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Maybe, or maybe it will be .20.
Hope you are prepared for the other side of the coin, it could get really ugly if the Rett data isn't good.
Really? I've posted several links that talk about the average cost to bring a drug to market.
Can you please share a link supporting your statement that $250M is sufficient to bring a drug to market? What drug do you know of has cost less than $250M to develop, manufacture, distribute, and market?
I really hope AVXL works out but my optimism is waning as I see more and more shady activity by Dr. Missling. His lack of transparency about the preferred shares, the cash needs, his refusal to tell us how many people remain in the extended trial (thanks for that catch Doc328!), and cherry picking data all point to something that isn't good cooking up behind the scenes.
Hopefully it works out but I don't think Dr. Missling is confident either. From a TA perspective this is a screaming buy at these prices. Way oversold. From a long term bearish perspective, if the Rett trial fails (and I think it might based on the offering), $2.58 is going to look like a mountain top.
Yes, lots of insinuations that Anavex is a miracle drug. In fact, I recall reading somewhere some people were saying that the government might force the population to take Anavex as preventative medicine.
It's this type of sentiment that should be alarming to most rational investors who have the perspective to see both sides, the good and the bad, of this potential investment opportunity.
$250M is not nearly enough to get a drug to market. It is enough to push the can down the road a little longer. The preferred shares are a nice tool to get around the 100M authorized share limit, which in theory could provide the funding -- at a cost -- to take 273 to market without a partner.
I agree with you, to a point. Everyone is responsible for his or her investment decisions. That said, it's entirely valid for investors to be critical of managements' decisions when such criticism is warranted. It's okay to say that Missling has not done a great job and that under better leadership the stock price would be higher, or that short attacks wouldn't have nearly the same impact if AVXL had the legitimacy of a reputable partner, etc.
As for being in a much better position than December -- that's true for every stock across the board. The entire market was in a slump then due to the trade wars and government shut down. What specifically puts Anavex in a better position today than it was a few months ago, aside from being that much closer to Rett trial data -- which may or may not turn out well?
The stock price isn't dropping because it's being shorted by an organized entity or group. It's dropping because people like me are taking profits when the price runs 35% on bogus news (i.e. Russell rebalancing). The Russell Index is fun to watch, but it didn't affect AVXL in any way in the intrinsic happenings at headquarters. Would the stock have gone up 45% without funds being forced to buy last month? Probably not. So why isn't it fair to say that the stock shouldn't drop back now that this artificially-induced external demand has decreased?"
The fact is the market sees a company with a drug for a disease that historically has a next to nothing success rate. It seems a company that is going to dilute its shareholders to the tune of $250M, and it sees a company that has a CEO who has a tendency to make opaque statements, such as the 18 month runway and the preferred stock being used to thwart a hostile takeover (as opposed to circumventing the authorized limit which is just as likely). It sees renowned members of the Scientific Board leaving to take positions at competitors. It sees a rabid base of shareholders who will continue to support Dr. Missling no matter what.
All of that together makes for a compelling reason to sell if you're a retail holder sitting on decent gains, knowing that in all likelihood you can buy back your shares a few weeks later for a 30% discount. The chart history speaks for itself.
Your short interest data is two weeks old. If you want the most accurate numbers you have to pay for it. A worthwhile expense IMO.
Also, the short covering you're referring to is in the past as a result of the Russell run. What do you suppose the short interest numbers will look like when the July numbers are posted for the public to view for free?
Like I said, pay for the most accurate data. It may change your perspective about what the shorts are doing, and when.
As it stands, there is definitely not a rush to cover from the July 3rd news to date.
AVXL is right at the prior point of support, no coincidence it landed today at $2.80 (give or take a penny or two).
Go back and read a bunch of old posts, this was the same support level that was discussed in May.
Needs to hold. I think it will.
Shorts aren't desperate. Longs are.
Anasthesia is right -- shorts are putting the longs to the woodshed this month.
And it's going to get a lot worse if the Rett trials don't succeed. AVXL drops to under .50 if that happens, easily.
If it does succeed, I think $5-$6 is likely.
I don't think its a scam. Lots of trials don't succeed despite their best efforts.
