Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
This is our new lead counsel:
https://www.fr.com/jonathan-e-singer/
I asked around. I was told he is very good and has done a lot of appeals.
June 19th 2020 $5 puts---what do you all make of the volume?
Very interesting. July 1st is the beginning of Q3. The clock is definitely ticking especially if Amarin is going for an expedited appeal this summer. May is here in 2 weeks.
Did BP have its hand in selecting the new lead counsel?
So many unanswered questions....
Larrybirdlegend in the scenario you outlined how do you see the stock price of AMRN reacting with terms of a CVR?
Biobillionair--what is your price target?
Great points Larrybirdlegend. But unless JT has something up his sleeve that is perhaps making him confident of getting this expedited appeal and perhaps winning it, it does not appear as if the BOD or major shareholders (Baker Brothers) are forcing JT to settle this thing or sell the company at this stage.
I understand litigation is risky but from his pubic statements it appears they are going forward with the appeal.
Would love to know the discussions that are going on internally especially with the BOD and Baker Brothers.
Trust me. I fully understand how appeals work and the litigation process. This was an error that was committed by Judge Du. It is clear as day. And if you are appealing a case, it is better to have errors than no errors. This is why there are appellate courts.
The other thing Amarin has going for it is the venue will be different and there will be three judges.
The Patent Examiner considered Kurabayashi and found that Amarin presented sufficient evidence showing unexpected benefit yet Judge Du still felt she knew more than the Patent Examiner notwithstanding the burden being clear and convincing. You can't make this stuff up.
This is not only an important case for Amarin but also for the pharma industry. Don't be shocked if others come to Amarin's defense when this appeal is heard.
Markman Advisors--Great comment from someone named Andrew Fleischman on the new Markman Advisors note. See below. Direct Quote:
"The key here IMO is the way Judge Du worded her court order, which demonstrates a clear error that does not require expert testimony to refute (it is a fact clearly delineated in the Kurbayashi paper). She initially points to the statistically significant difference in ApoB from baseline in the EPA group early on in the court order. But then in forming the basis of her opinion, she goes on to state “in light of the statistically-significant differential effects reported between the EPA and control groups, a POSS would have attributed the reduction in ApoB to EPA”.
This proves that Judge Du misunderstood what that there was no differential between groups, only compared to baseline. And that she used this as a key point in making the decision of obviousness. This iOS not an instance in which she chose to believe Heinecke over Amarin experts since Heinecke agreed there was no differential effect. This was simply a mistake. There is no question from a legal standpoint that clear errors like this are fair game for argument on appeal and it’s even possible a judge Du doesn’t appreciate the error and upon correction it would change her own opinion."
Agree. Not sure if it is the increased risk of death from covid-19 for those suffering from cardiovascular disease or diabetes or the fact that cardiovascular disease remains the #1 killer in America but something has JT confident that oral arguments will be held this summer. And the appellate court will be interested in seeing to it that this case is heard perhaps given the lives at stake.
That is pretty remarkable. I don't think he makes that statement without a high degree of confidence this appeal will be held this year.
It is huge as a decision could be rendered before Q3 is over.
The expedited appeal is extremely interesting. Thero seems fairly confident that oral arguments will happen this summer. Meaning that the 12 month process everyone was previously considering looks like it will be much shorter. I wonder what is giving him this confidence that the appeal will be heard much sooner.....
from the transcript:
Our aim is to expedite the appeal proceedings towards a hearing and judgment as soon as possible. We are aiming for the matter to be heard in oral argument in the summer after briefings are completed with a judgment as soon as possible thereafter. We can and are working to expedite, but we do not control the court schedule.
However, we hope to have more details on timing of the briefing schedule over the next week or two. When substantive briefs are filed with the Federal Circuit for this appeal, they will become publicly available through PACER, the Internet-based docket publication platform.
Look at the volume over the last several days. Something other than just an appeal is going on. Something more behind the scenes.....
That volume is not about a 12 month appeal process....
@LBL by when do you think this sale/BO happens? end of Q2? end of Q3? end of year?
And even with the appeal you have to pray that you have the right judges....SMH
Just unreal we are in this situation considering we surmounted the AdCOM with a 16 to 0 vote. Now here we are.
With what looks like another 12 months and then praying that we have favorable judges to hear the oral arguments for the appeal.
We all know now it comes down to the judge / judges. Don't be fooled.
You can't make this stuff up.
So that's it. File an appeal. That's his whole strategy eh? Great.
Another 12 months of waiting. SMH Share price will linger at these levels till then I guess.
He had an investor call post the delay of the priority review / adcom.
Crickets this time aside from the press release that was put out.
That's leadership.
John Thero--when is he going to address the shareholders?
We have yet to hear from him. I've never invested in a company where a material event occurred with respect to the Company, and the CEO is pin drop silent. SMH
The clock is ticking.
Are we going to have to wait until the next quarterly call?
Got it. Thanks for the reply.
@Biobillionair--are you saying there are other Marine patents that will prevent generics from ever launching?
Our share price is down 70%.....how is Wall Street missing this?
Management - when are we going to hear from them?
Next week? In a month?
Is the press release the only statement they are putting out?
