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You got me with that argument lol
FnF were (a) bailed out by the government; (b) only operate through implied capital and gaurantees under the bailout; and (c) the companies have basically no capital of their own in their highly capital intensive industry
What planet are you on? These are companies in poor shape given their capital levels!
lol, will she be 80 when she actually goes to trial?
Going to be a pref conversion when the "Big Bang" deal between Conservator (Calabria) and major holder (Treasury) is done on PSPA amendment -- massive pref holders include Paulsen and other huge, early and continuing Trump campaign backers. American politics would never be influence by donor's, right? LOL
Skeptic, I actually think Judge Sweeney has integrity -- but if she stepped back and asked how she thought the plaintiffs have been treated in her court. Well, I hope she would be abashed...
C provides a model, also one from most restructuring deals...
Think what you like
Bought back into the prefs this morning, just a little... in case SCOTUS does the right thing (i am not holding my breath)
I read the actual ruling document, thanks.
There is a reason big companies don't go to trial -- it is a crap shoot.
Who knows what Sweeney rules -- or whether she goes the $1 AIG damages route
PLUS Treasury could appeal her ruling too, then rinse and repeat crap shoot on appeal
Except congress passed a law called HERA that says differently about the conservator in this instance... or so all the judges faced with HERA have ruled.
Judge Sweeney has not had a trial and Judge Sweeney has not ruled on the cases at trial (only a motion to dismiss with its special constraints) -- so no one knows what Judge Sweeney's view might be...
Folks, when could the SCOTUS Seilia opinion drop? I have not been following this stuff and my memory is wiped clean on the details. Thanks in advance
BTW $25 / $1.70 = 14.7 common shares
But assume an 20 % haricut, so
$25 pref = 20 / 1,70 = 11 common shares
You can get a $25 pref right now (FNMAS) for $6.50 or the price of 4 and a bit common shares, so roughly three times the common shares y going pref
Hmmm...
Treasury and Calabria, as Director of FHFA and conservator, will have to amend the PSPA and move the process forward -- converting pref accomplishes a bunch of things like it did with Citigroup... All that is DONE BEFORE return to a board which will be completely irrelevant (and BTW the conservator has no fiduciary responsibility to shareholders as even Sweeney made clear...)
"Once they leave conservatorship..." may not refer to anything that comes to pass
Other than those two, you are batting 100
Also ask Craig Philips the architect of the Treasury plans who mentioned pref conversion after leaving Treasury...
David Stevens and Chris Whalen and Michael Bright and Jim Parrott have a very rough year coming then - oh, plus rebirth as butt flies...
I love this from Calabria -- MBA wanted market-oriented solution. Turns out they only want a market for OTHER people, not for their whiny ass lobbying group... lol
Calabria serving them their own medicine and they have spit the dummy
"News"... repaeting stuff Calabria ha said before...
Stevens, Bright and the MBA mob all seeking to use FnF save their client's asses -- massive attacks on Calabria to that end
Really, Calabria should let them fry... and I think he will.
The recent "moves" were smart PR -- sounded good and at NO cost lol
So you are happy with Calabria then?
Yeah, that is my worry - they, or “they”, start rumors about receivership or other shenanigans and The pref/common will take a hit. I would rather buy at that point than be holding then...
And I don’t want a turtle...
I can see such scenarios but I think they are far far less likely than pref outperforming.
Hi Joseph, thank you for the response. I am negative and I don’t have your tax consequences, so I am happy to have had the chance to sell.
I still think this is dead till the election. I agree a Biden win gives impetus to action. (Various data points suggest Biden will win, and perhaps Dems might sweep all three branches, so they better nail down their Plan.)
I think the chance of SCOTUS doing something with big money implications is close to zero - and these federal judges clearly think about that. So I am more worried about being in FnF with crisis ongoing than missing out. I think people are wary of FHFA mission creep - which has begun.
I will buy back in a little if the price goes a bit lower on pref - I would be heavy buyer if hedge fund blows up and has to sell and we get back to lows. ( Apparently none of them were long oil..)
One thing I actually worry about Is Mnuchin - he is doing all these deals and getting great press. So he better keep his head down or he will be gone - and then I think RnR is in trouble.
Thank you for the Biden win point favoring action, that is good to keep in mind prior to election. A lot of people think Trump has a chance, I think a Dem landslide is likely. So maybe that is traceable...
The next data point is whether capital rule comes out in May and what it says.
Thanks for your thoughts, potty
Joseph, serious question, have you any views about how likely an administrative move is this year? Are you positive or just waiting for the courts?
Just curious what your take is - unchanged, positive, negative on administrative action in the Fall. Thank you in advance for your reply, best, Potty
If the pref goes down he toilet, then the commons will follow....
Careful what you wish for
lol - will we get capital rule in May even?
He used "COVID 19 ate my homework" already, but he still has "Dog ate my homework" to play, so probably not...
Ooops, I meant "Cat ate my homework", of course
FnF being used to carry the can again? Will this meagre move be enough for the lobby that is far, far more influential than Calabria?
I would not be surprised to see Calabria forced to do more
As an NRZ shareholder I am really grateful for the help ofc...
Rick disappeared for a few months another time, so fingers crossed he is fine... I am hoping so.
Great, I am reassured about your safety...
Better lie down then..
People said he was some contractor with Dem connections, but what do I know... back to painting the bathroom (since I am not allowed to post here)
Wow, eerily similar...
Finished painting the dining room, what you want me to do?
Pref posters on twitter showing the pressure:
Holden posting spiderman...
Bradford flashing account balances...
And this in April when they have to sweat all the way to Nov to find out whether it is jackpot or bust...
I fear for their (remaining) mental stability -- maybe we should all clap at 11m EST for FnF pref holders?
Gunfight when we arrive -- you that keen to be shot???
Yeah, your $1200 check is coming for Covid relief...
Correct - except *maybe* Steve Mnuchin
yeah, now I remember why I never registered! lol
I coughed up the $29 canadian to register today...
I have a good liquor store nearby, so I might try that this summer...
I like Goose island generally, but I only drink wheat beer in the summer when it is hot...
As an Englishman the boat has long since sailed on avoiding alcohol -- and I am with the Danes, not the surgeon general, on the medical benefits of alcohol
BTW Thought the Surgeon General was a sailor? Teetotal sailors? Next thing you know the President will be teetotal and then who knows what happens... oh yeah.. I forgot...