I think it's a novel approach to a disease nobody truly understands, and as such it has a very high chance of failure -- as do all Alzheimer's drugs in current trials. If it somehow succeeds, it instantly replaces Aricept as the primary ALZ fighting medicine which is why some investors are willing to throw a few dollars per share at it and hope for the best.
Missling, however, seems more like a carnival barker than a CEO. Yeah he has academic credentials but that doesn't amount to squat in the real world. He's playing heads I win tails you lose with our money -- regardless of the outcome, he pockets millions of dollars. His interests aren't all that aligned in this perspective, since he gets more and more cheap warrants dilution isn't, either.
Chart officially broken. Question now becomes if we see 1s before we see 4s again?
Unlikely but I wouldn't bet the farm it can't happen.
In the meantime, let's see if AVXL gets kicked out of the Russell Index on the next rebalancing.
Close to hitting my price target to add some flip shares.
The options don't concern me so much because he's aligned with us, though he isn't really affected by dilution if he keeps getting more of them.
The salary is a concern, and you have to wonder if his decision not to partner is in any way influenced by stretching this yarn out as long as possible to squeeze what he can while he can -- i.e., if he raises $250M, which clearly isn't going to be enough to get a drug to market all things considered -- he has 3 or 4 more years of runway (min) to extract a nice salary from the coffers.
I agree. Dr. Missling is a legend in his own mind but he's done absolutely nothing to create shareholder value. AVXL is worse off with him in charge, but what are we going to do? We're stuck with him, so long as we believe that A273 is going to be effective that is what matters in the end. Still, it's not much fun watching this CEO continually erode shareholder value literally every time he speaks.
This is actually a good point.
The piano stuff was overblown, too. A lot of fluff and hype that got a lot of people to invest in a company that maybe isn't as magical as that news report made it seem.
What would be the consensus if the piano player died a month later due to Alzheimer's?
It's already at the avg volume traded and there's still 3 hours left to trade. Regardless of volume, and you can't say it's a low volume day just because a few shareholders decided to go all-in when this was .15, the stock is getting hammered. A 6% loss in a day is pretty substantial no matter how its spun.
Those who own hundreds of thousands of shares may end up becoming multimillionaires. They may also be standing on a ledge if the drug fails. Everyone has their own level of risk tolerance and investment capital.
But, as I said the market today (collectively) doesn't think too highly of gut bacteria. And its not just today. Stock is down 25% in the past month. A lot of firms HAD to buy AVXL as part of the Russell rebalancing. That's a lot different than firms wanting to buy because the stock is undervalued (which I still think it is). I prefer run-ups that aren't forced as part of an index shift. But that's just me.
Of course it's not good from a short term perspective. From a long term perspective the stock price doesn't matter unless you believe that the market has knowledge of the P3 results.
It's not meaningless to the intellectual community. I'm sure that AVXL's research is providing a lot of great information.
It's meaningless to the stock market, and to our vested interest in seeing the share price go up.
The market clearly agrees with my sentiment, otherwise we'd be green. Instead it's back in the 2s, it broke the $2.89 support, and the sky is fallllllllllling lol.
My point is that from a financial perspective nothing changes with this new information. Nobody's rushing in to put money in Anavex because it restores gut bacteria function. Maybe it's another indication that Anavex is effective, maybe it's all a coincidence, but we've had plenty of indications now that the drug works and ample time for people to invest if they wish -- but they aren't going to until the risk is diminished. This information doesn't diminish any risk, the drug is still just as likely to fail or succeed today as it was last week.
Par for the course. Meaningless PR and meaningless oral presentation created a short .20 pop and right back to neutral.
Now that we've gotten that nonsense out of the way, maybe AVXL will have something worthwhile to report that actually causes a permanent revaluation of the share price.
Fingers crossed that revaluation isn't for the worse.
Gut info is meaningless for the share price. Sleep is meaningless for the share price.
The only thing that matters is brain function, and we are months if not years away from getting that data.
In the meantime Rett trials may produce some preliminary data to help inform a better decision about the Alzheimer's odds of success. If Rett is positive, investors on the fence will be more apt to buy in. On the other hand, if Rett is bad news, not only will those on the fence be tempted to go short but there will be an exodus of current longs.
