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weird, I have never had a order to buy at ask not filled. Never. I had one situation were it looked that way, it was cleaned up after close, I was traded thru and it was cleaned up without my intervention.
titlewave cash flow
you said "that is quite a jump in revenues"
revenues is not a cash flow value, that is why cash flow is measured, reported and considered by investors somewhat seperately. If revenue and cash-flow were the same thing, nobody would talk about cash-flow.
tkc is in the ball park, cash flow b.e. is about 12-13m give or take. If Wave was to ink a 5 m deal on top of 8m in regular billings, that would be $13m ... cash-flow b.e.
Most of the 5m would not show up as revenue, again an accounting measure distinct from cash-flow.
Indeed, if Wave was paid a billion dollars tomorrow, most of it would not show up as revenue for some time ... but a billion dollars is still a billion dollars.
It seems pretty clear that Wave believes they had $8-10m in new billings above SMB and bundling back in Q4-Q1 and they claim it did not pan out in part because of drive availability, and they just claimed that those deals are still on track, and that they expect to close them Q3ish. So, if they close this $8-10m in new large orders in Q3, they will only book 1-2m in revs from it.. but 8-10m is plenty of new cash for cash-flow break-even.
I agree, if those deals do not close, cash-flow break-even is highly highly unlikely. They believe those deals will close, so they think they will achieve cash-flow break-even.
Its pretty simple.
barge, Wave writes software designed to run on MSFT platforms ...
is that what you mean by intertwined? I agree that involves intertwining, but is it not at the "duh" level that you speak?
returnatlast:
know this
MSFT will never license a thing from Wave, NEVER.
wavedreamer, my lay understanding is that
there is a drive resident encryption key (MEK?), and a user/network key to unlock the key (unlock the drive key)(KEK?).
It is the latter key, the user/network key that I think folks are speaking towards in SED key management. Without this the SEDs turn into enterprise bricks with some regularity one could imagine.
And, is not the deliberate ability to brick an SED (i.e. security) the ability to delete the key? So we have delete key, restore key, backup key ... key management. How does a drive resident encryption key get one out of the key management business?
EDIT Orda, you may be correct,
Or you may not be correct, i.e. it may BE good:
The quotes:
bspence, a very sensible guess IMO.
The managers at the likes of IWM and the MMs are likely familiar with one another. I'm kinda expecting that as well ... in the absence of such an arrangement it would mean a serious SP crash.
Perhaps my doom of the 60s is a bit much, and this weeks activity seems to suggest I'm being gloomy.
One possibility is that a big Fund-long>MM-short transfer could change the liquidity picture for WAVX, making retail shorting more broadly available and generally dampening short-term price swings with a significant increase in retail float.
bspence,
I think I say that previously, to me your argument misses on details. Yes, the only way to cover a short is to buy ... and institutions need ump millions of shares on top of the TPM which I expect to represent plenty of shares for sale for any buyer-to-cover.
Buy a share, sell a share, short a share, cover a share ... I don't see how Russel on short interest is somehow more potent in the opposite direction - in covering.
If Russel on Russel off is a quid pro quo, then is all washes and returns to pre-Russel standard short levels ... I just don't see the "greater buying pressure than selling pressure argument".
My money is on 60-70cents. Pure and simple.
hnstabe, you make an excellent point,
Q1 is the first full Q under the new Dell deal ... that is the baseline, the NEW baseline. I had so baked in old Dell deal numbers that Q1 was just a crazy dot from hell on my trout filled dual purpose smoking rack/ abacus.
There is reason under the Q1 numbers. It is a combination of the New Dell Deal, and obvious softness in SMB/new billings. Folks can wag a finger at Thailand on this, and since the entire industry is saying so I am willing to play along. Then one adds the whole merger/acquisition retrain/retool and one has a third point.
1. New Dell causes revenue drop.
2. Wave's primary value plus is in the SED niche, hurt by Thailand.
3. Growing pains retrain/redirect/retool.
It would be great if a CEO could lay out a 1 2 3 .... but I digress.
