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I agree. We won’t know until arraignments are handed out.
A real journalist would reveal or confirm his source with the company to verify truth. Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure AF is not a true journalist.
Hahaha...so true
Take everything that AF says with a grain of salt. He also has stated that DCVax is ineffective, but hasn’t given any hypothesis for why patients on the trial are living longer. I believe that amounts to nothing more than bashing.
Couldn’t agree more. The pressure to unblind must be relentless. But there is value in the tail, her scientists are telling her that, and she’s listening. The value will be shown when Big Pharma can’t compete with their trial data.
Speculative? Peer reviewed data is speculative? I believe speculation is for traders. In science, they call peer reviewed data results. While not final trial results, the 2017 data published in JTM is results nonetheless.
She might not need to negotiate. She’s probably busy pricing these therapies for right to try. Don’t forget, we’re in business now.
Maybe the Saudis are ready to venture into cancer care? Whoever buys this could someday own the market in cancer care. But it will take time. The unblinded data is still on simmer.
Woodford was self destructive to his position by trying to stronghold the company into partnerships that may or may not have been favorable. They diluted him into oblivion. They were also short sighted in not knowing how incredibly long this trial would take. But they’re making the right decision by waiting to unblind. It could take another company 20 years to replicate or beat the results of this trial. When DCVax becomes SOC, they should have a 20 year hold on the market and the proprietary knowledge to stay ahead of it. This isn’t just a drug. It’s a personalized therapy.
A partnership changes everything. Gives upfront cash to complete these trials. And the trials are going to be long because long survivorship is increasing significantly and the FDA has no way to address that.
That pretty much summed it up. They’re waiting for their scientific advisors to tell them to unblind. The principal UK investigator spoke of how the clinician in him wants this available right now, but how the scientist in him knows that there is still information to be gleaned from this trial and it has to stay blinded for now. It’s exactly the issue that right to try is supposed to address and I hope patients advocate for themselves moving forward.
I believe they have 54 million in warrant liability. That's 54 million in cash. It's also in addition to right to try revenue that could become a factor.
Yes. It sounds like there are some developments in the works.
Ex
They hadn’t hit the 233 OS events last June. While 100 was approximated, 331-233=98. You just don’t know. I can’t claim certainty either.
They had 100 alive a year ago and survival eventing had slowed to 1-2 per month. Is it really worth spreading this misinformation?
You’re right in every assessment of this company. We’re with you...sink or sail.
I believe 100 out of 18000k new cases represents the top 0.5% of patients. Unfortunately right now, those are probably the only patients that can afford a 150k cost with right to try. Once topline and approval come to fruition, there can be more serious discussions with insurers regarding reimbursement.
Hey Flip...any way we could get a calendar update after ASCO?
It’s time to retire the series B preferreds and start a series C at a higher price.
Big Pharma has big influence. Researchers are paid by someone.
My personal hypothesis is that the full range of stem cell antigens from the tumor are needed to generate an immune response using DCVax. If all the stem cell antigens are present in the tumor sample provided, the patient responds. If not, the immune response will not be complete.
I think that is why only 8% of those patients with historically favorable factors like age, MGMT status, and complete tumor resection responded to DCVax. GBM is quite heterogeneous and extends into normal tissue in microscopic fashion. Capturing the full range of antigens from the stem cells may be the challenge here. I'm excited to see where further research takes these challenges. Identifying malignant vs. normal tissues on a cellular basis will continue be a challenge and may complement the targeting with this therapy. Identifying growth centers is key to identifying stem cells. While there is work to do in this area, I'm confident we are at the forefront of a therapy breakthrough here.
The side effects are what make this therapy truly exciting. No side effects. None. Worst side effect from this therapy is cost. That will be managed with manufacturing efficiency gains.
I'd be happy with 12 billion. At the current share count, that would be around $13 per share.
Is this where Dr. Bosch shares that there are 80-90 patients still alive in the trial?
Turtle owns no shares. He probably is printing them as fast as he can to sell short.
Someday he'll probably have to pay dividends on all those shares. Or buy them back at a premium.
I can answer that. The warrant overhang would add to the outstanding share total. However, it would also generate cash for the company that it could use as it sees best fit. That could be to advance new trials, combo trials, or, who knows, maybe a share buyback at some point if revenue generation is exceeding expectations. Right to try is a major factor in our situation, as many patients could look to DCVAX after chemo fails. I see it all the time.
I'm excited to see how they start marketing this at ASCO with right to try for recurrent GBM. Once topline hits later this year, the goal will be to educate neurosurgeons on the best and most efficient ways to provide tumor samples for DCVax manufacturing. It seems like one of the biggest concerns about this treatment is cost to the patient. To be competitive, they're going to have to price DCVax effectively and work towards efficiency.
Institutions can’t hit the button in the .30 due to the price and where it’s traded. But BP can start bidding to management at ASCO.
Once revenue starts flowing in...it’s game over. Industry changing technologies don’t disrupt overnight. Just like Netflix and Amazon, it will take years.
This will probably be the primary way we treat cancer. They’ll still use radiation and chemo if immunotherapy fails.
But it would be interesting to see how much money could be lost by naked shorting a penny stock when a 5-10 billion dollar buyout offer comes in.
I agree. The unblinded results are shaping up to be even more remarkable than this blinded data. But the blinded data was great.
How many current shares are outstanding? With the paper being published, I would imagine there are about 900 million to 1 billion shares outstanding, although probably 100 million of those are in warrants at an average exercise price of around 0.50. Does this sound about right?
Just in time for ASCO. What great timing!!
The booths at ASCO this year should really focus on marketing to right to try patients. With RTT becoming the law any day now, NWBO should be able to provide information on how to obtain DCVax L for recurrent patients through RTT. That alone will begin to generate revenue for the company. Once topline is released, they can get through approval and start negotiating reimbursement with insurances. That funds further trials, new indications, etc.
The biggest question in my mind is whether BP lets it get that far. A 5-10 billion dollar buyout probably accompanies topline data that meets endpoints.
1.4 billion shares would bring in a ton of warrant money to fund a P3 in DC Direct. Or a combo trial.
You need to speak to an audience that doesn’t understand the context. The results published today are, in fact, remarkable. Perhaps you didn’t read the journal article? I would expect that the audience at ASCO will understand how remarkable these results are. Unfortunately, they aren’t as remarkable as the unblinded results of this 11 year trial are shaping up to be.
Maybe you should be at ASCO standing outside the NWBO booth with a sign stating “nothing to see here” while they’re presenting data that indicates a cure for 20-30% of all GBM diagnoses.
No doubt
I understand. I’m in for the long term on this. It has the potential to be an industry changing technology. Short term is always speculation. Long term is investing.
Absolutely. But, also consider that the market cap on this is extremely undervalued. P3 data is pointing to easily hitting endpoints. That would lead to approval. Cap should be at least 500 million at this point and 2 billion with approval and the ability to generate revenue.
This vaccine will change cancer care. NWBO could be sitting next to the other BP players in a few years.
Why would anyone sell here? They have a product that works really well. Topline and approval around the corner. Buyout offers might start flowing in at ASCO. I’m thinking a billion seems really low.
Quality of life won’t be affected by DCVax-L. The standard of care is the debilitating factor here. Chemo and radiation have long term effects. Hopefully immunotherapy will start to replace SOC, especially in younger patients.
Think about it...what controls the scientists who control the journals? $$$. BP.