The gut and sleep and all the other stuff is fun to talk about to pass the time but no intelligent investor is going to put money into AVXL because of it. Brain data, that's where the money is.
For those who are optimistic about AVXL, this is probably as good an entry price as you'll get. I can see the stock moving .10-.20 either direction during/after the conference but as far as average goes, if you look at the 20, 50, 100 DMA it's all lining up around here. Probably not too much risk for the next 3-6 months buying here, maybe 20% downside vs 50%+ upside.
Obviously the news isn't at all significant otherwise there would have been a PR like in years past.
Yawn.
I bet I can predict what the overall gist will be: we're seeing good results so far but more data is needed in a more robust trial to make any definitive conclusions.
And we need money!!!!!
All valid points, and evidence is mounting that Dr. Missling is kind of sketchy when it comes to transparency with investors.
Everyone knew dilution was going to happen but he reiterated that there is no problem with funding. The honest thing would have been to qualify that with the need for funding later on. $250M isn’t enough to go without a partner no matter how many shares are issued.
Everyone thought the preferreds were to prevent a hostile takeover. Just as plausible they’re going to circumvent the 100M A/S limit. But nobody wanted to hear or discuss that possibility.
Not everything is a positive. The shelf registration isn’t one. If it were for a billion dollars that would signal maybe he’s looking to go without a partner because that’s enough to take a drug to market.
Maybe the offering is to raise money for A371. If you’re unsure about long term chances raising money now isn’t a bad idea while there are still people willing to invest. Either way, the after hours holiday release was a shady move by a questionable CEO who just weeks earlier boasted of the fact the company has plenty of runway for the long term.
AVXL is a good lotto ticket stock for those not interested in trading the dips.
This is true. If there were good news it would have leaked. I don't think there will be bad news though. More of the same probably. Preliminary good news but will require more time to determine if its valid.
Maybe it'll be on the market. Maybe it won't. There's no way to claim that it will without P3 trials concluding.
Remember back when AAIC was a big deal for AVXL investors? Now it's just another day.
Make of it what you will.
I do think it will be sold soon. I think Missling wants as much money as he can get before any P3 results come back. You know, just in case...
This is a joke, right?
Nobody wants to invest in Giggles n Hugs because of Joey Parsi. He's inept. Just look at the idiots who gave him $9M over the past ten years to develop this concept.
Investor expansion? Hahahahahaahahahahahahaahah.
The other reason nobody will give him money? He won't spend it to expand. He'll waste it on other stuff, including his own salary, just like he did with the offering. How are those 6c warrants looking.
And how did that WeFunder campaign go?
Joey is a moron. And he was "allowed to resign" from TDAmeritrade. Look at his FINRA report. What's that tell you about his ethics. Or the fact he couldn't cut it at community college. What's that tell you about his intellect?
Not to me. Every big run starts out small. Maybe Missling put the brakes on a run that would have become big.
If sleeping better improves mortality rates, why not just pop an Ambient or take some NyQuil and call it a day. Much cheaper than an expensive new drug available with Rx only.
I think it's a stretch to say that a 25% haircut is "little market reaction."
I wonder where the stock would be trading without the Russell inclusion?
You may be right though about the leverage having some extra money in the bank provides in negotiations for Rett marketing/distribution. Problem is that if that money comes with heavy dilution, it's a moot point.
I'm old myself. I get what you're saying, I don't know if you get what I am saying.
Sleep is important. And maybe AVXL has a drug that promotes sleep. And if it turns out that A273 is useless for memory care, maybe AVXL can still try to seek approval as a safer alternative to the current sleep drugs on the market (Rx and over the counter).
That said, if this is all A273 does well, it will not bode well for the stock price and our chances of getting A273 approved. It's a secondary endpoint for a reason. If Anavex misses its primary target, the market is going to have a field day with shorting the shares.
The FDA wants to approve a drug that restores or prevents memory loss. That's the goal of every single Alzheimer's drug in development and if it can't do that, the FDA will turn its attention to other prospects that maybe will.
I get what you're saying but there are a dozen sleep products already on the market. If people have issues sleeping, there are FDA approved drugs to help them. And over-the-counter drugs, too. Maybe the market isn't fully saturated and there is room for one more, but it's a highly competitive space already.