So on addressing those three points, SKS only hinted towards optimism on one of these, specifically point 3, that he expected to see the new and improved WAVX/SFND product portfolio to see real gains in Q2.
ATM usage so far backs that up.
Points 1 and 3, both SED dependent and OEM partner dependent would only contribute to the new baseline.
Wave did a dismal in many ways irresponsible job of communicating the New Dell, its near term consequence, and has yet to articulate it potential longer term benefits.
Again, it would be great if the CEO could articulate these things.
It seems the CEO is incapable of reporting bad news and communicating a silver lining. The CEO simply prefers to distract and avoid.
It hurts Wave.
Skimoor, that wouldn't suprise me
(85 cent base), but my bets are there is fair fair bit of business between now and the end of the month (Russel, an ATM pulse), but on the flip side, I figure Wave will be buying the drinks at the ASM, and maybe they have a pocket PR to put out in the lead up to ASM for some talking points and feel good pre-ASM buzz that may alleviate a Russel+ATM end of month fade.
TWT.
Russel and Short interest
short interest seems largely unchanged, hanging at around 9m shares,
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/wavx/short-interest
and Russel reconstitution will likely generate about 4m shares of sell side pressure.
I have no experience in whether that large short interest taken on when WAVX moved to Russel will simply net out, leaving about 3-4m short when folks get out of bed June 26th (or after the next bimonthly short interest report, including the ATM pile on below)).
Seeing that 250k is a little low for the WAVX treasury (based on my make-it-up numbers) I expect one more release from the ATM before the close of the month AND I expect the the funds to unwind only in the few days between Jun22 and Jun 25 (yes, I know, they can do it whenever, but that is what I expect). I more or less expect the ATM to "pile on" in the conversion of institutional divestment and short covering.
It seems continued downward pressure on SP is the most rational interpretation absent a significant material event which is as likely as it is unlikely.
Looking at the volume and the gap to close and the claims for dry powder and my special relationship with a Ouija board ... I'm thinking SP in the .60-70 range (with the ATM dumping about a million shares into the fun).
That is a price I expect will perhaps form the bottom.
hnstabe,
the math is pretty simply ... for every new SED it pays off the loss of royalties on 10 ESC bundles. I suspect it will take a while before SEDs sales increase enough t close the gap. If, e.g. Wave bundles 4m units of ESC per Q, then they need to move 400k SEDs to close the gap.
Certainly if/when SEDs take over, that ratio becomes a wipe-out.
As far as the fingerprint etc stuff, I don't recall what the royalty is on those, I believe some of that capability was in ETS/ESC and it seems to have been peeled off and given its own number and the component of that is +285 (I suspect this will be around 75 cents a machine, but don't ask me how I got there ... its proprietary)
The ATM and c.f.b.e.
I’ve got as reported totals
As of Mar 26 1.1m shares for $2.4m
Then as of May 8 (inclusive of above) 2.1m shares for $3.9m
Then a statement it had only been used once from May 16 or so back to Apr 1 … the obvious pulse date was Apr 11 where volume exceeded normal volume by 1m shares, the prevailing price would have netted $1.5m
Then another more modest end of May vol spike about 400k shares in excess of normal, the prevailing price presumably netting 440k.
That’s a total of 3.5m shares for proceeds of $5.8m
Freezing expenses and applying a 15% growth in licensing from Q1 to Q2 gets them to the end of Q2 with some 250k in the bank.
There has been no vol spike since May 29 (certainly perhaps they are shilling 10k shares daily, but the vol speaks towards the possibility of little more).
Point is if one allows for the 15% growth of licRev, then they can push to next Q, and should next Q also net another 15% growth in LicRev, and expenses stay flat, then they need an additional $4-5m on top of the back to back 15% bottom up LicRev growth to reach c.f.b.e. on Q3.
I expect BP to come in for another ¼ of their machines for another 1.7m late Q3 … getting the additional order requirement … the unknown deal into the $3m range (BP reportedly seated 18k of their anticipated 80k seats, the rest for regular upgrade cycle).
If BP comes thru and if 15% Q2 and 15% Q3 happens on SMB, then one measely DoD “operational” purchase of 40k seats squeezes Wave thru to a perhaps c.f.b.e. Q3.
