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LI $25 >LI Auto-stock drops after cutting delivery outlook, as supply issues
outweigh robust demand
Amazon to hold Second Prime Day in October to boost holiday sales
These weird economic times demand investor attention: Morning brief
Monday, September 26, 2022
You are likely not doing enough to understand the unfolding disaster that is the global stock market and economic backdrop.
Chances are you have been beaten over the head by a financial advisor to "think long-term" and to not check stock prices daily on the nifty Yahoo Finance app. At the same time, this is a strange moment to be an investor — and the current situation demands your attention.
Have you ever seen interest rates ascend so rapidly as they are now because of what the Federal Reserve is doing? Look what it's doing to the housing market, as reported by Yahoo Finance's Ronda Lee.
Have you ever heard about a "soft" or "hard" economic landing so much before they became the buzziest finance terms of 2022? Fears of a hard landing are roiling energy markets, reports Yahoo Finance's Ines Ferre.
Ever see a company like FedEx miss on earnings estimates by more than $2 and then say it will slash almost $3 billion in costs just like that? I had choice things to say on this one last week on Yahoo Finance Live.
Ever see shares of ridiculously strong tech companies such as Nvidia (down 57% YTD), AMD (down 52% YTD) and Amazon (down 32% YTD) get pulverized primarily by the outlook for interest rates
Chances are you have been beaten over the head by a financial advisor to "think long-term" and to not check stock prices daily on the nifty Yahoo Finance app. At the same time, this is a strange moment to be an investor — and the current situation demands your attention.
Have you ever seen interest rates ascend so rapidly as they are now because of what the Federal Reserve is doing? Look what it's doing to the housing market, as reported by Yahoo Finance's Ronda Lee.
Have you ever heard about a "soft" or "hard" economic landing so much before they became the buzziest finance terms of 2022? Fears of a hard landing are roiling energy markets, reports Yahoo Finance's Ines Ferre.
Ever see a company like FedEx miss on earnings estimates by more than $2 and then say it will slash almost $3 billion in costs just like that? I had choice things to say on this one last week on Yahoo Finance Live.
Ever see shares of ridiculously strong tech companies such as Nvidia (down 57% YTD), AMD (down 52% YTD) and Amazon (down 32% YTD) get pulverized primarily by the outlook for interest rates?
Unless you are at least 60 years old, I venture the answer is No.
(60 plus is the majority on this board)
In any case, this moment in time calls for the all hands on deck approach.
To that end, here are a few things that I am watching this week
cont
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-weird-economic-times-demand-investor-attention-morning-brief-093058284.html
Coffee and early Break-fast time
MIT Engineers Design New Low Cost Battery for Energy Storage
Sept 24
>MIT engineers have created a new low-cost battery for storage of renewable energy sources made from inexpensive and abundant materials.
>Less expensive than lithium-ion battery technology, the new architecture uses aluminum and sulfur as its two electrode materials with a molten salt electrolyte in between.
>The smaller scale of the aluminum-sulfur batteries would also make them practical for uses such as electric vehicle charging stations.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/MIT-Engineers-Design-New-Low-Cost-Battery-For-Energy-Storage.html
The U.S. Wind Industry is Racking Up Big Wins
Sept 24
>The U.S. wind energy market is set for explosive growth, with the Biden Administration aiming to rival European and Asian markets for the renewable energy source.
>The Biden Administration is aiming to build out 15GW of floating offshore wind capacity by 2035, a push that will complement its plans for 30GW of (mainly fixed-bottom) offshore wind by 2030.
>If the U.S. is able to successfully build out significant floating offshore wind capacity, it will be able to take advantage of far larger and currently untapped waters with higher wind potential.
full
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Wind-Power/The-US-Wind-Industry-Is-Racking-Up-Big-Wins.html
The Global Water Crisis Could Crush the Energy Industry
Sept 23
>Water is growing more scarce due to climate change.
>Water scarcity could derail the green energy boom, and even hinder fossil fuel production.
