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ari5000...SIF...just wanted to give you credit to the board. You called it the other day at $15.10. Price is now over $19.20. Nice going.
It'd be nice to see KRSL and EDAC run with it more.
Dave
E*trade stock...the sharks are swimming around their $28B dollar mortgage portfolio. Not sure what's going to end up happening. Stock is down from $23 a couple weeks ago to under $11 now.
Dave
re: level of fear....remember, it wasn't long ago when we'd gone how many hundreds of days without volatility of plus/minus 1% swings. Now we can't make it past ONE!
Dave
Littlefishl...EDAC...they came out with an SEC filing tonight indicating they just borrowed $1.5M. Must want it for something, though I thought they still had a line of credit. The company was so tight lipped before, then "bragged" a bit to get the Nasdaq listing, now are being tight lipped again. Not sure if this is an ominous sign of bad things or whether they've wised up and went back to just quarterly pr's. You have to admit that they kept the Nasdaq listing secret till the last second!
Not sure how this is going to play out. I still like the industry though.
Dave
JADE...Forget anything I have to say! Down 10% from my post just a little while ago.
note: I don't own any! Thank goodness. But do follow it.
Dave
JADE...$8.33...If you ever wanted another shot at it this MIGHT be the opportunity to buy in. They've completely screwed up their auditors/SEC filings. However, if you like their long-term approach to the jewelry stores in China than this may be your chance to start buying (lowest price in 5+ months).
Of course, there is always the chance they don't get their act together and it continues to slide.
Dave
EDAC....If the overall market holds up, I think aerospace stocks have got a solid run still in front of them. I still wouldn't be suprised to see EDAC at $20 next Spring if they keep growing revenue quarterly.
What definitely helps is a 3M share float. It doesn't take too many days of 100-200K volume to churn it over and put the newest investors in at higher levels. Any institution that wants in is forced to bid the price up. Today is a perfect example.
Dave
Mike...I think EDAC's stock price is setting it self up perfectly for another run if the company releases preliminary revenue #'s the first week of July that are solid. Got my fingers crossed for $14M in revenue for 2nd Q and gross profit of 19%. The backlog for the aviation industry is going to keep pulling in buyers for supplier stocks---just need EDAC to reinforce that idea now that they are getting more exposure.
MikeS97707...Looking pretty good. I'm thinking we'll see $10+ if the pre-announce good numbers for 2nd Q (would be around the first week of July that they do this). It'd be even nicer if they announced some new back order numbers around the time of the shareholder's meeting (next Wednesday). But, I can't be too greedy. I'm actually glad to see they held off releasing the Nasdaq news until it was factual (rather than announce an "application").
It's funny, but I had a hard time finding 6 stocks for the VMC contest. 4 of them are down (1 down 10%, 1 down 20%), 1 essentially flat, and 1 solidly up. Thankfully, the one that is up (EDAC) is the only one I own in real life! It's too bad I couldn't have "sextupled" up on it and rode the one stock to victory.
Hopefully volume picks up (on a more consistent daily basis) with the exposure to the Nasdaq.
Those extra shares you bought in the $5.70 range look pretty good now.
Dave
KIK...EDAC...At least for a OTC:BB stock they weren't about B.S. pr's. Rather than milk the Nasdaq news from application, to "waiting", to final approval, the company held the news close to vest and waited for final approval before releasing any news. This gets the company more respect IMO. Should bode well as an indicator of things to come.
Dave
SSkillz1....KEQU...I like the potential for a move up after earnings. The company has restructured enough that their gross margins the last two quarters are running at 19% and 20%. Even if revenue this quarter doesn't grow much versus last year (say it comes in at $24M), they'll end up doing over 40 cents/share plus this quarter (I'm looking for a stretch to around 45 cents). Last year, their gross margins for the quarter were around 12%.
With only 2.5M shares outstanding, any little improvement that hits the bottom line increases net/share quickly. Plus, a long base has formed in the $10.50 to $11.20 range so a move above that could give a run of a couple bucks.
