of a GIANT Oil & Gas Discovery that you may ever see complete with 3D Computer Geology. Possibly the 2nd largest oil discovery on American soil since Prudhoe Bay.https://t.co/twsdn9lCc1#PANR_ALASKA #oil📈
— UFO Pilot (@GeodesRock49) December 9, 2021
How do O&G companies drill horizontal wells? Use of Mud Motors, bit face angle control, bent subs, sliding, rotating, + physics of lever and fulcrum, etc. Steel does bend!!!
3.5 Minute Video -
In terms of scale and proximity to infrastructure, 3D seismic, well penetrations and production testing, Pantheon Resources (#AIM: $PANR OTC: $PTHRF) has the best appraisal-stage Alaskan assets on the farm-out market by a wide margin. This is critical where capital is scarce.
https://twitter.com/AlaskaPanr/status/1469093049036943365
GLTA
$PTHRF
I recall you asking about the yield sign on the OTCM, it's pink current now.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/PTHRF/overview
GLTA
$PTHRF
Just sexy;
WHI View: This is a strong show of support by the equity capital markets in recognition of the compelling nature and scale of Pantheon’s resource base. The oversubscribed placing is, in our opinion, a very positive development that sets the scene for an exciting high-impact drilling program.
GLTA
$PTHRF
They talked about this in their last webinar. It takes money to make money.
GLTA
$PTHRF
It would be nice to see all the heavy hitters being aggressive on the north slope but with proximity to infrastructure, state lands (less regulations) we just need to appraise and flow test. Value will bring the wolves out.
GLTA
$PTHRF
When $PTHRF drilled into Talitha, it took a monumental risk for a small oil company.
https://twitter.com/AlaskaPanr/status/1468005088195194883
GLTA
$PTHRF
Happy Holidays, I've come across contrasting views & I thought I'd post them. Read both links fully. Anyway, something to chew on. Night & light. LOL
https://rehoboam.substack.com/p/huge-question-marks-on-huge-oil-discovery
http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=45937411&from=20003
GLTA
$PTHRF BLACK GOLD (OIL!)
Deck the halls with...maybe this should be stickied as well. Fa la la la la. LOL
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457534-pantheon-resources-a-pure-play-conventional-oil-developer-in-alaska-north-slope
GLTA
$PTHRF Pantheon Resources: A Pure-Play Conventional Oil Developer In Alaska North Slope