>With rising concerns over water scarcity, mainly due to climate change, there are fears that the big transition to renewable energy will be hindered even further.
(Good read)
cont
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Global-Water-Crisis-Could-Crush-The-Energy-Industry.html
U.S. stock futures point to fifth day of losses on Wall Street to challenge
2022 lows
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stock-futures-point-to-fifth-day-of-losses-on-wall-street-to-challenge-2022-lows-11664183320?mod=newsviewer_click_realtime
Yes Sir, nice breezy morning, but allergy alert, KaChoo, woke me up Too Early!
Mish<> CME Halts British Pound Futures After Flash Crash to
New Record Lows vs the Dollar
13 minutes ago
This morning the CME temporarily halted the trading of British Pound futures following a Currency Flash Crash and Record Low in the Pound.
Cable reached ALL-TIME record lows (~4.5%) in the early hours of Monday's Asian trade after an aggressive flash crash occurred due to thin liquidity to support the pound generally caused by a domino effect from electronic trading systems executing trades.
CME Group had to halt GBP futures trading as a result of the flash crash.
Two primary factors for this unexpected move are attributed to a combination of a skyrocketing US dollar (from last week's 75bps rate rise), in addition to the UK's mini-budget announcement which included several tax cuts that seemed to weigh heavily on the GBP.
The British pound was already facing negative sentiment from traders/investors on Friday, after the UK's new chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced his new mini-budget that could widen the fiscal deficit.
more
https://mishtalk.com/economics/cme-halts-british-pound-futures-after-flash-crash-to-new-record-low-vs-the-dollar
Abu Dhabi leads Gulf declines on recession fears
Crude prices, a key catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets, fell for a second day on a stronger dollar and potential lower fuel demand in the face of an expected global recession sparked by rising interest rates.
Cont
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/abu-dhabi-leads-gulf-declines-recession-fears-2022-09-26/
Good Morning, a/c off?
OfTwoMinds<>2022-2030 Transformation or Stagflation
Sept 23
Some decades are easy and expansive, others are painful but necessary to lay the foundations for future progress.
Many people reject the idea of historical cycles due to their precision. I understand
the appeal of the objection, but it is nonetheless striking that transformative decades
tend to manifest in cycles rather that evenly over time.
Compare the decades of the past 70 years: 1952 to the present. How different
was the culture and economy of the U.S. between 1952 and 1959?
While there progress in civil rights and prosperity, the zeitgeist (the look, feel, values,
expectations, beliefs, mood etc..) of 1959 was not much different than 1952.
Cont..
https://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
Look for a bounce Monday, but don't expect it to last
Sunday 25
Friday's finish resulted in a nasty weekly candlestick, but a more bullish 'hammer' daily candlestick across the three lead indices I follow. Given that, I would look for some reaction from bulls, but by the end of week it could be bears again calling the shots. Markets are in a retest of the June swing low, but breadth metrics are not as oversold - the Nasdaq Summation Index in particular.
charts
cont
https://www.markets.fallondpicks.com/2022/09/look-for-bounce-monday-but-dont-expect.html
Column: Funds pivot hopes get smoked as Fed doubles down
Hedge Funds went into the Fed's Sept. 20-21 policy meeting betting on a sign that a dovish pivot is looming onto the horizon.
They got a pivot, but unfortunately for them it was a double-down, hawkish signal that interest rates will continue rising until inflation is firmly heading back towards target, no matter the economic fallout.
The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission's report shows that speculators cut their short positions in interest rate, S&P 500, and Treasuries futures in the week to Sept. 20, and significantly reduced their net long dollar position.
cont
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/funds-pivot-hopes-get-smoked-fed-doubles-down-2022-09-26/
The S&P 500 of 2008 May Signal the Next Big Move In Stocks
September 25
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542950-sp-500-2008-signal-next-big-move-stocks?source=feed_tag_editors_picks
Pound Flash Crashes 500 pips to Record Low Amid Global FX Carnage
As Things Start Breaking
Just as last week ended, with a relentless meltup in the exponentially rising US dollar, coupled with a collapse in cable, the yen, yuan, euro and so on, not to mention stocks and bonds, so the new week begins only this time the moves are even faster, even more brutal and even more acute, as we approach the breaking point.