Dave
IEAM...enclosed is the company's estimate of $25M (for 3rd Q)they gave during a presentation back in March. I would think they would be pretty certain of meeting it (if not exceeding it). Then they are estimating in the low $30M's for 4th Q.
Price slide down could be a move by "higher powers" to pull out loss stops. We've all seen it happen before right before good news.
http://www.ieam-inc.com/IEAM-BRiley-Final.pdf
Dave
Bubble? China Market over 4000! When it dropped from 3040 to 2771 everyone thought the bull run was over. Now the market is over 4000. Wow.
Dave
DOW Bull Run last 44 days.....Since the low of 11,973 on March 5th, the Dow is up 1262 pts in 44 trading days! It's also up like 22 of the last 26 days or so.
Dave
R59...EDAC...Gross profit margins were up again. That's a real positive. It'll be nice if they can start to break 20%.
However, for whatever reason (we'll have to see why) General & Administrative costs were up $210K from 4th Q. You're right in that the non-reoccuring expense was for 2006 not 2007. Perhaps bonuses were the reason when they did the contract extensions for management here recently.
Overall, the earnings went from 14 cents/share in 4th Q (at 24.5% tax rate) to 16 cents/share in 1rst Q (at 37% tax rate).
If they can continue that growth we'll be over $10 soon.
Dave
Jade...+24% from my post last week. Not sure who/why everyone was fighting to buy in today.
Dave
S&P 52 week high today. CNBC mentioned it's at a 7 year high. DOW is only 60 pts from new all-time high. Heck, even Greenspan in his latest conversation has stopped talking about a recession. Chinese market all all-time high. Many Europe markets at highs.
I've hit an all-time high myself today too!
Dave
JADE...lowest price since they announced on February 15th preliminary 4th Q numbers and desire to have 100 Enzo stores open by Olympics. As a foreign company they technically have until June to report 2006 numbers (latest B.S. from their pr is end of April now). Frustration is setting in while waiting---driving the price down under $9.
I don't own any but follow it. Wanted to mention it to the board in case someone is interested.
Dave
Federal bail-out on mortgages? The "powers that be" are going to do everything they can to make sure the American consumer can keep spending his/her money.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070411/ap_on_bi_ge/housing_woes
OT..Lentinman....The disparity between the rich vs the poor is the greatest since the Depression. It will only continue that way (and increase IMO). Could you imagine the control future generations of the Gates or Buffet's would have in the United States in 100 years if their families inherited all that money? The power and control would be amazing. There would be nothing like the growth of the middle class (after WWII) to dilute out their influence.
Sen. Edwards was discussing his plan of raising taxes on the most wealthy to pay for subsidized health care for all. Someone against it made an interesting point on whether we should just raise the top rate back to the historical 90%. He said he'd rather raise taxes than cut his proposed health care plans. The response back was if you raise taxes on the rich it won't matter, they already have their money. They will always be rich. They'll just invest to protect it. What you are doing in fact is making it so that the middle-class, no matter how hard they work, can never become rich.
And in reality, with the U.S. Government's fiscal irresponsibility for the last 20 years, they've pretty much doomed future generations to that. My generation is probably the last one that will be better off than their parents and I don't even know if that holds true (cause my parents bought a house and raised a family on 1 middle-class income, not the current two. In my situation I'm much better off, but I'm speaking in general terms for all). The thing of it is IMO the average person does not realize this or can turn off the tv set long enough to care. That's why I still have faith in them spending recklessly until the day of reckoning comes. Think of it this way:
(1) More people vote in American Idol than have ever voted in real elections. These are the people who think the U.S. Government is taking care of them.
(2) 2/3 of homeowners (according to bankrate.com) don't even know the specifics of what type of mortgage they have.
(3) Everyone complains about high gas, yet the moment GM does a $1500 "money back" gimmick the sales of Suburbans will shoot way up. They will buy based on "monthly payment" not on the actual cost of the vehicle.