That is hardly super ambitious, and certainly within the realm of SpragueSpeak “can be c.f.b.e. Q3.
That’s kinda what I see going forwards.
I don't see a SP spike out of that, but I would figure at least some stability and appreciation, nothing crazy, back towards 2.
go-kite on "can be"
"The fact that he is comfortable saying break even again tells me he has conferred with management, the BOD, and hashed it out, got the green light and pigs would fall from the sky if it didn't happen."
SKS saying Q3 can be cash-flow positive is simply saying a large enterprise/gov order can happen in Q3.
It can. Miles away from a forecast, and on that I do not think he has learned a thing.
Quite simply, what he said is true. A large order could happen in Q3. And if it does they will be cash-flow +.
So what. I had the same informatin a day, a week, a month and a year ago.
That wasn't Sprague speak, it was non-speak.
fair enough,
I assume the customization Wave performs belongs to Wave, and that the only likely customer is the one who asked for the customization.
If others ask for customization, I fully anticipate Wave can leverage whatever they learned in the last round to make the next round easier.
the site needs a sarcasm font. /e
I did not see the word "exclusive" in the 8k and Wave has never done an exclusive.
They may customize a core product (as they did for Dell), i nwhich case it is largely useless to others (unless HP wants the Dell brand plastered all over their product), but I am completely confidence that Samsung did not lock anybody out of Wave's ESC and TSS products.
price per unit unknown
which units will bundle unknown
with that in mind, I'm thinking $2-4m 2013
It would seem if there were a RAND (and there is) it would apply first and foremost to TSS. Necessarily vendor neutral.
alea, that is pretty much were my brain goes with it,
and for me at least it is no small matter. Obviously what and whether and who and how on 2.0 is a matter of interest, and I'be be happy for, uh, color, at the SHM on the 8k and actually who is building the 1.2 TSS so implied (or stated).
I long considered it to be a vulnerability of sorts, a piece better owned than partnered for. I guess different folks get excited about different things. And again, I don't see it in Wave's interest to make a ruckus about this, but it strikes me as rather valuable if it ultimately irons out that way.
awk, yes I know SI bought NTRU,
and part of why I could easily imagine a TSS phase-out. But then why buy NTRU??
Certainly they still ist TSS and middleware in the TC products section, but hey, if the TSS talent left, then perhaps with reason.
It doesn't get much attention (obviously) but Wave taking over the TSS is pretty important from my perspective. (There's some SHM chat stuff for those so inclined).
It is certainly the type of thing were Wave gets no benefit from making a big ruckus about it, but it is rather embedding.
awk,
no, somewhere I thought you reffed the notion that NTRU stopping 1.2 meant they were likely quitting on 2.0 as well (but I can't find it, so I probably dreamed it).
Certainly there is 2.0
My notion is/was, is NTRU bailing on 1.2 simply them choosing to no longer support that which they see as legacy in the near future ... or are they just getting out of the TSS layer all together.
Should Wave end up being the interop-TCG-TSS provider, while it is not bazillions, it is strategically rather valuable IMO. But that is all based on my inklings of little side port opportunities.
The builder of the stack has incumbent advantages in management, I would think, along with presumably the right to afford features to the stack that are proprietary and outside the standard spec.
awk, heavens no, but poop happens, and I don't know if suspending 1.2 means there is no 2.0 effort, and it seemed your language migrated from information (1.2) to speculation (2.0). If SI is tossing in the towel on TSS, then on that I am happier than most even bother with.
It gets back to, uh, side hooks and things for proprietary opportunities all in the context of a standards compliant top and bottom, the hooks being more valuable than the few pennies a chip, but a few pennies in all non-Inf chips is still real.
It is definitely important information. You'll just have to forgive me my caution.
barge, FWIW, the NTRU TSS sheet you posted has a doc date of Mar2011.
I have no idea if what awk is saying is, or it the 8k can just as easily mean that they are bundling a licensed CTSS from NTRU, or where the source is for NTRU freezing TSS development (it seems one could freeze 1.2 because they are moving on, but I;m no engineer), but assuming awks goods are true, then that would be another infusion of the tendrils of Wave into these lower TC levels.
