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I loaded a couple more short term picks for tomorrow, but event risk over the weekend makes me think it is best to trade the short term stocks in "lite" mode, by that I mean make any position sizes much smaller than your normal. I also added a another group of potential breakouts, which are best as day trades.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Thanks Steve, you make a good point. I didn't even think of the rally potential affecting shorts if nothing happens.
Thanks again....if you would like to look around the site more just drop me an e-mail and I'll send you a password.
Sam
sam@savvy-trader.com
From Briefing: re:WTSLA
08:01 ET WTSLA Wet Seal exceeds consensus by $0.02 (21.79)
Reports Q1 net of $0.28 a share, $0.02 better than the Multex consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.18. As announced previously, sales increased 13.6% to 156.62 mln.
Since world tensions continue to increase I don't think it would be a good idea to add any short term trade positions that would be held over the long weekend, except maybe one in gold. The SSRatio was up for the first time in 7 days, with moves the market risk to low.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Finally a day with buying at the close, bodes well for tomorrow...
Sam
I had to do some thinning on the short term watchlist, and added only one new one, PRX. The breakouts really did well today, with a bad market daytrading breakouts is a good alternative to going hold for several days.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
EZ,
My fear would be about the fall, if we are really staging for a war in Iraq, the market may be pretty iffy around then....not to mention it's pretty iffy then anyway..<g>...so with that in mind, you might move your long term stuff into a small cap value fund around November....
Just a thought...
Sam
I had 3 out of 11 on our main watchlist stop out today, FAF, IMNX (after a strong start) and STZ. STLD was the best gainer out of those 11, and it wasn't much. On the other hand, the breakouts did well, especially since 3 out of seven were gold stocks, AEM, FCX and NEM. BSX and NOVN also did well, 5 out of the 7 up....I didn't buy one of them....so it goes...
Sam
See if the NAZ gets support tomorrow, it has almost closed the gap of last Monday.
Sam
We still have a 1/2 a position in NLS....and half of its profit disappeared in the last hour today...<g.
The only trade I made today was CUB at 29, it is a low floater and we don't put those with that low of a float on the watchlist. We'll see, it can trade pretty wild.
Sam
EZ,
Sorry, your message never came up on my screen today...
I do the QQQ's, long after the internals get a grip. The last few days their hasn't been strength in either the bear or bull hands......course after today maybe the bearish case will be made....I'll have a better idea later.
If you're looking out longer term, I'd go SPY.
Sam
ODP has been on our list for the last week, moving today based on SPLS earnings.
Sam
IMNX one of our few dabbles in the biotech group in recent weeks, seems to be getting some interest today.
Sam
The screening for short term stocks only had three stocks, AZO which has earnings tomorrow after the close, HAR which was on the list today, I'll be upping the price range on it, and LNY (Landry's Seafood).
Sam
Nothing on our list stopped out today, a couple got dang close, one that I have a position in STZ was two cents above my stop at one point today.
Sam
AGY was 5 cents shy of the buy level, worth a shot tomorrow.
HAR was 1 cent shy of hitting the buy level, it has run up a bit too much, so it may be out of play.
PRHC was a buy at $23.50.
Sam
Current group strength of the top IBD groups is posted at: http://www.savvy-trader.com/groupstrengthMar22.htm
Sam
Here are three more short-term trade potentials starting Monday. The three are in different stock groups will distributes the risk of one group being weak.
AGY is a gaming stock we follow on our weekly Growth Stock Journal watchlist. It has a buy of $34.10 or lower with a stop at $32.92 and a target of $40.82. This gives a risk of losing $1.18 and a gain of $6.72.
HAR sells audio and video equipment. It has a buy of $58.11 or lower with a stop at $56.14 and a target at $61.03. This gives a risk of losing $1.97 and a gain of $2.92.
PRHC operates acute care hospitals. It has a buy of $23.5 or lower with a stop at $22.42 and a target of $25.32. This gives it a risk of losing $1.08 and a gain of $1.82.
All three taken together have a risk of $4.23 points if all stop and a gain of $11.46 if they all hit their target exit. Likely to be a combination between. Both AGY and PRHC will have to back down some from Friday's close to hit the top of the buy range.
Sam
I took another look at AZR, one of the three from the May 5th list, and the only one that didn't go up (ANN stopped out first) and now AZR looks like a good play right here with a stop about $20.40.
Sam
JH finally hit it exit target price on Friday +1.90. I'll have a few more worked up by tomorrow to start off on Monday.
Sam
Commentary from last weeks Journal....
Boiling frogs, stops and related phenomenon.
In case you never have heard of the boiling frog theory of human input/output I'll review it for you. The idea is simple, but application to everyday life is amazingly useful.
Take one happy green frog, give it a kiss, and drop it into a pot of cool water. The frog will swim happily about waiting to turn to a prince or princess. Place the pot, frog and blissful scene on a burner and turn the heat on.