Case in point, after starting modestly higher, the meltup in the dollar accelerated, as the Bloomberg dollar index exploded to new all time highs...
cont
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pound-flash-crashes-500-pips-record-low-amid-global-fx-carnage
MISH<> Ohio Clean Energy Campaign: Vote Yes for NO Wind Turbines
In rural Ohio, it's neighbor against neighbor. Those for and against a wind energy project no longer talk to each other.
15 hours ago
The 300-megawatt Apex Clean Energy project, which could cover a swath of the county with 50 to 60 wind turbines that reach up to 650 feet high, is being put to a vote in a referendum in November. The referendum is the first countywide vote related to wind or solar development in Ohio, where a total of 10 counties passed
reselutions this year banning such projects.
Apex has leased land in Crawford County for the past several years. But an anti-wind group gained momentum this year, and in May county commissioners passed a resolution by 2-1 vote banning wind projects under a state law, passed last year, that allows counties to ban wind and solar projects.
The resolution nearly killed the project, known as Honey Creek Wind. But a political-action committee funded by Apex gathered enough signatures this summer to put the resolution itself to a countywide vote in November.
more
https://mishtalk.com/economics/ohio-clean-energy-campaign-vote-yes-for-no-wind-turbines
Futures are RED-Prepare for S&P to challenge June lows
Have a Great FOOTBALL Sunday everyone! ~POOF~
The S&P 500 of 2008 May Signal the Next Big Move in Stocks
It was another brutal week for stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping by another 4.7% and well into bear market territory again. But what is clear about this 2022 bear market is that thus far, it is not all that different from 1937, 2000, and 2008 bear markets, and it continues to follow those paths.
Thus far, those bear markets have given us a reasonably good guide for what may happen next. Based on those charts, it looks like this recent slide lower in the S&P 500 isn't about to end anytime soon.
chart
Lots more @
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542950-sp-500-2008-signal-next-big-move-stocks?source=feed_tag_editors_picks
You never know, big decision! Morning Larry
Will 2024 be 1984?
August 17th, 2022
Daniel Greenfield
Daniel Greenfield, a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the Freedom Center, is an investigative journalist and writer focusing on the radical Left and Islamic terrorism.
From branding parents speaking out against critical race theory and sexual ideology in schools as terrorists to the Mar-a-Lago raid, Attorney General Merrick Garland’s radicalized Justice Department transforms pre-election political opposition into national security threats.
The infamous DOJ letter on schools was sent out a month before the gubernatorial election in Virginia, where the National School Board Association, not to mention much of the D.C. establishment, is based. Much as Garland’s DOJ operatives feared, the school protests helped elect Gov. Glenn Younkin and nearly toppled New Jersey’s Democrat governor in the bargain.
The Mar-a-Lago raid was carefully timed around the DOJ’s day policy of avoiding politically sensitive moves 90 days before an election. The real election it has its eye on is in 2024.
And, if it has its way, 2024 will be the new 1984.
The Steele dossier, the Mueller investigation, the Mar-a-Lago raid, and everything before and after are part of the larger Spygate continuum which is marked by the use of national security tools to suppress the political opposition especially before and during elections. The claims of national security, whether they involve the Russians or classified documents, are just a tactic that allow Democrat officials to wield virtually unlimited investigative powers cloaked in secrecy.
Beyond the details of these investigations, which turn as hollow as Steele or Mueller on closer examination, is the larger construct of a crisis that is described as a “threat to democracy”.