I had hoped Wave would buy NTRU years ago, but its not like they had the money back then.
So it looks like (although one cannot be sure) but it looks like Wave is trying to take over the NTRU TSS space. I have no idea how that sits with Secure Innovations. It would seem it would be a few pennies for every non-Inf chip out there.
I know this is just spots and dots,
but is it true that Wave is the only for profit company presenting, giving a plenary talk no less.
I agree, one cannot count mil chickens before they hatch, but Wave clearly has hooks into mil. Of course mil can clip those hooks in a heartbeat, but as the alternative is no hooks at all, I prefer hooks.
barge, you keep citing SKS as proof of SKS. Dude, you need to find somebody other than SKS to prove your SKSism.
"Q1 is on line with previous Qs"
that is SKS, find me a line, any line, an old line a new line ... make it work.
Otherwise, would you not consider seeking sources for quotation that are at least a little less embarrassing.
There is that 'world is going to end tomorrow guy' and there is SKS, and on statements ... seriously?? You go to something SKS said to substantiate an argument for anything?
SKS could tell me it is raining in Lee MA today, and ... I'll look it up myself thank you.
barge, you write:
"Wave needs a few home run PRs!!!! That's it! Bonuses, compensation, the Board of Directors, share price, why doesn't S. Sprague wear his tailored Boy Scout uniform at the CC....these issues are irrelevant, smallish, and dull."
I ask you, on e.g. "bonuses ... are irrelevant, " etc.
Is there any number out there (it was the point of my content) where a bonus might become relevant to you. $1 million?, $1 trillion?, 2% of the company? 20% of the company? 99% of the company?.
Your saying it isn't relevant ... when would it be? Once you've actually accepted that there might be a point where it is relevant (hypothetical of course) then whether it is currently relevant then comes on the table.
Where is the line barge? Step up barge, WHERE IS THE LINE?
barge, on the compensation thing
and shareholder activism ... I just don't think people really fathom what might be. I don't think people understand that Wave might be AAPL-QCOM-MSFT COMBINED!!! I'm upset that in my considering what Wave might be (like you), that they are indeed being underpaid.
Is there still time to get a shareholder item under part D "further items" to award the top execs a clean $billion in cash each.
It just seems sensible to me, because you know, they might be huge.
What bugs me is there are even those that would stop at a billion, really barge, when you think about it ... shouldn't it be a $trillion?
no doubt, Battle of the Bulge, Iwo Gima, but much much more so Antietam (loyalty to the end) ... but this is stock investing, not wars and battles, not heart and blood, this is a simple land,where one can judge safely ... and of course, throw some under the bus because the bus is in the end metaphorical.
Barge claims to worship these things, The SKS, The TCG and so on ... but the fact is, The Barge is mostly trapped by a requirement for black and white thought. The brage requires one is all in on everything, directors, bonuses, raises, crap just give them the company, 10%, 20% .... 50% hey whatever, YOU ARE THE GENIUS SKS, how bout you take 99%!!!! is that ok my lord???
Barge. Chill. Its ok to boot a couple of asses for their efforts and get somebody to ride SKS' back. Really, its ok.
barge, on a matter that you have not perhaps considered,
folks are allowed to vote on performance.
1% of the company was just minted away in the last month, and it did not even cover the bonuses to a few.
Surely, even in the apoxiated state only you may know, migrating 1% over and over (this is not payment off free cash-flow, this simply printing shares to hand 100% of the cash to a few)
Again barge, the last million shares of the ATM had nothing to do with funding Wave, Mobile or anything, those shares, those last million shares had one purpose (DO THE MATH) to pay bonuses and raises to a little cadre of folks with no skin in the game.
Seriously, wee those millon share to have anything to do with mobile, WEM, or anything, but they didn't ... it was simply to INCREASE bonuses and ... so the math
Seriously, the ATM is not providing Wave with any investment or development capital, it only pays the bonuses and raises to about 5-8 people (out of 260).
DO THE MATH
barge,
I would tighten up the use of the word "genius" just a tad.