It'll be interesting for certain. I respect your position of sitting on the sidelines. I always say the key is not how much you make in the market, but not to lose any. I'm just willing to continue taking a bit more risk for awhile longer is all. I'm already up a decent level now for the year. I'm willing to give up those gains (back to even) for the risk of sticking around to make more. I will admit though that the risk vs reward is not as good as it was even a few years ago.
Dave
Lentinman...I agree with you whole-heartedly that consumers becoming more conservative with their spending is the #1 concern. Consumer spending is 2/3 the economy.
However, I don't think there is going to be a collapse to the U.S. economy any time soon. The cut-off in easy money from refinancing has already been into play for awhile now. The increased monthly mortgage payments consumers are putting out isn't going to take effect immediately, heck it may takes years for it to really come into play. I think a very slow bleed of the economy for years is more likely the result. Business spending is still positive and can hold the tide back for awhile (1/3 the economy)---business spending will also stay strong if Asia & Europe growth continues. Strong employment numbers can give a false sense of security. I also see housing being flat for years but not necessarily dropping significantly (I think mortgage companies will fight hard to reduce the number of foreclosures). At worst this too will be a slow bleed rather than a bubble bursting.
The access to the easy refinancing "ATM" will be shut-off, however, in all downside scenarios you must take into affect the resiliance of the foolishness of the average American. I'm not kidding here. They will fight tooth and nail to maintain an excess lifestyle.
I'll state it again: Do not underestimate the desire of the average American to spend money (or the U.S. government's desire to encourage it). If they can't get it from re-financing their home they'll get it from their credit card. As long as the unemployment rate is strong and they have a job to make the minimum payment they won't stop. They could carry the economy for years with their credit cards. They've done a darn good job with it before. The U.S. government may even sacrifice the U.S. dollar to continue the charade. The U.S. would love for the Yuan to go up against the Dollar. It allows us to repay our credit with cheaper money. We've done it to the Japanese and Europeans, why shouldn't we do it to the Chinese. By dropping rates we could save the housing market and stimulate the economy. Even Greenspan many years ago dropped rates when inflation was over 2.5% to save the "consumer's perception" of the economy.
However, long-term the end result will be a collapse of it all. It's pretty much inevitable. I think we both agree to this. However, it's just IMO that's still years off.
Dave
Q for those predicting housing collapse......in the subprime, Alt-A, ARM's interest rate doomsday articles everyone posts.....they all assume mortgage companies WANT to forclose. They all assume that mortgage companies want to take back your property so they can "flip" it and make even more money! Dream on in the current real estate market. A mortgage company DOES NOT want to be stuck with your house or, worse yet, have to sell it for a loss.
Hmmm....unemployment is at a 5 1/2 year low.....real estate market is weak in general....maybe it would be better for the mortgage company to start working more with these home owners to get them into fixed loans so they can continue paying for their over-priced property for 30 years. But that doesn't make for sexy, "scary" articles.
"Yeah, but that's not how they do it". I read an article (couldn't find it again to link to it) where it said 3/4 of all forclosures could be prevented. The writer of the article predicted that mortage companies will become very agressive in the near future at getting people into fixed loans. Switching someone from 4% to 8% (in a ARM that is converting) so you can later forclose on them does not make sense when the mortgage company later takes a monster loss on unloading the forclosed on property. Especially when the mortgage company is looking at buying back non-performing loans---and the possibility that they end up going out of business because of it.
As for the "World is coming to an end" take a look at the Chinese Stock Market. It is now 3331 (vs 3040 on Feb 26th and 2771 on Feb 27th after the big 9% drop). Now the market needs to drop 17% to get back to it's 2771 "world is coming to an end" level. Yes, the Chinese market is not the U.S. market. But it sure was important to people the day it crashed. Now that it has rebounded it isn't though....hmmmm.
I'm cautious on the overall market, but I'm a long way from hiding my money in Easter eggs around the yard.