SMH
Get this case as far away from Judge Du as possible. We know how this story ends.
She has done enough damage. Cannot trust her. She thinks she knows more than the Patent Examiner and the scientists.
JL I agree it is a travesty but judges are human and unfortunately for us shareholders....judges are prone to error.
This is exactly why the CEO and senior management should not have taken this case to trial. You just don't do it especially when you are a one product company. Look at the drop in market value from day before the Judge's ruling to now. For sure, it would have been cheaper and wiser to settle.
This was bet the company litigation and that bet proved beyond detrimental. I don't know what our Covington lawyers conveyed to Thero but the conservative in Thero should have forked over money to settle.
Let's hope senior management has a game plan in place for a scenario such as this where you lose the trial. The clock is ticking....
Spot on Larrybirdlegend. Option #3 is the only one that makes sense at this point. We all thought the first trial was very winnable and look how that turned out. To sit here and put our faith in the appellate process...good luck with that. It is long and drawn out and takes time and then you are praying for at least two out of the three judges to see things in your favor. No bueno.
Let's hope the Board of Directors has JT focused on option #3.
Trials are always risky. I read the closing briefs for Amarin and Defendant's several times and was pretty sure we would win. Yet, I still bought puts protecting my investment because I know how risky trials are. Who rolls the dice on a trial when the future of the company is at stake.....SMH
You don't put the outcome of the company on such a binary event like that trial in Reno. You just don't do it. Way too risky as evidenced by the 70% drop in our share price this week.
Oh well what's done is done. Lesson learned for all. Let's hope JT is focused and has another plan aside from just trying to appeal.
Exactly. It's business as usual until it is not. There has to be something else going on behind the scenes.
They must not be telling the reps the real deal. Surely JT has something else up his sleeve. Let's all hope so.
Hamoa--any thoughts? You still on here? Would be great to get your perspective.
Amarin was the Seattle Seahawks on the 1 yeard line. We passed the ball instead of running it in versus the Patriots. SMH
Dumbfounded
Baker Brothers--hope they are steering the ship here and on the phone with management this morning. Management team clearly needs help to make the right decision for shareholders at this time!
That's a great point. The generics were resolute. I guess now we know why. What did the generics know that we didn't know about Judge Du?
Grave mistake by the CEO. Litigation is always risky as evidenced by today's decision. Yes, we had the facts on our side, but the result does not show it. Why risk the franchise on one outcome in front of one Judge?? SMH
Just unreal it has come to this.
@Larrybirdlegend what do you really think a buyout would fetch now?
Could we even get $15 or $20 per share?
SMH what a difference a week makes. Just unreal. High stakes litigation and we lost. WTF
why roll the dice with litigation...just dumbfounded. There is always this risk. Insanity.
Judge Du's law clerks probably wrote the first draft and Judge Du is likely probably reviewing it to make sure it is not overturned on appeal. Judge Du said by the end of March. Not there yet.
Yes, thanks so much. This was it.
Appreciate it.
Thanks for posting. I thought there was one posted around February 27th.
Michael Yee podcast - does anyone still have this link where he discussed the trial and expectations about two weeks ago it was posted on the message board. I can't seem to find it. Do you mind re-posting.
Thanks
Share price drop? Anyone know what that was....ouch!
Lawyers by nature tend to be risk averse so consider this when putting into context why he never assigns a higher probability than 70% to any case.
There is always a risk with any trial. Any good trial lawyer will tell you this if he or she is honest.
That being said, I'm comforted by the high burden the generics have here in terms of the clear and convincing standard the generics must meet to invalidate the patents. That is a very high bar. Is Judge Du, who is a young judge, really going to rule to invalidate the patent, in essence saying the USPTO erred. Talk about her digging deep into the science here to try to justify such a decision. I don't see it.
Again the thing we have going in our favor is the burden the generics have to meet on obviousness.
In terms of induce infringement, I think AMRN has proved its case here.
One last point, I believe Judge Du used to a partner at McDonald Carano--the same law firm that is on Amarin's side in this dispute.
@HDGabor how do you see obviousness playing out? You think it is a close call?
Cantor Call - I was somewhat surprised the lawyer on the call thought the question of obviousness was such a close one in terms of invalidating the patents. The lawyer indicated the generics were relying on Mori to show that it was obvious that EPA would lower TGs without raising LDL levels even though Mori was a different patient population. Lawyer seems to think Mori could be compelling for the generics in terms of showing obviousness.
While the generics have the burden here on obviousness and given the high clear and convincing standard, the question is will Judge Du really want to invalidate the patents and in doing so indicate that the USPTO examiner got it wrong.
As the lawyer pointed out Judge Du is a young judge, appears to be by the book, and she does not want to be reversed on appeal. While trials always carry risk, it is hard to believe she is going to go against the USPTO office and invalidate the patents. That truly would be bucking the system and against convention.
Let me guess were are going to close right below $20. The takedown here is comical. Can set your clock to it every Friday.
EPANOVA's failure was major. I don't think it has been widely appreciated by the market as of yet. The market would have used it as a negative against us had EPANOVA reported favorable results.
The fact that the STRENGTH-trial failed is huge!
Now if we can just get past this trial.....