The “threat to democracy” is shorthand for a threat to Democrats. The source of that threat are conservatives and Republicans
cont
https://www.frontpagemag.com/will-2024-be-1984-daniel-greenfield/
Gasoline prices rise for a fifth straight day
The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. started rising again in the past week, after declining for nearly 100 days in a row during the summer driving season.
more
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gasoline-prices-rise-fifth-straight-day
Analysis: After feverish week, global investors lick wounds and brace
for more chaos
September 25
Signs of extraordinary times were everywhere. The Federal Reserve delivered its third straight seventy-five basis point rate hike while Japan intervened to shore up the yen for the first time since 1998. The British pound slid to a fresh 37-year trough against the dollar after the country's new finance minister unleashed historic tax cuts and huge increases in borrowing.
Cont
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-volatility-analysis-graphics-pix-2022-09-25/
Thanks DG, I'm afraid it's a toss-up at this time........
Those $130's back in June, could be coming?
But, I won't add any sooner than $110
Now isn't that an interesting chart.......
"SHE" sticks out like a sore thumb
Highest amount of PUTS in 30 years, that's some new record!
Wall Street milestone: ETF popularity hits record number
ETFs are seeing a record surge in popularity.
The industry hit a milestone with more than 3,000 ETFs trading simultaneously for the first time ever this month — a 30% increase since December 2020, according to Morningstar.
And this year investors are taking more active strategies, such as single-stock ETFs that offer traders exposure to the daily performance of a singular stock like Tesla
or Apple
.
cont https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/24/wall-street-milestone-etf-popularity-hits-record-number-.html
This is also a NEWS board, so we post a little of everything, and LOTS of stock posts
How to survive the worst bear market of all time
Today, with the stock market in meltdown mode, it’s natural to look back at other times of financial woe: The Great Recession of 2008-2009. The bursting tech bubble in 2000. The crash of 1987, never mind 1929 — and all manner of mini-downturns and flash crashes in between.
The one that gives me the most dread is the long, soul-sucking slog between 1966 and 1982 — in other words, the 1970s. The stock market went up and down and up and down, but in the end went absolutely nowhere for 16 years (see below.)
cont
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-to-survive-the-worst-bear-market-of-all-time-120034754.html
MISH<>As Few as Ten Congressional Districts May Decide 2022
Midterm Elections
If Democrats manage to hold the House and pick up a single Senate seat, they will unleash a wave of very inflationary Progressive legislation.
Majority Math
There are 435 seats so 218 is a majority
The current house makeup is 221 to 214
A flip of 7 seats, my base forecast right now, would give the Republicans a 221-214 majority.
Charts and more
https://mishtalk.com/economics/as-few-as-ten-congressional-districts-may-decide-the-2022-midterm-elections
<<--Was going to play w this a little, but no desire to be eaten alive today!
~~~POOF~~~
Be Careful
FOUR~~~~~~~~~Geez, think I will lay back down, THEY seem to have a plan
of PAIN!
->>FED ACCEPTS $2.359 TRILLION IN OVERNIGHT REVERSE REPO BIDS, A NEW RECORD HIGH, AWARDS AT 3.05% TO 102 BIDDERS
Getting BLOODY Awful pmkt....
It's the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine)
Global Food Supply Crises May Worsen Due to Poor US Harvest
“The current market expectation is that global grain and oilseeds markets need two consecutive normal crop years to stabilize global supplies,” said Chuck Magro, chief executive of Corteva, at an investor presentation this week.
This year’s grain harvest has fallen below normal yields in the West, hindering efforts to restock global crop supplies he explained.
The United States and South America, two of the world’s major crop exporters, faced persistent drought conditions this summer.
The hot summer worsened drought conditions in states throughout the U.S. Grain Belt, which saw a major reduction in the harvest due to lack of water and a wet spring planting season earlier in the year.
The Agriculture Department announced on Sept. 12, that it had lowered its nationwide corn production estimates to 13.9 billion bushels.
This is 3 percent lower than its projections in August, about 8 percent lower than the total amount harvested last year.
Projections for soybean production estimates in September were down 3 percent from August, down slightly from 2021.
More
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/global-food-supply-crises-may-worsen-due-poor-us-harvest
SCS Steelcase price cut to $12 from $16 at Benchmark
DOW in danger of breaking below June low as all DOW stocks are falling