Dave
Wade...if you look at the trading pattern it's all this morning for the most part. I figure the volume this morning is from those that are already aware of EDAC and wanted to grab some more. I'm not sure how many "new" investors stepped in today. Also, I doubt any institutions are involved much at all (due to the OTC status).
The company is attempting to increase awareness with their new approach to news releases (January's 4th Q preview, new order's #s from a couple weeks ago, and today's pr). All of these pr's aren't "fluff" ones either. Unfortunately, they release them late at night for some reason rather than in the morning or right after market closes. I'm not complaining too much though. It's better than silence.
I just think it's going to take time and patience for the full value of this stock to be realized. In the meantime, it provides an opportunity to nibble at buying more on any dips.
Dave
10bagger..Deep water driller acquisition....SeaDrill confirms their desire today: (Listed by Reuters under GSF headlines)
** Norwegian oil driller SeaDrill Ltd. (SDRL.OL: Quote, Profile , Research), which is seeking aggressive growth, confirmed it is in deal talks with U.S. drillers such as Noble Corp. (NE.N: Quote, Profile , Research) and GlobalSantaFe Corp. (GSF.N: Quote, Profile , Research) [nN04382090]
Should be good to bringing value to the whole sector.
Dave
Hey Mike! Nice pr by EDAC. They are becoming very shareholder friendly in that they didn't waste any days putting out the results for the quarter. I was "hoping" they would toss something our way next week. The fact that they already did it makes me read between the lines more on their future intentions/possibilities.
I'd be very happy if their gross margins went up to around 18%+ for the quarter and the net 16 cents fully taxed (38%).
Also good to see backlog solid even after $12+M in revenue. Means they should/could get to the $15M/quarter number by 3rd (or more likely 4th quarter). That would put them at 20 cents/share or a run rate of 80 cents/year. A listing on AMEX or Nasdaq Smallcap would put us over $10 by December!
I'm loving it. My #1 holding.
Dave
Niles...SLB & options play...SLB reports on April 20th (options expiration day). It (or OIH or another oil service stock that reacts to SLB news) may be a interesting play to buy slightly out of the money options on Thursday with the idea of a pop Friday morning (assuming that SLB give good numbers and good guidance, which is possible given today's announcement). Every now and then you get one of these companies where serious money is made on options on the last day. This could be one that's setting itself up. Something to just tuck away and be aware of.
Dave
Here's why there is no recession right now (IMO) ......current unemployment rates among those with a college education is 1.9%!!! (February 2007 numbers) You can argue about the quality of those jobs, but that number is so incredible that it can defeat any subprime debacle that hits lower income households. If 2M households were foreclosed on in 2007 (which I doubt will occur) that still doesn't effect the other 100M households that are still capable of paying their mortgage. As long as the job market is strong for college educated workers, the economy may slow down, but will hold.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm
Wade...HSOA...With the new contracts and reduced stock price, HSOA has turned into a decent play. Even with reduced earnings in the 1rst Q (a weak quarter for them) of approx. 10 cents/share, a $5 price is more than fair. Also, lofty management expectations are getting behind them so the odds of them continually disappointing are diminishing.
The contract they received for the Florida tornado last month will play well going into hurricane season. On April 2nd is when the Colorado meteorologist reports his early hurricane season estimate. Right now, the estimate is 86% for an above average season vs 3% for a below average. This is due to the definitive switch to a La Nina season.
Shorts are powerful, but even they will get weak kneed when the storms start forming. This will cause enough volatility to make easy money here IMO (especially vs limited downside risk)
Dave
Mike...looking good for EDAC. Soon we'll be over $5 and garnering more attention. I still can't believe more people from VMC aren't attracted to this stock.
Hey, maybe soon you won't have to talk to yourself on this board!
Funny thing is that when it is $8+ is when everyone will jump on the stock. Strange how that works. That's alright. I'm thinking I'll be holding for $10+ or more so they can push it up and be my exit strategy. From $3.75 (through even today) I've bought so much that I'd be embarrased to admit it out loud.