There's a reason why AVXL is trying to position itself as a neurological company and not a sleep-aid company.
If 273 promotes better sleep, great! That's all fine and dandy but it doesn't make AVXL a multi-billion dollar company unless there's more to the story, i.e. memory retention or restoration.
I'm not discounting the importance of sleep. I'm discounting the FDA's opinion of A273 if its only benefit is improving sleep. Go back and look at the history of drugs that have met their secondary endpoints but failed their primaries, and see for yourself how the stock market reacted (and how many of those drugs ultimately were approved).
Improving sleep isn't going to reduce the mortality rate of Alzheimer's though.
It's a bonus, but AVXL will end up trading in the pennies if sleep is the only positive outcome from the P3 trials.
Bingo.
Improved sleep alone is not going to do anything to get this drug approved if the primary endpoint is memory retention. Maybe AVXL can pivot and try to market the drug as a safer alternative to Ambien, but the market will absolutely crush the stock price if the P3 trials come back showing memory loss isn't preserved, but sleep is improved.
Shelf is absolutely not needed for future growth and development. That is what a partnership would accomplish, in addition to giving AVXL credibility and helping to keep these "shorts" people speak of at bay.
$250M is not a lot of money to be raising for serious expansion plans. It costs much more than that to bring a drug to market, even with grants and other sources of funding.
I agree that the price is set to go up in time, absent poor data results which is still a very real possibility that is keeping many on the sidelines for the time being. That said, the timing is suspicious because it doesn't take much effort to file a shelf registration and if the plan isn't to use it right away, why put the brakes on a nice little run on the stock price?
If the plan is to use it right away, diluting at these prices is unfavorable to shareholders if the value is what everyone claims it is -- and supports the notion that those preferred shares were more necessary to circumvent the 100M A/S than to prevent a hostile takeover.
I don't think sleep is as important as many here seem to think it is.
Just a year ago nobody was talking about AVXL and sleep.
It's a nice side effect, perhaps, but nothing more.
Memory retention is the real goal. If that happens because of better sleep, great. But the market will deem AVXL a complete failure if the P3 trials show only better sleep, but also a steady decline in cognition retention.
2s are certainly a possibility but I have the bottom support a bit higher than that, around the $3.04 mark give or take a nickel.
Anyone here still thinking that this shelf offering is good news?
I don't believe there is a coordinated plan anymore. I think for the most part AVXL is off the radar of most organized cabals. When was the last time Adam Feurerstein, or Tim Sykes, or Nate Michaud, or Jean Fonteneau, etc. even mentioned AVXL to their followers?
What makes you think that this isn't individual retail sellers? The volume suggests that it is. The price dropping steadily as opposed to the "flash crashes" in past years suggests that it is.
It seems just as likely to me that panic selling by retail holders is the reason for the price drop as it is some coordinated effort by professional short traders. If there is evidence to the contrary I'd love to see it.
I don't think there is a cabal (anymore) but the short answer to your question is that shorts have no influence over the outcome of AVXL's long-term future. If the drug is successful in its P3 trials, shorts will have no choice but to cover. And the reality is that nobody knows when the revelation of data will happen so not being invested means taking a risk that you miss out on the squeeze if you truly believe AVXL has the goods.
This isn't manipulation. It's response to a news event that, while not formally publicized by the company, has leaked to the point where it may as well be released in an 8-K.
It's no different than when the stock price was going up in response to the Russell addition. That news wasn't publicized by the company either but everyone knew it was the reason for the recent jump from $2.50 to $4. The increase wasn't manipulation, it was response to a news-driven event.
It's important to not to jump to the "manipulation" conclusion every time the stock drops. Manipulation is like pornography, you know it when you see it. The takedown in November 2015 from $15 to $2 was blatant manipulation because it was easy to trace who was shorting the stock and encouraging followers to do the same. One could argue though that the price never should have jumped from $2 to $15 on such preliminary data.
If you think there is collusion going on behind the scenes, I would be interested to know who specifically is doing the colluding. The "cabal" isn't specific enough -- who exactly is a part of this cabal? I sold a ton of stock not too long ago in the run-up, does that make me part of the cabal? Or is it possible that the reason for the current drop in price is that many people are afraid of how much lower this might drop and want to lock in profits while they can?