Numerically, my cat completely schools SKS. He has skills, math, even the most elementary sort, is not one of his.
If one peruses his interaction with snackman, the CC, the various projections ... the stuff is absolutely idiotic.
He has skills. That is good. The ability to merge enthusiasm opportunity resources and REALITY require at least a casual understaning of e.g. a checkbook.
He has, measurably by his own statements nothing resembling even elementary skills in this matter. He has for every second of his life pulled out plastic and the rest happens. He has no idea how or why.
no barge, I will post about it anytime there is traction, other times it is censored and deleted, and then I don't bother, but it has been and continues to be a short coming of Wave. Pure and simple. As I said elsewhere, Wave could book a billion dollar order tomorrow, it would only allow for bigger train wrecks until they get something resembling to satisfactorily merge enthusiasm, opportunity, resources and REALITY. Sure, many will high-five a big deal and seep it away. It will suddenly no longer be "DD" for many. But DD is DD for some, not technical speculation regarding TC (which is good stuff, but not DD).
barge none of those folks made payroll week-to-week dumping shares at sub buckfifty. Your comparisons stop the second one affords themselves a glimpse of abject reality. They would be fun if they had merit.
One can compare a drowning man to Michael Phelps, the illiterate to Shakespeare, or me to Brad Pitt ... doing so just makes one look out of touch with even the most obvious truths.
barge, it is well known you are firmly in the uber-genious praise-SKS camp. Very well. Capability in some areas does not mean capability in all. He is currently making payroll by shilling shares at under a buckfifty (much of that payroll being his own of course).
Explain to me (without changing the subject or waxing about "positioning") the genius in funding Wave on a day to day basis by printing shares for sub-$1.5??
The whisperwire is organizational stuff perhaps/likely from June on, broader departmental wide stuff apparently rumored to no sooner than 2013 budget. NIST specs have been pushed a bit, I think Sept for a final as I recall, as they have chosen to require more. In 'organizational' I am saying mission critical units choosing to do what they need to do. Given DoDs 7m seat footprint I don't know if an organization in 100 seats or 100,000 seats. I'm thinking 10-20k here, 10-20k there.
This largely mirrors what I've been guessing, never thought a switch-flip scale thing could percolate through that rapidly without some power plants going down.
All told, my cash-flo-ometer is looking for about, very roughly, 100k seats from any combination of large enterprise, gov/DoD. Curiously if these things played out Q3, the company would likely book a profit Q4 (the hole grail of cult-left) ... but be cash-flo negative Q4 (what I care about and what I believe undermines current SP more than horses, old BoD dudes, Lee-speak or pretty much anything else).
These rumors, particularly *.gov rumors need to be taken at a 1:10 ratio, the latter being the salt.
So its great fun for everybody. Cult left can bemoan moving goal-posts, cult-right can trumpet enhanced spec more completely 'requiring' Wave.
The flash in the pan to me is Souren. My "DD" on him was rather satisfactory, the things that come off his desk with is name on the bottom are lucid and focused, and Wave is moving more product in his zone than elsewhere. That dude may well make this company. All, of course, total snot-nosed in the basement speculation on my part. Souren doesn't yet strike me as a 'they don't get it' guy.
If Q2 numbers break meaningfully for EU pick-up in SMB, SFND cross-selling, and EU large orders ... then the company has found somebody for whom they may well consider expanding their purview.
Wow, haven't been here in a bit, a veritable explosion of slogans, advertising blips, and conclusions ... few to be afforded substantiation.
1. micro. good heavens man. I'm good with the enthusiasm, the randomness, and the willingness to throw an idea out there for some vetting. But throwing an idea out there and announcing conclusions are different matters. PLEASE try to take the time to tell the difference between a road and a car. A road is not competition to a car. That there is a road does not mean a certain car wins. Many build roads and many build cars. Some win some lose. But for heavens sakes you are into this for a decade plus ... KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A ROAD AND A CAR, or at least for the sake of humanity consider listening instead of relying solely on a predisposition to shoot hole in things no matter what they are.