Berliet...They are aware of that they qualify for the AMEX and the Nasdaq Capital Market (aka smallcap). That's the most definitive statement I've received. In 1998 or so they used to be listed on the Nasdaq (under a previous CEO who screwed the company).
Even if they go above $5 I don't believe they would qualify for Main Nasdaq market yet due to their shareholder equity being $10.5M vs needed $14M. However, they should be above that level by year's end.
I assume they will eventually transfer. The company seems to be a no-frills, no b.s., plodder type. It's just a matter of time.
EDAC...SSkillz1...I've been waiting for a pr on good news. From my research and discussions, the company issued the pr in January (on the $11M in 4th Q) as a primer of what's to come---in revenue and also in keeping the investment community aprised of the possibilities. This pr makes me happy because it means the next one will be a preview of 1rst Q revenue in mid-April to get everyone excited for May earnings report.
We're talking of a company that has the ability to do 65 cents/share in 2007 (and better in 2008), fully taxed, trading for sub-$5. The best thing is their relationships (most likely with UTX and their military/civilian aerospace contracts) are for years not months. Companies like this trading on the AMEX are $7-12, at worst a 40% gain from here.
I have to admit that EDAC is my #1 position and it is a monster of one!
Dave
All-time high for Chinese Stock Market tonight. So much for it's 9% drop earlier being the catalyst to a bear market in the U.S. Everyone will need to find another domino to start the topple. Maybe sub-prime loans since Y2K has already been used up.
U.S. stock funds received $1.8B inflow yesterday. Highest level of $$ in weeks. (Just reported on CNBC). Should bode well for the continued rebound.
Dave
Chinese Stock Market over 3000 again. Flirting with new 52 week highs. That didn't take long to rebound.
EDAC..littlefishl...Nice volume today. If Moses was selling (big volume around $4.60) then someone was buying because it picked up all those shares and headed upward. That's a positive for building a base.
Dave
DAAT...down 15%....got hit hard today on 4th Q update. I don't own any but follow. Commodities prices hit them hard (and worse yet they weren't aware of it).
The thing is that at $4.94 it is still cheap if things work out as they have planned. $9.49 would be more appropriate. I'm just glad to see volume strong. In these low-float/low-volume stocks volume is everything IMO. Once it grows then it allows anyone who wants out an opportunity to exit without driving the stock price down.
NOTE: I watched level II on it today (part of my screen). It was nice to see the bid at $4.82 and ask at $4.85 for hours. The seller wasn't looking to dump. That is the best because it forces the price upward.
Dave
Hweb2...EDAC...52 week closing high.....It's like the the "little train that could"---it just slowly plugs upwards. "I can do it, I can do it". Soon it'll break over $5.
Hweb2..PED..I bought it for the VMC contest a couple weeks ago. I didn't mention it on the board because it is not very sexy. An investor that owns 10% still keeps buying over $4(from SEC records). It's one of those little stocks that management keeps growing.
Dave
EDIT...so much for not sexy. From a quick review it looks like they did 17 cents/share for 4th Q!
Mike...nice board here....I saw EDAC being discussed on the VMC board in late January. Couldn't believe the stock wasn't higher (at $3.75 then). I have to admit that I did my fair share of mopping up what was available then. I've added on to it (including last week) in the lower $4 range when it dipped.
I see it as nice solid small company. Would be worth $7-9 if they continue doing what they are doing (and get off the OTC BB). Just patience needed.
For Q, I could nitpick. Margins were ok, but would have liked to see them around 18%. The 4th Q tax rate was lower than normal so that helped numbers a bit. But it was good to see administrative costs at only $700K. I see margins improving as the revenue goes up some more. I can easily see the $11M being duplicated for 1rst Q. The increased backlog (and desire to buy more equipment for future growth) indicates that management sees strong possibilities.
I think we've got a winner here. I'd love a KRSL thing to occur, but in this current market I'd just love a stock that holds it's value!
Dave