As the frog gets warm it will do what it can do to cool off, figuring this warm spell is only temporary and the water will cool off shortly. As it gets even warmer the frog will try to get your attention, whistle a little tune, but mostly concentrate on the kiss you left him with. You certainly wouldn't allow this to go on much longer....would you?.
When the water starts getting hot, the frog will count his toes, thinking that surely by the time he has them all counted the water will start cooling off again. After all, it has never been this hot before, and he decides he isn't going to ever get back in this pot again, no matter what you say or do!
As the water increases each degree the frog tries to ignore it more and more, it can't get hotter than this...........can it?
Ah but it can, and soon enough the frog is cooked. At no point was the exit obvious to him and no escape was ever made.
Now, with one frog boiling away in the pot, take a second one, kiss it, and toss it in the pot with the first, without hesitation when it feels that heat, it will spring right back out, and not likely trust you again!
Stops work the same way, they don't allow you sit by and rationalize your losses until you're cooked, you'll be out'a that pot!
I sold 1/2 of our DFXI position up 4.80, and bought a position in STZ at 28.10...
Sam
STZ from our weekly Journal list is the only additional stock for a potential short term trade tomorrow.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
So far the week has been favorable to the short term trades. Out of our list on Monday, that traded within the buy range, CCRD stopped out, it was one we owned from last week and we were stopped out at the open. Our only energy stock, MDR, also stopped.
The rest have had a good week, AGY, APOL, DFXI, SCRI, TTEC and JDAS. We still have positions in APOL and DFXI. The one that didn't hit a buy was DRS, This is one from our weekly Journal list and we've traded it a couple times. I mentioned in our commentary that it looked to have support at 44, it has hit there twice this week, I missed it both times...
Lastly, there is FAF and STLD, which have pretty much remained in the same range all week.
Sam
JH is close to hitting its exit target. Nothing else did much on today's list. STLD was up but really hasn't broken out of its range. MIMS stopped out. We are still holding DFXI.
Sam
In addition to those on the home page, take a look at NTBK and WTSLA.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Mixed day, but generally good...see how the numbers work out this evening.
Sam
I removed APOL, DFXI and SCRI since they all have gone to high above support. I added AGY, IMNX and NCOG. We've had AGY since Monday and it is a little high of support so wait for it to weaken. KKD hit its sell target today.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
I haven't finished with the data yet, but it is nice to have a day where I can remove 1/2 the watchlist cause the stocks have gone to high off support.
JH still remains a point short of its target. STLD is milling around going no where fast.
Sam
Whew....nice to see this hold up another day...since I'm still holding APOL and DFXI....
Sam
We've been discussing with the rally today qualifies as an IBD buy. They do have an article today. Any buys yesterday have continued to do well.
Sam
I wouldn't be too surprised to see JH hit its target exit tomorrow. It closed pretty strong.
Sam
We did stop out of CCRD at the open this morning, but turned around and got into DFXI which is one of our weekly Journal stocks. I put several of those on the watchlist today since the was nothing coming out on the short term screening. (APOL, AGY, DFXI, DRS, FAF and SCRI were all from that list)
I like most of these again, except DRS, which has gone up too far. I added MIMS for tomorrow.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Looks like a rocky start to the week. We had no short-term trades come up on our screening so I added a few of the stocks that are close to support on our Journal watchlist. Be careful tomorrow.
Sam
Out of the 3 starter short-term trades, JH is the only one that is still in play. With the market as it is, taking the profit on it might be the best policy.... but we'll continue to track it to either the target price of $33.25 or the stop at $29.99
Sam
Out of the three on yesterday's watchlist CCRD DCN and STLD, DCN was the only that stopped out. I'd expected CCRD to stop, and it was 3 cents just above at the low of the day. Looks like it will take a strong Monday to avoid the stop on that one.
Sam
So far it looks that way, MM. It is going to take a good rally on very good volume to change that expectation. Yesterday was sure ugly the only thing I tried to buy was CUB and I was just a bit too late ... and not willing to pay the ask at the time....oh well.
Sam
The market lost for 38 to 50% of yesterday's gain, but didn't stop out any of the trades. There were no new additions to our short term trade list, I removed CACI since it has moved to far up from support.
We entered a position in CCRD at $16.50
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
I never bought JH, and I've removed it from our watchlist as it has risen to high off support. (I'm still smarting over ANN <g)
Sam
It was nice to have a day where we removed stocks off the list cause they rose to high above support. A couple new ones to look at:
CCRD on the more speculative side with a buy range of $15.71-$16.80 and a stop at $15.60, target at $20.16. (software/communications group)
DCN with a buy range of $19.75-$20.19 and stop at $19.58, target at $21.23, its in the Auto & Truck Parts group.
Sam