2. I could not give a flying puke if folks at Wave are excited about scrambls. THEY DO NOT MATTER. Facebook sells transparent users. Wave obscures that. The media is in flux, there is space for almost anything. I hope folks at US Wave are still doing their jobs and not all sitting at their desks wrapped up in providing alpha feedback.
3. INTC is a mature capable company, they will move into (and have tried to many times) TC the second they see a window. They will make whatever they can proprietary, they will afford APIs as they require, they will eat TC is a millisecond if they find a window, a window they have sought for a decade and failed. Dismissing INTC is only for fools. Disclaimer, I am long INTC.
4. The Wave gambit continues to be one of massive spending on the hopes of liquidity through *.mil *.gov,a very very risky venture. The light? The parachute? Souren. Strikes me as a bloke that can at once speak, walk, and not get those two components of his anatomy hopelessly mangled upon one another.
not exactly,
I didn't say "now we are into 2013" I said I expect the Samsung-Wave ramp to begin in 2013.
I expect developments other than Samsung (which is comparatively recent) to manifest themselves this year.
ICBW, but that is what I believe.
It could end up being more or less than what I expect this year, but I expect this year to demonstrate more traction than last year.
Last year saw an increase in revs yoy of 38+%, I expect 2012 to show an increase in revs greater than that, how much is a crap shoot, but more than 38%.
Management has been somewhat consistently late in the last year, but not fundamentally off. BASF was later than expected, but did happen, BP was later than expected, but did happen. Other things are expected, and I expect they will happen. But I admit, things are pretty opaque right now.
Its very unclear what to make of the DoD pilots, the FBCB2 project, SFND cross-selling, presumably some relief in general SED availability and prices, the obvious potential for other large customers (perhaps only GM, BASF, and BP are interested in significant upgrades to the DAR security, but I doubt it), and it will be interesting to see what "relatively soon" means for the first Samsung products. Some combination of those things will emerge to accelerate top-line growth IMO.
Samsung and Wave.
The Samsung Wave relationship as announced only provides the following:
Samsung: “Samsung will provide reliable, competitive trusted computing security chips for our customers.”
Wave: “…this move will empower partners and customers with new, silicon-based means to provide trusted hardware on numerous platform types in the coming years.”
Gartner: “With billions of handhelds, tablets and slates in the hands of today's workforce, ensuring that these devices are known and trusted within the organization is paramount.”
The same day report on securitystockwatch.com provides the following:
Wave: “We look forward to providing Samsung's OEM customers the ability to turn on, manage and leverage the Trusted Platform Module with Wave's software, to deliver stronger security for end-users and better protection for their critical data.”
Wave did put up the you-tube demo of a Samsung tablet excerting proximty control over a portable SED (bluetooth or NFC, I can’t recall) and Wave was involved with the Samsung-NFC exhibit at CARTES and Wave has stated that a focus of there will be in securing “communication”.
On the matter of potential revenue SKS was asked at the CC if Samsung could rival or eclipse Dell as a revenue source and the answer was ‘absolutely’.
Given the nature and direction of Samsung’s efforts, and given the nature and direction of Samsung-Wave demos, and given the size of ther Samsung market, I’m inclined to think that Samsung eclipsing Dell as a reveue source is extremely likely.
I consider myself a pessimist on most assertion of things = money for Wave. I can see in a long far off world where some of these things may be Wave-managed clients (Chromebooks, and pretty much and similar TPM platform), but I cannot assemble a meaningful speculation of Wave making any money off such things in the forseeable future.
That is not the case with Samsung. I expect with all reasonable likelihood for revenues from Samsung to be significant for Wave, the timeline being the difficulty. Product evolution in the mobile space is remarkably rapid, and Samsung has a proven ability to beat deadlines, arrive early, and exceed expectations. But that still doesn’t say when.
I'm thinking by the end of summer there should be more information that would allow the formatin of a better opinion, so with that said, I’m thinking the Wave-Samsung ramp starts sometime n 2013. This will not be a trivial matter in revenue terms.
I expect the clarity will arrive in the form of a royalty/bundling 8-k for actual commercial products.
OT 24601,
If you are so inclined I have a question.
digspace@ymail.com